产业认知之变： 从"看不懂"到"离不开" 回望2021年年初，当这个以"活体交割"为特色的期货品种上市时，产业界的反应更多是谨慎与观望。 "生猪期货上市初期，大家觉得这东西有点抽象，风险大，也看不懂。"德康集团生猪期货业务负责人叶 波回忆说。这句话道出了当时许多养殖企业的心态。传统养猪人习惯了面对实体猪群、饲料和猪瘟，屏 幕上跳动的期货价格，似乎与实实在在的养猪事业相距甚远。 中基商贸在早期的市场推广中对此感受颇深，其生猪冻品板块总经理李坤坤对期货日报记者表示，2021 —2022年期间，多数猪企对生猪期货都抱着"不理解、不学习、不参与"的态度，认为养猪靠"勒紧裤腰 带、降低成本"就能扛过去，对期货市场存在本能的质疑和抵触情绪。 不过，生猪期货 "一石激起千层浪"。2021年年初行业大多看好后市猪价，但实际上生猪现货价格却大 幅下跌，部分大型猪企尝试参与期货套保，为业内企业树立了标杆。 观念转变之后，真正的考验在于如何实践。记者在调研中了解到，猪企的套保之路并非一帆风顺，其中 既有精准锁利的成功，也有应对波折的智慧。参与期货市场绝非简单的买卖操作——企业在运用期货过 程中，不仅重塑了经营哲学，也推动了内部治理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent extreme rise in lithium carbonate futures prices has created a dichotomy in the industry, with investors profiting while lithium mining companies face significant losses due to unfavorable market conditions [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures prices have surged over 66% in the past two and a half months, leading to a situation where many lithium mining companies are experiencing "two-sided losses" [3][5]. - The current spot and futures price gap is substantial, with the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price at 94,000 RMB per ton, which is nearly 25,000 RMB per ton lower than the futures contract price [5]. - The price disparity has prompted companies like Tianqi Lithium to adjust their pricing strategies for spot transactions to align more closely with futures prices [5]. Group 2: Industry Response - Major lithium mining companies, including Tianqi Lithium, Salt Lake Shares, and Rongjie Shares, have increasingly engaged in futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [4]. - However, when futures and spot prices diverge, the hedging strategies can lead to significant losses for these companies [5]. - Several downstream lithium carbonate manufacturers have announced production halts in response to rising raw material costs, indicating a struggle to pass on increased costs to consumers [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - To maintain stability in the lithium carbonate futures market and prevent potential risks, the Guangxi Futures Exchange has implemented various measures, including adjustments to trading fees and limits on trading volumes [7].

"开盘做多，先收割一把，"李文近日几乎天天在一个锂业微信群中分享他做多碳酸锂期货的经验。他是 一个期货投资者，随着近期碳酸锂极端上涨行情的出现，他也赚得盆满钵满。 但是这一天，李文发出的"收割"这个词刺痛了群里产业内人士。相关产业人士回应道："收割这个词太 血腥了，产业已经'埋'了。" 近期，碳酸锂期货价格狂飙，2605合约价格在近两个半月时间内上涨超66%。有投资者狂欢的同时，锂 矿公司却高兴不起来。 "不少产业公司面临'两头亏'的情况，"近日，第一财经记者从多个锂矿公司内部人士处获悉，一方面， 当下现货和期货基差（价差）大，锂矿公司期货套保空头头寸出现大额亏损；另一方面，现货价格短期 内快速上升，并没有得到市场的普遍认可，锂矿公司现货难以成交。 受近期碳酸锂期货价格持续上涨的影响，江特电机（002176.SZ）近日发布公告称，经初步测算，公司 商品期货和衍生品交易已确认损益及浮动亏损金额超过1000万元人民币。 为对冲锂产品（如碳酸锂）现货价格大幅波动的风险，头部锂矿公司开展期货套保业务已经较为普遍。 天齐锂业、盐湖股份、融捷股份等都曾发布公告，明确开展碳酸锂期货套保业务。而卖出套保是锂矿公 司最常用的方 ...

碳酸锂期货狂飙66%，锂矿公司为何笑不出来？ 近期，碳酸锂期货价格狂飙，2605合约价格在近两个半月时间内上涨超66%。有投资者狂欢的同时，锂 矿公司却高兴不起来。 "不少产业公司面临'两头亏'的情况，"近日，第一财经记者从多个锂矿公司内部人士处获悉，一方面， 当下现货和期货基差（价差）大，锂矿公司期货套保空头头寸出现大额亏损；另一方面，现货价格短期 内快速上升，并没有得到市场的普遍认可，锂矿公司现货难以成交。 受近期碳酸锂期货价格持续上涨的影响，江特电机（002176.SZ）近日发布公告称，经初步测算，公司 商品期货和衍生品交易已确认损益及浮动亏损金额超过1000万元人民币。 为对冲锂产品（如碳酸锂）现货价格大幅波动的风险，头部锂矿公司开展期货套保业务已经较为普遍。 天齐锂业、盐湖股份、融捷股份等都曾发布公告，明确开展碳酸锂期货套保业务。而卖出套保是锂矿公 司最常用的方式，用于防范产品价格下跌的风险。 但是当期货与现货价格走势背离，锂矿公司就会出现套保效果不理想甚至亏损的情况。根据生意社数 据，12月29日，国产电池级碳酸锂现货报价9.4万元/吨，与碳酸锂2605合约期货当日收盘价的价差近2.5 万元/吨； ...

| 11/11/2 | 软商品日报 | > 國授期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月25日 | 操作评级 | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | 1 【20号胶&天然橡胶&合成橡胶】 (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨，棉花现货主流销售甚差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存同比基本持平，销售进度偏 快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月18号，国内棉花累计加工皮棉648.6万吨，同比增加 82.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加155.2万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-16，沪铜主力合约开于 93500元/吨，收于 91920元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.52%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 92210元/吨，收于91830 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.10%。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 现货成交相对清淡 铜价维持震荡格局 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对次月2601合约报价贴水180至贴水70元/吨，均价为贴水125元/吨，较前一 日下跌185元。现货价格区间为91320-92030元/吨。主力2601合约早间波动于91500-92150元，跨月价差维持在C110 至C70之间。市场卖方出货意愿较强，但买方接货情绪低迷，导致现货升水持续走低，整体成交清淡。早间持货商 对次月报价平水铜贴水140元/吨左右，好铜贴水约70元/吨；午后进一步下滑，平水铜最低贴至180元/吨，好铜报贴 水100元/吨。今日，由于2512合约已完成交割，持货商流转意愿不强，预计现货仍将维持较大幅度贴水。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于 ...

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——下游检修预期增加，盘面估值回落 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油一方面受到供应过剩的压力，另一方面又受到地缘问题扰动，本周整体在基本面压力下震荡走 弱，但整体还在震荡区间内。 2）海外整体偏坚挺，美国需求回升，库存降低；中东发运依然处于偏低位。FEI升贴水37.25美元，CP升贴 水42美元。 3）内盘基本面小幅走弱。供应端到港量本周小幅增加，港口库存积累；化工需求端，PDH本周在巨正源及滨 华复产推动下开工上行，但市场网传了一些检修计划，叠加目前的亏损状态，需求预期走弱。 4）仓单量本周小幅增加，截至目前仓单量5476张，较上周增加865张。 我们认为PG大多时候跟随外盘丙烷及原油波动，但本周外盘相对持稳，原油端偏弱但整体仍在低位的震荡区 间，周尾的下跌更多还是受到内盘自身的影响。一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the far - month contracts of PXTA, suggesting continued optimism [1][2][6][7][27][56][68][85][118][123] Core Viewpoints - The current low valuation of PXTA combined with a production gap period provides an opportunity. The PTA market is in an upward - trending phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the future. The overall situation is expected to improve due to no new production plans for PTA and PX in the future and positive growth in downstream demand. There are long - term opportunities for long positions [5][14] - The market sentiment is currently positive, but there is a lack of substantial favorable news. The improvement in the overall situation is based on long - term optimism. During the off - season, the market is expected to see limited rebound, and it is advisable to focus on long - term long opportunities in far - month contracts [13] Summary by Directory Investment Strategy - **PX1 - 5 Reverse Spread**: The strategy involves the PX601 and PX605 contracts. The cost formula is PX601 - PX605. The target spread is - 200, and the stop - loss spread is 160. It was proposed on August 8, 2025. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunity of PX1 - 5 [8] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions PX - **Refineries (Inventory Management)**: For those with PX inventory worried about price drops, they can sell a certain proportion on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - **Polyester Traders (Procurement Management)**: To build inventory and buy PX at a low price, they can buy short - term call options to prevent price surges. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] - **Polyester Traders (Inventory Management)**: To protect inventory from price drops, they can sell on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - **Polyester Factories (Procurement Management)**: When in need of PX and worried about price increases, they can buy call options according to the production plan to prevent price surges. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] - **Polyester Factories (Inventory Management)**: To protect inventory from price drops, they can sell on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - **Textile Enterprises (Procurement Management)**: To prevent PX price increases, they can buy call options. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] PTA - **Polyester Traders (Inventory Management - Worried about Price Drops)**: They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - **Polyester Traders (Inventory Management - Seeking High - Price Sales)**: They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - **Polyester Traders (Procurement Management)**: They can buy futures or options on the market according to the proportion to prevent sudden price increases. The options are TA601C4800 and TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and entry prices of 30 and 35 respectively [4] - **Polyester Factories (Inventory Management - Worried about Price Drops)**: They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - **Polyester Factories (Procurement Management - Worried about Price Increases)**: They can buy futures or options on the market according to the proportion to prevent sudden price increases. The options are TA601C4800 and TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and entry prices of 30 and 35 respectively [4] - **Textile Enterprises (Procurement Management - Worried about Price Increases)**: They can buy options to prevent sudden price increases. The option is TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 35 [4] Fundamental Analysis and Strategies Supply - For PTA, with the planned maintenance of Yisheng and Honggang Petrochemical, the PTA load has recently decreased. The restart and maintenance are proceeding as planned. There is no significant unexpected situation on the supply side, but the subsequent supply pressure remains high due to the new 300 - million - ton Xin凤鸣 plant. For PX, the Zhonghua Quanzhou plant has reduced its load due to a fault, and the Shanghai Petrochemical plant has restarted, with fewer clear maintenance plans in the future [13] Demand - This week, the polyester operating rate has remained at around 90%. The overall terminal data is average. The profits of various polyester products have been compressed to different extents, and the inventory level is generally neutral. Due to previous export - rushing phenomena, the off - season expectations are average. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester inventory and load during the off - season [13] Spot - Recently, due to the high supply pressure in the far - month, the spot performance has been weak. The basis has not rebounded as much as the single - sided price, and the spot is still at a discount of around 60 to the 01 contract [13] Valuation - Currently, PXN is around 288 US dollars per ton, and the 1.9 - cargo processing fee is around 150 yuan per ton. Overall, the PTA valuation is still low, and it has slightly recovered recently with the improvement in sentiment. The recent valuation repair is more reflected in PX [13] Unilateral Strategy - The current market sentiment is positive, but there is no actual favorable news. The improvement in the overall situation is based on long - term optimism about the future production gap of PTA and PX. During the off - season, the valuation is repaired in advance, and there is no substantial improvement in the overall supply - demand pattern from the basis. On the unilateral side, the expected rebound during the off - season is limited, and attention should be paid to long - term long opportunities in far - month contracts [13] PX Analysis PX Load - The Zhonghua Quanzhou 800,000 - ton plant stopped for maintenance on November 25, with an expected two - month maintenance period. A 100,000 - ton PX plant of Fujia Liuhe has been shut down since late March. There were no plant changes this week. The weekly PX output was 748,200 tons, a 0.58% decrease from last week. The domestic bi - weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a 0.53% decrease from last week. The Asian weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.12%, a 0.29% decrease [19] PX Profit - The current PXN is around 288 US dollars per ton. After rebounding from the bottom, the valuation is still at a relatively high level and is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the strong gasoline crack spread, which is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There are also reports of the reconstruction of the aromatics logistics from South Korea to the United States, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent gasoline blending will drive up PXN [29] PX Regional Spread - When the US - Asia spread is too large, there will be exports from Asia to the United States, affecting the Asian supply - demand pattern. Currently, the US - Asia spread has stabilized. After the export of aromatics dropped to zero last October, there was some flow in November and December. The volume of aromatics logistics increased in the first quarter of this year but dropped to zero after April. There has been little logistics in recent months, but there has been some logistics for other aromatics such as pure benzene. Attention should be paid to the subsequent export situation [37] PTA Analysis TA Operating Rate - The current effective operating rate is 75%. There were no changes in domestic PTA plants this week, but the supply increased due to the restart of Honggang Petrochemical last week. The domestic overall output has slightly increased this period. The PTA near - month still faces significant supply - demand pressure, but the situation has started to improve. If the downstream polyester can maintain a high load, the short - term supply - demand is acceptable [48] TA Profit - The current spot processing fee is around 150 yuan per ton. With the commissioning of new plants, the supply pressure is high, and the PTA processing fee has been continuously low. The improvement in supply - demand is more reflected in the valuation repair of PX. As the most over - supplied part of the industrial chain, it is difficult for PTA to repair its valuation, especially with the new Xin凤鸣 plant just commissioned [52] Polyester Analysis Polyester Operating Rate - The current polyester operating rate is 91.8%. The decline in the off - season is not significant, and the polyester factory load has stabilized at around 90%. Currently, the profits of polyester products are stable, and the inventory level is not too high. Overall, the performance during the peak season this year was average. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand is expected to be weak [62] Polyester Profit - Since last year, the profits of polyester bottle chips have been at the lowest level in the same period of history, leading to a continuous slump in the bottle - chip operating rate and a possible delay in the commissioning of new plants, as most planned new plants are for bottle chips. Currently, due to the continuous decline in raw material prices, the profits of downstream products have increased passively [67] Polyester Inventory - Polyester factories have maintained a load of around 90% recently. The inventory of some products is high, but with good sales, the inventory of products has remained at a neutral level. The performance of polyester on the demand side during the peak season this year was average. Due to the previous export - rushing, there was some order pre - empting. With the arrival of the off - season, the situation may not be optimistic [82] Terminal Weaving Analysis Weaving Operating Rate - The current weaving operating rate is 70% [87] Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling - Since the beginning of the month, the overall orders in the weaving market have been characterized by "scarce large orders and scattered small orders." The current clothing consumption demand has contracted, and the home - textile market is divided. The sales of functional fabrics have remained stable, while the conventional medium - and low - count fabrics face significant inventory pressure. Although there are occasional urgent foreign orders, the overall inventory - reduction progress is slow. Some small factories have cut production or shut down, while large - scale enterprises are still operating stably. Looking ahead, the price - negotiation atmosphere for spring orders is gradually heating up, and the market is waiting for further guidance. It is expected that the sales of home - textile products such as fleece will experience a phased recovery driven by promotional events such as "Double 12" [87] Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis reflects the strength of the spot relative to the futures. A negative basis indicates a weak spot market, and vice versa. The monthly spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks. Attention should be paid to the PX01 contract basis, PX1 - 5 spread, TA01 contract basis, TA09 contract basis, and TA futures 5 - 9 spread [96][99] Position and Trading Volume Analysis - The position volume of the main contract can reflect the virtual - to - real ratio and sometimes affect delivery. The trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and position volume of the PX_01 contract and the PTA_01 contract [113][114][119] Capacity and Cost Summary PX - **Supply - side Production Rhythm**: There has been no new production this year. As of now, the annual commissioned capacity is 0 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 0%. Yulongdao plans to commission 3 million tons at the end of the year. - **Demand - side Production Rhythm**: As of November 2025, the annual commissioned capacity is 11.7 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. There is no planned new production. - **Cost Curve**: PX is produced by pure oil - based methods, and the production processes are similar. The market generally believes that for PX, PXN around 200 - 300 US dollars per ton is near the cost, and currently, PXN is around 250 US dollars per ton [122] PTA - **Supply - side Production Rhythm**: As of November 2025, the annual commissioned capacity is 11.7 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. There is no planned new production. - **Demand - side Production Rhythm**: As of November 2025, the downstream polyester demand side has commissioned a total of 2.85 million tons, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle chips. The annual commissioned capacity is 2.85 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 3%. There are still about 1.5 million tons of polyester capacity to be commissioned this year, and the expected annual commissioning growth rate is around 5%. - **Cost Curve**: PTA is all oil - based production, and the processes are similar. For most plants, the processing cost is in the range of 200 - 300 yuan per ton, and the current PTA spot processing fee is around 250 yuan per ton [125]

11月下旬，笔者到"电线电缆之乡"河北邢台市宁晋县进行了实地调研。 宁晋县地处河北省中南部，历史悠久，文脉绵长。凭借深厚的工业积淀和产业集群优势，宁晋县已成为全国知名的"电线电缆之乡"，拥有电线电 缆相关企业上千家，其中规模以上企业超100家，形成了从原材料加工到成品制造、检测认证、物流配送的完整产业链。 近年来，宁晋电线电缆产业年总产值已突破200亿元，占全县GDP的比重超过50%，直接就业人数超5万人，是名副其实的支柱型产业。当地龙头 企业如明达电缆、亚星电缆、童泰电缆等长期参与国家电网、地铁工程等重大项目招投标。 目前，当地产业发展面临多重挑战，比如国家电网招标门槛提高，中小型企业被排除在外，整体订单缩量；企业电线电缆订单账期由3个月延长至 6—8个月，企业现金流承压；铜价中枢上移，原材料成本攀升；多数民营企业缺乏专业风控团队，人才流失严重，转型升级动力不足等。 由于电线电缆企业以销定产，国家电网客户拥有绝对定价权，且招投标往往在年底、年初，采取月度均价或一口价方式，电线电缆企业的销售报 价难以跟随铜价波动调整，企业利润空间被挤压。2020—2025年，全球铜价波动加大，不少经营管理经验不足、不善于应用 ...