2025.09.29 本文字数：2358，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 冯迪凡 特朗普政府近期宣布的对进口重型卡车征收关税25%的消息，又往德国汽车业脆弱的现状上泼了一盆凉 水。 而德国最大的汽车零部件供应商博世(Bosch)宣布未来五年将裁减1.3万个岗位的消息，"是最后一记警 钟，刺痛了德国的工业心脏。"德国巴登-符腾堡州经济、劳工和旅游部长妮可·霍夫迈斯特-克劳特 （Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut）如此表示。 据报道，面对德国汽车疲于应对特朗普关税、销量下滑以及利润预警之际，德国总理默茨计划于10月9 日主办一场汽车峰会，预计德国多位部长、州长、主要制造商和供应商以及员工代表都将出席。 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博士生导师赵永升接受第一财经记者采访时表 示，以目前的德国经济数据和现状来看，德国经济仍然没有走出危机的迹象，作为欧洲"经济火车头"， 考虑到关税影响以及经济产业结构的调整，彻底复苏可能要等到2026年之后。 来源：新华社 博世敲响最后警钟 高盛的一份报告显示，德国DAX指数的行业结构在2025年发生根本性转变，曾经占主导地位的汽车及 零部件行业 ...

Core Insights - The recent announcement by the Trump administration to impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks has negatively impacted the already fragile state of the German automotive industry [1][2] - Bosch, Germany's largest automotive parts supplier, plans to cut 13,000 jobs over the next five years, signaling a critical warning for the industrial sector [1][6] - German Chancellor Merz is set to host an automotive summit on October 9, with various stakeholders expected to attend, amid ongoing challenges in the automotive sector [1] Industry Overview - The automotive and parts sector's weight in the DAX index has significantly decreased from approximately 21% in 2015 to below 10% by 2025, indicating a fundamental shift in the industry structure [2] - German automotive manufacturers are struggling with weakened demand, high labor and energy costs, and increasing competition from rapidly developing manufacturers [2][3] - Major companies like Daimler Trucks and Volkswagen's Traton saw their stock prices drop following the tariff announcement [2] Employment Impact - Bosch's job cuts are part of a broader trend, with other companies like Continental, Schaeffler, and ZF also reducing positions and expenses due to economic pressures [3][5] - Volkswagen is limiting production and temporarily closing two electric vehicle factories in Germany, with plans to cut 35,000 jobs by 2030 [3][5] - The German automotive industry has already eliminated approximately 55,000 jobs over the past two years, with expectations of further job losses in the coming years [5] Economic Forecast - A joint economic forecast from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a 0.2% growth for the German economy in 2025, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [7][8] - The report highlights that while the service sector is growing, the manufacturing sector's recovery remains weak due to high costs and a lack of structural reforms [8] - Germany's reliance on exports, which has historically been around 70%, makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks like tariffs [8] Government Response - The Merz government has attempted to boost confidence through increased military spending and a €100 billion "Made in Germany" investment plan, but these efforts have yet to yield significant results [8][9] - There are indications that some German automakers are shifting their business models to take on defense contracts, which could provide some economic relief [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Trump administration to impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks has further exacerbated the already fragile state of the German automotive industry, leading to significant job cuts and restructuring efforts among major manufacturers and suppliers [2][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs and Economic Conditions - The German automotive sector is struggling with declining sales, profit warnings, and the impact of U.S. tariffs, prompting a summit hosted by Chancellor Merz to address these challenges [2][5]. - Economic experts indicate that Germany has not yet emerged from its economic crisis, with a full recovery potentially not occurring until after 2026 due to tariff impacts and necessary structural adjustments [2][5][14]. Group 2: Job Cuts and Corporate Restructuring - Bosch announced plans to cut 13,000 jobs over the next five years, signaling a broader trend of layoffs across the German automotive industry, including major players like Daimler, Volkswagen, and Ford [2][10]. - The automotive industry has already seen approximately 55,000 jobs eliminated over the past two years, with projections indicating that tens of thousands more jobs could be lost by 2030 [9][10]. Group 3: Shift in Industry Structure - A report from Goldman Sachs highlights a fundamental shift in the DAX index's industry structure, with the automotive and parts sector's weight dropping from about 21% in 2015 to less than 10% [5]. - The transition to electric vehicles is slower than anticipated, leading to increased pressure on German manufacturers to downsize and restructure [7][12]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - A joint economic forecast from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a 0.2% growth for Germany in 2025, with manufacturing recovery remaining weak due to high energy and labor costs [14][15]. - The reliance on exports, which has historically been around 70% for Germany, makes the economy particularly vulnerable to external shocks like U.S. tariffs [16].

德国总理默茨计划于10月9日主办一场汽车峰会。 特朗普政府近期宣布的对进口重型卡车征收关税25%的消息，又往德国汽车业脆弱的现状上泼了一盆凉 水。 而德国最大的汽车零部件供应商博世(Bosch)宣布未来五年将裁减1.3万个岗位的消息，"是最后一记警 钟，刺痛了德国的工业心脏。"德国巴登-符腾堡州经济、劳工和旅游部长妮可·霍夫迈斯特-克劳特 （Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut）如此表示。 据报道，面对德国汽车疲于应对特朗普关税、销量下滑以及利润预警之际，德国总理默茨计划于10月9 日主办一场汽车峰会，预计德国多位部长、州长、主要制造商和供应商以及员工代表都将出席。 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博士生导师赵永升接受第一财经记者采访时表 示，以目前的德国经济数据和现状来看，德国经济仍然没有走出危机的迹象，作为欧洲"经济火车头"， 考虑到关税影响以及经济产业结构的调整，彻底复苏可能要等到2026年之后。 博世敲响最后警钟 高盛的一份报告显示，德国DAX指数的行业结构在2025年发生根本性转变，曾经占主导地位的汽车及 零部件行业权重已从2015年的约21%下降至不足10%。 当前， ...