来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月25日｜Kudotrade的分析师Konstantinos Chrysikos表示，尽管美联储的下一步政策行动存在更 广泛的不确定性，但地缘政治紧张局势仍在支撑金价。他表示："主导地缘政治背景的仍是中东的不稳 定和东欧重新出现的紧张局势。虽然外交渠道仍在探索俄乌潜在协议的轮廓，但仍难以取得有意义的进 展。"与此同时，Chrysikos表示，投资需求也显现出韧性，亚洲强劲需求推动黄金ETF资金持续流入。 随着美联储临近年内最后一次政策会议，投资者正密切关注延迟发布的美国经济数据，这些数据有望更 清晰地揭示劳动力市场趋势和通胀压力。 ...

华侨银行策略师表示，潜在的干预措施不太可能扭转日元的广泛贬值趋势，不过可能会减缓其下跌速 度。Frances Cheung和Christopher Wong在一份报告中写道，财政政策转变、货币政策延迟和地缘政治不 确定性共同导致日元走软。有关干预的言论甚嚣尘上，日本财务大臣上周表示，官员们对日元单边、快 速的贬值感到担忧。这些分析师称："我们认为，如果我们确实看到日元再度急剧走软，逼近158-160日 元区间，那么逆风干预的风险是真实存在的。"但他们补充说，要让美元兑日元的趋势逆转，决策者将 需要展现出财政纪律以恢复信誉。日本央行也需要恢复政策正常化。美元走软也会有所帮助。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

金价在突破每盎司4000美元大关后，全球知名投资机构瑞银再次释放积极信号，看好黄金未来走势。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）在11月21日发布的最新报告中，将2026年年中黄金目标价从之前的每盎司4200美元上调至4500美元，涨幅达7.14%。 同时，瑞银将上行目标价从4700美元上调至4900美元，下行目标维持在3700美元不变。 这意味着瑞银认为，从现在到2026年年中，黄金仍有超过12%的潜在上涨空间。 01 金价表现强劲 黄金无疑是2025年表现最亮眼的资产类别之一。 今年以来，国际金价涨幅已接近60%，近期价格虽高位震荡，但仍稳定在每盎司4000美元以上。 10月份，黄金曾飙升至每盎司近4400美元的历史高点，随后回落至4000美元以下。 在最新的报告中，瑞银分析师指出，"回调已经暂时到位，在技术因素之外，我们认为没有抛售的根本原因。潜在需求仍然强劲"。 02 多重因素推动上涨 瑞银此次上调金价预期，并非凭空而来，而是基于一系列支撑黄金上涨的利好因素。 美联储降息预期是其中的关键因素。瑞银在报告中明确指出，美联储预期降息、实际收益率下降，将推动2026年黄金需求进一步上升。 实际收益率下降会 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月19日电 本周伊始，国际现货金价震荡企稳。尤其是周一（11月18日），国际金价盘 中跌破4000美元关口后企稳回升，日涨0.54%。随着金价日K线走出带有长下影线的小阳线形态，短期 暂时守稳4000美元整数，预计或将维持震荡反复行情。 基本面上分析来看，美国政府停摆结束已告一段落，美联储降息预期降温成为抑制当前金价的最大影响 因素。近期，美联储官员的表态显示内部分歧进一步加深，美联储降息概率从早期的80%以上降至60% 左右，而随着多位美联储官员先后发表鹰派表态，市场对12月降息的预期进一步降低，特别是美联储副 主席杰斐逊明确表示"进一步降息需要缓慢推进"之后，市场对12月降息的押注一度降至40%左右。目前 虽有部分美联储官员仍然支持降息，但或仍将是"风险管理式"的预防性降息。 与此同时，地缘政治方面再现不确定性，特朗普暗示可能扩大在拉丁美洲的军事行动范围，这一表态可 能推升市场的避险需求。 综合而言，降息预期继续对短期金价形成压制作用，而地缘局势的紧张限制了金价的下行空间。从基本 面看短期金价将继续维持震荡横盘格局。不过，部分央行持续增持黄金，全球去美元化的货币重构背景 没 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the long-term upward trend of copper prices driven by three main factors: the commodity currency logic, structural supply shortages, and new demand dynamics, while also discussing the recent price pullback and future marginal driving conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Copper Price Surge - Commodity currency logic: The global monetary system's credit challenges and major central banks' large-scale easing have led to strong inflation expectations, making copper's "commodity currency" attribute a dominant price driver over its "industrial commodity" attribute [4][10]. - Structural supply shortages: Factors such as "policy-induced stockpiling," "mine production cuts," and "catalytic accidents" have created significant supply pressures, making it easy for demand increases to lead to substantial price hikes [4][28]. - New demand dynamics: The current copper price increase is driven not only by supply tightening but also by significant demand growth from AI computing power, global energy infrastructure reconstruction, and emerging technology sectors, reshaping the long-term supply-demand landscape for copper [4][29]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Price Pullback - The relative tightening of global dollar liquidity is the main tail risk affecting copper prices, with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrawing dollar funds from risk assets since October, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index [5][37]. Group 3: Future Marginal Driving Conditions - The medium to long-term supply-demand gap for copper is predictable, with the largest marginal variables coming from macroeconomic factors that will influence copper prices from the demand side [6][34]. - The continuation of the commodity currency logic is crucial, as the market's perception of physical asset attractiveness remains strong amid expectations of global liquidity easing [34]. - The market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are significant, as they can define recovery or recession scenarios [36][37]. - The gradual reduction of risks in U.S.-China relations may also influence copper prices positively, as recent negotiations have led to a decrease in demand risk [40].

Market Overview - Global markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with Asian markets leading the decline. The South Korean stock market fell by 2.4%, the Nikkei index dropped by 1.7%, and the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.8% [2]. European markets also faced losses, with France's CAC 40 down by 1.3% and Germany's DAX down by 1.6% [2]. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures recorded the largest single-day drop since October 10, when Trump threatened 100% tariffs [2]. Market Sentiment - The recent market decline is characterized as a "headless drop," not triggered by a single news event but rather by accumulated negative sentiment [2]. Several Federal Reserve officials made conflicting statements, leading to increased uncertainty among investors who had previously anticipated a rate cut in December [2]. This uncertainty has prompted a defensive stance among investors, resulting in a withdrawal from the market [2]. Expert Warnings - Prominent figures in finance have issued warnings about the market's valuation. At a high-profile financial summit in Hong Kong, several Wall Street leaders reached a rare consensus, cautioning that the stock market could decline by more than 10% in the next 12 to 24 months [2]. Mike Gitlin, CEO of Capital Group, which manages $3 trillion in assets, noted that most investors view the current U.S. stock market as "between reasonable and overpriced," with few considering it "cheap" [2]. Market Risks - Ted Pick from Morgan Stanley echoed similar sentiments, stating that the market has risen too much and is now facing risks from policy errors and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, remarked that the most extreme market behaviors often occur at the peaks of bull markets and the troughs of bear markets, suggesting that the current market is deep into a bull phase [3]. Upcoming Earnings Reports - Attention is turning to upcoming earnings reports from major companies. If AMD's earnings report is interpreted negatively by the market, it could indicate a shift to a defensive investment mode. Conversely, if AMD performs well and boosts the AI sector, it may lead to a temporary rebound in the market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by a tight supply-demand balance, supported by global monetary easing, enhanced resource strategic positioning, and the resonance of old and new industrial transformations [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a relatively independent performance due to structural supply-demand contradictions and the overlapping demands of old and new industries [1] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are gaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - In the small metals sector, strategic resources like lithium and rare earths are experiencing sustained demand growth in the context of the energy transition [1] - Gold maintains its allocation value as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Information - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects 60 listed companies involved in the entire non-ferrous metal industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The index has a high weight distribution in sub-sectors such as gold, rare earths, and lithium, while also maintaining good industry diversification [1] - The index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of listed companies in China's non-ferrous metals industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a high-level correction, with a weekly decline of 2.65%, closing at $4003.23 per ounce, despite a 3.76% increase in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices was attributed to a reduction in the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing trade tensions and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% but indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, leading to a shift in market expectations [2][3]. - The market anticipates that the probability of a December rate cut has decreased from 83% to 65% following the Fed's recent statements [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, making private sector data crucial for assessing labor market and inflation trends [3]. - Important upcoming data releases include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes, and consumer confidence surveys, which will influence market expectations for future Fed policy [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have contributed to a decline in gold prices, with gold dropping nearly $500 from its recent high [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and South America, continue to provide some support for gold prices, as traditional hedging against uncertainty remains relevant [5][6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $4030-$4060 per ounce, with key resistance at $4090-$4115 per ounce; support levels are at $3950-$3900 per ounce and key support at $3800-$3750 per ounce [6]. - Domestic gold futures have shown significant volatility, with resistance seen at 930-950 CNY per gram and support at 900-890 CNY per gram [6].

Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Venezuela - U.S. President Trump has not yet decided whether to attack ground targets in Venezuela, despite reports suggesting imminent military action [2] - The Pentagon has increased military deployments in the Caribbean to the largest scale in 30 years, with a target list prepared for potential strikes [2] - Venezuela has been accused by its government of U.S. intentions to instigate regime change through military threats [2] Group 2: Oil Market Reaction - The oil market reacted quickly to the news, with WTI crude oil prices nearing $61.40 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.3% [2] - Brent crude oil for January rose above $65.10 per barrel, with a daily increase of 1.2%, although gains later narrowed [2] Group 3: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong demand from ETFs and central banks amid economic uncertainty [3] - Gold has increased over 53% this year, reaching a recent high of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, before retreating by over 8% [3] - The report highlights potential downward risks for gold prices, including investor shifts to other asset classes and central banks reducing gold reserves [3] Group 4: Shipping Index Trends - The European shipping index futures experienced a decline of 2.54% after reaching a peak of 1,950 points, influenced by airlines lowering spot rates to attract cargo [4] - The index had been rising since mid-October, supported by improved macro sentiment and expectations of rising spot rates [4][5] - Analysts note that the current trading logic for the shipping index revolves around strong expectations versus weak realities, with supply and demand dynamics creating volatility [6] Group 5: Future Outlook for Shipping - Short-term macroeconomic benefits, capacity adjustments, and multiple price increase expectations are likely to support the shipping index [7] - The market anticipates a potential rise in rates in late November, but the actual improvement in cargo volumes will be crucial for sustaining price increases [7] - Analysts recommend monitoring shipping schedules and airline loading rates to manage risks associated with potential price adjustments [7]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD's Global Investment Trends Monitor report indicates a 3% decline in global foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2025, continuing a two-year trend of low investment levels [1] - The decline is primarily driven by developed economies, where cross-border mergers and acquisitions fell by 18% [1] - In contrast, developing economies showed better overall performance, with stable capital inflows [1] Regional Performance - Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a 12% increase in capital inflows [1] - Developing Asian countries saw a 7% growth in capital inflows [1] - Africa faced a significant decline, with capital inflows dropping by 42% [1] Investment Climate - High borrowing costs and economic uncertainty continue to pressure investments in industrial and infrastructure sectors [1]