日本央行行长植田和男周四表示，该央行今日维持基准利率不变的决定不存在政策滞后风险，受此影响，美元兑日元持续走高，创2月中旬以来的最高水 平。 隔夜指数互换数据显示，交易员预计12月加息的概率接近50%，明年1月加息的概率约为80%。 在最新发布的季度经济展望报告中，日本央行将本财年经济增长预期从之前的0.6%上调至0.7%。该央行还指出，明年消费者物价指数（CPI）可能放缓至 2%以下，但仍维持核心通胀将在截至2028年初的三年预测期后半段达到目标的观点。 "此次会议——与9月会议一样有两位异议者、CPI预计明年跌破2%以及GDP小幅上调——强化了政策正常化将缓慢且谨慎的观点，"盛宝金融市场（Saxo Markets）驻新加坡首席投资策略师查鲁·查纳纳（Charu Chanana）表示。 日本股市未能守住盘中高点，东证指数（Topix）收涨0.7%，日经225指数（Nikkei 225）勉强上涨并创下历史新高。 在全球市场波动的背景下，日本资产陷入震荡交易。此前中美贸易会谈曾短暂压低美元指数。 "从他的言论来看，市场认为加息可能进一步推迟至明年1月之后，"法国农业信贷银行投资公司（Credit Agricol ...

这位前行长指出，日本央行在过去五次会议上按兵不动的决定，反映了其希望观察美国总统特朗普的关 税政策给日本经济带来的影响。黑田东彦表示，这一影响结果低于此前的预期。他表示："我不确定他 们今天是否会采取行动，但无论如何，他们今天或12月的下一次会议上可能会采取行动。"这番话暗示 他认为年底加息的可能性较高。 黑田东彦这番言论发表于日本央行宣布维持利率不变大约半小时前。日本央行的最新利率决议符合市场 预期，该决议以7比2的比例通过，委员会成员田村直树(Naoki Tamura)和高田创(Hajime Takata)则提议加 息25个基点。市场对这一决议的反应相对平淡，日本10年期国债收益率变化不大，日元微跌。 在成为日本央行行长之前，黑田东彦曾一度是日本的首席外汇官，负责财政部决定是否干预外汇市场。 他表示："2%的通胀目标已经实现，经济增速大约是1.5%，而失业率仅为2.6%。"他暗示，目前的条件 适合日本央行继续加息。周四，仍有两名成员反对维持利率不变，但根据本月初对经济学家的调查，大 多数人预计日本央行下一次加息将在明年1月进行。 前日本央行行长黑田东彦表示，日元可能会升值至1美元兑120-130日元的水平 ...

金价在重测4,380美元一线后承压，盘中下挫逾4%，一度触及4,080美元，目前在4,100美元附近震荡。 短线压力来源于：贸易乐观削弱避险需求；美元反弹提高持有黄金的机会成本；技术指标疲软，RSI与 价格出现背离，提示短期回调风险。尽管短线承压，但中长期基本面仍具支撑，包括央行增持黄金、去 美元化趋势、结构性避险需求及美国政府关门与地缘不确定性。接下来，美元走势及通胀数据将决定市 场对降息预期的调整。 本周核心变量仍为美国CPI/PCE通胀数据及美联储官员表态。单条数据或讲话即可放大市场波动：资产 联动快速传导：美元、利率、黄金及能源价格变化密切相关；事件与流动性风险：政府停摆及会议前后 流动性收缩可能扩大价差与交易成本；操作策略：保持头寸弹性与风险缓冲，避免短线追涨杀跌。中长 期来看，央行增金、去美元化及地缘风险仍为避险资产提供支撑，但短期波动路径仍取决于政策与通胀 信号的兑现情况。 近期市场呈现"消息驱动快速切换"特征：贸易乐观短线提振风险偏好，美元回升压制黄金，日元因经济 数据与加息预期走强，原油受库存及供应预期影响承压。未来几日，美国CPI及美联储表态将决定资金 流向风险资产或避险资产。建议以宏观节 ...

日本央行在本月加息的举动，对于高市早苗政府来说可能过于仓促，高市早苗的一位核心经济顾问表示，将加息时间点定在12月会是一个更好的选择。 "在我看来，10月加息可能比较困难，" 高市早苗的经济政策顾问本田悦朗在周一接受采访时表示，"这取决于宏观经济环境，但如果能在12月加息25个基 点，我觉得没问题。" 尽管此前市场曾猜测日本央行可能在10月有所行动，但本田悦朗的这番言论表明，央行更有可能选择推迟加息。 高市早苗是一位著名的货币宽松政策倡导者，也是前首相安倍晋三的"门徒"，她预计将在10月15日左右的国会投票中，成为日本首位女首相。 本田悦朗是"安倍经济学"的主要设计师之一，该政策主张灵活的财政政策和宽松的货币政策，这也是高市早苗的立场。在"安倍经济学"时代，日本央行与政 府就总体政策目标达成了一致，但将具体细节和操作方法交由央行决定，这一协议至今仍然有效。 本田悦朗表示，高市早苗希望日本央行在加息问题上保持谨慎，尽管她没有提到具体的加息时间表。在过去两年里，本田悦朗为高市早苗提供了特别紧密的 建议。他去年还为高市早苗的《国力研究》（Study of National Power）一书撰写了经济学部分。 由于竞 ...

10月4日，日本自民党迎来历史性时刻——首位女性总裁高市早苗成功当选。作为右翼政治人物的代表人物，她极有可能顺利通过后续首相提名程序，从而 接替石破茂成为日本首位女首相。 这位以撒切尔夫人作为偶像的政治家，能否将"铁娘子"在英国的成功经验移植到日本政坛，时间自会给出答案，但可以确定的是，她的上台必将为日本经济 金融领域带来深刻动荡。 高市早苗的政治立场与已故前首相安倍晋三一脉相承，其核心经济政策被视为"安倍经济学2.0"。她主张的"负责任的积极财政"本质上是积极财政政策与宽 松货币政策的组合。 具体来看，她计划率先废除汽油和柴油临时税率以减少政府收入，同时扩大对医疗、中小企业的补贴投入，形成"减收增支"的财政扩张态势，此举无疑将加 剧日本政府本已严峻的财政状况。 尽管日本长期实行零利率甚至负利率政策，通过借新还旧的方式不断推迟债务到期日，使得国债利息支出长期处于低位。但随着日本逐步摆脱通缩困境，物 价上涨促使日本央行在植田和男行长任内推进政策正常化。 2024年日本央行两次加息将政策利率从-0.1%提升至0.25%，2025年初进一步调整至0.5%。利率上升导致国债利息支出不再趋近于零，利息偿还成为政府资 产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan retains sufficient space for potential interest rate hikes but does not explicitly indicate an action for October, with a growing number of committee members suggesting the necessity for future rate increases due to high inflation levels in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the September monetary policy meeting while announcing plans to reduce holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) acquired during years of large-scale stimulus [1]. - A committee member expressed that it may be time to consider another rate hike, but emphasized the need to assess more data before making a decision [1][3]. - The minutes reveal that while most committee members prefer to wait for more data, the proportion of those advocating for a rate hike is gradually increasing [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a rate hike at the October 30 meeting is estimated at around 70% according to overnight swap indices, although the yen slightly depreciated against the dollar, indicating that investors did not find clear signals for an imminent rate hike [2]. - A committee member suggested that raising rates in September could surprise market participants, indicating a desire for clear policy signals before any adjustments [2][3]. - The upcoming quarterly Tankan survey is expected to show improved confidence among large manufacturing firms, which could further elevate market expectations for a rate hike if confirmed [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - A committee member noted that concerns regarding U.S. tariff policies and overseas risks have eased in the current economic outlook assessment by the Bank of Japan [3]. - The member indicated that it may be time to return to a stance of raising policy rates based on the current economic conditions [4].

Core Points - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% and has initiated a historic move to start reducing its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs), marking a significant step towards exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The monetary policy committee voted 7 to 2 to keep the interest rate unchanged, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point increase to 0.75%, indicating a rise in "hawkish" sentiment within the committee [2]. - The BOJ plans to reduce its ETF and J-REITs holdings by approximately 620 billion yen (around 4.2 billion USD) annually, which suggests a very gradual approach to minimize market disruption [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, influenced by government subsidies that reduced energy prices [4]. - Despite the overall CPI decline, the "core-core" CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, increased by 3.3%, indicating persistent underlying inflation pressures [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - BOJ Governor Ueda stated that if economic and price forecasts are met, the bank will continue to raise interest rates, emphasizing the need to monitor domestic and international economic conditions closely [5]. - Political uncertainties, including leadership changes and potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies, are considered significant factors in the BOJ's policy evaluation [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, awaiting clearer economic conditions amid ongoing economic and political uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The BOJ is assessing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on both domestic and international economies, which is influencing their decision-making process [1][2]. - Japan's economic growth may slow down due to trade policies affecting global growth, but a re-acceleration is anticipated [2]. - The latest data shows Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, a significant drop from July but still above the BOJ's 2% target, indicating the need for vigilance regarding inflation [2]. Group 2: Policy Decisions - The BOJ's decision to keep rates unchanged was widely expected following the resignation of Prime Minister Shinto Abe, but two committee members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike, signaling a potential acceleration in policy normalization [1][3]. - The BOJ has begun selling its holdings of ETFs and REITs, reflecting a hawkish stance that has strengthened the yen and affected the stock market [3][4]. - Analysts expect the BOJ to raise interest rates before January next year, with indications that the internal dynamics of the policy committee are shifting towards a faster normalization of monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates but unexpectedly announced the initiation of ETF sales, marking a significant step towards gradually exiting large-scale stimulus measures [1][2] - The Bank plans to sell ETFs at an annual rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen and real estate REITs at about 5 billion yen per year, with the total ETF holdings valued at around 37 trillion yen [1][3] - Despite the large scale of the planned sales, it would take approximately 112 years to completely liquidate the ETF holdings at the current pace, indicating limited immediate market impact [1][3] Group 2 - The recent meeting signaled a clear hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, with two dissenting votes advocating for an interest rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75%, reflecting growing internal pressure for policy normalization [2][4] - Analysts believe that while the policy shift is significant, the actual market impact is expected to be limited, with some suggesting that the clear path for ETF handling represents an important turning point [5][6] - The impact on different asset classes is anticipated to be varied, with potential structural resistance for major indices like TOPIX and Nikkei, while banks may benefit from a steeper yield curve and improved net interest margins if economic momentum remains stable [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.50%, which aligns with market expectations, despite two committee members voting against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point hike [1] - The policy statement emphasized a moderate recovery in the economy, despite some sectors showing signs of weakness, and highlighted the need to monitor uncertainties affecting financial markets, economic activities, and prices [1] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen strengthened, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping to a low of 147.211, reflecting market reactions to the central bank's stance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the decision to keep rates unchanged indicates the Bank of Japan's cautious approach amid slowing inflation and global uncertainties, signaling readiness to address external fluctuations while assessing the strength of Japan's economic recovery [2] - The narrowing interest rate differentials are expected to lead to a gradual strengthening of the yen, enhancing Japan's purchasing power and supporting domestic demand [2] - The focus is now shifting to the upcoming press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda, which may provide further insights into the central bank's future policy direction [2]