关税风云下的铜铝 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 证券研究报告|行业跟踪 2025/08/21 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 分析师：于柏寒 登记编码：S0950523120002 邮箱：yubaihan@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 Contents 目录 01 铜铝价格走势复盘 03 供应端偏紧的铝市场 04 铜铝价格展望总结 02 关税风云下"割裂"的铜市 场 今年铜铝在交易什么？ 复盘：关税预期扰动今年铜价 图表1：2025年初至今的铜价走势复盘：关税、冶炼厂减产成为主线 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2025-01-08 2025-01-10 2025-01-12 2025-01-14 2025-01-16 2025-01-18 2025-01-20 2025-01-22 2025- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to continue the pattern of being stronger in the domestic market and weaker in the international market, as well as being weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term. Currently, the macro - environment is favorable for copper prices, while the industrial side shows a neutral - to - bearish trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 30, the US President announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. The New York copper price dropped by over 18% on the same day, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper quickly narrowed to the pre - tariff - expectation level. Copper ores and cathode copper were exempted from the tariff, which is beyond market expectations. This exemption is bullish for copper prices from a global supply - demand perspective. After the spread convergence, US copper imports may decline in the second half of the year, increasing non - US copper supply and being bearish for LME and SHFE copper [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The current high global market risk appetite and the good performance of domestic and foreign equity markets are bullish for copper prices. The unexpectedly weak US non - farm data and lower - than - expected non - manufacturing PMI at the beginning of the month increased the expectation of a US economic slowdown and Fed rate - cut expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points [2]. - There is a risk of a macro - environment shift. If the US economy continues to weaken, copper prices will be under pressure; if the US economy stabilizes and the Fed cuts rates, it will be bullish for copper prices [3]. Domestic Market Conditions - In July, the domestic macro - environment was positive. With the "anti - involution" policy, domestic - priced commodities generally rose. The strong trend continued in late July but cooled down at the end of the month, and commodities entered an adjustment phase. The current spot industry is in the off - season, with limited impact on copper prices. Supported by the macro - environment, far - month copper contracts are stronger than near - month contracts. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory de - stocking has slowed down, while overseas copper inventory has been accumulating at a high level, resulting in the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international copper prices. Domestic upstream smelters maintain high production, and refined copper imports are expected to increase, putting pressure on the domestic industry [3]. Trade Agreement and Its Impact - In August, the new US tariff policy was implemented, and the US reached new trade agreements with major global economies, possibly extending the current tariff policy for 90 days. This reduces global economic uncertainty and is expected to keep the market risk - appetite high, which is bullish for copper prices [3]. - The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, involving a 90 - day tariff extension and non - tariff measure adjustment, indicates an improvement in Sino - US trade relations and is also bullish for copper prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, citing national security concerns, which has caused significant volatility in the global copper market [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Market - The announcement of the tariff led to a 20% drop in copper futures prices on July 30, following a period of rising prices due to market speculation about the tariffs [2][3]. - Prior to the tariff announcement, copper futures had reached a record high of $5.8955 per pound, driven by expectations of the tariffs [2]. - The tariff policy has disrupted the previous premium for U.S. copper over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, which had reached a 28% premium [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surged to 232,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21,900 tons, indicating a significant buildup of stock [3]. - The U.S. imported 864,000 tons of copper in the first half of the year, up 514,000 tons from the previous year, reflecting increased demand amid tariff speculation [3]. - The potential for excess inventory in the U.S. market may suppress COMEX copper prices, with concerns about inventory outflows impacting LME prices and domestic prices in China [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on copper prices, long-term demand for copper is expected to rise due to trends in electric vehicles, data centers, and grid modernization, which may support higher copper prices [3][5]. - The U.S. is the second-largest consumer of copper globally, with projected consumption of approximately 1.6 million tons in 2024, while domestic production remains limited [5]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for refined copper, with 46% of its refined copper needs met through imports, highlighting a critical gap in its supply chain [5]. Group 4: Future Policy Considerations - The U.S. government is considering further tariffs on refined copper, with potential rates of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% in subsequent years, which could impact domestic production and investment [6]. - The proposed export licensing for high-quality copper scrap aims to ensure a stable supply of raw materials while promoting domestic refining capacity [6]. - The effectiveness of the tariff policy in fostering domestic copper industry growth remains uncertain, as significant capital investment and time are required to develop new refining capabilities [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective August 1, which has led to significant market reactions, particularly a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][3]. Market Reaction - COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the decline continuing, while LME copper showed minimal reaction, resulting in a significant narrowing of the price spread between COMEX and LME copper [1][4]. - The collapse of the abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper means that traders will lack incentives to transport copper from other regions to the U.S., leading to concerns about limited copper inflow into the U.S. market [4]. Implications for Supply and Demand - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, the inflow of copper from other regions may be restricted, potentially leading to a re-export scenario [4]. - LME copper inventories have accumulated nearly 50,000 tons since early July, with expectations of further increases in inventory levels due to the reduced impact of tariffs on refined copper [4]. Future Considerations - President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with potential phased tariffs starting in 2027 [5]. - The U.S. administration's directive includes measures to support the domestic copper industry, such as requiring that 25% of high-quality scrap copper produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [5].

Core Points - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, effective August 1 [2] - The tariffs are part of Trump's ongoing trade policy, which has previously targeted various goods including steel [2][4] - Mexico, as the third-largest exporter of copper products to the U.S., is expected to face significant economic impacts from these tariffs [5][7] Impact on Mexico - The tariffs are projected to result in approximately $1 billion in losses for Mexico annually, as it exported $976 million worth of copper products to the U.S. in 2024 [7] - In the first five months of 2025, Mexico's copper product exports to the U.S. increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, generating $419 million in revenue [8] - The tariffs may also lead to increased competition among domestic U.S. traders, affecting the overall market dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced significant trade policy adjustments, including high tariffs on key raw materials like copper, indicating a comprehensive escalation of protectionist policies [1][2][4] - A trade agreement with South Korea includes a 15% tariff on imports, while South Korea commits to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects and purchase $100 billion in LNG [2] - Tariffs on Brazilian products have been raised to 50%, with certain products like wood pulp and oil exempted from the increase [2] Group 2 - A 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives will take effect on August 1, leading to a significant drop in international copper prices, with a historic single-day decline of 17.7% [3][4] - The U.S. will suspend the tax exemption for low-value goods, meaning imports valued at or below $800 will be subject to all applicable tariffs, aimed at tightening trade policies [4] - The measures are justified under the guise of "national security" according to the U.S. Trade Expansion Act of 1962, raising concerns about potential retaliatory actions from trade partners and impacts on global supply chains [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on certain imported copper products, effective August 1, which includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [1][2] - Following the announcement, the Comex copper futures price dropped over 18%, closing at $4.630 per pound, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1][2] - The initial market expectation was for a broader tariff covering the entire copper supply chain, but the announcement limited the tariffs to specific products, excluding key raw materials like copper ore and cathodes [1][2] Group 2 - The copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, and scrap are not subject to the tariffs under the Section 232 provisions [2] - The announcement negatively impacted U.S. copper producers, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. shares falling approximately 10% and Southern Copper shares declining over 6% [2] - Prior to the announcement, U.S. copper prices were about 28% higher than the benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective from August 1 [1][2] - The tariff applies to semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while certain copper input materials and scrap are exempt [1] - The announcement was made under the authority of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing national security concerns [1] Group 2 - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York fell by over 18% [2] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers, potentially impacting the manufacturing sector adversely [2]