2008 年那场惊心动魄的全球金融危机，至今仍让人心有余悸，银行巨头接连倒下，经济体系摇摇欲 坠，整个世界都陷入了恐慌与不安之中。 而现在又有个严峻的情况摆在眼前，那就是气候危机。它可不像普通的小麻烦，正悄无声息地对全球经 济产生巨大威胁，甚至可能比当年的金融危机破坏力还强。 近几年极端天气越来越频繁，强度也越来越大。 企业运营受影响，基础设施遭破坏，经济损失惨重。而面对这来势汹汹的气候危机，我们又该如何应 对，降低风险呢？ 气候危机下的经济隐患：历史与现状的映照 极端天气事件愈发频繁且强度增大，暴雨、热浪、飓风，都可能给经济带来一些隐患。 企业常常因为极端天气导致生产中断，原本高效运转的供应链，在洪水、高温等灾害面前变得支离破 碎。 长时间的干旱让大片农田颗粒无收，粮食产量锐减，进而推动粮食价格不断走高，这不仅影响着农民的 生计，更让依赖粮食供应的众多产业成本大增。 像一些沿海的工厂时常遭受台风、海平面上升带来的洪水威胁，厂房被淹，设备受损，修复和重新投入 生产需要耗费大量的人力、物力和财力。 而且，气候危机还让能源市场陷入动荡，传统能源供应不稳定，新能源的转型又面临着成本高、技术适 配等诸多难题。 200 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply of fresh lemon water at some Mixue Bingcheng stores in Shanghai is returning to normal after a recent shortage caused by weather-related delays in lemon imports and local harvesting issues [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing - A recent shortage of lemons was reported in multiple Mixue Bingcheng stores, but as of September 23, most locations have resumed normal supply levels [2]. - The national wholesale average price of lemons reached 14.98 yuan per kilogram as of September 22, nearly doubling from 7.87 yuan per kilogram a year earlier [3]. - The lemon market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to climate crises affecting global agricultural supply chains, with major production areas like Sichuan facing a 30%-60% reduction in output [4]. Group 2: Demand and Financial Performance - The demand for lemons has surged, with tea shops increasing their lemon purchases by 200% due to rising summer temperatures, leading to daily consumption rates exceeding 50 kilograms at top brands [4]. - Despite the rising costs of raw materials, Mixue Bingcheng has not increased the price of its fresh lemon water, which poses challenges for cost control [4]. - Mixue Bingcheng reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [6]. Group 3: Profit Margins - The gross profit margin of Mixue Bingcheng is relatively moderate, ranging between 29%-31% over the past two years, reflecting its focus on cost-effectiveness [5]. - The gross margin for the 5 yuan fresh lemon water is expected to be slightly lower than that of other higher-priced products [5].

Core Viewpoint - The climate crisis has significantly impacted the supply and pricing of lemons, which are essential for the popular lemon water product at Mixue Ice City, leading to a doubling of wholesale prices compared to last year [1][2]. Supply Situation - After experiencing a "lemon shortage crisis," many Mixue Ice City stores in Shanghai have returned to normal supply levels for their lemon water [1]. - A recent check revealed that only one out of approximately 30 stores was out of stock, indicating a recovery in supply [1]. - The shortage was attributed to delays in imported lemons due to weather conditions and the harvesting schedule of domestic lemons, but overall lemon reserves remain sufficient [2]. Price Dynamics - As of September 22, the national average wholesale price of lemons reached 14.98 yuan per kilogram, nearly double the 7.87 yuan per kilogram from the previous year [2]. - The price surge is linked to adverse weather conditions affecting major lemon-producing regions, including a 30%-60% reduction in production in Sichuan and a 25% decrease in Spain [2]. Financial Performance - Despite the rising costs of raw materials, Mixue Ice City has not increased the price of its lemon water, which poses challenges for cost control [3]. - The company's gross margin has remained relatively stable, ranging from 29% to 31% over the past two years, which is considered average within the industry [3]. - In the first half of the year, Mixue Ice City reported revenues of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Serbia's plum production is significantly impacted by extreme weather conditions, affecting both farmers' livelihoods and the production of traditional fruit brandy "rakija," highlighting the broader climate challenges faced by agriculture and the beverage industry across Europe [1][6]. Group 1: Plum Production in Serbia - Serbia is one of the world's major plum producers, with plum orchards accounting for approximately 40% of all fruit orchards [2]. - In 2024, Serbia's plum planting area is projected to reach 1.1 million acres, with an estimated yield of 387,200 tons [2]. - 70% of Serbia's plums are used to produce brandy, with "rakija" recognized as the national drink, playing a significant role in cultural and economic activities [2]. Group 2: Impact of Extreme Weather - The plum harvest season typically runs from mid-August to early September, but this year, many trees have produced very few fruits due to adverse weather [3]. - Factors contributing to the reduced plum yield include spring frost and summer drought, with estimates indicating a potential decline in yields of 30% to 90% for various stone fruits [3][4]. - As of July 2023, 99% of Serbia's soil is reported to be lacking water, with a drought alert rate of 68% [4]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - Farmers like Milutin, who usually produce around 6,000 liters of "rakija" and earn approximately €50,000, are facing losses of nearly €10,000 due to the drastic reduction in yield [4][5]. - The overall impact of reduced plum production extends beyond "rakija," affecting related industries such as jam, canned goods, and fresh fruit exports [6]. Group 4: Climate Resilience and Agricultural Modernization - The agricultural sector in Europe, including Serbia, is urged to adapt to climate change by modernizing farming practices, such as high-density planting and smart irrigation systems [6][7]. - Traditional plum orchards yield about 3.3 tons per hectare, while modernized orchards can achieve over 14 tons per hectare [6]. - Serbia's application for a €300 million "climate-resilient orchard" fund from the EU represents a proactive step towards addressing these challenges [8].

Core Viewpoint - The global insurance industry is facing a critical challenge as climate change leads to increasingly frequent extreme weather events, which may soon exceed the industry's capacity to provide coverage for financial services such as mortgages and investments [1][3]. Group 1: Insurance Industry Challenges - Allianz's board member, Gunther Thalinger, warns that the world is approaching a temperature level where insurance companies can no longer provide coverage for financial services like mortgages [3]. - Thalinger highlighted that losses from extreme weather are causing asset classes to "degrade in real-time," and the worsening climate crisis could potentially "destroy capitalism" [3]. - Approximately two-thirds of economic losses from natural disasters are currently uninsured, indicating a significant risk burden on individuals, businesses, and governments [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Natural Disasters - Zurich Insurance Group's report indicates that from 2014 to 2023, extreme weather events caused approximately $2 trillion in economic losses, with the frequency and intensity of disasters increasing due to long-term climate changes [4]. - The global insured loss growth rate (5.9%) has outpaced global economic growth over the past thirty years, suggesting a concerning trend for the insurance market [4]. - If the trend of increasing insured losses continues, insurance companies may need to raise climate-related premiums, which could affect individuals' and businesses' willingness and ability to purchase insurance [4].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that extreme weather events are becoming a norm due to climate change, with significant impacts on agriculture, urban operations, and daily life [3][4][6] - The average temperature in Henan province reached 30.5°C in July, which is 3.2°C higher than the historical average, marking the hottest period in 64 years [1][2] - The article highlights the urgent need for scientific understanding and effective responses to climate change challenges, as the current preparations are insufficient [11][12] Group 2 - The frequency of extreme weather events has increased significantly, with a notable rise in climate-related disasters over the past two decades [4][6] - The article discusses the dual impact of global warming, leading to more severe droughts and floods, which poses a threat to major grain-producing areas in China [3][8][16] - The agricultural sector is facing challenges such as increased irrigation costs and crop growth disruptions due to extreme temperatures [17][19] Group 3 - The article suggests that the transition to green energy is essential, requiring five times the current efforts to mitigate future disaster losses [12][13] - It points out that the agricultural infrastructure needs significant upgrades to adapt to extreme weather, including improved irrigation and drainage systems [20] - The potential for "weather-related price hikes" in agricultural products is highlighted, with extreme weather already causing fluctuations in global commodity prices [21][22] Group 4 - The article indicates that extreme weather will increasingly affect various industries, necessitating new financial tools for agricultural insurance [23] - It mentions that sectors like renewable energy and urban planning must adapt to the challenges posed by extreme weather events [24][25] - The need for a long-term strategy to combat climate change is emphasized, with a focus on adhering to national carbon neutrality goals [26]

Core Viewpoint - Climate extremization has become a norm, with global warming leading to intensified rainfall and drought conditions in specific regions, resulting in sudden shifts between drought and flooding [1][3][8]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Events - Recent years have seen a significant increase in extreme weather events globally, with high temperatures, floods, and storms becoming more frequent and intense [5][6]. - In July, the average temperature in Henan Province reached 30.5°C, 3.2°C higher than the historical average, marking the hottest period in 64 years [2]. - Northern China experienced above-average rainfall, with Inner Mongolia recording the highest precipitation for this period since 1961 [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Agriculture - Extreme weather is adversely affecting major grain-producing areas in China, with high temperatures and heavy rainfall impacting crop growth and increasing irrigation costs [3][14]. - The growth of winter wheat is particularly vulnerable to insufficient low-temperature periods, which can lead to premature ear formation and reduced yields [15]. - High temperatures can cause corn leaves to curl, affecting photosynthesis and increasing water requirements, thus raising irrigation costs for farmers [15]. Group 3: Future Projections and Preparedness - The ongoing climate crisis requires urgent action, with a need for five times the current effort to effectively address climate challenges [11]. - Transitioning to green renewable energy is essential, despite the associated costs, as it presents significant industrial opportunities while mitigating future disaster losses [11]. - The upcoming weather patterns indicate that northern regions may continue to face flooding, while southern areas will experience heightened drought conditions [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The volatility of agricultural prices due to extreme weather events is expected to persist, with "weather-related price hikes" becoming more common [16]. - Developing countries may be disproportionately affected by extreme climate events, leading to potential resource conflicts and social instability [17]. - Industries related to agriculture may need to adapt their insurance models and financial tools to better manage the risks associated with climate change [18]. Group 5: Urban Planning and Infrastructure - The concept of sponge cities is being emphasized, but their capacity to handle extreme rainfall is limited, necessitating additional strategies for flood management [19][20]. - Urban planning must evolve to incorporate designs that can effectively manage high temperatures and heavy rainfall, ensuring resilience against climate impacts [18][20].

Group 1: Climate Change and Extreme Weather - Extreme weather events have become a norm, with global warming leading to more severe droughts and floods in specific regions [3][6][7] - The frequency of extreme weather events has significantly increased, with a notable rise in climate-related disasters over the past two decades [4][5] - China is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its vast territory and complex geography, experiencing a higher rate of warming and natural disasters compared to the global average [5][6] Group 2: Agricultural Impact - Extreme weather is adversely affecting major grain-producing areas in China, with high temperatures and heavy rainfall impacting crop growth and increasing irrigation costs [3][13] - The growth of winter wheat is particularly sensitive to low-temperature periods, and insufficient cold weather can severely affect yields [13] - High temperatures can lead to increased water requirements for crops, further raising costs for farmers [13][15] Group 3: Preparedness and Response - Current preparations for climate change impacts are inadequate, with a significant gap between global carbon emissions and climate goals [9][10] - There is a need for a substantial increase in efforts to transition to renewable energy and improve agricultural infrastructure to adapt to extreme weather [10][16] - Agricultural companies must optimize crop varieties to withstand changing climate conditions, such as developing heat-resistant strains [15] Group 4: Economic Implications - Extreme weather events are likely to cause fluctuations in agricultural product prices, with "weather-related price hikes" becoming more common [17] - The impact of extreme weather on agriculture may necessitate new financial tools for insurance, including adjustments to disaster insurance designs [19] - Other industries, such as renewable energy and urban planning, will also need to adapt to the challenges posed by extreme weather [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The United Nations' negotiations for a legally binding agreement on plastic pollution have commenced, highlighting the urgent need for international cooperation to address this growing crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Health Impact of Plastic Pollution - A recent study published in The Lancet indicates that plastic pollution poses a significant and underappreciated threat to human health, resulting in economic losses related to health of at least $1.5 trillion annually [1]. - The study reveals that plastic pollution affects all stages of human life, from newborns to the elderly, and is linked to diseases and even death, categorizing it alongside air pollution and lead poisoning in terms of health risks [1]. - Microplastics have infiltrated natural ecosystems and human tissues, with scientists confirming their potential hazards, although comprehensive health impacts are still under investigation [1]. Group 2: Plastic Production and Recycling - Global plastic production has surged exponentially, increasing from 2 million tons in 1950 to 475 million tons in 2022, with projections suggesting a further doubling by 2060, while the current recycling rate remains below 10% [1]. Group 3: Interconnection with Climate Crisis - The plastic crisis is intrinsically linked to the climate crisis, as the plastic industry, reliant on fossil fuels, contributes to both environmental challenges, with health risks expected to escalate alongside rising global temperatures and increasing plastic production [1]. Group 4: Call for Action - The report urges representatives at the Geneva conference to seize this historic opportunity to seek consensus amidst differences and establish an effective international cooperation mechanism to combat this global crisis [2].

Group 1 - The book "The Rise of Religion and Capitalism" argues that contemporary economic views, particularly the belief in free markets, are deeply rooted in religious thought, contrasting with the traditional view of economics as a secular product of the Enlightenment [2] - It explores the historical connections between religion and economic thought, highlighting how Protestantism influenced modern economic ideas and how Calvinism shaped early capitalist values and behaviors [2] Group 2 - "Mediterranean Ten Cities" discusses how classical civilization, represented by ancient Greece and Rome, laid the foundation for contemporary Western culture and arts [4] - The author outlines the rich heritage left by classical civilization through ten cities, emphasizing the political ideologies born from the Greek city-states and the expansion of Greek culture across Europe and Asia [4] Group 3 - "Global Food Crisis: Industrialized Britain, Food Systems, and World Ecology" addresses the unprecedented global food crisis, linking it to unsustainable dietary choices and agricultural dependencies that threaten both human health and ecological balance [8] - The book traces the origins of this crisis back to late 18th-century Britain, where a diet rich in meat, wheat, and sugar became prevalent, leading to increased reliance on global resources [8] Group 4 - "The Possibilities of Development: Agricultural Modernization in the US and Mexico Before and After WWII" examines the historical similarities between the agricultural challenges faced by the southern United States and Mexico in the early 20th century [14] - It discusses how agricultural movements in both regions developed in parallel and influenced each other, particularly highlighting the impact of Roosevelt's New Deal policies on Mexican agricultural reforms [14] Group 5 - "The Legal Theater: A History of Legal Construction" explores the historical context of legal development in Western society, focusing on the roles of professors, legislators, and judges as key actors in the legal system [16] - The book traces the creative forces behind legal norms, including legal science, legislation, and judicial power, and their historical missions and functions [16] Group 6 - "The Milk Craze: Body, Science, and Hope" investigates the transformation of milk consumption in China from a fear of dairy to a strong preference for it, analyzing the cultural, social, and economic factors behind this shift [22] - The book discusses the historical relationship between milk production, consumption, and traditional health beliefs, as well as the impact of foreign milk products on the Chinese market [22] Group 7 - "The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time" describes the transition from pre-industrial to industrialized Europe, revealing significant ideological, social, and political changes during this period [32] - The author critiques the inherent flaws of self-regulating free markets and predicts the severe consequences of market economies on people, nature, and production organization [32]