近日，在2025年彭博创新经济论坛期间，彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）远程接受21世纪 经济报道专访时指出，美国关税政策的升级正在深刻改变全球贸易结构与经济增长路径。据其分析，特 朗普政府已将美国平均关税从约2%大幅提高至约15%，这一政策变动导致"美国在全球贸易体系中的角 色正在缩水"。 欧乐鹰表示，根据可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）测算，平均15%的关税水平预计将使未来几年对美出口 规模较无关税情形下降约20%。随着对美国出口壁垒上升，各国正积极寻求替代市场，全球贸易中"绕 过美国"的部分将逐步增长，而与美相关的贸易流则趋于收缩。 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 自美国总统特朗普今年1月入主白宫以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴频频挥舞关税"大棒"，给全球贸易格局 带来了巨大干扰。世界贸易组织（WTO）警告称，特朗普关税正在对国际贸易体系造成80年来"前所未 见"的破坏，预计2026年全球货物贸易增长仅为0.5%。 彭博经济研究预测，2026年全球经济增长率可能进一步放缓至2.9%，低于2025年的3.2%。欧乐鹰指 出，企业为规避关税而进行的超前进口行为已进入库存消化阶段，其滞后影响 ...

Core Points - The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) opened in Belem, Brazil, focusing on multilateralism to address the climate crisis [1][2] - The conference aims to accelerate emission reductions, enhance climate resilience, and promote an inclusive and just transition [1] - A key agenda item is the new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that countries are required to submit this year under the Paris Agreement [1] Group 1 - The COP30 president, Andre Correa Dourado, emphasized that multilateralism is the correct path to tackle climate change and aims to integrate climate action into economic activities and job creation [1][2] - The conference will focus on three priority areas: strengthening multilateralism and climate mechanisms under the Convention, linking climate mechanisms to people's lives and the real economy, and accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement [2] - The conference will last until November 21 and includes representatives from over 190 countries and regions, including government officials, international organizations, scientists, entrepreneurs, NGOs, and civil society [2]

Core Points - The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change opened in Belem, Brazil, on November 10 [1] - The conference focuses on several important climate issues, calling for global cooperation to find common solutions to the climate crisis [1] - Key objectives include accelerating emission reductions, enhancing climate resilience, and promoting an inclusive and just transition [1]

Core Points - The UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the urgent need for global action to combat climate change, warning that the world has failed to keep temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius [1][2] - Guterres called for significant emission reductions, accelerated fossil fuel phase-out, and increased investments in adaptation and resilience over the next decade [1][2] - A clear and credible path for climate financing, particularly for developing countries, is essential, with a target of providing $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 [2][3] Group 1 - Guterres highlighted the severe socio-economic consequences of rising global temperatures and the potential for catastrophic impacts on ecosystems and human habitation [1] - Immediate large-scale actions are necessary to minimize temperature rise and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, transitioning to net-negative emissions thereafter [1] - The importance of international collaboration and a bold, credible response plan was stressed, including the development of renewable energy and modern energy infrastructure [2] Group 2 - Developing countries require a fair and just climate justice framework post-COP30 to ensure dignity and opportunities [3] - Guterres urged that the upcoming COP30 should be a turning point in the global response to the climate crisis, advocating for alignment with scientific recommendations and justice for future generations [3]

Core Points - The Belem Climate Summit, hosted by Brazil, aims to unite countries and international organizations to accelerate actions against the climate crisis [1][2] - Key topics include climate and nature, energy transition, assessment of the Paris Agreement's tenth anniversary, national contributions, and climate financing [1] - UN Secretary-General Guterres emphasizes the need for faster and more effective actions, particularly from wealthier nations, to reverse the current climate situation [1] - Brazilian President Lula highlights energy transition and nature protection as the most effective ways to combat global warming, advocating for science to guide decision-making [1] - French President Macron stresses the importance of respecting scientific evidence in climate issues and calls for increased clean energy investment and financing mechanisms for developing countries [1] Group 1 - The Belem Climate Summit serves as a political direction for the upcoming COP30 negotiations [1] - The summit's discussions are centered around the urgency of climate action and the need for international cooperation [1][2] - Leaders are calling for a unified approach to fulfill existing climate goals and find equitable solutions to the climate crisis [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Belem Climate Summit emphasizes the urgent need for global unity and accelerated action to address the climate crisis, setting the stage for the upcoming COP30 negotiations [1][2]. Group 1: Summit Objectives and Themes - The Belem Climate Summit, hosted by Brazil, aims to provide political direction for the upcoming COP30 negotiations, focusing on key topics such as climate and nature, energy transition, the assessment of the Paris Agreement's ten-year progress, national contributions, and climate financing [1]. - UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed the hope that COP30 will mark a turning point in the fight against the climate crisis, stressing the necessity for faster and more effective actions, particularly from wealthier nations [1]. Group 2: Statements from Leaders - Brazilian President Lula highlighted that accelerating energy transition and protecting nature are the two most effective ways to combat global warming, advocating for science to guide decision-making [1]. - French President Macron emphasized the importance of respecting scientific evidence in addressing climate issues and called for continued cooperation to fulfill international commitments under the Paris Agreement, while also stressing the need for increased clean energy investment and financing mechanisms for developing countries [1]. - Chilean President Boric urged countries to clarify how to meet established climate goals and to find a swift and equitable solution to the climate crisis, calling for international leadership based on science and facts [2].

Core Points - A tragic avalanche occurred at the base camp of Mount Aylonri in eastern Nepal, resulting in the deaths of 5 foreign climbers and 2 local guides, with 4 others missing and 4 injured [1][2] - The incident highlights the risks associated with mountain tourism in Nepal, particularly during the autumn season when weather conditions can be unpredictable [2] Group 1: Incident Details - The avalanche struck on November 3, affecting a climbing team of 5 foreign climbers and 10 Nepali guides [1] - Rescue efforts have been hampered by severe weather conditions, with reports indicating that communication issues in remote areas further complicate the situation [1][2] - As of now, 7 bodies have been recovered, including 3 French nationals, 1 Canadian, and 1 Italian, along with 2 Nepali guides [1] Group 2: Impact on Tourism - Nepal is known for its rich mountain tourism resources, hosting 8 of the world's 10 highest peaks, making it a popular destination for climbers and trekkers [2] - In October, the number of foreign tourists visiting Nepal reached 128,443, marking a 3.3% increase year-on-year [2] - Recent adverse weather, including heavy snowfall and rain caused by Tropical Cyclone "Monsa," has raised concerns about the safety of outdoor activities such as trekking and climbing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a "polycrisis" era, highlighting the interconnectedness of economic inequality, political instability, ecological imbalance, and technological risks, which are increasingly shaping consumer behavior and market trends in 2025 [7][8]. Group 1: Global Uncertainty and Economic Impact - The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) indicates that global uncertainty in the first half of 2025 has surged over five times compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting a significant decline in market confidence [10]. - Major factors driving this increase in uncertainty include policy unpredictability and geopolitical tensions [11]. Group 2: Climate Crisis and Consumer Behavior - By 2050, it is predicted that there will be 1.2 billion climate refugees, with Asia experiencing climate impacts at twice the global average rate [14]. - The climate crisis is influencing consumer trends, merging survivalist demands with a desire for security, which is becoming a key driver of consumption in 2025 [17]. Group 3: Rise of Survivalist Consumption - The concept of "doomsday consumption" is gaining traction, with products like the Toyota Tacoma being favored for their reliability and perceived safety, showing a 188% increase in Q1 2025 sales compared to Q1 2024 [22]. - Affordable survival shelters are emerging as a new trend, with membership-based services like Fortitude Ranch gaining popularity among middle-class consumers concerned about societal instability [24][26]. Group 4: Cultural Reflections of Doomsday Sentiment - The cultural landscape is reflecting doomsday sentiments, with popular media and entertainment focusing on survival themes, indicating a growing consumer interest in products that evoke a sense of security and survival [29]. Group 5: Innovations in Climate-Responsive Products - There is a rising demand for cooling apparel, with a 16% increase in searches for cooling fabrics in 2025, highlighting the importance of personal climate regulation [42]. - Innovative products like wearable solar-powered vests are being developed to help individuals cope with extreme heat, showcasing the retail industry's adaptation to climate challenges [40]. Group 6: Security and Personal Safety Consumption - In the UK, sales of stab-proof clothing have surged due to rising concerns over personal safety, with projections indicating a global market growth to $2.3 billion by 2032 [49]. - In the U.S., there is a notable increase in home security investments, with middle-class consumers increasingly interested in creating safe spaces within their homes [52][53]. Group 7: Digital Security and Asset Protection - The demand for encrypted USB drives is rising, reflecting a growing concern for personal information security, with a steady market growth rate of approximately 7.1% [55]. - The cold wallet market for cryptocurrency is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a rise from $3.5 billion in 2024 to $12.2 billion by 2033, driven by increasing concerns over digital asset security [60].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the often-overlooked impact of personal savings on climate change, highlighting that deposits in bank accounts can counteract individual efforts to reduce carbon footprints [1][11] - It discusses the significant role of banks in financing both low-carbon and high-carbon projects, with a concerning trend of continued support for fossil fuels despite the growth of green financing [3][5] Group 1: Financial Impact on Climate - Personal savings are not static; in the UK, billions of pounds in private savings enter the financial system monthly, influencing various sectors through loans and investments [3] - The credit decisions made by banks have profound environmental implications, as loans can either support renewable energy projects or contribute to fossil fuel industries, locking in carbon emissions for decades [3][5] - Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, top banks have provided nearly $7 trillion in financing to the fossil fuel industry, with no commitments to cease funding new oil, gas, or coal projects [3][5] Group 2: Green Financing vs. Fossil Fuels - Although green loan volumes have been increasing, with some banks reporting over 20% year-on-year growth, the scale of financing for fossil fuels remains significantly larger [3][5] - Many banks' green commitments are superficial, with 95% of climate action indicators showing no substantial change from previous years, and some banks using vague language to evade accountability [3][5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Banking Choices - The preference for traditional banking relationships is driven by psychological factors, with consumers often reluctant to switch banks despite the environmental implications of their choices [5][7] - Changing consumer perceptions about stability and the environmental impact of banking decisions is crucial for promoting responsible financial choices [7][11] Group 4: Climate Risks and Financial Stability - Climate risks are increasingly becoming financial risks, with extreme weather events leading to rising insurance claims and potential instability in the insurance sector [9] - The World Bank's climate funding for FY2024 is only $42.6 billion, while global banks financed fossil fuels with $705.8 billion in 2023, highlighting a significant imbalance that exacerbates climate-related financial risks [9] Group 5: Conclusion and Call to Action - The article concludes that every deposit in a bank represents a vote for the future, urging consumers to consider the environmental impact of their banking choices [11] - It advocates for breaking psychological inertia and understanding bank credit policies to promote environmental change through financial decisions [11]

Core Points - The eighth Paris Peace Forum is held from October 29 to 30, focusing on "A New Alliance for Peace, Humanity, and the Earth" [1] - The forum emphasizes collective action as essential for addressing global challenges, requiring new alliances across regions, sectors, and levels [1] - Climate crisis is a key topic, with discussions on the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, highlighting the need for collaborative climate action and biodiversity protection [1] Summary by Categories Event Overview - The Paris Peace Forum aims to promote multilateral cooperation to tackle global challenges, with its first edition held in 2018 [2] Key Themes - The forum's main theme revolves around the climate crisis, with a focus on mobilizing funding for climate action and ensuring inclusivity and fairness in ecological transition financing [1] - French President Macron calls for coordinated climate efforts among nations and emphasizes the importance of biodiversity protection [1] Participation and Impact - The incoming president of COP30 highlights the direct impact of climate change on global health and trade, stressing the need for broad participation in climate action [1] - There is a significant funding gap for global climate action, necessitating the engagement of multilateral development banks and the private sector [1]