据德新社报道，默茨在信中说，迄今采取的政策措施尚未充分提升德国企业竞争力。他呼吁政府采取果 断的政治和立法行动，切实改善企业经营环境，推动经济增长。 德国经济在2023年和2024年连续两年出现萎缩。德国多家经济研究机构2025年12月发布的冬季预测报告 显示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响，2025年德国经济预计仅增长0.1%。 德国总理默茨近日在致执政联盟成员的一封信中表示，德国经济形势在某些领域"非常严峻"，2026年应 将提振经济作为首要任务。 默茨自2025年5月上任以来，承诺通过大规模公共支出、加大国防和基础设施投资等措施重振德国经 济。但企业界普遍认为，改革推进速度仍显不足。 分析人士指出，德国经济长期面临能源价格高企、全球需求疲弱和结构性改革推进缓慢等难题。2025 年，美国加征关税等因素对出口构成新的压力，进一步增加了德国经济复苏难度。 （文章来源：新华网） ...

作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 封图 | 新华社 从"'美国治下的和平'落幕"到"德国不是'大国博弈中的棋子'"，年末德国总理默茨在国际舞台上频频 发声，试图为欧洲在地缘政治的迷雾中指明方向。 2月大选、5月新政府组建，作为欧洲最大经济体，从对美欧关系的强势回应，到组局欧洲为乌克兰 在俄乌冲突解决中出谋划策，默茨新政府半年多来在外交舞台上的表现可圈可点。 但反观德国经济，在德国联邦统计局公布本年度经济增速前，德国经济已在2023年和2024年连续下 滑，国内生产总值（GDP）分别缩水0.3%和0.2%。今年12月中旬，德国多家重要经济研究机构分 别发布的冬季预测报告显示，受对美国出口明显下滑等因素影响， 2025年德国经济预计仅增长 0.1%，较秋季预测的0.2%增幅再度下调。 缘何当前的德国在政治与经济领域出现如此"温差"？在同济大学德国研究中心副主任伍慧萍教授看 来，这背后恰恰折射出当前德国的内政外交正处于冷战结束以来前所未有的转型中。 2025.12. 22 本文字数：2261，阅读时长大约4分钟 在对俄乌冲突的调解中，伍慧萍表示，"在欧洲可能在乌克兰问题被架空的背景下，默茨主动组 局，'搬出桌子、坐上位' ...

本文字数：2413，阅读时长大约5分钟 2025.11. 28 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 在经历了超过五年的停滞之后，德国经济可能正在显现复苏迹象。 欧盟在近期发布的最新预测中表示，预计德国经济在2026年和2027年都将增长1.2%。 德国联邦统计局发布数据也显示，德国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）保持平稳，避免了经济衰退。与此同时，德国9月 份工业订单和产出以及出口均有所回升。德国联邦银行表示，在服务业扩张和工业部门企稳的推动下，预计第四季度将实 现温和增长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家在近日访问德国后发表声明表示，德国政府对债务刹车机制进行了具有里程碑意义的改 革，预计这将有助于推动经济逐步复苏。 "复苏指日可待。"德意志银行首席德国经济学家温克勒（Robin Winkler）表示，"我们只需要等待财政刺激措施真正发 挥作用。" 第一财经采访的多位学者和德国经济学家均指出，作为欧洲最大经济体，德国近年来遭受一系列打击，包括地缘政治冲突 带来的能源成本飙升、美国提高对德出口关税以及在汽车等关键领域面临激烈竞争等，但这些挫折也给德国政策制定者和 企业敲响了警钟，他们更加重视增加投资、提高借贷规模和增加 ...

Core Insights - The November German Business Climate Index released by the Ifo Institute decreased from 88.4 in October to 88.1 in November, indicating a decline in optimism regarding the recovery of the German economy [2] - The decline in the index suggests a spreading pessimism among German business executives about the potential for economic recovery [2] - The drop in the index was greater than most economists had anticipated, as they had expected a slight increase for November [2] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The Ifo Business Climate Index serves as an important barometer for observing the economic trends in Germany [2] - The significant decline in confidence was particularly noted in the manufacturing and retail sectors [2] Expert Commentary - Clemens Fuest, the president of the Ifo Institute, stated that the data reflects skepticism about the ability of the German economy to recover [2]

Core Insights - The German Economic Expert Committee forecasts weak economic growth for Germany in 2025 and 2026, lower than previous expectations, attributing this to U.S. tariff policies hindering recovery [1][3]. Economic Performance - The report indicates that Germany's GDP growth for this year is projected at 0.2%, with a revised forecast of 0.9% for 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 1% and below the German government's expectation of 1.3% [3]. - After two years of recession, Germany's economy is experiencing minimal growth, necessitating improvements in productivity, innovation, and investment to return to a growth trajectory [3]. Global Trade and Protectionism - The current global economic landscape is characterized by protectionist tendencies and unpredictable U.S. trade policies, negatively impacting Germany as an export-oriented nation [5]. - The decline in global trade poses significant challenges for Germany, which has not benefited from the economic recovery in import and export markets due to U.S. tariffs and the appreciation of the euro [5]. Domestic Economic Measures - The German government has implemented a series of economic stimulus measures, including increased investment, simplified approval processes, and expanded infrastructure projects [7]. - However, experts argue that to overcome low growth, Germany must achieve breakthroughs in digitalization, reduce energy costs, and enhance foreign trade, as short-term stimulus measures may not yield long-term results [7]. Recommendations for Future Growth - The German Economic Expert Committee emphasizes the need to eliminate trade barriers within the EU, strengthen capital markets, and address fragmentation in the defense market to fully leverage opportunities in the European single market [5].

Group 1 - Over one-third (36%) of German companies plan to lay off employees by 2026, with only 18% expecting to create new jobs [2][3] - Three-quarters of German companies anticipate that their production in 2026 will be lower or at best the same as current levels [2] - The current business expectations for 2026 are less optimistic compared to earlier surveys conducted in spring [2] Group 2 - The industrial sector in Germany is particularly bleak, with 41% of industrial companies planning layoffs and only 15% intending to hire [4] - 36% of industrial firms predict a decline in production next year, while only 27% expect growth [4] - The industrial sector is facing significant challenges from trade disputes, geopolitical instability, and rising costs, which are weakening competitiveness [4] Group 3 - Despite the economic challenges, some German companies are still keen on overseas investments, particularly in China [6][7] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Germany have shown resilience, with slight sales growth and record-high employment numbers [7] - The investment willingness among SMEs remains low due to rising costs, but there are signs of cautious recovery in investment [7]

Economic Outlook - The DIHK's economic survey indicates that despite government reforms, there are no signs of recovery in the German economy, with business confidence remaining low [1] - The survey, covering approximately 23,000 companies, predicts stagnation for 2023 and only a slight growth of 0.7% in 2024, which is significantly lower than most economists' forecasts [1] - The German economy is expected to experience two consecutive years of recession, with a slight growth anticipated in 2025 and a potential growth rate exceeding 1% in 2026 [1] Business Investment Sentiment - The DIHK economic climate index has decreased by 1 point to 93.8, indicating a persistently pessimistic outlook [1] - Only 15% of surveyed companies expect economic conditions to improve in the next 12 months, while a quarter anticipate worsening conditions [1] - Investment intentions remain low, with only one-fifth of companies planning to increase investments and one-third intending to cut back on investments [1] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is facing challenges, with only 10% of companies planning to hire more employees, while 25% are considering layoffs [2] - A significant 56% of companies identify labor costs as a major operational risk, influenced by rising social insurance contributions and recent minimum wage increases [2] - The DIHK CEO emphasizes the need for the government to accelerate efforts to reduce burdens on businesses to restore confidence [2]

Group 1 - The German business climate index rose from 87.7 in September to 88.4 in October, indicating improved confidence among German enterprises [1][2] - The index is based on surveys from approximately 9,000 companies across manufacturing, services, trade, and construction sectors [2] - Manufacturing, services, and trade indicators showed improvement, while the construction sector experienced a slight decline [2] Group 2 - Analysts express mixed feelings about the index's rise, suggesting it reflects both positive and negative aspects of the German economy [3] - Reports from various institutions indicate expectations of economic improvement in Germany next year, supported by government fiscal plans [3] - The ZEW economic sentiment index and the composite purchasing managers' index also showed positive trends, suggesting better-than-expected economic conditions [3] Group 3 - Despite the rise in the business climate index, significant concerns remain regarding job stability, particularly in the automotive and metal industries [4] - Major companies like Porsche reported a drastic decline in profits, with a 99% drop in sales profit compared to the previous year [4] - The export-oriented nature of the German economy continues to be affected by unpredictable foreign trade policies from the U.S. [4] Group 4 - The index's increase is attributed to more optimistic expectations for the coming months, although current business conditions have been slightly downgraded [6] - Structural challenges in the German economy persist, with over 70% of surveyed companies considering relocating production or investing in other regions [6] - Despite a 25% increase in government spending since 2015, corporate investment has stagnated, returning to 2015 levels [6] Group 5 - Some economists warn that without comprehensive reforms, Germany may face a prolonged period of stagnation [7] - The current economic situation is described as dramatic, with long-term recession concerns highlighted by experts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Trump administration to impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks has negatively impacted the already fragile state of the German automotive industry, leading to significant job cuts and restructuring efforts among major manufacturers [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs and Economic Conditions - The German automotive sector is struggling with weakened demand, high labor and energy costs, and increased competition from rapidly developing manufacturers, exacerbated by the U.S. tariff policies [4][5]. - Bosch, Germany's largest automotive parts supplier, announced plans to cut 13,000 jobs over the next five years, signaling a critical warning for the German industrial sector [2][9]. - The DAX index's structure is expected to undergo a fundamental shift by 2025, with the automotive and parts industry’s weight dropping from approximately 21% in 2015 to less than 10% [4]. Group 2: Job Cuts and Corporate Restructuring - Major German automotive companies, including Bosch, Continental, Schaeffler, and ZF, are implementing significant layoffs and cost-cutting measures due to ongoing pressures [5][8]. - Volkswagen plans to cut 35,000 jobs in Germany by 2030, while Bosch is set to reduce 18,500 positions, primarily in its mobility and autonomous driving divisions [8]. - The overall German automotive industry has eliminated about 55,000 jobs in the past two years, with projections indicating further job losses in the coming years [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Forecast and Recovery - A joint economic forecast from five major German economic research institutions predicts that Germany's economy will grow by only 0.2% in 2025, hindered by U.S. tariff policies and structural issues [10][11]. - The report highlights that the manufacturing sector's recovery is sluggish, with high energy and labor costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and declining competitiveness limiting growth prospects [11]. - The German government has attempted to boost confidence through increased military spending and a €100 billion "Made in Germany" investment plan, but tangible results have yet to materialize [11][12].

Core Insights - The recent announcement by the Trump administration to impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks has negatively impacted the already fragile state of the German automotive industry [1][2] - Bosch, Germany's largest automotive parts supplier, plans to cut 13,000 jobs over the next five years, signaling a critical warning for the industrial sector [1][6] - German Chancellor Merz is set to host an automotive summit on October 9, with various stakeholders expected to attend, amid ongoing challenges in the automotive sector [1] Industry Overview - The automotive and parts sector's weight in the DAX index has significantly decreased from approximately 21% in 2015 to below 10% by 2025, indicating a fundamental shift in the industry structure [2] - German automotive manufacturers are struggling with weakened demand, high labor and energy costs, and increasing competition from rapidly developing manufacturers [2][3] - Major companies like Daimler Trucks and Volkswagen's Traton saw their stock prices drop following the tariff announcement [2] Employment Impact - Bosch's job cuts are part of a broader trend, with other companies like Continental, Schaeffler, and ZF also reducing positions and expenses due to economic pressures [3][5] - Volkswagen is limiting production and temporarily closing two electric vehicle factories in Germany, with plans to cut 35,000 jobs by 2030 [3][5] - The German automotive industry has already eliminated approximately 55,000 jobs over the past two years, with expectations of further job losses in the coming years [5] Economic Forecast - A joint economic forecast from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a 0.2% growth for the German economy in 2025, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [7][8] - The report highlights that while the service sector is growing, the manufacturing sector's recovery remains weak due to high costs and a lack of structural reforms [8] - Germany's reliance on exports, which has historically been around 70%, makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks like tariffs [8] Government Response - The Merz government has attempted to boost confidence through increased military spending and a €100 billion "Made in Germany" investment plan, but these efforts have yet to yield significant results [8][9] - There are indications that some German automakers are shifting their business models to take on defense contracts, which could provide some economic relief [9]