Workflow
股指升贴水
icon
Search documents
宏观金融数据日报-20250731
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 06:26
Report Summary 1. Core View - The central bank increased reverse repurchase operations to stabilize inter - bank market funds as the funds tightened recently, and there will be 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week [3][4]. - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positive factors, the upward speed of stock index futures may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for [6]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32%, down 4.80bp; DR007 at 1.52%, down 4.67bp; GC001 at 1.78%, up 12.00bp; GC007 at 1.63%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.38%, down 2.00bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.58%, down 2.50bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.72%, down 3.05bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.34%, down 8.00bp [3]. - **Reverse Repurchase**: The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [3]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4151, down 0.02%; the SSE 50 at 2819, up 0.38%; the CSI 500 at 6315, down 0.65%; the CSI 1000 at 6718, down 0.82%. IF当月 closed at 4147, down 0.1%; IH当月 at 2821, up 0.3%; IC当月 at 6271, down 0.7%; IM当月 at 6676, down 0.8% [5][6]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF volume increased by 41.3% to 138031, and open interest increased by 5.9% to 274703; IH volume increased by 53.7% to 70949, and open interest increased by 9.0% to 103281; IC volume increased by 19.5% to 105254, and open interest increased by 2.3% to 229923; IM volume increased by 22.7% to 231279, and open interest increased by 5.0% to 346497 [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 2.33%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.90% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 1.66%, - 0.16%, - 0.08%, and - 0.12% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.71%, 11.25%, 9.59%, and 8.92% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.56%, 12.17%, 11.60%, and 10.93% respectively [7]. 3. Market Review - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8443 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with the mining, shipbuilding, tourism and hotel, food and beverage, and commercial department store sectors leading the gains, while the battery, diversified finance, small metals, engineering machinery, and power supply equipment sectors leading the losses [6]. 4. Market Hot News - This week, 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The Politburo meeting released little incremental information, emphasizing policy continuity, stability, flexibility, and predictability, and promoting the governance of non - competitive behavior in enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [6].