Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw the exhaustion of previous positive factors, leading to a continued decline in rubber prices. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, with traders rotating and restocking, and tire factories making necessary restocks. The futures market maintained a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the downward trend. The enthusiasm of inventory holders to offer prices was average, and downstream restocking was coming to an end, with low inquiry enthusiasm and only moderate restocking at low prices, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the increasing output in the producing areas, combined with the decline in futures and spot prices, has led to a slight weakening of raw material prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has affected tapping operations, with fresh latex output hindered. Due to poor orders and profit margins, local processing factories have limited enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse has continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments have arrived at the port and been concentrated in storage, with the inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Previously, the orders of downstream tire factories were gradually shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels this week to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory, with overall operating rates making small adjustments. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will significantly drag down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's previous positive factors were exhausted, with rubber prices falling. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the futures market was weakly volatile. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the decline. Downstream restocking was ending, and trading was dull [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices weakened slightly, while Hainan's fresh latex output was affected by weather. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate. Tire enterprises' operating rates were slightly adjusted, and some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15150 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.42%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.1% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of September 26, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 15 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 24, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, an increase of 920 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons, an increase of 303 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 24, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 24, the 20 - rubber basis was 847 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.8 (- 0.82) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 24, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Imports**: According to customs data, in August 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Operating Rates**: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain their previous operating levels [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 天然橡胶市场周报 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场原料及宏观驱动减弱，胶价走跌。进口胶市场报盘下跌，套利盘平 仓出货，轮胎厂逢低补货。国产天然橡胶现货市场重心下调，美联储降息不及预期，宏观情绪降 温，现货市场报盘下调，交投谨慎，实单跟进有限。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区天气扰动减少，胶水上量逐步恢复正常，原 料价格暂稳；海南产区降水扰动减弱，割胶作业有所恢复，岛内原料供应环比增量，虽未来将受 到台风天气影响，但受制于订单及利润空间一般，当地加工厂对原料补库情绪谨慎。近期青岛港 口库存延续降库，降幅幅度较上期稍有缩窄，其中保税库去库幅度大于预期，一般贸易库出现小 幅累库。下游大多补标胶为主，带动保税库提货量增加，去库幅度超预期，短时随着下游逐渐提 货到厂，一般贸易库存存去库预期。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market gradually weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. The offer price of imported rubber rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down compared to the previous week. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for domestic natural rubber significantly increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market warmed up [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, local rainfall has affected tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in new rubber supply [9]. - Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the decline rate has widened compared to the previous period. However, as tire manufacturers' risk - aversion sentiment towards high prices rises, the decline rate of general trade inventory may narrow [9]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased. Most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule next week to stock up inventory around the "National Day" and make up for previous order gaps [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. Imported rubber prices rose and then fell, while domestic rubber trading warmed up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply in Yunnan is increasing, and in Hainan, rainfall affects tapping. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing, but the decline in general trade inventory may narrow. Tire enterprise capacity utilization has increased and is expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,300, and the nr2511 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 3.09% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell by 4.42% [14]. - **Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 [24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, a decrease of 9,290 tons from the previous week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, an increase of 202 tons from the previous week [29]. - **Spot Market** - **Price**: As of September 11, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 11, the 20 - rubber basis was 629 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton from the previous week; the non - standard basis was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [41]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of September 11, the field glue price in Thailand was 56.2 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 (+0.15) Thai baht/kg. As of September 12, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.4 US dollars/ton from the previous week [44]. - **Domestic**: As of September 11, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [47]. - **Import**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [50]. - **Inventory**: As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66% [54]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [58]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [61]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [64]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information about the options market analysis is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong support at the raw material end, and rubber prices continued to rise. However, the trading sentiment in the market was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand for replenishment. In the short term, the inventory at Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the overall capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises will increase, but the increase may be limited [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material end of the natural rubber market had strong support, and rubber prices continued to rise. The import rubber market offers increased, but factory purchases were limited. The futures market was volatile, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted with the market. The trading sentiment was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand for replenishment [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the raw material supply pressure remains high. In Hainan, the weather is good, and tapping operations are underway, but local processing plants have low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials due to limited profit margins. The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. The demand from downstream tire enterprises is relatively moderate. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan this week, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase, but some enterprises still have production control plans this month [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.93% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 3.22% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 40, and the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of 20 - rubber was - 45 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 165,730 tons, a decrease of 12,910 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 46,368 tons, an increase of 706 tons from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 4, the price of state - owned full - latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 4, the basis of 20 - rubber was 454 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 980 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 4, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.8 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 52.05 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 5, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.4 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 4, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [47]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [51]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Production**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - No relevant content provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. In the import rubber market, the quoted prices moved up, with high buying and replenishment sentiment among traders and strong actual order transactions. In the futures market, prices were strongly volatile. The spot quotes of domestic natural rubber followed the upward adjustment of the futures market, but the downstream inquiry atmosphere was not high, and market transactions were cautious with light actual order transactions [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply remains tight due to weather interference, and purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, local precipitation has slowed down the recovery of raw material supply, and local processing plants are still competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased at a larger month - on - month rate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and storage of overseas goods have decreased month - on - month, while the procurement sentiment of downstream tire enterprises is positive, and warehouse shipments are better than expected. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operation was stable this week, but some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The equipment operation of full - steel tire sample enterprises was stable, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises reduced production at the end of this week due to end - of - month maintenance, which also affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15650 - 16200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market had positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. Import rubber market quotes moved up, with strong actual order transactions. The futures market was strongly volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot quotes followed the upward adjustment, but downstream transactions were cautious [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has tight raw material supply due to weather, and Hainan has slow supply recovery due to precipitation. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing, with reduced overseas arrivals and high downstream procurement. In the tire industry, semi - steel tire enterprises' capacity utilization is affected by maintenance, and full - steel tire enterprises also face some production reduction due to maintenance [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15650 - 16200, and the nr2510 contract between 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.5% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - standard rubber rose by 1.48% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not summarized in the text. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - standard rubber contracts 10 - 11 was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 29, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; 20 - standard rubber warehouse receipts were 45,662 tons, an increase of 828 tons from last week [26]. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis**: As of August 28, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Standard Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of August 28, the 20 - standard rubber basis was 354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Thai Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 28, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.45 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 50.7 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 29, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 35.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Prices**: As of August 28, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [41]. Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons, a decrease of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [49]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% from June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [59]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing decreased, while downstream tire companies had a positive purchasing sentiment, and warehouse shipments were better than expected. - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased, but this week, it may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall orders. Some enterprises may adjust production schedules or conduct maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. - The RU2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short - term, and the NR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 132,930 lots, up 1,723 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 57,206 lots, up 2,876 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,531 lots, up 3,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,221 lots, up 1,111 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 178,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,655 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 975 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,873 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 357 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.55 Thai baht/kg, up 1.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.37 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, up 0.32 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.62%, down 0.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.34%, up 0.21 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.71%, up 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.7%, up 0.21 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of August 24 - 30, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decline of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decline of 1.28%. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rainy weather in the production areas continues to affect the release of new rubber, the raw material trend is strong, and the cost support is strong. There is still a bullish sentiment in the market. However, according to Longzhong, downstream enterprises may control production in late August, and the de - stocking speed of spot inventory is expected to slow down, which may suppress the price rebound. Under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the short - term natural rubber price will maintain a range - bound consolidation [80][81]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Cambodia's rubber production in the first 7 months of 2025 reached 179,198 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. In July, the production was 36,855 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. The latex export volume decreased by 15.4% to 147,071 tons, but the domestic consumption increased by 76% to 64,978 tons [5]. - Malaysia's natural rubber production in the first half of 2025 decreased by 0.4% to 163,044 tons. In June, the export volume decreased by 25.3% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the domestic consumption decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. - In July 2025, China's passenger vehicle production and sales were 229.3 million and 228.7 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and 9.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 124.3 million and 126.2 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic and foreign markets continued to rise synchronously. On August 15, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15905 yuan/ton, 12815 yuan/ton, 174 cents/kg, and 319.5 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 2.28%, 1.83%, 1.52%, and 0.66% [10][11]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - On August 15, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 1005 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.50% and a year - on - year increase of 36.19%. The 01 - 05 month spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15.79% and a year - on - year increase of 48.39% [20]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads of RU01 - NR01, RU01 - BR01, NR01 - TSR20 01, and RU01 - Tokyo RSS3 01 were 3090 yuan/ton, 4075 yuan/ton, 396.45 yuan/ton, and 292.22 yuan/ton respectively [23][24]. - The spreads of imported rubber to RU decreased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads of Thai mixed rubber - RU01, Malaysian mixed rubber - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 1255 yuan/ton, - 1305 yuan/ton, - 1005 yuan/ton, and - 3486.45 yuan/ton respectively [27]. - The spread of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber increased, while the spread of 3L to Thai mixed rubber decreased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads were 250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 47.06% and - 32.43% respectively [32][33]. Substitute Prices - The price of synthetic rubber increased slightly, with a smaller increase than RU, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened. On August 15, 2025, the prices of Chinese mainstream market butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were 11700 yuan/ton and 12200 yuan/ton respectively [35][36]. Fund Flows - On August 15, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 10.36, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 10.79%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 22.92, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.14% and a year - on - year increase of 256.95%. The settled funds of RU and NR were 58.51 billion yuan and 27.54 billion yuan respectively [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand increased significantly recently. The rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has eased recently [43][44]. - Due to continuous rainfall in the production areas, the release of new rubber was limited, pushing up the raw material purchase price. On August 15, 2025, the prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets were 49.8 baht/kg, 54.2 baht/kg, 63.15 baht/kg, and 59.25 baht/kg respectively [46][47]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories decreased. On August 15, 2025, they were 4.40 baht/kg and 600 yuan/ton respectively [55][56]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and smoked sheets and Hainan concentrated latex decreased, while the production profit of Thai concentrated latex increased. On August 15, 2025, they were - 209 yuan/ton, 2543 yuan/ton, 814.13 yuan/ton, and 670.13 yuan/ton respectively [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the import of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [62][63]. Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.24 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.26 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.26 percentage points. Tire inventory increased slightly compared with last week [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. In July, the sales volume of passenger vehicles weakened seasonally month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased significantly, with both dark and light rubber decreasing. Qingdao Port had a significant decrease in inventory, while Yunnan and Vietnamese rubber had a slight increase in inventory [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there was insufficient positive driving force, and the rebound of rubber prices was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking by early buyers, and factory inquiries were based on rigid demand. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber followed the upward trend of the market, but the downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and the actual transactions in the market were mainly based on rigid demand [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Continuous rainfall in Yunnan has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high and volatile. The weather in Hainan is favorable, and raw material supply has maintained seasonal output. However, the spot market has faced difficulties in price - adding transactions, and some processing plants have become more cautious about high - priced raw materials, with the purchase price of latex stabilizing after rising [6]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies have remained low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices to some extent, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some overhauled all - steel tire enterprises have resumed work and moderately increased production, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have still arranged overhauls, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the driving force for rubber prices was insufficient, and the rebound was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the market upward, but downstream buying was mainly for rigid demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has been affected by rainfall, while Hainan has normal weather. Qingdao port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for domestic tires has limited fluctuations [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,250 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up this week, with a week - on - week increase of 2.57%. The main contract price of 20 - grade rubber also closed up, with a week - on - week increase of 2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 8, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 975, and the spread between September and October contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 60 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 8, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 176,320 tons, a decrease of 1,310 tons from last week. The warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 42,437 tons, an increase of 2,721 tons from last week [25]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of August 7, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Basis Trends**: As of August 7, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week. The non - standard basis was - 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 915 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 7, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54 (- 0.3) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 48.3 (+ 0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 8, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.6 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of August 7, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import Volume - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [47]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%, and the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The warehousing rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% compared with June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Core View - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stabilizing, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,300 [2]. 2. Key Data Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,245 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,120 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,125 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 129,837 lots, up 658 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 66,552 lots, up 4,347 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,628 lots, up 3,059 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 12,345 lots, down 1,274 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 186,680 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 37,398 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,934 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 159 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet is 66.37 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber film is 63.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 49.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.54%, down 0.49 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.98%, down 3.81 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.28%, up 3.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.28%, up 3.15 percentage points [2]. 3. Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. The bonded area inventory is 77,900 tons, a decline of 1.39%; the general trade inventory is 556,700 tons, a decline of 0.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 2.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.29 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.40 percentage points. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, due to rainfall, the supply of latex is scarce, and the purchase price remains firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather has improved, tapping operations have gradually resumed, and the supply of raw materials on the island has gradually increased seasonally. Driven by the strong futures and spot market, the enthusiasm of some processing factories to bid up the price of raw materials has continued to rise [2].

1. Investment Rating of the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on natural rubber this week is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply release expectation has not been fulfilled due to weather disturbances in Thailand, and the raw material support is strong. The demand shows a benign and improving trend in the all - steel tire segment, while the semi - steel tire situation is just satisfactory. The short - term trading of natural rubber will revolve around weather and supply volume, and the macro - economic factors will also impact the market [81]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased, with the export volume reaching 471 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase, and the export value reaching 83.5 billion yuan, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease, and the production from January to June increased by 2% year - on - year to 591.668 million pieces [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 20% year - on - year to 112,595 tons, and the income decreased by 2.3% year - on - year to $208 million. However, domestic latex consumption increased by 92% to 53,361 tons. In the same period, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year to 751,672 tons [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 24.1% year - on - year to 4.075 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise, with the domestic market rising more. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 14,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.13%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 12,675 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.30%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 169.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.23%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 324.40 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.01% [11][12]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 18, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8.38%; the RU09 - BR09 spread was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.25% [22][23]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast is slightly lower, and the rainfall in the south has eased. In China, Hainan and Yunnan have experienced more rainfall recently, with rainfall in Hainan decreasing month - on - month [42][44]. - Due to the rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas, the short - term supply has been disrupted, and the price of Thai cup lump has risen significantly, with strong upstream cost support. On July 18, 2025, the price of Thai cup lump was 48.60 baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [48][49]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan latex for concentrated latex factory - for whole - milk factory decreased. On July 18, 2025, the Thai water - cup spread was 5.90 baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.23% [56][57]. - The processing profits of Thai standard rubber and concentrated latex recovered, the processing profit of Hainan concentrated latex improved, and the profit of Thai smoked sheets decreased. On July 18, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 42 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.42% [59][60]. - In May 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [63][64]. 3.3.2 Demand - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.56%; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.42%. The inventory days of all - steel tires were 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.92% [67][68]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. In June 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate, and in May 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [71][72]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2952 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81%; the inventory of light - colored rubber was 497,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [73]. - On July 18, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%; the futures and spot inventory was 212,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [77][78].