10月整体成交总量规模或将延续低位波动，绝对量与9月持平或小幅微降 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，国庆中秋假日8天，全国国内出游8.88亿人次，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加 1.23亿人次；国内出游总花费8090.06亿元，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1081.89亿元。相较而言，楼市表现 则略显平淡，22个重点城市认购面积同环比下降超3成，热点二线城市成都、杭州等短期内市场热度延续， 广州、武汉、郑州等维持弱修复行情。 标杆房企同比也大幅下滑，部分企业腰斩。 当前热销项目仍集中在 核心区改善盘和大折扣力度刚需盘，二手房同比"腰斩"跌幅大于新房，预期10月整体成交延续低位徘徊，同 比跌幅仍有进一步扩大的可能。 新房认购：22城同环比降超3成 京沪深新政提振效果递减 01 考量到备案数据或将延迟，我们同时结合了克而瑞城市机构调研数据，可以看到，十一中秋双节假期（2025 年10月1日-10月8日，下同）认购表现较为平淡，22个重点城市十一假期认购面积仅为160.9万平方米，环比 下降38%，同比下降33%，回暖动力略显不足。 | 城市 | 2025年十 中秋双节假期认购面积 | 环比(20 ...

2025年三季度，整体楼市重回年内低位，新房供求同环比齐降：一方面房企推盘积极性一般，三季度供应量下降约二成，累计同比降幅达18%，一二线高 位回落；另一方面新房成交稳中有降，年中冲刺季之后需求进入疲软期，京沪深8月以来相继出台利好政策助力市场维稳，不过9月新房成交环比增幅仍不 及供应，金九成色一般。二手房增长动能明显放缓，延续震荡走势，一方面挂牌量增价跌，市场信心暂未恢复；另一方面，优质新盘入市也客观上分流了 部分改善客群。 预判四季度，我们认为，政策利好加持+房企推盘频次和营销力度加大，新房成交环比三季度有望稳中有增，维持弱复苏，全年成交降幅有望持稳10%左 右。城市间、项目间分化还将持续加剧。 新增供应同环比降幅约15% 深昆长等一二线逆势增长 2025年三季度供应季节性回落，同环比齐跌，前三季度全国商品住宅供应约束依旧显著：据CRIC监测，7-8月全国110个重点城市新增供应2180万平方 米，同比下降21%，较2025年二季度月均下降26%。 根据30城环比增长55%预估百城数据，9月供应预期达到1599万平方米，三季度环比下降15%，同比下降22%，前三季度累计同比下降约二成。 分能级来看，一二线 ...

金九银十，各地迎来楼市的"黄金期"。2025年国庆中秋长假期间，全国多地楼市迎来促销高峰，房企大力促销加速去化，核心城市新房供应量显著增加， 政策利好叠加传统销售旺季，推动市场活跃度回升。 就在9月初，深圳推出新一轮楼市提振措施，在政策助力之下，国庆中秋长假期间的深圳楼市表现如何？对此，证券时报记者进行实探。 记者采访发现，"5字头总价买南山3房""龙华价买南山"等促销信息比比皆是，一些新房的折扣甚至低于备案价的八五折。面对今年仅剩最后一个季度的冲 刺时间，打折降价、让利换量已成为不少房企最直接的回流资金方式。与此同时，深圳启动多场高品质房产专场活动，覆盖福田、罗湖、南山等核心区 域，通过线上线下联动模式刺激销售。 深圳贝壳研究院院长肖小平分析指出，楼市新政出台恰逢9月新盘集中入市期，不少项目赶在政策窗口期加推，政策红利加上优质房源的双重吸引，进一 步放大了成交量的增长效应。调查显示，实用率较高的新规楼盘、可快速入住的现房楼盘成为置业者关注的焦点；与此同时，核心区租售比高的商办和公 寓楼盘，也保持着较高的成交热度。 面对新房的"折扣大战"，现场不少购房者表示，楼市新政的确刺激了自己入市的想法，但还是会"货比三 ...

金九银十，各地迎来楼市的"黄金期"。2025年国庆中秋长假期间，全国多地楼市迎来促销高峰，房企大力促销加速去化，核心城市新房供应量显著增加， 政策利好叠加传统销售旺季，推动市场活跃度回升。 就在9月初，深圳推出新一轮楼市提振措施，在政策助力之下，国庆中秋长假期间的深圳楼市表现如何？对此，证券时报记者进行实探。 新房市场很"卷" "政策带来的即时效果还是很明显的，新政推出后半个月我们项目就卖了近20套房，几乎是整个8月的3倍。"在深圳罗湖区一处新房项目，营销经理正在群 发销售喜报，希望国庆中秋长假能再创佳绩。 深圳楼市新政推出后，放松限购的罗湖区效果最为明显。在罗湖莲塘片区一处刚刚开盘的新房项目，记者看到不少趁着假期前来看房的购房者。现场销售 经理表示，项目直接打出最低折扣，国庆中秋长假期间成交还有额外"大礼包"，包括家电、物业管理费等。"没办法，现在新房市场太'卷'了，各个区的新 房几乎都在打折。" 面对新房的"折扣大战"，现场不少购房者表示，楼市新政的确刺激了自己入市的想法，但还是会"货比三家"，"折扣大战"会让自己把更多目光投向新房市 场。广东省城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，降价促销是目 ...

对于二手房市场，记者在福田、罗湖和盐田区的多家二手房中介门店进行采访，多位房产中介经理对记 者表示，对于需求相对明确的客户，决策速度和信心都有明显提升，与此同时，目前深圳二手房市场还 是"以价换量"，价格变化不大。此外，受访的房产中介经理表示假期会放弃休假，希望楼市新政的刺激 作用能够提亮今年长假的楼市"成色"，更希望节后会有更多新政刺激市场人气。 金九银十，各地迎来楼市的"黄金期"。2025年国庆中秋长假期间，全国多地楼市迎来促销高峰，房企大 力促销加速去化，核心城市新房供应量显著增加，政策利好叠加传统销售旺季，推动市场活跃度回升。 就在9月初，深圳推出新一轮楼市提振措施，在政策助力之下，国庆中秋长假期间的深圳楼市表现如 何？对此，证券时报记者进行实探。 新房市场很"卷" "政策带来的即时效果还是很明显的，新政推出后半个月我们项目就卖了近20套房，几乎是整个8月的3 倍。"在深圳罗湖区一处新房项目，营销经理正在群发销售喜报，希望国庆中秋长假能再创佳绩。 深圳楼市新政推出后，放松限购的罗湖区效果最为明显。在罗湖莲塘片区一处刚刚开盘的新房项目，记 者看到不少趁着假期前来看房的购房者。现场销售经理表示，项目直接打 ...

金九银十，各地迎来楼市的"黄金期"。2025年国庆中秋长假期间，全国多地楼市迎来促销高峰，房企大力促销加速去化，核心城市新房供应量显 著增加，政策利好叠加传统销售旺季，推动市场活跃度回升。 就在9月初，深圳推出新一轮楼市提振措施，在政策助力之下，国庆中秋长假期间的深圳楼市表现如何？对此，证券时报记者进行实探。 新房市场很"卷" "政策带来的即时效果还是很明显的，新政推出后半个月我们项目就卖了近20套房，几乎是整个8月的3倍。"在深圳罗湖区一处新房项目，营销经理正在群发销售喜 报，希望国庆中秋长假能再创佳绩。 （国庆中秋长假开盘的新房项目 吴家明/摄） 面对新房的"折扣大战"，现场不少购房者表示，楼市新政的确刺激了自己入市的想法，但还是会"货比三家"，"折扣大战"会让自己把更多目光投向新房市场。广东 省城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，降价促销是目前市场获客的关键，不仅是深圳，各地楼市都有类似情况，主要原因是楼市进入存量时代， 新房销售竞争激烈。"降价楼盘往往也能'降'出一波销售高潮，但目前市场需求有限，如果下一步没有更大幅度的降价，那么市场又会重新回到疲软状态。" 对于二手房市场，记者在福田、罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transactions expected to rebound slightly in September due to increased supply and discounts, but overall growth remains limited due to weak consumer confidence and spending [1][22]. Market Performance - In August, the average opening sales rate in 30 key cities reached 42%, an increase of 12 percentage points month-on-month and 16 percentage points year-on-year, marking a return to the year's high [2][21]. - Cities like Chongqing, Changsha, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of popular new projects [4][21]. City-Specific Trends - Major cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen showed stable increases in sales rates, while second-tier cities like Wuhan and Nanjing continued their weak recovery [4][21]. - In contrast, weaker second and third-tier cities like Qingdao and Foshan experienced sales rates below 20%, indicating ongoing market sluggishness [4][21]. High-Quality Projects - New regulations and high-quality projects have positively impacted short-term market heat, with premium properties outperforming traditional projects in sales rates [9][21]. - Notable high-performing projects in August included those in Chengdu, Chongqing, and Nanjing, which achieved high sales rates due to their strong product offerings [10][11]. Luxury Market Dynamics - The luxury market in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo has seen increased activity, with flagship projects experiencing strong demand and high sales rates [13][21]. - For instance, the Shanghai One project achieved a remarkable sales performance, with multiple rounds of sales quickly selling out [14][21]. Discount Strategies in Weak Markets - In weaker markets, such as Xi'an and Wuhan, developers have resorted to discount strategies to boost sales, with significant price reductions leading to improved sales figures [18][21]. - Projects in these cities have implemented various promotional strategies, including special pricing and increased commission for sales channels, to enhance market performance [19][21]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery in September, with traditional marketing peaks and increased supply potentially aiding new home sales, although overall growth is anticipated to remain limited [22]. - The differentiation between cities and projects will persist, with core cities likely to maintain high market activity while weaker cities may struggle unless they offer compelling value propositions [22].

Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization since 2025, with a weak recovery trend as the year progresses [1][20] - There are significant differences in recovery rates among cities, with cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan experiencing improved project sales, while cities like Guangzhou and Xi'an face declining customer conversion rates [1][20] Market Performance - The average project sales rate in key cities increased to 37% in early August 2025, marking a 7 percentage point increase from July and a 16 percentage point increase from August 2024 [2] - The total transaction area in key cities for the first ten days of August was 203.2 million square meters, a 16% decrease compared to the same period last year [2] City-Specific Trends - Core cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu have shown varying degrees of market heat, with Chengdu achieving a 100% sales rate for a new project, while Beijing's sales rate dropped to 5% [6][7] - Wuhan has seen a significant increase in customer conversion rates, with average visits per project rising by 9.5% and average sales increasing by 67% in early August [9] - In contrast, cities like Guangzhou and Xi'an are experiencing a decline in customer conversion rates, with Guangzhou's conversion rate dropping from 3.92% to 3.63% in early August [15][17] Overall Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend, with new home sales likely to remain at low levels, although the year-on-year decline may narrow [20] - The differentiation in market performance among cities is expected to persist, with high-quality projects in core areas likely to maintain strong sales [20]

Group 1 - The real estate market in the first seven months of the year shows mixed signals, with new home transactions experiencing a seasonal decline, reaching a low point for the year and turning negative year-on-year [1][3] - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Nanjing are seeing strong sales in high-end improvement projects, which positively contribute to market stabilization [2][7] - The average sales rate in 30 monitored cities dropped to 30% in July, a decrease of 11 percentage points month-on-month, while the total transaction volume for the first seven months slightly decreased by 1% compared to the previous year [3][4] Group 2 - In July, the transaction volume in 30 key cities was 823 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 20% [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Nanning, and Tianjin had sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of popular projects [4][5] - The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations in August, with a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [2][3] Group 3 - High-end improvement projects in core urban areas are performing well, with notable sales in Shanghai and Chengdu, where projects like Yanshi in Shanghai achieved a sales rate of 86% and 100% in July [7][8] - Educational properties are also driving demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, with projects benefiting from school district advantages seeing higher sales [9][10] - The overall market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, with significant differentiation between cities and projects, particularly in core areas with strong amenities and product quality [14]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with July witnessing a seasonal decline in market activity, although still outperforming the same period last year [1][19]. Market Performance - In July, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities dropped to 30%, marking a year-to-date low, with a month-on-month decrease of 11 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points [4][19]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experienced significant declines in sales rates, with Shenzhen hitting a record low of 4% [7][19]. - Cities such as Tianjin and Suzhou saw increases in sales rates, indicating a continuation of weak recovery trends [7]. Hot Selling Projects - Core area high-end projects in cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou remain the main drivers of sales, with notable examples achieving high sales rates [9][10]. - In Chengdu, top-selling projects were all located in core areas, benefiting from strong product appeal and increased sales efforts from developers [9]. - Educational resources continue to drive demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, where school district properties are among the top sellers [11][12]. Product Trends - The introduction of high-efficiency "fourth-generation" residential projects and new regulations has positively impacted short-term market activity, with these projects often outperforming traditional offerings [13][19]. - However, there is a noticeable divergence in sales performance among new projects, with some failing to attract buyers despite product advantages due to inadequate supporting infrastructure [14][19]. Pricing Strategies - In weaker second-tier cities, developers are increasingly resorting to discounting and enhanced commission structures to boost sales, with notable success in cities like Xi'an and Suzhou [16][19]. - Projects in these cities have seen significant sales through aggressive pricing strategies, with many offering discounts of up to 20% [17][19]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a low transaction volume phase in August, with developers' enthusiasm for launching new projects likely to remain subdued [19]. - However, due to last year's low base, the year-on-year decline in sales may narrow to within 5%, continuing the weak recovery trend [19].