Investment Highlights - November sales: Domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export exceeded expectations. November heavy truck production reached 114,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +84.4% and +9.8% respectively. Wholesale sales were 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +65.4% and +6.6%. Terminal sales were 77,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +34.3% and +9.6%. Exports reached 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +44.0% and +0.7%. Overall industry inventory increased by 420 units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [2][14][17]. Industry Structure - In November, the performance of engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles. Terminal sales of engineering vehicles were 8,500 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +41.2% and +13.1%. Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +33.5% and +8.9%. The market share of engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles was 11.1% and 88.9% respectively, with engineering vehicle share increasing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, while logistics vehicle share decreased by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points [3][36]. Market Share Dynamics - In November, Foton's domestic sales share increased year-on-year, while the export shares of Jiefang and Foton rose month-on-month. The terminal sales market shares for November were 21.1% for Jiefang, 18.0% for Dongfeng, 16.9% for Heavy Truck, 11.0% for Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and 12.4% for Foton, showing changes compared to the full year of 2024 [4][16][53]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the top market share in the engine sector. In November, the market shares for Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai were 17.4%, 15.6%, 14.6%, 9.2%, and 11.1% respectively. Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, with year-on-year growth of +11.8% but a month-on-month decline of -7.1% [5][19][70]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance driven by the National IV policy. Recommendations include investing in China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, while also paying attention to the performance improvement potential of FAW Jiefang and Foton [7][18].

Core Insights - The heavy truck industry in November met the expectations of Dongwu Securities for domestic sales, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [1] - The total inventory coefficient for the industry in November was calculated at 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [1] - The company forecasts that wholesale sales of heavy trucks will reach approximately 115,000 units by December 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% [1] Sales Performance - November production of heavy trucks was 114,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 84.4% and a month-on-month increase of 9.8% [1] - Heavy truck wholesale sales in November reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 65.4% and month-on-month growth of 6.6% [1] - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [1] - Exports of heavy trucks in November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1] - The overall industry inventory increased by 4,200 units in November, with corporate inventory rising by 800 units and channel inventory increasing by 3,400 units [1] Industry Structure - In terms of usage, engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in November, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, showing year-on-year growth of 41.2% and month-on-month growth of 13.1% [2] - Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year growth of 33.5% and month-on-month growth of 8.9% [2] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in November was 25.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [2] Market Share - In November, the domestic market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), and others, with slight changes compared to the previous year [3] - For exports, Jiefang held a market share of 21.2%, showing an increase compared to the previous year [3] - Weichai maintained the highest market share in the engine segment at 17.4%, despite a decline compared to the previous year [4] - In November, Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [59]. Core Views - November sales data shows that domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [4][10]. - The overall industry performance in November indicates a positive trend, with significant year-on-year growth in production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [6][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 65.4% and 6.6%, respectively, surpassing expectations [2][17]. - Terminal sales for November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%, aligning with expectations [2][14]. - Export sales for November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.7%, exceeding expectations [2][17]. Market Structure - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for November was as follows: Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), Heavy Truck (16.9%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (11.0%), and Foton (12.4%) [5][34]. - In exports, the market share for November was: Jiefang (21.2%), Dongfeng (9.3%), Heavy Truck (45.2%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (16.2%), and Foton (5.7%) [5][36]. - The engine market share in November was led by Weichai (17.4%), followed by Cummins (15.6%) and Xichai (14.6%) [7][45]. Inventory Analysis - The total industry inventory in November increased by 0.42 million units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [18][44]. - Channel inventory saw an increase of 0.34 million units, while enterprise inventory rose by 0.08 million units [18][44]. Structural Insights - In terms of vehicle usage, November saw better performance in engineering vehicles compared to logistics vehicles, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, up 41.2% year-on-year [23]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 25.3% in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [26].

Investment Highlights - October sales: Production, wholesale, retail, and export all exceeded expectations. 1) Production: October heavy truck production was 104,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +78.4% and +2.6% respectively. 2) Wholesale: October heavy truck wholesale sales were 106,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +60.0% and +0.6% respectively. 3) Retail: October heavy truck terminal sales were 70,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +56.6% and -15.9% respectively. 4) Export: October heavy truck export sales were 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +43.8% and +4.8% respectively. 5) Inventory: October industry-wide inventory increased by 0.09 thousand units, with enterprise inventory decreasing by 0.23 thousand units and channel inventory increasing by 0.32 thousand units. The total inventory coefficient for October was calculated to be 1.8, which is considered reasonable [3][14][28]. Industry Structure - In terms of usage, October saw better performance for engineering vehicles compared to logistics vehicles. October engineering vehicle terminal sales were 7,400 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +63.0% and -14.9% respectively. Logistics vehicle sales were 62,600 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +55.9% and -16.0% respectively. The proportion of engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles in October was 10.5% and 89.5% respectively, with engineering vehicle proportion increasing by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month, while logistics vehicle proportion decreased by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points [3][36]. Market Share Dynamics - In the overall vehicle market, Foton's domestic market share increased year-on-year, while the export shares of Sinotruk, Foton, and Dongfeng also rose year-on-year. For October 2025, the domestic terminal sales market shares for Jiefang, Dongfeng, Sinotruk, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and Foton were 21.5%, 17.9%, 17.9%, 11.0%, and 13.8% respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -2.2, -2.8, -0.06, +0.7, and +3.4 percentage points respectively [4][50]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai held the top market share in the engine segment, with a slight increase month-on-month. In October, the terminal market shares for Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Sinotruk, and Yuchai were 20.5%, 17.1%, 14.7%, 9.3%, and 11.4% respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -7.0, -1.4, -0.4, +2.1, and -2.1 percentage points respectively [5][61]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In October, natural gas heavy truck sales reached 21,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +137.6% and -10.0% respectively. The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 30.1%, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 10.3 and 2.0 percentage points [3][37].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in October exceeded expectations in production, wholesale, retail, and export data, with a forecast of 10.3 million units in wholesale sales for November 2025, representing a 50% year-on-year increase [1][2]. Data Overview - Wholesale: In October, heavy truck wholesale sales reached 106,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +60.0% and +0.6% respectively, surpassing expectations [2]. - Terminal Sales: Heavy truck terminal sales in October were 70,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +56.6% and -15.9% respectively, also exceeding expectations [2]. - Exports: Heavy truck export sales in October totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +43.8% and +4.8% respectively, again surpassing expectations [2]. - Inventory: Channel inventory increased by 3,200 units, with the total industry inventory at 115,000 units [2]. Industry Structure - By usage, engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in October. Engineering vehicle terminal sales were 7,400 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +63.0% and -14.9% respectively [3]. - Logistics vehicle sales were 62,600 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +55.9% and -16.0% respectively [3]. - Natural gas heavy truck sales reached 21,000 units in October, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +137.6% and -10.0% respectively, achieving a penetration rate of 30.1% [3]. Market Share Dynamics - In the domestic market for October 2025, the terminal sales market shares for major manufacturers were as follows: Jiefang 21.5%, Dongfeng 17.9%, Shandong Heavy Industry 17.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.0%, and Foton 13.8% [4]. - In exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 18.8%, Dongfeng 9.3%, Shandong Heavy Industry 45.8%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 18.0%, and Foton 5.4% [4]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai held the top market share in the engine sector in October, with a terminal market share of 20.5%, showing a month-on-month increase [5]. - The terminal配套量 for Weichai was 14,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +64.7% and -11.0% respectively [5]. - By fuel type, Weichai's market shares for diesel and natural gas engines were 11.68% and 52.00% respectively, with notable changes from the previous year [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [61]. Core Views - October sales figures for the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations across production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports, with significant year-on-year growth [5][18]. - The overall industry inventory increased slightly, remaining at a reasonable level, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8 [19]. - The structural performance showed that engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in October, with a notable increase in natural gas heavy truck sales and penetration rates [24][27]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In October, the production of heavy trucks reached 104,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 78.4% and 2.6% respectively [5]. - Wholesale sales were 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [2][5]. - Terminal sales totaled 70,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 56.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5][15]. - Exports amounted to 33,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 43.8% and a month-on-month increase of 4.8% [5][18]. - The total inventory in the industry increased by 0.09 million units, with a current total of 115,000 units [19]. Market Structure - In terms of vehicle types, engineering vehicles had a terminal sales volume of 7,400 units, with year-on-year growth of 63.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.9% [24]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3 percentage points [27]. Competitive Landscape - In the wholesale market, the market shares for major manufacturers in October were as follows: Dongfeng (22.5%), Heavy Truck (26.5%), and Foton (13.1%), with Foton showing the largest year-on-year increase [32]. - In the terminal market, the market shares were: Dongfeng (17.9%), Heavy Truck (17.9%), and Foton (13.8%), with Foton showing a significant year-on-year increase [35]. - For exports, Heavy Truck led with a market share of 45.8%, followed by Dongfeng (9.3%) and Foton (5.4%) [37]. Engine Market - The engine market share in October was led by Weichai with 20.5%, followed by Cummins (17.1%) and Xichai (14.7%) [46]. - Weichai's terminal supply volume was 14,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 64.7% [51].

Key Points - The article highlights that September sales in the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations across production, wholesale, retail, and export metrics [3][12][15] - The overall production in September reached 101,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [3][15] - Wholesale sales for September were 106,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [3][12][15] - Retail sales (insurance registrations) reached 83,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [3][12][15] - Exports totaled 31,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [3][12][15] - The industry inventory decreased by 13,000 units in September, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [3][12][31] Industry Structure - In terms of vehicle usage, logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [3][15][37] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 28.2%, with sales of 23,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 148.8% [3][15][38] Market Share Dynamics - In the domestic market, the market share for major manufacturers in September was as follows: Jiefang 21.8%, Dongfeng 19.4%, Heavy Truck 16.6%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 14.0% [4][54] - For exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 18.4%, Dongfeng 4.7%, Heavy Truck 47.7%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 19.8%, and Foton 6.5% [4][57] Engine Market - Weichai maintained the highest market share in the engine segment at 19.4%, with a month-on-month increase [5][63] - The terminal matching volume for Weichai in September was 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [5][69] Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV emission standards, recommending investments in China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, while also noting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [6][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [57]. Core Views - The report highlights that September sales, including production, wholesale, retail, and exports, exceeded expectations, with significant year-on-year growth [5][10]. - The total production in September reached 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 69.0% and a month-on-month increase of 15.3% [5]. - The wholesale volume for September was 106,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The terminal sales for September were 83,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 91.5% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [5]. - Export sales in September amounted to 31,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a month-on-month increase of 15.2% [5]. - The overall inventory in September decreased by 13,000 units, with a total industry inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In September, the production, wholesale, retail, and export figures all surpassed expectations, with terminal sales showing a strong year-on-year growth of 91.5% [5][14]. - Cumulative terminal sales from January to September reached 569,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9% [14]. Market Structure - The report indicates that logistics vehicles outperformed engineering vehicles in September, with logistics vehicle sales at 74,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 92.8% [23]. - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for September was led by Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Heavy Truck, with respective shares of 21.8%, 19.4%, and 16.6% [36]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the leading market share in the engine segment, with a share of 19.4% in September, showing a slight increase from the previous month [43]. - The report notes that Weichai's terminal配套量 reached 16,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton Motor due to favorable policies [52].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the heavy truck industry showed a mixed performance in July, with significant growth in new energy trucks but a decline in natural gas trucks [1][2] - In July, the production of heavy trucks reached 81,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 17.4% [2] - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks in July were 85,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% [2] Group 2 - New energy heavy truck sales in July were 16,700 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 152% but a month-on-month decrease of 7.6%, with a penetration rate of 25.8% [1][2] - Natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, indicating a year-on-year decline of 21.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.0%, with a penetration rate of 21.8% [1][2] - The average price difference between oil and gas in July was 2.1 yuan, which is an increase of 0.3 yuan compared to June [1][2] Group 3 - The market share of major domestic manufacturers in July showed a recovery for Dongfeng and Foton in the domestic market, while the export market saw gains for Heavy Truck and Foton [3] - The market share for Weichai in July decreased to 16.8%, while Cummins held 17.8%, indicating a competitive shift in the engine market [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck sector driven by the implementation of National IV policies, recommending investments in China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [4]

Investment Highlights - July sales: Production and wholesale meet expectations, exports exceed expectations. 1) Production: July heavy truck production was 81,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +58.4%/-17.4%; 2) Wholesale: July heavy truck wholesale sales were 85,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +45.6%/-13.3%; 3) Terminal sales: July heavy truck terminal sales were 64,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +38.3%/-7.2%; 4) Exports: July heavy truck export sales were 27,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +25.4%/-7.5%; 5) Inventory: July heavy truck enterprise inventory decreased by 4,000 units, and channel inventory decreased by 6,400 units. Current industry total inventory is 133,000 units, which is at a reasonable level [2][14][11]. Industry Structure - New energy heavy trucks saw a month-on-month decline, while natural gas heavy trucks continued to decline. July new energy heavy truck sales were 16,700 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +152%/-7.6%, and new energy penetration rate was 25.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +11.6/-0.1 percentage points. July natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -21.7%/+4.0%, and natural gas penetration rate was 21.8%, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -16.7/-2.3 percentage points [14][38][41]. Market Share Dynamics - In July, Dongfeng and Foton's domestic sales share increased month-on-month, while heavy truck and Foton's export share also increased month-on-month. Terminal market share for July 2025 was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.8%, Heavy Truck 15.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 10.3%, and Foton 13.8%, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -2.4/+1.1/-1.9/+0.01/+3.5 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being +1.5/+0.8/-1.0/-0.8/+0.4 percentage points [3][51]. Engine Market Dynamics - Weichai's market share decreased month-on-month, falling to second place. In July, Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai's market shares were 16.8%, 17.8%, 15.6%, 8.9%, and 13.7%, respectively, with changes compared to the full year of 2024 being -10.7/-0.8/-0.5/+1.7/+0.2 percentage points, and month-on-month changes from June being -1.1/+0.5/+0.5/-0.3/-0.2 percentage points [4][61]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance under the stimulus of the National IV policy throughout the year. Recommendations include China National Heavy Duty Truck A/H and Weichai Power, with a focus on the performance improvement elasticity of FAW Jiefang and Foton [5][74].