Report Overview - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Author: Zheng Yuting from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Interest Rates - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.15 bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.43 with a 1.24 bp decrease [4] - GC001 closed at 1.32 with an 11.00 bp decrease; GC007 closed at 1.47 with no change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59 with a 0.15 bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [4] - 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40 with a 0.23 bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58 with a 0.52 bp increase [4] - 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81 with a 1.06 bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09 with a 2.33 bp decrease [4] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 342.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 70 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Indexes and Futures Stock Indexes - CSI 300 rose 1.43% to 4693.4; SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 3044.7; CSI 500 rose 1.61% to 7345.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.17% to 7551.8 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0552 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6] Stock Index Futures - IF当月 rose 1.6%; IH当月 rose 1.3%; IC当月 rose 1.9%; IM当月 rose 1.3% [6] - IF trading volume decreased 4.5%, and its position decreased 2.0%; IH trading volume decreased 3.1%, and its position decreased 0.8% [6] - IC trading volume decreased 9.3%, and its position decreased 2.7%; IM trading volume decreased 14.8%, and its position decreased 4.6% [6] Market Analysis and Strategy - Yesterday, the stock index continued to rebound, and the technology sector recovered. Rumors of support for domestic chips and a 50% price increase in HBM4 supply between SK Hynix and NVIDIA boosted relevant sectors [7] - In the short term, in November, the stock index enters a macro - relatively vacuum period. Liquidity factors may dominate market strength, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly under the background of abundant macro - liquidity [7] - In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. The strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long and using the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF升贴水: 4.98% (current month), 4.09% (next month), 3.22% (current quarter), 3.27% (next quarter) [8] - IH升贴水: 1.39% (current month), 0.93% (next month), 0.60% (current quarter), 0.64% (next quarter) [8] - IC升贴水: 13.62% (current month), 11.48% (next month), 9.93% (current quarter), 10.00% (next quarter) [8] - IM升贴水: 20.63% (current month), 16.50% (next month), 13.17% (current quarter), 12.40% (next quarter) [8]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The central bank increased reverse repurchase operations to stabilize inter - bank market funds as the funds tightened recently, and there will be 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week [3][4]. - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positive factors, the upward speed of stock index futures may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for [6]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32%, down 4.80bp; DR007 at 1.52%, down 4.67bp; GC001 at 1.78%, up 12.00bp; GC007 at 1.63%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.38%, down 2.00bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.58%, down 2.50bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.72%, down 3.05bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.34%, down 8.00bp [3]. - **Reverse Repurchase**: The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [3]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4151, down 0.02%; the SSE 50 at 2819, up 0.38%; the CSI 500 at 6315, down 0.65%; the CSI 1000 at 6718, down 0.82%. IF当月 closed at 4147, down 0.1%; IH当月 at 2821, up 0.3%; IC当月 at 6271, down 0.7%; IM当月 at 6676, down 0.8% [5][6]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF volume increased by 41.3% to 138031, and open interest increased by 5.9% to 274703; IH volume increased by 53.7% to 70949, and open interest increased by 9.0% to 103281; IC volume increased by 19.5% to 105254, and open interest increased by 2.3% to 229923; IM volume increased by 22.7% to 231279, and open interest increased by 5.0% to 346497 [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 2.33%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.90% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 1.66%, - 0.16%, - 0.08%, and - 0.12% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.71%, 11.25%, 9.59%, and 8.92% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.56%, 12.17%, 11.60%, and 10.93% respectively [7]. 3. Market Review - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8443 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with the mining, shipbuilding, tourism and hotel, food and beverage, and commercial department store sectors leading the gains, while the battery, diversified finance, small metals, engineering machinery, and power supply equipment sectors leading the losses [6]. 4. Market Hot News - This week, 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The Politburo meeting released little incremental information, emphasizing policy continuity, stability, flexibility, and predictability, and promoting the governance of non - competitive behavior in enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [6].