、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价小幅下跌， 氧化铝供应少量修复 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 23 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿价小幅下跌，氧化铝供应少量修复 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西、河南的雨季过去，部分此前 因下雨停产的矿山已经恢复，但增量较为有限。采暖季深入，北 方山西及河南地区对非煤矿山开采管控亦愈发严格，尤其严查矿 山超产行为。山西、河南的矿山整顿行动仍然在继续，环保和安 全检查也并未放松。国产矿供应短时难以改善，市场实际流通的 矿石量极为有限。进口方面，几内亚矿报价区间为 70-71 美元/ 干吨，相比于上周下降 1 美元/干吨，价格有所松动。雨季后几 内亚矿的发货量处在恢复之中，12 月开始签订 2025 年长单和确 定一季度矿石价格 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 雨季后几内亚矿山迎来恢复性发货， 氧化铝检修规模扩大 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 月 16 日 | 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西、河南的雨季过去，部分此前 因下雨停产的矿山逐步要恢复生产, 雨季结束至春节前的传统 生产窗口期内，两地矿企生产活动预计将较前几月呈现边际改善 趋势。采暖季深入，北方山西及河南地区对非煤矿山开采管控亦 愈发严格，尤其严查矿山超产行为。国产矿供应短时难以改善， 市场实际流通的矿石量极为有限。进口方面，几内亚矿报价区间 为 71-72 美元/干吨，不同品位矿石价格差异显著。雨季后几内 亚矿山迎来恢复性发货，表明当地路况已显著改善，后续集港发 货将逐步回归正常节奏。几内亚政事主要忙于大选，西芒杜为当 下采矿业重中之重，对铝矿的前期历史遗留问题处理进程缓慢。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price stabilized last week, but the futures price continued a weak trend. The supply - demand situation shows an oversupply, yet the reduction in supply is limited and slow. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the downward rhythm and amplitude gradually being compressed [13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Supply in Guangxi improved after the rainy season, while production in Shanxi and Henan showed no significant increase. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term. Guinea resources are priced at CIF 71 - 72 dollars/ton, but the procurement intention of downstream alumina enterprises is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. Newly - arrived ore was 415.6 million tons during the period, including 302.1 million tons from Guinea and 97.2 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China remained high at 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price stabilized. The ALD northern comprehensive price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2810 - 2870 yuan/ton, and the domestic weighted index rose by 1.2 yuan/ton to 2871.2 yuan/ton. The import port price remained unchanged. The market price is approaching the cash - flow cost in Shanxi and Henan. The import profit in the north is about 12 yuan/ton. The full cost of domestic alumina is 2872 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 58 yuan/ton. Most enterprises maintained high production, but some suspended roasting due to heavy pollution warnings. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.75 million tons in operation, a decrease of 900,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Both domestic and overseas demand remained unchanged. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.253 million tons, and the overseas was 29.551 million tons, both unchanged from last week [13] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the national alumina inventory was 4.13 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons from last week. The inventory at the receiving end increased, the inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/narrowly fluctuated [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 237,167 tons, an increase of 15,910 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Tendering Result of a Northwest Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprise**: On October 31, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina, with the delivered price at about 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 23 [16] - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of October 31, the Australian alumina price was about 316 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.5 dollars/ton from last week. The cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the import profit was about 12 yuan/ton [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by heavy pollution control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei stopped 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and planned to resume gradually on October 31, with a temporary reduction in shipping volume but no impact on medium - term production [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume of major importing countries, sea - floating inventory, as well as domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][20][29][31][33] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina [36][38][41][44] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, yards/platforms/in - transit, the total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of ores remains weak, and the supply of alumina stays at a high level. The alumina spot price declined last week, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend. Although supply cuts have begun, the situation of oversupply remains unchanged [1][2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 was 596 yuan/ton. Challenges such as continuous rainfall, environmental inspections, and mine resource integration have limited domestic ore supply, increasing dependence on imports. The quote for Guinea resources is around CIF 72 dollars/ton, while downstream enterprises' procurement intention is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. There is no news of Shunda's resumption of production. Newly - arrived ores totaled 348.9 million tons, including 261.3 million tons from Guinea and 97.7 million tons from Australia. The reference price for the Cape ship market from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2870 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The decline in the northern market slowed down, while that in the southern market expanded. The downstream's phased inquiry and purchase scale increased. There were two overseas spot transactions, which impacted the domestic market. The full cost of domestic alumina was 2877 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 76 yuan/ton. The operating capacity increased by 50 million tons to 9765 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.2% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be stable in the next two months, with the current operating capacity at 4425.3 million tons. Overseas, the Nordural electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production by 21.5 million tons due to electrical equipment failure, and the current operating capacity dropped to about 11 million tons. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 2955.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21.5 million tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 406.1 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from last week. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was relatively stable, the inventory at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise, the bagged inventory at the alumina end increased slightly, the port inventory fluctuated temporarily, and the inventory in delivery warehouses, public warehouses, stations, and transit increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221257 tons, a decrease of 5 tons from last week. The futures price of alumina continued to be weak. The price of Guinea ore in the fourth quarter is about 73 dollars, and the cash cost of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton. Some alumina enterprises in these regions have started to incur losses, and supply cuts have begun, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend, and the downward space is being squeezed [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The import profit of alumina has been narrowing. As of October 24, the Australian alumina quote was about 314 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from October 17. The estimated cost of reaching the northern ports in China is about 2865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The import cost is basically the same as the domestic northern quote [15] - On October 24, a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise tendered to purchase 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 20 [15] - On October 23, a northwest aluminum plant tendered to purchase less than 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3015 - 3020 yuan/ton, with a narrow fluctuation of about 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous tender on October 15 [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the price of domestic and imported bauxite, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trend, domestic steam coal price trend, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Multiple charts are presented to show data including domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from June to October 2025 [35][37][42] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/station/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an oscillating rating for alumina [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are running weakly, and the supply of alumina has been reduced due to factors such as limited ore supply and production plan adjustments [1][2] - The price of domestic ore has remained stable, but the supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term, and the supply of inland ore further depends on imported ore [1][11] - The spot price of alumina has declined, but the willingness of merchants to ship goods is relatively strong, and the supply of some enterprises has been reduced [2][12] - The demand for alumina at home and abroad remains unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered a stable period [12] - The inventory of alumina has increased, and the inventory has a tendency to transfer to the non - terminal circulation link [13] - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend, but the downward space is gradually being squeezed [14] Summary According to the Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week, but the supply of domestic ore is facing challenges due to environmental inspections, resource integration, and rainfall. The supply of imported ore is also facing some problems, such as low downstream acceptance of the price of Guinean ore. The new arrival of ore during the period was 4.049 million tons, including 2.731 million tons from Guinea and 0.916 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China remained at a relatively high level of $24.5 per ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The supply of some enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other places has been reduced due to limited ore supply or production plan adjustment. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity is 97.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with last week, and the operating rate is 84.8%. The domestic and overseas demand for alumina has not changed, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered a stable period [2][12] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, an increase of 0.115 million tons compared with last week. The inventory has a tendency to transfer to the non - terminal circulation link [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221,262 tons, an increase of 45,233 tons compared with last week. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend, but the downward space is gradually being squeezed [14] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain During the Week - In September 2025, China's alumina export volume was 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.8% [15] - On October 17, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Brazil at an FOB price of $323.06 per ton for the November 2025 shipment [15] - As of October 17, the price of Australian alumina decreased by $5 per ton compared with October 10. The theoretical import profit in the north decreased from $7 per ton in the previous week to - $10 per ton, and the import profit continued to narrow [15] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report monitors data such as the price of domestic bauxite, the price of imported bauxite, the port inventory of domestic bauxite, the port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, the floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, the price trend of domestic caustic soda, the price trend of domestic steam coal, and the production cost of alumina in various provinces [16][18][20] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report monitors data such as the spot price of alumina in various provinces, the price of imported alumina, the spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From June to October 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand gap decreased in October [33][40][41] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report monitors data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, the domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, the alumina port inventory, the total domestic social inventory of alumina, the warehouse receipt volume and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [43][46][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is expected to experience a weekly - level consolidation, with the price center likely to move upward. The aluminum market has entered the "traditional consumption peak season", and downstream demand is a mixed bag. The overall aluminum price still needs to break through the convergent pattern, and both the unilateral direction and volatility tend to the long - side. [3] - For alumina, attention should be paid to the spot sales pressure, and there may still be room for the price to decline. The overall price center of alumina has moved down this week, and the spot sales pressure is increasing, which may still drag down the AO futures market. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 67 yuan/ton to 126 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changed from 87 yuan/ton to 166 yuan/ton. [9] - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has widened. [10] - **Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, and its trading volume decreased slightly. [12] - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [17] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of August 29, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 90,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of August, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants remained stable. As of August 29, the weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory also decreased. As of August 22, the bauxite out - port volume from Australia's Weipa + Gove ports increased slightly, while that from Guinea's Boffa + Kamsar ports decreased slightly, and the bauxite arrival volume decreased. [22][27][28] - **Alumina**: The national total alumina inventory continued to increase. As of Thursday (August 28), the national alumina inventory was 3.497 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared with last week. The alumina inventory in plants, at electrolytic aluminum plants, and at ports increased, while the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit decreased slightly. [36][48] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase. As of August 28, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 610,000 tons. [49] - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed a divergent trend, and the out - port volume decreased. [55] - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization - **Bauxite**: In August, the domestic bauxite supply measured by the SMM caliber decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important increment for the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite output in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi measured by the Steel Union caliber increased slightly, while in August, the bauxite output in these three provinces measured by the SMM caliber decreased. [62][65] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 29, the total operating capacity of alumina across the country was 94.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.847 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with last week, and it is still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - loose pattern of alumina fundamentals has not been reversed. [69] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of August 21, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum measured by the Steel Union caliber was 848,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous week, and the output level remained at a six - year high. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the aluminum - water ratio showed a seasonal increase, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure. [73] - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the output of aluminum plate - foil increased slightly by 3,800 tons compared with last week. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 1,860 tons week - on - week, while the output of aluminum rods increased by 6,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream processing enterprises increased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. [75][77][82] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, and the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina measured by the Steel Union caliber was 390.1 yuan/ton, maintaining a good level of smelting profit. The alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [89] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the current complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty factors, interfering with market expectations. [99] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased slightly by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [100] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit & Loss, Export Profit & Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit & Loss**: The import profit & loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum has widened. [108] - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit & loss of aluminum processed materials showed a divergent trend, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments. [110][112] - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased month - on - month. [117]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Pay attention to the callback pressure as the downstream demand is triggering a negative feedback, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed [3][4]. - Alumina: The valuation should not be set high as the "anti - involution" lacks industry details, and the market is in a new inventory accumulation cycle [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest 3.1.1 Term Spreads - The term structure of Shanghai aluminum has changed to a C - structure, and the average SMM A00 aluminum premium has decreased from 100 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed [10]. 3.1.2 Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts have narrowed [11]. 3.1.3 Open Interest and Volume - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract remained stable, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume rebounded during the week [18]. 3.1.4 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.2.1 Bauxite - Port inventory and inventory days decreased. As of July 4, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 650,000 tons week - on - week. In May, the port inventory and inventory days showed a continuous accumulation trend [24]. - In May, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises rebounded, with an increase of 4.487 million tons month - on - month [29]. - Port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded. As of July 4, the port shipments from Guinea and Australia increased by 62,900 tons and 150,300 tons respectively week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory from Guinea and Australia increased by 9.04 million tons and 4.678 million tons respectively week - on - week [30]. - Out - port volume decreased, and in - port volume increased slightly. As of June 27, the out - port volume from Australia and Guinea decreased, while the SMM - caliber bauxite in - port volume increased by 698,300 tons week - on - week [34]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The national total inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 23,000 tons week - on - week. The plant - level inventory remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreased [43]. - The Aladdin full - caliber inventory continued to accumulate. As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week [48]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed, but the amplitude is not large. As of July 3, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 6,000 tons to 466,000 tons [49]. 3.2.4 Aluminum Rod - Spot inventory and plant - level inventory accumulated, and the out - port volume decreased [55]. 3.2.5 Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil - The raw material and finished product inventory ratios showed differentiation. In May, the SMM - caliber finished product inventory ratio of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while that of plate - foil increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate 3.3.1 Bauxite - In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed differentiation. The overall domestic bauxite supply contracted, and the imported bauxite supply was an important increment. The production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased significantly [63][64]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental supply - loose pattern remained unchanged. As of July 4, the national operating total capacity was 90.8 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.748 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May, the operating capacity continued to be high, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. As of July 3, the weekly output was 844,200 tons, a decrease of 70 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream Processing - The output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and plate - foil decreased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 730 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 7,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of plate - foil decreased by 800 tons week - on - week [77]. - The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises continued to decline, with a 0.1% decrease to 58.7% week - on - week. The operating rates of various sectors were generally under pressure [78]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.4.1 Alumina - The profit decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while that in Guangxi was better [84]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations due to the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [94]. 3.4.3 Downstream Processing - The processing fee of aluminum rods increased slightly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand 3.5.1 Import Profits and Losses - The import profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum were basically stable [103]. 3.5.2 Export - From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed materials decreased. In May, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons [105]. - The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation, and the export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [108]. 3.5.3 Consumption Absolute Quantity - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for alumina is "oscillating" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The third - quarter bauxite long - term contract price in Guinea has been finalized, and the spot price of alumina has declined. It is recommended to treat alumina from a short - term oscillating perspective [1][5][17] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Due to factors such as strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, bauxite mining in Shanxi and Henan was restricted, and prices remained firm. In the south, ore supply was stable, and most enterprises had completed restocking. The third - quarter bauxite long - term contract price from mainstream miners was between $74 - 75 per dry ton. After July, miners' quotes were above $77 per ton (CIF), while downstream customers' purchasing intentions were around $70 per ton (CIF). It is expected that Guinea's shipments will decline significantly in July. During the period, 3503000 tons of new ore arrived, including 2798000 tons from Guinea and 705000 tons from Australia. The freight from Guinea to China was $22 per ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was between 3050 - 3100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 55 yuan per ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3087.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40.4 yuan per ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was between 3200 - 3250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton. The spot transaction was good, and the restocking intention of aluminum plants and traders at low prices was strong. In the northern market, 33500 tons of spot alumina were traded this week, an increase of 9400 tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3061 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton. In India, 30000 tons of alumina were traded at FOB $366 and FOB $380 per ton respectively, and the import window was closed. As of the current week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2861 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 328 yuan per ton. The overall alumina production capacity in China was relatively stable, with slight fluctuations in some regions. The national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.15 million tons, an increase of 100000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 82.5% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.083 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90000 tons. Overseas, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 29.571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83000 tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (June 26), the national alumina inventory was 3.137 million tons, an increase of 13000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of some single aluminum plants in the northern inland and some industrial chain groups in the northwest increased significantly, while the inventory of some aluminum plants in the North China region continued to decline slightly. The overall inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise; the inventory of alumina enterprises fluctuated slightly; the port inventory of imported alumina fluctuated slightly; the estimated amount of in - transit alumina increased significantly, and the inventory of the delivery warehouse decreased significantly [15] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 30319 tons, a decrease of 12909 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price was strong last week. The price of Guinea ore in the third quarter was basically finalized at around $75, and the ore price remained stable. The cash cost of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan was between 2900 - 3000 yuan per ton. With the release of复产 and new production capacity, the alumina supply has become slightly surplus, suppressing the upward price [16] 2. Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain This Week - On June 27, 4000 tons of spot alumina were traded in the northern market at a price between 3100 - 3120 yuan per ton, with goods from Shanxi and Henan and transactions between traders [18] - As of June 26, the FOB price of Australian alumina was $360 per ton. After calculating the real - time freight, exchange rate, and port taxes, the import cost to Chinese ports was 3183 yuan per ton. Compared with the current mainstream northern domestic quotation of 3075 yuan per ton, the theoretical import profit was - 108 yuan per ton, and there was no import advantage [18] - On June 25, 30000 tons of alumina were traded in India at an FOB price of $380.03 per ton, with a shipment in early July. This price was about $14 higher than the price at the beginning of the week [18] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: Multiple charts were provided, including those related to domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [19][21][22] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: Charts showed domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. Data from February to June 2025 showed changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the supply - demand gap [35][43][44] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts were presented, including those related to electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the amount and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [46][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is oscillating strongly with low inventory unchanged, and attention should be paid to the potential transmission of downstream negative feedback. The key contradiction lies in the total installation volume and production scheduling rhythm in the second half of the year. The confirmation of the demand inflection point still needs to wait for the confirmation of the inventory inflection point and changes in export shipping capacity. The downstream processing profit is at a low level in the same period over the years, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback and the resilience of downstream buying interest [3]. - Alumina has low inventory and low warehouse receipts, and the futures price is oscillating slightly higher. The resumption of production continues, but the dilemma of low inventory and few warehouse receipts remains unchanged. The valuation at the current price has become a key point affecting the long - short game. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of resumption of production to inventory and changes in port inventory [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term B structure of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has narrowed. The average price of SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from 180 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from 50 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month has changed from 248 yuan/ton to 119 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina has changed from 258 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum has widened [10]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has also increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has remained stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded this week [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level [18]. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days have increased. As of June 27, the weekly imported bauxite port inventory has increased by 1760000 tons compared with last week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and inventory days in China according to the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. The port shipping volume has declined, and the floating inventory has shown differentiation. The alumina enterprises' bauxite inventory has rebounded in May [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The national total inventory has increased. As of June 26, the national alumina inventory has increased by 13000 tons to 3137000 tons compared with last week. The inventory in the alumina plant, electrolytic aluminum plant, and port has increased, while the inventory in the yard/platform/in - transit has decreased slightly [50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation needs further confirmation. As of June 26, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory has increased by 10000 tons to 460000 tons [51]. - **Aluminum Rod**: Spot inventory and in - plant inventory have increased, and the shipping volume has declined [56]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have shown differentiation. As of May, the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has declined slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio has also declined slightly. The finished product inventory of SMM aluminum plate - foil has rebounded slightly, and the raw material inventory has increased [59]. Production: Output, Production Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply has shown a recovery trend, but the domestic bauxite output has declined in May. The supply of imported bauxite is still an important increment. The production in different provinces has shown differentiation [63]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate has remained stable, but the loose fundamental pattern has not been reversed. As of June 27, the total operating production capacity of national alumina is 90000000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1400000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1729000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons compared with last week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating production capacity remains at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of May, the operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly. As of June 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to the steel union caliber is 844900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with last week [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate - foil has continued to decline slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods and aluminum rods has declined, and the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises has continued to decline, with a strong off - season atmosphere [75][77][78]. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Alumina**: The smelter still has profits, and attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance and resumption of production. This week, the alumina profit has declined slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit of 304.9 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined, while the profit in Guangxi is better [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit is still at a high level, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty [92][95]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has been significantly reduced, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [96]. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have rebounded [104]. - **Export**: From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed aluminum products has declined. In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has continued to rebound, with a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons [106]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area has rebounded, and the automobile production has increased month - on - month [115].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on alumina is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, while the long - term view is to mainly adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The current reduction in ore inventory will not cause a long - term supply gap, which limits the upside potential of alumina prices and profits. With the release of复产 and new production capacity, the supply gap of alumina has narrowed [15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 668 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on mine output. Three mines in the AXIS mining area remained shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased, with the mainstream price at 74 - 75 dollars/dry ton. Newly arrived ore was 367.1 million tons, including 269.1 million tons from Guinea and 81.3 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China rose slightly to 20 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: Spot prices rose overall. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3297.7 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3250 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market supply contraction supported the price. In the northern market, 2.5 million tons of alumina were traded, down 2.2 million tons from last week, with a weighted trading price of 3304 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. In Indonesia, 3 million tons of alumina were traded at FOB 373 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3253 yuan/ton in RMB. The domestic alumina full - cost was 3087 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 184 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11242 million tons and an operating capacity of 8930 million tons, up 130 million tons from last week, and an operating rate of 79.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 4392.3 million tons, flat week - on - week. Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants in New Zealand, Germany started the复产 work, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 8 million tons week - on - week to 2948.8 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of May 29th, the national alumina inventory was 316.2 million tons, down 4.8 million tons from last week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was basically stable; the inventory of alumina enterprises was mostly low; the port alumina inventory was at a low level [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 128201 tons, down 35998 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3350 yuan/ton on May 29th - In Henan, 0.4 million tons of alumina were traded on May 28th, with a weighted average price of 3295 yuan/ton - 0.2 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong on May 28th at a price of 3300 yuan/ton [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From January to May 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina changed over time [31][32][37] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [40][43][45]