然而，由于决策者的极度谨慎和意见分歧，此次宽松周期很可能成为现代史上最浅、最漫长的一次。在 过去的五年里，英国央行经历了脱欧、新冠疫情以及随后的供需失衡等多重挑战。大规模的货币与财政 刺激叠加，曾导致英国通胀率飙升至40多年来的最高水平，随后俄乌冲突带来的能源成本飙升进一步加 剧了这一困境。文章提到，英国央行自2021年便开始急于加息，直至去年才开始缓慢地削减借贷成本。 尽管如此，该国的通胀水平仍未稳固回归2%的目标，新的全球贸易壁垒正在迅速兴起，这使得政策制 定者和投资者都难以确定新的经济常态，降息之路依然充满不确定性。 周四（8月7日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3345，跌幅0.05%，昨日收盘报1.3352。路透社专栏作家 MikeDolan撰文指出，市场预期英国央行今晚将降息，把关键利率降至4%，这对于亟需提振的经济而言 无疑是种"解脱"。 英镑兑美元整体技术面仍偏空：日线级别均线呈空头排列，近期先后形成10日与100日均线、30日与55 日均线的死叉；14日动量指标仍处于负值区域。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, Susan Collins, advocates for a "patient" monetary policy approach when assessing the impact of tariffs on the economy [1] Group 1 - Collins anticipates that a gradual normalization of policy will be appropriate later this year, although her views may change significantly as events unfold [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintains its target interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [1] - Starting from the next fiscal year, the Bank of Japan will slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions, decreasing the monthly reduction from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen [3] - The decision to reduce bond purchases was made with an 8 to 1 vote, with one member dissenting, advocating for maintaining the current reduction pace [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's decision to slow down bond purchase reductions reflects concerns over rising long-term government bond yields and market stability [4] - A mid-term review of the reduction plan will take place in June 2026, with the Bank of Japan indicating readiness to respond quickly to rising long-term rates [4] - The central bank's normalization process is critical, especially given the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's export-dependent economy [7] Group 3 - Japan's core consumer inflation rate reached 3.5% in April, significantly exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, driven by rising food prices and labor costs [8] - Long-term bond yields in Japan have reached their highest levels since issuance, prompting speculation about potential adjustments in issuance to calm investor fears [8] - The market is closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's communications for any hints regarding future interest rate hikes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on international oil prices and the subsequent effects on the USD/JPY exchange rate, highlighting the complexities in market reactions to these events [1][5]. Group 1: USD/JPY Exchange Rate Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, maintaining a strong short-term technical structure above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the BOJ signals a prolonged period of monetary easing, the yen may weaken further [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive effect on the yen [5]. - The correlation between the USD and oil prices remains strong, while the yen's safe-haven status is diminishing amid a recovery in market risk appetite [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections in July may introduce fiscal uncertainties, contributing to a structural outflow of capital from Japan [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Predictions - A report from a financial group indicates that if the USD/JPY cannot break through the resistance level of 144.83 to 145.59, it may face technical adjustment pressures, with support levels at 143.80 and 143.20 [6]. - Should the USD/JPY break above 145.55, there is potential for the exchange rate to rise to the 146 to 148 range [6]. - Analysts predict that the USD/JPY could reach as high as 155 by the end of the year due to ongoing structural capital outflows and political uncertainties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency markets, particularly focusing on the performance of the British pound against the US dollar, and highlights the impact of US inflation data and trade negotiations on global currency movements [1][2]. Currency Fluctuations - During the Asian trading session, the British pound showed significant negative volatility against the US dollar, with a decline of -0.62% over one day, the largest among major currencies [2][3]. - The Australian dollar and euro also experienced negative fluctuations, with the Australian dollar declining by -0.27% against the US dollar over one day [2]. British Pound Analysis - There is an increased demand for bearish options on the British pound, with the implied volatility for one-week and two-week put options at 7.6% and 7.7% respectively, following disappointing wage data [4]. - The UK Office for National Statistics reported a decrease in wage growth to 5.2%, the lowest since Q3 of the previous year, which was below economists' expectations of 5.3% [4][6]. Employment and Economic Policies in the UK - In May, the UK saw a reduction of 109,000 jobs, the largest monthly decline since May 2020, which exceeded expectations [6]. - The UK government has raised corporate wage taxes and minimum wage standards, effective from April, which may alleviate inflationary pressures by controlling rising prices [6]. Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen experienced slight negative volatility of -0.05% over four hours, with the USD/JPY pair reaching a high of 145.28, the highest in over a week [7]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor indicated a delay in interest rate hikes due to insufficient confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target, which has weakened market expectations for policy normalization [7]. Australian and New Zealand Dollar Trends - Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed negative volatility patterns, reflecting cautious market sentiment towards risk assets amid ongoing trade negotiations and US inflation data [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has successfully normalized its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB's normalization of policy indicates a shift towards more conventional monetary measures after a period of extraordinary interventions [1]

欧洲央行已成功实现政策正常化。 欧洲央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy：市场波动可能影响美元信心。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP contracted by 0.2% in Q1 2025, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.7% decline, indicating underlying economic resilience [1] - Personal consumption increased by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and business investment rose by 1.1%, contributing positively to GDP growth [1] - Inventory changes contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth, while net exports negatively impacted growth by 0.8 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan remains cautious amid high uncertainty, with Governor Ueda warning about the potential impacts of tariffs on the economy [1] - Current pressures from U.S. tariffs, including a potential 10% comprehensive tariff and a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts, are significantly affecting export profits [1] - Despite a downward adjustment in domestic demand contributions, signals indicate strong momentum in the Japanese economy, with private consumption showing robust growth [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights unprecedented capital outflows from Japanese stock funds, amounting to $11.8 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow on record [1] - Bank stocks in Japan, despite being the best-performing sector globally over the past three years, are showing concerning trends as they fail to rise in tandem with increasing Japanese government bond yields [1][3] - Concerns regarding the Bank of Japan's policy normalization, including the end of negative interest rates and yield curve control, are leading to fears of a rapid tightening of financial conditions [3] Group 2 - The rapid rise in bond yields is interpreted as a sign of doubts about Japan's economic growth potential and resilience, which counteracts the benefits of improved bank net interest margins [3] - After three years of strong performance, the valuation attractiveness of the banking sector has diminished, prompting significant capital to lock in profits amid rising yields [3] - The current situation in the Japanese market, particularly for bank stocks, reflects a critical contradiction where the theoretical benefits of monetary policy shifts are overshadowed by deep concerns about economic outlook and financial stability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The general consensus among institutions is that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with various factors influencing this decision, including economic growth forecasts and inflation expectations. Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation Expectations - Mitsubishi UFJ expects to lower its economic growth and core inflation forecasts, suggesting potential for yen appreciation despite the cautious stance on further rate hikes [1] - Citibank indicates that rising real wages support consumption, but the implementation of tariffs may prevent the Bank of Japan from raising rates this year [1] - Standard & Poor's anticipates no change in Japanese interest rates before the second half of the year, while the central bank's stance will be under scrutiny as inflation continues to rise [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Projections - A Reuters survey shows that 84% of economists expect rates to remain at 0.50% before the end of June, with 52% predicting a rate hike in the third quarter [1] - ANZ forecasts that the Bank of Japan will remain on hold amid trade policy uncertainties, pushing the next rate hike expectation from May to October [1] - IG Group suggests that ongoing tariff uncertainties and economic growth risks will lead to a decision to maintain current rates, although wage growth exceeding inflation could bolster confidence in tightening policy [2] Group 3: Policy Guidance and Forward-Looking Statements - Continuum Economics predicts that the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged and not alter its forward guidance, facing a dilemma due to persistent inflation and tariff uncertainties [2] - Monex Securities expects rates to remain stable, focusing on future outlooks, with the balance between rising inflation and increasing uncertainties being crucial for the rate path [1]