| 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 15975 | -155 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12840 | -170 | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | | 30 | 10 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -40 | 10 | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 期货市场 | 3135 | 15 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 194674 | -5832 | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 70162 | -402 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -53451 | 253 | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | | -15091 | -268 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 105590 | 1000 | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | | 57758 15700 | 0 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16100 | 100 | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 来源：博易大师 瑞达期货研究院 • 本周沪胶期货主力价格震荡收涨，周度+2.72%；20号胶主力合约价格震荡收涨，周度+2.33%。 20号胶主力合约价格走势 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场成本支撑走强，胶价冲高后偏强整理。进口胶市场报盘上涨，现货 采购价格不及远月，工厂适量补货。期货盘面维持偏强震荡格局，国产现货报价跟涨。下游采购 意愿相对平淡，多以适量刚需补货为主，市场整体交投气氛一般，实际成交表现清淡。 行情展望：国内云南产区处于停割期，海南产区处于割胶尾声，西线陆续停割，仅剩南部少量地 区割胶，全岛可收胶量稀少，原料收购价格波动有限，预计产区下周将完全进入停割。近期青岛 港口总库存延续累库状态，保税库及一般贸易库均呈现累库，总累库幅度环比扩大。节前胶价高 位震荡，部分胎企假期检修放假，除少量逢低补货外，多观望为主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market price increased. Imported rubber market offers rose, with traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse exchanges. The restocking sentiment in January was strong, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. Domestic natural rubber spot offers also increased following the market, but downstream demand did not improve significantly, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see approach and maintaining rigid demand procurement, resulting in weak actual order transactions [9]. - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan producing area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still tapping, but due to rainfall, the raw material output on the island has further decreased, and local private processing plants have gradually shut down. It is expected that the producing area will basically stop tapping in early January and completely stop in mid - January. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand month - on - month. The arrival and warehousing of overseas mixed rubber have increased, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and the overall outbound volume is lower than expected. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises has decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market price increased this week. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers also increased. Downstream demand remained weak [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan's output is decreasing. Qingdao Port's inventory is accumulating, and downstream restocking willingness is low. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and they are in the seasonal off - season [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,400 - 16,000, and the nr2602 contract between 12,400 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.88% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 3.2% week - on - week. As of December 25, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipt was 93,230 tons, an increase of 6,070 tons from last week; the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 57,960 tons, a decrease of 1,008 tons from last week. As of December 26, the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 30, and the 20 - rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 [12][22][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 25, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The 20 - rubber basis was 433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week [29][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of December 26, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (- 1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 51 (+ 0.25) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton from last week. As of December 25, the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and Yunnan was in the non - tapping period [39][42]. - **Import Situation**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [45]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate [49]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [55]. - **Domestic Demand**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [58].

Group 1 - The main contract for natural rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 15,890.00 yuan, with a current price of 15,840.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.62% [1] Group 2 - Xinhuh Futures indicates that natural rubber prices currently lack significant driving forces, with normal seasonal accumulation expected during the peak production season [2] - Green Dahu Futures suggests that the short-term trend for natural rubber may remain volatile, as domestic production in Hainan is transitioning to a cessation phase while overseas supply is increasing [3] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a volatile market for natural rubber, noting reduced supply elasticity and increased inventory levels due to a slowdown in tire shipments and rising finished product stocks [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was affected by external factors, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber market offer prices declined, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted with the market. The trading atmosphere was average, and real - deal prices weakened [5]. - The raw material supply in domestic Yunnan has stopped, and prices are stable with some still at low levels. In Hainan, fresh latex dry content has declined due to rain, and overall raw material output is seasonally decreasing. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation has narrowed. Tire companies are restocking as needed, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved [5]. - The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies has increased this week, but it is in the seasonal off - season, with slow sales and flexible production control. As finished product inventories continue to rise, some companies may conduct maintenance or reduce production in the future [5]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14950 - 15350, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12650 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Affected by external factors, rubber prices first fell and then rose. Imported rubber offer prices dropped, and domestic spot offers adjusted. Trading was average, and real - deal prices weakened [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan has stopped production, and Hainan's raw material output is decreasing. Qingdao port inventories are still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. Tire companies' procurement sentiment has slightly improved. Tire production capacity utilization has increased, but sales are slow, and inventories are rising [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14950 - 15350, and the nr2602 contract between 12000 - 12650 [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose with a weekly increase of 1.1%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract price rose with a weekly increase of 2.41% [8]. - As of December 12, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 15, and the spread between 20 - number rubber 1 - 2 was - 30 [19]. - As of December 12, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 56990 tons, an increase of 11460 tons from last week; 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 59573 tons, an increase of 2218 tons from last week [24]. - **Spot Market** - As of December 11, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - As of December 11, the 20 - number rubber basis was 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 177 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of December 12, the field glue in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 55.25 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; cup glue was 49.45 (+1.11) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 53.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.6 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of December 11, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Yunnan was in the off - season [40]. - **Import** - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [43]. - **Inventory** - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.87 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 tons or 1.49%. Bonded area inventory was 7.39 tons, an increase of 2.08%; general trade inventory was 41.48 tons, an increase of 1.38% [46]. - **Downstream** - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [49]. - In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [52]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [55]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no content about option market analysis in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are stocking up moderately at low prices according to their rigid needs, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of the previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased month - on - month, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 5; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 35; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The holding volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 123,959 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,189; the holding volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 29,787 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,914. The net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 29,217, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the net holding of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,229, with a month - on - month increase of 460. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 46,030 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 500; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57,154 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of Thai RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30; the price of Malaysian RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 685 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,806 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 741 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 54 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 59 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.2; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.2. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.51 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.95 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 13.48% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.55% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.34% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.33% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase rate of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a weak consolidation. Overseas peak production periods will increase supply, exerting more pressure on the market than the sentiment of domestic production areas entering the off - season. Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and the off - season of terminal demand, there is no obvious positive driver in the short - term, and rubber prices may remain slightly weak [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Thailand lifted the emergency state in Songkhla Province as flood conditions improved, but relief and restoration work will continue [5]. - ANRPC predicted that in October 2025, global natural rubber production would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, while consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, production is expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, China's national passenger car market retail volume decreased by 7% year - on - year. From January to October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 3% [7]. 3.2 Price 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices declined, with Japanese rubber dropping the most, followed by NR and RU. On December 5, 2025, compared with November 28, RU2605 decreased by 2.46%, NR2605 by 2.47%, Singapore TSR20:2605 by 1.04%, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 by 5.10% [10][12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 5, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 365 yuan/ton, with a 17.98% week - on - week increase and a 66.51% year - on - year increase. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was - 20 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and an 89.74% year - on - year increase [13]. 3.2.3 Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased. Non - standard basis: Imported rubber market offers declined, and domestic natural rubber spot prices also decreased. The whole - milk to Thai mixed rubber spread was stable, while the 3L to Thai mixed rubber spread widened [18][21][24]. 3.2.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the cost side lacked support. Although the mainstream supply price and market offers increased initially, downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in trading volume and a subsequent drop in offers [31]. 3.2.5 Capital Flow - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, while the settled capital increased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - **Weather**: Thailand's southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, and the northeast had higher - than - normal rainfall and lower - than - normal temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39][41]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Overseas floods receded, and rubber tapping and production resumed in Thailand, leading to a decline in raw material prices. In China, raw materials remained firm during the suspension and production - reduction period [43]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The water - cup spread in Thailand widened, while the spreads of Hainan and Yunnan glue entering concentrated latex plants versus whole - milk plants remained stable [47]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices decreased, processing profits generally recovered [50]. - **Delivery Profits**: Hainan's delivery profits continued to recover, while Yunnan's decreased [55]. - **Exports**: In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased. Indonesia's exports decreased, mainly due to a significant drop in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased, with latex having a relatively large month - on - month increase. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month, but exports to China increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [62][65][68][74][76]. - **Imports**: In October, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 510,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Thai standard rubber imports decreased, while Indonesian standard and mixed rubber imports were at a high level year - on - year, and Cote d'Ivoire's standard rubber imports increased significantly [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises recovered, but overall sales pressure remained high, limiting the increase. Tire inventory days continued to decline [83]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck and passenger car sales increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [86]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In October, road freight turnover decreased month - on - month, while passenger turnover improved [89]. 3.3.3 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory showed a seasonal accumulation trend, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation in Yunnan decreased compared to the previous period, while Vietnamese rubber increased slightly [95]. - **Futures Inventory**: On December 5, 2025, compared with the previous week, natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 9.98%, the spot - futures inventory by 8.54%, 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the INE by 11.79%, and the spot - futures inventory by 9.59% [99]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous period. The inventory continued to accumulate [102]. - **Demand**: The resumption of production in maintenance enterprises drove the recovery of capacity utilization, but overall production and sales pressure limited the release of production capacity [102]. - **View**: The increase in overseas supply during the peak production period will put more pressure on the market, and Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand, rubber prices may remain weak [102]. - **Valuation**: On Friday, the spread between RU and NR main contracts was 3020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract was - 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [102]. - **Strategy**: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or a short - selling strategy when prices are high for RU. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread if inventory accumulation continues. 3) For inter - variety trading, observe [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had significant long - short divergence, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to roll and exchange positions. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after the buying volume decreased due to the positive spread arbitrage. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range following the market. The willingness of holders to quote was average, and the terminal buyers restocked in moderation at low prices, with light actual transactions [8]. - In the near future, raw materials in Yunnan's production areas were mostly stable with relatively sufficient supplies. In Hainan's production areas, the weather was okay, but yellowing and leaf - falling phenomena appeared in the central and eastern regions, which restricted the overall raw material output. Local processing plants faced high production costs and mainly purchased raw materials as needed. Recently, the cumulative inventory increase at Qingdao Port has expanded month - on - month, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remained at a high level, but downstream enterprises were mainly in a wait - and - see mood and had low inventory - building willingness, which led to a large increase in the total inventory at Qingdao Port [8]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance this week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to recover, but some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of this month and the beginning of next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market had long - short divergence this week, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market focused on position rolling and exchanging. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened. The futures market was volatile, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly. The trading volume was light [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw materials were stable, while Hainan's output was restricted. Qingdao Port's inventory increased significantly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance this week, and full - steel tire enterprises resumed work. Next week, the capacity utilization rate will recover but be limited by future maintenance plans [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2601 contract between 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.12%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decrease of 0.08% [11]. - **Spread**: As of November 28th, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [23]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 28th, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 41400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 51307 tons, an increase of 1108 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 27th, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 27th, the 20 - rubber basis was 789 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 27th, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.95 (+0) Thai baht/kg. As of November 28th, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 27 US dollars/ton, compared with 4.5 US dollars/ton last week [44]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 27th, the latex price in Yunnan was 14100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [47]. 3.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [51]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of November 23rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63 tons, or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 7.19 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 39.7 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [54]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 27th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, China's cumulative tire exports were 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 22.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 272.66 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 39.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 402.65 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [60]. - **Domestic Demand**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no information about option market analysis in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reduction and suspension season, and rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam continues to cause disruptions. The upstream raw material prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the cost side still has strong support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments shows a seasonal increase trend, and the inventory accumulation of natural rubber remains unchanged, suppressing spot prices. There are still differences between bulls and bears in the market, and there is a lack of positive drivers [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 996.421 million pieces. China's rubber tire exports from January to October reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [5]. - The Ghana Rubber Processors Association (RUPAG) supports the government's decision to restrict raw rubber exports in the "Revitalization Industry Plan" of the 2026 budget statement. The association plans to increase the country's dry rubber production from the current 100,000 tons to 250,000 tons by 2035 [6]. - The Malaysian government aims to increase natural rubber production to at least 400,000 tons of cup lump rubber and 20,000 tons of latex, which is expected to save 4 billion ringgit by reducing import dependence [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic natural rubber market rose, while the overseas market was divided. SGX TSR20 slightly declined, and JPX RSS3 rose. On November 21, 2025, the closing price of RU2601.SHF was 15,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%; the closing price of NR2601.SHF was 12,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 170.90 cents/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 333.30 yen/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [10][12]. 3.3 Price Spreads - **Base and Monthly Spreads**: The spread between whole - milk rubber and RU01 was - 390 yuan/ton on November 21, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 16.13% and a year - on - year increase of 52.44%. The 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.88% and a year - on - year increase of 68.00% [17]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR and RU - BR spreads increased, while RU - JPX RSS3 and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased. In the non - standard base spread, the import rubber market had trader rotations. At the beginning of the week, the monthly spread of imported mixed rubber was close to par, and holders were active in selling, but the buying sentiment was weak. At the end of the week, arbitrageurs added long positions, and factories replenished stocks cautiously. The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai - mixed rubber and the spread between 3L rubber and Thai - mixed rubber widened [22][25]. - **Substitute Price**: The price of butadiene rubber increased slightly due to good buying at the raw material end and the postponement of the restart of some Korean cracking units. However, due to sufficient supply and good production profits, downstream resistance to price increases is rising, and intermediate trading has weakened significantly [35]. 3.4 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased, and the settled funds decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, and the settled funds also decreased. On November 21, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 46.62, a week - on - week increase of 162.67% and a year - on - year increase of 51.19%; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.75, a week - on - week decrease of 7.98% and a year - on - year increase of 63.92%. The settled funds of RU were 5.075 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 32.27%; the settled funds of NR were 2.212 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23% [38][40]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - **Weather**: In Thailand, the southern region has entered the rainy season with a rapid increase in rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast is seasonally decreasing. In China, the rainy season in Hainan is about to end, and Yunnan is at the end of the rainy season [43][45]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Weather factors have accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, and overseas raw material prices are high, providing strong support for rubber prices. On November 21, 2025, the cup - lump price in Thailand's Songkhla Province was 52.95 baht/kg, and the latex price was 57 baht/kg [47][48]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The spread between latex and cup - lump in Thailand decreased. The spread between the price of latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production in Hainan decreased, while the spread in Yunnan increased [51]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices rise, processing profits generally decline. On November 21, 2025, the theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 741 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 36950.00% [54][56]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profits in Hainan and Yunnan continued to recover. On November 21, 2025, the delivery profit of dry rubber (SCRWF) in Hainan was - 2420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 369.49%; the delivery profit in Yunnan was - 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 5100.00% [59][64]. - **Exports**: In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally. In October 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, but the exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [65][71][75][79]. - **Imports**: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. The imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, while the imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and the imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [82]. 3.5.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Some full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises had maintenance during the period, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The main reasons for maintenance were insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment transformation in some sample enterprises. Both full - steel and semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory this week. On November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97%. The inventory days of full - steel tires were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% [87]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, the exports of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while the exports of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month in October, but the growth rate decreased slightly [88]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [92]. 3.5.3 Inventory - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory slightly increased this period, with the dark - colored rubber inventory continuing to increase and the light - colored rubber inventory basically remaining stable, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The sample tire enterprises had a small amount of replenishment of dark - colored rubber, but the overall volume was limited, and the outbound volume in Qingdao decreased by 17%. On November 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.0619 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%; the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 669,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%; the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 392,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [98][101]. - **Futures Inventory**: On November 21, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.00%; the spot - and - futures inventory was 78,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.61%. The futures inventory of 20 -号 rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 50,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.76%; the spot - and - futures inventory was 53,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.18% [103].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Natural Rubber Market Weekly Report [3] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - In the near future, the weather in Yunnan has improved, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. Driven by winter storage demand, concentrated latex factories have raised prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, the weather is fair, but the temperature has dropped, leading to a decline in the dry content of latex. Local processing plants have entered the winter storage phase and continue to offer higher prices for raw materials [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouse is experiencing destocking, while the general trade inventory continues to rise. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level. Factories replenished their stocks earlier, and most of the out - bound goods from the general trade warehouse are for previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and there are few new orders [9]. - In terms of demand, tire companies' orders are insufficient. Some companies have scheduled maintenance, and others are operating at reduced capacity, dragging down the tire production capacity utilization rate. As the production of maintenance companies gradually resumes, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited, and companies will continue to control production [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and winter storage demand has led to price increases for raw materials. In Hainan, the temperature has dropped, and local processing plants are in the winter storage phase. Qingdao Port's total inventory continues to increase, with the bonded warehouse destocking and general trade inventory rising. Tire companies' orders are insufficient, but production capacity utilization may recover slightly next week [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets 4.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16%, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber also closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific position analysis results are provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 21, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 39,600 tons, a decrease of 68,870 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [27]. 4.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 20, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of November 20, the 20 - rubber basis was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 4.3 Industry Situation 4.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 21, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 52.95 (+0.85) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.6 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 20, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. 4.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [47]. 4.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points [50]. 4.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In October 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year and a significant year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [59].