市公司 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 149.40 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.42 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 176.00/123.70 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,201.88 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 798.27 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9103 | 博快递-W 盈利改善与行业分化加剧有望共振 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 资料来源：Bloomberg 不断运输 2025 年 11 月 25 日 相关研究 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wanqyi@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

经济要闻 东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 4.深圳：11 月 25 日，我国首个专注于光量子计算机制造的工厂于昨日在广 东深圳南山区正式建成，并成功下线首台具备 1000 量子比特计算能力的光量 子计算机。该制造基地占地约 5000 平方米，集研发、生产与检测功能于一体， 致力于推动光量子计算机实现工程化、标准化和规模化制造。整个生产流程 高度复杂，涵盖 7 个主要制程阶段，包含 223 道具体工序，涉及超过 1000 个操作步骤。其核心技术在于精确引导光子进入指定计算区域，保持稳定间 距并实现高速持续运行，通过精密测量完成单次计算任务，单台设备可在毫 秒内完成一次运算，每日可执行数万次计算操作。（资料来源：同花顺） 1.新华社：11 月 24 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近 平指出，上个月我们在韩国釜山成功举行会晤，达成很多重要共识，为中美 关系这艘巨轮稳健前行校准航向、注入动力，也向世界传递积极信号。釜山 会晤以来，中美关系总体稳定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再 次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反复验证 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [39] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of express delivery volume has decreased to a low level, with October's national express service business volume reaching 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, marking the lowest growth rate of the year [1][10] - The decline in the growth rate is attributed to a decrease in the enthusiasm for this year's Double Eleven shopping festival, as consumers are becoming more rational and impulsive spending is reduced due to prolonged promotional periods and consumption downgrade [2][7] - The express delivery companies are showing a divergence in strategies, with companies like Yunda experiencing a significant drop in growth rate, while companies like YTO maintain a relatively high growth rate due to a strong desire to increase market share [2][17] - The average revenue per piece for the major express companies has continued to rise, but the extent of the increase varies among companies, indicating a clear differentiation in strategies [3][28] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Industry - In October, the express delivery business volume reached 17.6 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The same-city business volume decreased by 7.4%, while the intercity business volume increased by 9.6% [10][20] - The trend of "anti-involution" has been forming since July, leading to a significant decline in growth rates [7][10] 2. Express Delivery Volume - The express delivery volume growth rate has further declined in October, which is believed to be related to the cooling of the Double Eleven shopping festival [10][17] 3. Average Revenue per Piece - The average revenue per piece for the major express companies has shown a continued increase, with Shentong, YTO, and Yunda experiencing month-on-month increases of 2.8%, 0.9%, and 4.5% respectively [28][29] - The average revenue per piece for the industry has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.0% [26][28] 4. Structural Changes - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) in October was 87.0, an increase of 1.8 compared to the same period last year, indicating a slight increase in market concentration [35][36] 5. Investment Recommendations - The current anti-involution trend is expected to have strong sustainability, leading to a high-quality transformation in the industry. Companies are encouraged to focus on service quality rather than solely on volume [39]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to recover as the trend of reducing competition continues, with a focus on companies like YTO Express, ZTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, which show potential for growth and valuation recovery [1] Industry Volume and Price - As of October 2025, the express delivery industry's business volume growth rate is 7.9%, surpassing the growth rate of physical online retail sales at 4.9% and social consumer goods retail sales at 2.9% [1] - The average revenue per delivery in the express delivery industry is 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00% and a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, influenced by the trend of smaller packages and localized price competition [1] Regional Volume and Price - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for express delivery business volume in different regions are +6.7% for Class I areas, +12.6% for Class II areas, and +23.2% for Class III areas, with non-grain-producing areas showing significantly higher growth than grain-producing areas [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for average revenue per delivery in these regions are -2.5% for Class I areas, -5.0% for Class II areas, and -12.3% for Class III areas, indicating a notable easing of price competition in grain-producing areas [2] Company Volume and Price - In October 2025, the year-on-year business volume growth rates for major companies are as follows: YTO Express +12.82%, Yunda Express -5.11%, Shentong Express +3.98%, and SF Express +26.26%, with YTO Express and SF Express outperforming the industry average [3] - The year-on-year revenue per delivery growth rates for these companies are: YTO Express -3.46%, Yunda Express +4.46%, Shentong Express +7.39%, and SF Express -9.97%, indicating a significant price recovery in the context of reduced competition, particularly for Yunda Express and Shentong Express [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company has shown growth in business volume despite a decrease in profit margins, with a focus on improving operational efficiency through technology [3][8]. - The "anti-involution" policy in the express delivery industry is expected to lead to more rational pricing, which, combined with seasonal demand, may enhance both volume and pricing in the future [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 37.493 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48.15% to RMB 730 million [3][8]. - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 1.424 billion, RMB 1.882 billion, and RMB 2.197 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -25.6%, +32.2%, and +16.7% respectively [5][10]. - The average revenue per package decreased by 6.31% to RMB 1.95, while the total volume of packages delivered increased by 12.98% to 19.143 billion [8][10]. Valuation Metrics - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.49, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.4, 11.6, and 10.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][10]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 21.889 billion, with a circulating share count of 2,815.13 million [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the combination of the "anti-involution" policy and seasonal demand will drive both volume and price increases in the express delivery sector [8]. - The ongoing development of the rural express delivery network is expected to release additional demand, providing growth opportunities for the company [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][8] Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 38.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 756 million yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year [5] - The industry is experiencing a trend of price increases due to anti-involution policies, leading to a significant improvement in pricing despite a slight decrease in volume growth [6] - The company’s business volume reached 6.52 billion parcels in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with an average revenue per parcel of 2.05 yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the acquisition of Daniao, which has received antitrust approval, potentially enriching its product matrix and continuing to create value [8] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s revenue was 38.57 billion yuan, with a Q3 revenue of 13.55 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year growth [5] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.32 billion yuan, 1.73 billion yuan, and 2.10 billion yuan respectively, with a significant growth rate of 26.73% in 2025 [8] - The company’s operating costs for Q3 were 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while maintaining stable expense management [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.68 yuan in 2024 to 1.37 yuan in 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's performance is recovering in Q3 2025, with revenue of 54.16 billion yuan (+9.7%) and net profit of 2.88 billion yuan (-1.8%) for the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 18.27 billion yuan (+8.7%) and net profit was 1.05 billion yuan (+11.0%) [1][8] - The company has seen a higher growth rate in parcel volume compared to the industry, with a market share of 15.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The "anti-involution" measures implemented by regulators have led to a recovery in single-ticket prices [1][9] - The company is expected to maintain its capital expenditure at around 8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting its ongoing network improvement and market expansion efforts [2][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-ticket express net profit of 0.14 yuan, showing a stable recovery trend. The single-ticket transportation cost was 0.36 yuan, down 0.03 yuan year-on-year, while the single-ticket transfer cost was 0.26 yuan, down 0.01 yuan year-on-year [2][14] - The company’s net profit for the express business (excluding air and international operations) grew by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 4.30 billion yuan, 4.90 billion yuan, and 5.51 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7%, +14%, and +12% [3][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the short-term positive effects of the "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery industry, which will help in price and performance recovery [3][16] Capital Expenditure and Market Position - The company’s capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 was 6.3 billion yuan, an increase of 34% year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its market share [2][14] - The company is actively adjusting its business model, resulting in a reduction of losses in its air and international business by 0.65 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yunda Holdings (002120) [1][5] Core Views - Yunda Holdings is one of the leading domestic e-commerce express companies, with expectations for continued operational and volume growth [1][4] - The company reported a significant year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025, indicating a need to monitor profitability recovery during peak seasons [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.15% [2] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 12.660 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.29%, with a net profit of 201 million yuan, down 45.21% year-on-year [2] - The average revenue per package in Q3 increased slightly by 0.03 yuan, benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry [2][4] Business Volume and Market Share - The company’s business volume for the first three quarters increased by 12.98% year-on-year, but its market share decreased by 0.5 percentage points [3] - In Q3 2025, the company handled 6.417 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 6.61%, but this growth lagged behind the industry average growth rate of 13.3% [3] Pricing and Competitive Landscape - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a significant increase in express delivery prices, with expectations for continued price increases during the peak season [4] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of seasonal volume and pricing on the company's profitability recovery [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for Yunda Holdings from 2025 to 2027 are 1.388 billion yuan, 1.845 billion yuan, and 2.069 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.2, 11.4, and 10.2 [5][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the express delivery industry due to operational improvements [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.53 RMB [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.66 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.12%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 201 million RMB, down 45.21% year-on-year and 3.11% quarter-on-quarter, which was below expectations [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in Q4 2025 due to the arrival of peak season and the effects of price increases [1][4]. - The company has been optimizing its network resources and leveraging automation to reduce costs faster than revenue growth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the medium to long term [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 6.68%, down 1.86 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.83 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company has shown excellent cost control with a period expense ratio of 3.6% [3]. - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 37.49 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million RMB, down 48.15% year-on-year [1]. Market Position - The company’s average revenue per package improved compared to the industry, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% in average price per package, reaching 1.95 RMB. However, the volume growth was slower than the industry average [2]. - The company’s pricing recovery has been slower than the industry but has shown better recovery levels, with average prices increasing in August and September [4]. Profitability Forecast - The report has adjusted the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected net profits of 1.26 billion RMB, 1.98 billion RMB, and 2.33 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.73% [5]. - The target price has been revised down to 8.53 RMB from a previous 9.55 RMB, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 38.57 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 756 million RMB, up 15.81% year-over-year [4][6]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 13.55 billion RMB, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 302 million RMB, which is a 40.32% increase year-over-year [4][6]. - The company has successfully exited a prolonged price-cutting cycle, with the average revenue per package increasing to 2.05 RMB, a year-over-year rise of 2.15% [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the transportation sector, with a market capitalization of 22.375 billion RMB and a current share price of 15.25 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.68%, with a slight decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-over-year. However, Q3 gross margin improved to 6.18%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 1.97%, up 0.06 percentage points year-over-year, while Q3 net profit margin was 2.38%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-over-year [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in single-package revenue, driven by industry price stabilization and the company's strategic acquisition of Daniao Logistics, which enhances its service offerings [6]. - Profit forecasts have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 1.4 billion RMB, 2 billion RMB, and 2.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 33%, 42%, and 14% [6][8].