Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - External shocks persist, and stock indices are expected to continue their weak performance in the short term. Investors are advised to remain cautious and control their positions [7]. - After a significant market decline, the probability of policy support has increased. Attention should be paid to the supportive trends of domestic factors on stock indices this week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a -0.02bp change; DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.50bp change; GC001 at 1.49 with a 39.00bp change; GC007 at 1.50 with a 3.50bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.52 with a -0.38bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change; 1 - year treasury at 1.24 with a 0.00bp change; 5 - year treasury at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.84 with a 0.30bp change; 10 - year US treasury at 4.39 with a 14.00bp change [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 1373 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 1293 billion yuan. This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Data - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 3.26% to 4418; the SSE 50 fell 3.17% to 2792.3; the CSI 500 fell 4.11% to 7440.7; the CSI 1000 fell 4.81% to 7409.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors declined, with only the coal sector rising, and sectors such as precious metals, hotel catering, etc. having large declines [5][6]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 11.7% to 156,918, and open interest increased by 6.1% to 276,923; IH volume increased by 14.0% to 78,380, and open interest increased by 16.0% to 115,469; IC volume increased by 8.8% to 217,723, and open interest increased by 4.2% to 298,855; IM volume increased by 11.9% to 325,166, and open interest increased by 5.8% to 408,928 [5]. - **Futures Premium and Discount**: IF premium rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 6.61%, 3.12%, 6.91%, and 7.35% respectively; IH are - 0.66%, - 0.31%, 2.43%, and 3.73% respectively; IC are 10.43%, 9.55%, 11.47%, and 10.74% respectively; IM are 8.89%, 10.33%, 12.27%, and 12.08% respectively [8].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 16,524 billion yuan this week, resulting in a net injection of 12,469 billion yuan after 4,055 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - This week, the central bank also conducted a tender for 1,500 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, with 5,000 billion yuan of 182-day reverse repos maturing on Friday [1] - The central bank initiated a 10,000 billion yuan operation for 182-day reverse repos this week [1] Group 2 - In the week following the Spring Festival holiday (February 24-28), 22,524 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature, with 14,524 billion yuan maturing on February 24, 4,000 billion yuan on February 25, and another 4,000 billion yuan on February 26 [1] - Additionally, on February 25, there will be 3,000 billion yuan of MLF maturing and 1,500 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing [1]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,005.5 billion yuan this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 756 billion yuan due to 1,761.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing this week [1] - The operations included 405.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos, with 300 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos conducted on both Thursday and Friday [1] - Next week, there will be 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities of 75 billion yuan, 105.5 billion yuan, 75 billion yuan, 118.5 billion yuan, and 31.5 billion yuan scheduled from Monday to Friday [1]

Group 1 - The central bank will have a total of 951.5 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific maturities of 86.1 billion, 358.6 billion, 240.8 billion, 179.3 billion, and 86.7 billion yuan from Monday to Friday respectively [1] - Additionally, there will be 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on Friday [1] - This week, the central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations, resulting in a net injection of 812.8 billion yuan after accounting for 138.7 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the last few trading days of the year, it is expected that there will be limited changes in the bond market. Interest rates may continue a mostly sideways trend. Attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties, while being vigilant about the high volatility of ultra - long - term varieties and the disturbance of rising cross - year funding prices on 1 - 2Y term varieties. Moderately seize the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds with a term of 7Y and below, as well as the term spread between 5Y - 3Y treasury bonds [2][17]. - In the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, and price signals are the key [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funding Prices: Cross - year Funding Prices Rise - From December 19th to December 25th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 6.59 billion yuan. On the 25th, 40 billion yuan of MLF was carried out, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan [2][8]. - During the statistical period, the 14 - day funding price rose significantly, with R014 rising by 24bp. Starting from the 25th, as 7 - day funds began to cross the year, DR007 rose 10bp on that day but remained in the range of 1.4 - 1.5%. Overnight funding prices continued to decline, with DR001 dropping to a new low of 1.26% for the year. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, with the 1Y certificate of deposit yield falling to around 1.64%, in line with the year - end seasonal characteristic of declining certificate of deposit yields [8]. 3.2 Primary Market: Issuance Nears the End - From December 19th to December 25th, only 11 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, indicating that interest - rate bond issuance is coming to an end [2][9]. 3.3 Secondary Market: The Yield Curve Continues to Steepen - From December 19th to December 25th, the yields of most treasury bonds declined, and the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds continued to weaken. In terms of term structure, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds declined more. The market traded on the expectation that the central bank would increase its support for the funding market and that the bond - buying scale in December would increase. The term spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds widened to 53bp, reaching a new high since January 7, 2025. Long - end interest rates are still in a state of game, with large intraday fluctuations and limited response to Beijing's real - estate relaxation policies. In addition, secondary - market trading volume also decreased seasonally at the year - end [2][10]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Currently, it is hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Factors such as policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be dominant. However, in the longer term, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [15]. - Policy: The central bank released the communiqué of the fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting. Three adjustments in the statements are worthy of attention. First, the statement of "preventing idle funds" was deleted. Second, "promoting a decline in the overall social financing cost" was adjusted to "promoting the overall social financing cost to operate at a low level." Combining these two points, it can be understood that the current overall social financing cost is already at a low level. Further interest - rate cuts may face many constraints and may not necessarily achieve good results, but there are still various means to inject funds, and liquidity injection tools of various terms will be used flexibly. Third, "optimizing supply" was added after the statement of "expanding domestic demand." From the perspective of financial institutions, this may indicate that goals such as the total amount of credit issuance are further downplayed, and more emphasis is placed on the quality of issuance [15]. - Funding: As the year - end approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operation support, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [15].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 663.8 billion yuan this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan due to 1.5118 trillion yuan of reverse repos maturing this week [1] - Additionally, there was a 1 trillion yuan 91-day buyout reverse repurchase operation this week, coinciding with the maturity of the same amount [1] - For the upcoming week, the central bank will have 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities scheduled from Monday to Friday totaling 10.76 billion, 15.63 billion, 7.93 billion, 18.08 billion, and 13.98 billion yuan respectively [1]

Core Insights - The central point of the article is the recent operations of the central bank in the open market, specifically focusing on reverse repos and the net liquidity injection into the market [1] Group 1: Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank conducted reverse repo operations amounting to 11,220 billion yuan, with 4,958 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - The net liquidity injection for the week was 6,262 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Upcoming Maturities - Next week, there will be 11,220 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities scheduled from Monday to Friday: 1,199 billion yuan, 4,038 billion yuan, 1,955 billion yuan, 1,900 billion yuan, and 2,128 billion yuan respectively [1] - Additionally, there will be 1,200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing next Thursday [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. After continuous corrections since July, the 1-year Treasury bond yield rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the policy emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank's recent open market operations have shifted to net liquidity withdrawal, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that investors have a strong risk appetite, so the upward momentum of Treasury bonds is insufficient. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On August 1st, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 126 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate through quantity tender. Both the bid volume and winning bid volume were 126 billion yuan, and the operating rate was 1.40%. There were 789.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the day [6]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central focus of the article is on the upcoming maturity of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos in the central bank's open market operations next week, indicating significant liquidity movements in the financial system [1]. Group 1 - A total of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week [1]. - The maturity schedule includes 242 billion yuan on Monday, 197.3 billion yuan on Tuesday, 156.3 billion yuan on Wednesday, 203.5 billion yuan on Thursday, and 161.2 billion yuan on Friday [1]. - Additionally, there will be 100 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on Monday [1].