1月2日，中指研究院发布的房地产市场报告显示，2025年全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势，核心城市 二手房在"以价换量"下维持稳定规模，改善性需求成为新房市场核心支撑。该机构认为，叠加2025年年 末北京政策优化及增值税减免等新政落地，预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产。 另以深圳为例，据乐有家研究中心监测，自2025年3月以来，深圳二手房录得量连续10个月超5000套， 其中3月小阳春和12月翘尾创下2个小高峰，分别为7703套，6613套。 此外，据克而瑞数据，成都、杭州、天津、西安、武汉、南京等核心强二线城市二手房市场也走出了内 生驱动下的"独立行情"，凭借"产业-人口"正循环支撑展现出强大的市场内生修复能力，全年成交面积2- 3倍于新房成交规模。 根据机构统计数据，二手房对市场的支撑作用正在进一步凸显。2025年，30城二手住宅成交套数占新房 及二手房合计成交量的比重约为65%，较2024年全年提升4个百分点。 从新房市场表现看，改善性住房需求仍为新房市场的重要支撑。根据中指监测数据，2025年以来，北 京、上海、成都、宁波、合肥等城市高总价改善楼盘去化表现良好，带动30城120平方米以上 ...

1月2日，中指研究院发布的房地产市场报告显示，2025年全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势，核心城市 二手房在"以价换量"下维持稳定规模，改善性需求成为新房市场核心支撑。该机构认为，叠加2025年年 末北京政策优化及增值税减免等新政落地，预计2026年相关政策将继续靠前发力，加快稳地产。 根据中指研究院统计数据，2025年，重点30城二手住宅成交约174万套，同比基本持平。其中，一季度 市场保持较高活跃度，30城二手住宅成交套数同比增长25%，二季度市场有所降温，同比增幅收窄，9 月二手房市场热度有所修复，重点城市二手住宅成交量同比增长13%，带动三季度同比小幅增长1%， 四季度月均成交量相比三季度有所回落，但"以价换量"下仍维持稳定规模。 从新房市场表现看，改善性住房需求仍为新房市场的重要支撑。根据中指监测数据，2025年以来，北 京、上海、成都、宁波、合肥等城市高总价改善楼盘去化表现良好，带动30城120平方米以上户型新房 成交占比持续提升，其中120-144平方米户型占比超30%，改善需求成为新房市场供求主力。具体城市 来看，与2024年同期相比，2025年1-11月，30个代表城市中，20个城市120-1 ...

中新社北京1月1日电 (记者庞无忌)中国主要城市新房与二手房价格分化的走势持续到2025年年末。 中指研究院2026年1月1日发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为每平方 米17084元(人民币，下同)，环比上涨0.28%；同比上涨2.58%。当月，100个城市二手住宅平均价格为每 平方米13016元，环比下跌0.97%；同比下跌8.36%。 中指研究院分析称，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，也是稳地产的关键一年，相关政策有望靠前发力。北 上深等核心城市限制性政策有望继续优化，城中村改造货币化安置、房贷利率调价、购房补贴加力等具 备发力空间。从供给端来看，去年土地市场已在"缩量提质"，各地"好房子"的建设标准也在不断完善， 后续有望继续通过优质供给激发改善性需求。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 2025年12月，在新建住宅方面，深圳、北京、上海、南京等城市均有高端改善性项目入市，带动百城新 房价格环比结构性上涨。二手住宅方面，二手房挂牌量仍在高位，房价继续调整。 今年中国楼市怎么走？2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"。当月，多项房 地产相关政策出 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts that the total urban housing demand in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be approximately 4.98 billion square meters [1] - The new housing market has peaked, but there remains potential in high-tier cities due to significant annual urban population growth [1] - By 2025, new home sales are expected to stabilize at a mid-level, shifting housing demand characteristics from "first-time buyers" to "improvement-driven" [1] - Improvement-driven purchasing decisions are more influenced by income expectations and market outlook [1] - In the short term, there will be pressure on both sales volume and prices in the real estate market [1] - As market inventory decreases and social expectations recover, the real estate sector is anticipated to emerge from its downturn in the latter half of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a notable decline in both new and second-hand housing prices across many cities in China [3][6][9] - The buyer's market is characterized by increased choice and negotiation power for buyers, while sellers face longer selling cycles and challenges in closing deals [6][8][11] - The demographic trends indicate a continued population decline in smaller cities, while larger cities maintain relative stability in property values [9][10] Market Conditions - As of December 2024, 48 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, while 55 cities saw a drop in second-hand housing prices [3] - The average selling cycle for second-hand homes has increased to 75 days, indicating a shift towards a buyer's market [8] - The national urban housing vacancy rate rose to 21.4% in 2024, highlighting a significant number of idle properties [8] Buyer Sentiment - A survey by the China Real Estate Association revealed that 65% of current buyers are driven by rigid demand, with only 7% motivated by investment [3] - The average mortgage interest rate has dropped to 3.71%, providing financial relief for potential buyers [8] Selling Dynamics - Many sellers are motivated by financial needs or property upgrades, but face longer selling times and price reductions [8][11] - The average selling cycle for second-hand homes has increased by 18 days compared to the previous year, reflecting market challenges [8] Regional Disparities - First-tier and strong second-tier cities show more stable property values, while third and fourth-tier cities experience significant price declines [9] - Population trends indicate a negative growth rate of -1.27‰ nationally, with ongoing migration towards larger cities [9] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a period of stable adjustment, with prices fluctuating within a reasonable range rather than experiencing drastic changes [10] - Buyers with genuine housing needs are encouraged to consider purchasing now, while investors should be cautious due to low rental yields and high holding costs [10][11]

Core Insights - The trading structure of new and second-hand houses has changed, with second-hand houses increasingly replacing new houses as the market enters a stock era [1] - From January to October, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand houses nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating stable overall market demand despite a high base from the previous year [3] - Various policies aimed at stabilizing the market are gradually showing positive effects, contributing to a stable total transaction volume compared to last year [5] Group 1 - The transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with second-hand houses accounting for 45% of the total transaction volume [7] - In several cities, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chongqing, the transaction area of second-hand houses has seen a year-on-year growth of over 10% [7] - There is a continuous release of housing demand, particularly for improvement needs, supported by policies such as increased housing provident fund loan limits and purchase subsidies [9]

Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to enter a destocking phase during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with overall housing prices declining and investment demand significantly weakening [1][21]. Macro Factors Impacting Housing Demand and Market Structure - Both total housing demand and supply are likely to contract further, driven by long-term population decline and slower urbanization [2][3]. - The supply side may contract more than the demand side due to high risks for real estate companies and limited investment capacity, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1][2]. - Structural market characteristics will become more pronounced, with urbanization focusing on key city clusters, enhancing competitiveness in high-tier cities [1][4]. Changes in Population and Housing Demand - China is entering a population reduction cycle, with a projected decrease of approximately 4.8 million people by 2030 [2]. - The number of eligible homebuyers is expected to decline by 21 million, with the proportion of this group in the total population dropping from 39.2% to 38% [2]. - However, the structural change in the homebuyer population will support stable growth in improvement demand, particularly in coastal megacities [2][3]. Regional Differentiation in Demand - Demand will increasingly concentrate in key city clusters, with sales in these areas expected to account for 80% of the national total, up from 75% [4]. - Urbanization is projected to increase the urban population to 983 million by 2030, with per capita residential area rising to 44.6 square meters [3][4]. Real Estate Supply and Demand Dynamics - The housing inventory is at a historical high, indicating a serious oversupply situation that will take time to digest [5][10]. - The leverage ratio of households is expected to decline from around 61% to 54% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][10]. Policy Responses to Market Conditions - The overall housing policy will focus on releasing demand and guiding the market towards a balanced supply-demand relationship [13][16]. - Policies will include accelerating the destocking of commercial housing and maintaining a supportive environment for personal home purchases [14][15]. Market Outlook for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The total demand for urban residential building area is projected to be around 3 billion square meters, with an average annual new housing demand of about 600 million square meters [16][21]. - Housing prices are expected to decline at a slower rate, with new home prices projected to drop by 1% annually and second-hand home prices by 2% [17][21]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing is expected to decrease by about 40% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [17][21]. Recommendations for Targeted Policies - Suggestions include significantly lowering home purchase costs, implementing regional housing policies for major cities, and preventing housing financial risks [22][23][24]. - Establishing a real estate stability fund to effectively manage risks and improve market confidence is also recommended [24][25].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities, particularly Shanghai, continues to show positive price trends, with Shanghai's new home prices increasing by over 10% year-on-year in October [1][4] - Eight out of ten major cities reported both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in new home prices for October [2] Price Trends - Shanghai's new home prices rose by 10.7% year-on-year, while other cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw more modest increases ranging from 1% to 3% [3][4] - The average price per square meter in Shanghai reached 61,185 yuan, with a median price of 56,000 yuan [3] Sales Performance - Despite the price increases, new home transaction volumes in Shanghai decreased significantly in October, with a 24% month-on-month drop and a 35% year-on-year decline [5] - The only notable project in October was "Shangyuan" in the Minhang district, which sold 44 units at an average price of approximately 61,601 yuan per square meter [5] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a healthy inventory level in Shanghai, with a de-stocking cycle of 7 to 8 months [6] - Improvement in market sentiment is attributed to the performance of quality projects in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, which are seen as benchmarks for positive development in the real estate sector [4] Regional Comparisons - Hangzhou's new home prices increased by 6.51% year-on-year, with significant sales in high-priced projects, while Chengdu's prices rose by 6.18% year-on-year [7][9] - Chengdu's new home transaction volume reached 85,000 square meters in October, maintaining stability despite a year-on-year decline in sales [9] Future Outlook - The end of the year is expected to see increased supply from real estate companies, which may support new home sales in core cities [9]

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities, particularly Shanghai, continues to show positive price trends, with new home prices in Shanghai increasing by 10.7% year-on-year in October [2][6] - Eight out of ten major cities reported both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in new home prices for October [3] - Despite the price increases, the transaction volume in Shanghai decreased significantly in October, with a 24% month-on-month drop and a 35% year-on-year decline [7] Price Trends - Shanghai's new home prices have risen for 83 consecutive months, with monthly year-on-year increases exceeding 5% since October 2024 [6] - Specific cities showed notable year-on-year price increases: Shanghai (10.7%), Hangzhou (6.51%), and Chengdu (6.18%), while Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, and Guangzhou saw increases between 1.0% and 3.0% [6][11] - The average price per square meter in Shanghai reached 61,185 yuan, with a median price of 56,000 yuan [4] Transaction Volume - In October, Shanghai's new home transaction volume was 740,000 square meters, marking a significant decrease due to high September figures and less appealing product offerings in October [7] - The top-selling projects in Shanghai included high-priced developments, with one project exceeding 214,000 yuan per square meter [9] Market Dynamics - The market in Shanghai is characterized by a relatively low short-term inventory and a healthy absorption cycle of 7-8 months [10] - Improvement in housing demand remains strong, particularly for quality projects in cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu, which have also seen significant sales in high-end segments [11][14] - The overall market is expected to face pressure towards the end of the year, with noticeable declines in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes in key cities [15]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is entering a critical bottoming phase due to intensive policy measures since the second half of 2021, with a projected cumulative sale of approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Policy Signals - The real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase since the second half of 2021, with a decline in new residential property sales. Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been implemented, including a focus on stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][6]. Market Performance - From January to September 2025, the sales area of new residential properties was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year. The sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year, indicating a clear improvement trend despite remaining in negative territory [6][10]. Secondary Market Resilience - The secondary housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in 30 key cities from January to July 2025. By July, the proportion of secondary housing transactions reached 68%, a record high [6][10]. Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing price increases in new homes, while second and third-tier cities face price declines. For instance, new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 6.87% year-on-year in September 2025, marking 27 consecutive months of increases [11][13]. Investment Focus - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing their investments on core cities, with significant land acquisition activity in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, leading to record land prices. For example, a land parcel in Shanghai was sold for 34.135 billion yuan, setting a new record for total land price in the country [13][15]. Demand Shift - The demand structure in the new housing market is shifting towards improvement needs, with larger units (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025. In Beijing, units over 120 square meters made up 42% of sales [16][20]. High-End Market Dynamics - The high-end market is performing well, with significant sales in luxury properties. For instance, over 25 "sunshine plates" (properties sold out on the first day) were recorded in Shanghai, most priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter. However, this segment may face demand exhaustion due to limited overall transaction volume [19][20]. Upcoming Report - The "Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan" report will be officially released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the real estate industry [21].