1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a seasonal de - stocking state with total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills changing little, inventory declining and apparent demand rebounding. However, market expectations for the future are pessimistic. Rising crude oil prices support the futures price. Technically, the futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season with a rebound in the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills last week. Iron ore production cost has increased due to rising crude oil prices. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but are expected to improve. The futures price shows resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Total output changed little last week. Inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound, entering a seasonal de - stocking state. Market expectations for the future are pessimistic [2]. - **Cost**: Rising crude oil prices push up costs, supporting the futures price [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and may stabilize and rebound after testing the lower support level [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when there is a rally, with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - **Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, prices of related products like wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils, steel billet and scrap steel prices, steel mill production, inventory, and apparent demand data are provided [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and iron water production is expected to gradually increase [4]. - **Cost**: Rising crude oil prices increase the production cost of iron ore [4]. - **Supply**: Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Recent arrivals have increased, and port inventory has decreased but remains at a historical high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price shows resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, but it may also be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and be cautious about chasing up [4]. - **Data**: Iron ore futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, overseas shipments, sea freight, exchange rates, arrivals, port inventory, domestic mine production, and futures warehouse receipt data are provided [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Inner Mongolia Baite Metallurgical Building Materials Co., Ltd. reduced production of a 42000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnace from the night of March 31st, affecting the daily production of ferrosilicon - manganese by 300 tons [5]. - According to the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage plan, the floating value of coking coal long - term agreement in March 2026 decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared with February, a decline of 1.6% [6]. - From March 23rd - 29th, 2026, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1394.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.8 tons. The current inventory is slightly higher than the average level since the beginning of the year [6]. - The PMI of the steel industry in March 2026 was 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months, indicating the recovery of the steel industry [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal de - stocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. The recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by weather, but are expected to improve. Futures prices face resistance above but may be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal de - stocking state, but market expectations for the future are pessimistic [2] - **Cost and Technical Analysis**: The recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and after a short - term retracement to the lower support level, it stabilized and rebounded [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when there is a rally. Treat it with an oscillating mindset [2] - **Data Summary**: - Futures and spot prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and the spot prices of rebar decreased slightly compared to last week, while the spot prices of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [2] - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, such as the basis of rebar increasing compared to the previous day but decreasing compared to last week [2] - Production and inventory: The output of rebar decreased by 2.69% week - on - week, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.80% week - on - week. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, and the inventory of billets in Tangshan also decreased [2] - Apparent demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties increased by 2.24% week - on - week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand and Cost**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 2.90 million tons to 2.312 million tons, with a narrowing increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production cost of iron ore [4] - **Supply and Technical Analysis**: Short - term port shipments are affected by the weather in Australia, which has a certain boost to iron ore futures prices. However, as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere improves, shipments are expected to improve rapidly. The recent arrival volume has increased, and port inventories have decreased. Technically, the futures price oscillates repeatedly after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating strong resistance above, but it may also be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and be cautious about chasing up [4] - **Data Summary**: - Futures and spot prices: The settlement prices of the main contract of DCE iron ore and SGX iron ore decreased slightly compared to the previous day and last week, and the prices of iron ore powder at ports showed different changes [5] - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of iron ore futures showed different changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures decreasing compared to the previous day and last week [5] - Overseas shipments: The overseas shipments of Australian iron ore decreased by 39.55% week - on - week, and the shipments from Brazil increased by 47.70% week - on - week [5] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased by 0.57% week - on - week, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5] 3.3 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 24.724 billion tons, a decrease of 6.719 billion tons compared to the previous period. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 billion tons, a decrease of 6.843 billion tons compared to the previous period [7] - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.267 billion tons, an increase of 2.436 billion tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 billion tons, an increase of 1.547 billion tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 11.981 billion tons, an increase of 1.477 billion tons compared to the previous period [8] - Manganese - silicon plants are gradually reducing production as planned. Most plants will start reducing production by about 30% on April 1st. The total monthly spontaneous emission reduction of national manganese - alloy enterprises is expected to be 221,000 tons. The short - term supply pressure is expected to ease. The operating rate of 187 independent manganese - silicon enterprises in the country is 32.01%, a decrease of 4.08% compared to last week; the daily average output is 27,380 tons per day, a decrease of 650 tons [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction phase. Although the current market sentiment is pessimistic about the future, the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and there is a possibility of stabilizing and rebounding after a short - term retracement to the support level. The recommended strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - **For the iron ore sector**: As the market enters the consumption peak season, the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but the shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Technically, the futures price shows significant resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. The recommended operation is also to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1. Supply and Demand - Last week, the total output of five major varieties from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction state. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 79.78%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod output is 197.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.46 million tons or 2.69%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.40 million tons or 1.80% [2]. 3.1.2. Inventory - The social inventory of five major varieties is 1387.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.33 million tons or 1.65%. The threaded rod social inventory is 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or 1.60%. The hot - rolled coil social inventory is 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or 1.84%. The steel mill inventory of five major varieties is 510.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.06 million tons or 4.68% [2]. 3.1.3. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for five major varieties is 887.97 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.49 million tons or 2.24%. The apparent demand for threaded rods is 225.37 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.28 million tons or 8.30%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.63 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 million tons or 1.00% [2]. 3.1.4. Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day and an increase of 1 yuan or 0.03% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3299 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day and an increase of 2 yuan or 0.06% from last week [2]. 3.1.5. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore 3.2.1. Supply and Demand - The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased by 2.9 million tons to 231.2 million tons week - on - week, with the growth rate narrowing. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better [4]. 3.2.2. Inventory - The port inventory decreased week - on - week. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 17000.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98.09 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 313.17 million tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 17666.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 330.31 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 million tons [8]. 3.2.3. Futures and Spot Prices - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 812 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3.5 yuan or 0.43% from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.95 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars or 0.36% from the previous day and a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.34% from last week [5]. 3.2.4. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal destocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. Although the recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs and supported futures prices, the futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, indicating significant upward resistance. It is recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is gradually entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The futures price shows significant upward resistance after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is also recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The total output of the five major varieties of 247 sample steel mills this week has changed little, inventory has decreased, and apparent demand has continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal destocking state [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3128 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.22% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3305 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.09% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 197.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.69%; hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.80%. The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties, as well as the inventory of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, have all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Market Transaction**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 19.39 tons, down 20.29% from the previous day and 18.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 887.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%; the apparent demand for threaded steel social inventory is 225.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.30%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil social inventory is 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00% [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered threaded steel warehouse receipts is 98088 tons, and the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 537279 tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 6.95 tons to 228.2 tons. The short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The recent arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 817 yuan/dry ton, up 1.30% from the previous day and 1.18% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 107.34 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.04% from the previous day and down 1.34% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1701.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.44%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 495.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The port inventory is 17098.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from last week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel export volume was 1559.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the export average price was 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36.9 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, and the import average price was 1740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, the cumulative steel import volume was 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, and the import average price was 1769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. - As of the week of March 26, the threaded steel output decreased from an increase, the factory inventory and social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand increased for five consecutive weeks. The threaded steel output was 197.87 tons, a decrease of 5.46 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.69%; the apparent demand was 225.37 tons, an increase of 17.28 tons from last week, an increase of 8.30% [6]. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to limited diesel supply caused by the Iran war, the operations of the Australian mining industry have been affected, forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently raging along the west coast of Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions [6]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is 21 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 47 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 76 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 28 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 73 yuan/ton [7]. - Against the background that most orders fall short of expectations, the procurement enthusiasm of the glass mid - downstream has slowed down. The downstream procurement is mostly for rigid demand, and the inventory depletion of glass enterprises has slowed down this week. As of March 26, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 7362.2 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 81.4 million heavy boxes or 1.09%, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 9.86%, equivalent to 33.6 days of inventory, a slight decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The inventory in the northwest region continues to increase, while the inventory in other regions continues to decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing. However, the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic outlook on the fundamentals. The significant increase in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. In the short term, the futures prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend [2]. - The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten iron production will gradually recover. The recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production cost of iron ore. As the weather improves, shipments are gradually recovering to a high level. The arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and an upward trend is unfolding on the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the total output of five major varieties of 247 sample steel mills increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal de - stocking state. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, but the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Currently, the futures price is running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and it is more likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a strong and volatile trading strategy [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3132 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous day and 0.25% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3313 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 0.09% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 203.33 million tons, up 4.11% from last week; the hot - rolled coil output is 300.21 million tons, up 1.68% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 1411.02 million tons, down 0.86% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory is 653.21 million tons, down 0.20% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 376.33 million tons, down 1.56% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of five major varieties is 868.48 million tons, up 8.82% from last week; the apparent demand of threaded steel is 208.09 million tons, up 17.69% from last week; the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 310.51 million tons, up 5.13% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. Last week, the output of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded, and the daily average molten iron production increased by 6.95 million tons to 228.2 million tons. As the weather improves, shipments are gradually recovering to a high level. The arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and an upward trend is unfolding on the medium - term [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a strong and volatile trading strategy [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 806.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.12% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 105.19 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.30% from the previous day and 2.15% from last week [3]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments are 1701.2 million tons, up 4.44% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipments are 495.2 million tons, down 5.24% from last week [3]. - **Arrival and Inventory**: The total arrival volume of six northern ports is 1050.4 million tons, down 14.62% from last week; the port inventory is 17098.4 million tons, down 0.52% from last week [3]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending March 25, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the national building materials output was 473.36 million tons, an increase of 28.35 million tons from last week; the factory inventory was 630.92 million tons, a decrease of 51.97 million tons from last week; the social inventory was 808.95 million tons, an increase of 5.32 million tons from last week; the total inventory was 1439.87 million tons, a decrease of 46.65 million tons from last week; the apparent demand was 520.01 million tons, an increase of 37.42 million tons from last week [5]. - On March 25, the launch ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project at Liaoning Port (Dalian Port) and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore from SimFer were held at the ore terminal of Dalian Port of Liaoning Port Group. The 201,500 - ton iron ore loaded on the Rio Tinto shipping vessel "RTM Cartier" that arrived at the port all came from the 3rd and 4th mining areas of the Simandou project and was the first ship of iron ore independently shipped by SimFer [5]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1791 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.7% increase from the beginning of the year, a 1.2% decrease from the same ten - day period of last month, a 5.9% increase from the same ten - day period of last year, and an 8.3% decrease from the same ten - day period of the year before last [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity prices are running strongly in the short - term due to the rise in crude oil prices, but the correction of crude oil prices has led to adjustments in rebar and hot - rolled coils. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot - metal output increased significantly. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised the production cost of iron ore. With the improvement of the weather, shipments have gradually recovered to a high level, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. Technically, the futures prices have broken through important resistance levels, and an upward trend is emerging in the medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market situation**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have adjusted. The market may have entered the seasonal de - stocking stage, with increasing production and demand, but weak demand expectations [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and treat it with a strong and volatile mindset [2]. - **Data details**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have different changes. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3145 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3324 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils have also changed. For example, the rebar main basis is 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Production and inventory**: The production of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils have increased. The inventory of five major varieties has decreased, including social and steel mill inventories [2]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for five major varieties has increased, with a week - on - week increase of 8.82% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is in the consumption peak season, with the output of five major steel products rebounding and the hot - metal output increasing. The rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs, shipments have recovered, and port inventory has decreased [4]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and treat it with a strong and volatile mindset [4]. - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have different changes. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 824 yuan/dry ton, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and futures month - to - month spreads of iron ore have also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 25 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Shipments and inventories**: Australian iron ore shipments have increased, while Brazilian shipments have decreased. The port inventory has decreased, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News In February 2026, the global crude steel output was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. From January to February 2026, the global crude steel output was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In February, China's steel output was 76.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the prices of black - series commodities are short - term bullish due to the rise in crude oil prices. The market is in a seasonal de - stocking state with increasing production and demand, but the demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The sharp rise in crude oil prices pushes up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a bullish and volatile trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season. Iron ore production and demand are increasing, the shipping volume is rising, and the port inventory is falling. Technically, the futures prices may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, the prices of thread and hot - rolled coil are volatile. The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the demand expectation is weak [2]. - **Technical analysis**: After breaking through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, the futures prices stepped back to the lower moving average support, and are likely to maintain a bullish and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a bullish and volatile trading strategy [2]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the thread steel main contract is 3154 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day [2]. - **Production**: The output of 247 sample steel mills' five major varieties has increased. The national building materials steel mill's thread steel output is 203.33 million tons, up 4.11% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of the five major varieties in social and steel mill warehouses have decreased, while the steel billet inventory in Tangshan has increased [2]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties has increased by 8.82% to 868.48 million tons [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The iron ore production and demand are increasing, the shipping volume is rising, and the port inventory is falling. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up production costs [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices have rebounded rapidly, breaking through the upper important resistance level, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position and adopt a bullish and volatile trading strategy [4]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures have increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 819 yuan/dry ton, up 1.24% from the previous week [4]. - **Shipping volume**: The Australian iron ore shipping volume is 1701.2 million tons, up 4.44% from the previous week, while the Brazilian iron ore shipping volume is 495.2 million tons, down 5.24% from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased by 0.52% to 17098.4 million tons, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has increased by 3.22% to 1312.15 million tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Coke prices in Shandong, Xingtai, and Yuncheng are planned to increase. Wet - quenched coke will be raised by 50 yuan/ton, and dry - quenched coke will be raised by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on March 25 [6]. - If diesel prices continue to rise, iron ore mining companies may face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs [6]. - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2383.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.1 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports is 2271.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.6 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1050.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179.8 million tons [6]. - From March 16 to March 22, 2026, the total global iron ore shipping volume is 3144.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.5 million tons. The total shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2559.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95.0 million tons [7]. - In mid - March, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities is 1164 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, an increase of 61.4% from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 7.3% from the same period last year [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the black - series commodities**: The sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation has led to a strong crude oil price, driving black - series commodity prices to be strong in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view on the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil prices pushes up costs, supporting futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2] - **For iron ore**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. Steel output has rebounded, and iron - water production is expected to gradually increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Shipping has recovered to a high level, port arrivals have increased, and port inventories have decreased. Technically, the futures price may start a medium - term upward trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply - demand situation**: Last week, the total output of five major varieties from 247 sample steel mills increased, inventories decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market may have entered the seasonal inventory - reduction period [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and then retraced to test the support of the lower moving average. It is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2] - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and consider the market from a strong - volatile perspective [2] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day and 0.60% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and various spreads of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils also changed. For example, the basis of the threaded rod main contract was 107 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan compared to the previous situation [2] - **Production and inventory**: The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories decreased. For example, the national building - materials steel mill's threaded rod production was 203.33 tons, up 4.11% from the previous week, and the threaded rod social inventory was 653.21 tons, down 0.20% from the previous week [2] - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 8.82% compared to the previous week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average iron - water production increased by 6.95 tons to 228.2 tons, with a relatively large rebound [4] - **Supply situation**: With the improvement of the weather, shipping has gradually recovered to a high level, port arrivals have increased, and port inventories have decreased [4] - **Technical analysis**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, breaking through important resistance levels above, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4] - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and consider the market from a strong - volatile perspective [4] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron - ore varieties, such as McFadden powder and Jinbuba powder, showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the price of McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) was 778 yuan/wet - ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and up 0.13% from the previous week [4] - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and futures monthly spreads of iron ore also changed. For example, the DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 21 yuan/dry - ton, up 0.5 compared to the previous situation [4] - **Shipping and inventory**: Overseas iron - ore shipping increased, port arrivals decreased in some areas, and port inventories decreased. For example, Australian iron - ore shipping was 1628.8 tons, up 4.93% from the previous week, and the total port inventory was 17098.4 tons, down 0.52% from the previous week [4] 3.3 Industry News - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, up 1.44 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.18 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week and down 3.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average iron - water production was 228.15 tons, up 6.95 tons from the previous week and down 8.11 tons from the same period last year [6] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17098.40 tons, down 89.12 tons from the previous week; the total inventory at 47 ports was 17814.18 tons, down 133.14 tons from the previous week [6] - According to Gangyin E - commerce data, the total urban inventory this week was 1200.88 tons, down 0.87% from the previous week. The total inventory of construction steel this week was 644.61 tons, up 0.04% from the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing. However, the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic outlook on the fundamentals. The sharp increase in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices [2]. - The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, iron ore demand is expected to increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised production costs on both the supply and demand sides. The relaxation of restrictions on the port clearance of Newman powder and the improvement in weather conditions have led to an increase in shipments and arrivals, and port inventories have reached record highs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of black - series commodities are running strongly in the short term. The total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills increased this week, inventories decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market may have entered the seasonal de - stocking state [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, it stepped back to the support of the lower moving average. It is more likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,135 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.48% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.82% from last week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 4.11% from last week; the hot - roll production was 3.0021 million tons, an increase of 1.68% from last week. The social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 0.86% from last week, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 2.97% from last week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, but the daily average hot - metal output decreased by 64,000 tons to 2.212 million tons. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, hot - metal output is expected to gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Shipments have gradually recovered to a high level, arrivals have increased, and port inventories have reached record highs [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 807.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 1.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 107.15 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.15% from the previous day and up 3.29% from last week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments were 16.288 million tons, an increase of 4.93% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 5.226 million tons, an increase of 11.29% from last week. The northern six - port arrivals were 12.302 million tons, a decrease of 16.00% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (45 ports in total) was 3.3233 million tons, an increase of 1.64% from last week [4][9]. 3.3. Industry News - The UK government announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported steel exceeding the quota level, and the overall quota level will be reduced by 60% starting from July 1 [11]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.969 million tons, a 33,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the raw coal inventory was 5.367 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease from the previous week; the daily average production of clean coal was 798,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the clean coal inventory was 2.541 million tons, a 236,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [11]. - As of the week of March 19, rebar production increased for three consecutive weeks, factory and social inventories changed from increasing to decreasing, and apparent demand increased for four consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 4.11% from last week; rebar apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, an increase of 17.69% from last week [11]. - Due to the chaos in the global energy market caused by the Iranian war, coal prices have risen sharply. Indonesia will allow miners to increase coal production and is studying an export tax on coal [11]. - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country was 38 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 57 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 97 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 87 yuan/ton [12].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the synthetic rubber and natural rubber markets, particularly the price dynamics of butadiene and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Key Points and Arguments Synthetic Rubber and Butadiene Dynamics - The price of butadiene is expected to remain strong due to tight fundamentals, low inventory levels, and robust export demand, despite geopolitical tensions [3][4][5]. - The current price discrepancy between SBR and butadiene is abnormal, with SBR prices lower than butadiene by several hundred yuan per ton, which is expected to correct [2][5][8]. - A significant portion of SBR production capacity is expected to be reduced due to losses, which will accelerate inventory depletion and support price increases [1][5][8]. Natural Rubber Market Conditions - Natural rubber fundamentals are currently not strong, with high inventory levels leading to a lack of market attention [6][7][8]. - The price of natural rubber has increased from 15,000 yuan/ton to 16,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by rising SBR prices [6][7]. - The market is transitioning to a seasonal inventory reduction logic, with expectations of decreased imports from April to June, which could support price increases [7][8]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to significant disruptions in oil and chemical supply chains, affecting the production of butadiene and SBR [5][6][10]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz poses long-term risks to global oil and chemical supplies, potentially keeping butadiene prices elevated [5][10]. Demand and Supply Outlook - Despite concerns over domestic automotive sales, the demand for natural rubber is expected to remain stable due to strong tire exports, which could offset domestic declines [10][11]. - The overall demand for natural rubber in 2026 is projected to be flat compared to 2025, with potential growth in tire exports due to global energy issues [10][11]. Price Trends and Future Expectations - SBR prices are expected to have a significant upward potential, with estimates suggesting at least a 2,000 yuan/ton increase if butadiene prices remain stable [5][8]. - The market is not expected to see a significant downturn in natural rubber prices, as strong SBR prices provide support [8][9]. Inventory and Production Insights - The inventory levels for natural rubber are currently high, but recent trends indicate a potential for inventory reduction, which could lead to price increases [6][8]. - The production capacity for SBR is expected to decrease in the near term, which will help in correcting the current price discrepancies [1][5][8]. Regulatory Impact - Recent news regarding anti-dumping duties on imported halogenated butyl rubber from Japan and Canada is not expected to impact the SBR market significantly, as it is a continuation of existing policies [15]. Weather and Production Forecasts - Weather conditions for rubber production in 2026 are expected to be favorable, with no significant issues anticipated for the opening of rubber tapping [16][17]. Additional Important Points - The market is currently experiencing a shift in trading logic, moving away from traditional bearish patterns towards a more optimistic outlook based on seasonal inventory dynamics [7][8]. - The relationship between synthetic rubber prices and natural rubber prices is becoming increasingly significant, with synthetic rubber prices providing a floor for natural rubber prices [8][9].