投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.14 | 2025.11.21 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2025.11.14 | 2025.11.21 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 8644 | 8550 | -94 | -1.09 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8690 | 8676 | -14 | -0.16 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9923 | 9816 | -107 | -1.08 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10287 | 10140 | -147 | -1.43 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8256 | 8190 | -66 | -0.80 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8462 | 84 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso for the 2025/26 season has reached 60.05%, an increase of 16.48 percentage points from last week, higher than the five - year average of 57.27% and the same period last year of 55.73% [1] Group 2: Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/10/20 | 2870 | 2480 | 8540 | - | 10230 | | 2025/10/21 | 2870 | 2450 | 8550 | 9200 | 10210 | | 2025/10/22 | 2860 | 2440 | 8480 | 9070 | 10160 | | 2025/10/23 | 2910 | 2470 | 8410 | 9030 | 10060 | | 2025/10/24 | 2910 | 2460 | 8440 | 9020 | 10090 | [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put - type strategies on dips can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8150, 9234, and 10093 respectively, with changes of (12), (2), and (69). The spot basis of different varieties in various regions also showed different trends. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and in Tianjin it was 170 with a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 238, 174, and 503 respectively, with changes of 2, (10), and (17) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (1084), 1943, and 859 respectively, with changes of (10), (57), and (67). The oil - meal ratio was 2.78 with a change of (0.0003) [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the October shipment had a CNF price of 1096 and a negative profit of (119); the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the November shipment was 1069 and a negative profit of (433) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 38th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 123.6, 58.5, and 58.6 million tons respectively, compared with 125.1, 64.2, and 61.0 million tons last week and 115.6, 50.6, and 40.5 million tons in the same period last year [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the next few months, reaching around 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports to meet holiday demand [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons or 5.62% from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 150. The basis is stable. The short - term market lacks a clear driver but has strong bottom support, and it is recommended to consider light - position buying on significant dips [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 226.72 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%. As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 124.87 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons or 1.04% from last week. The short - term domestic supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. Considering the uncertainty of U.S. soybean imports, it is recommended to consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 2 million tons, with an operating rate of 5.33%. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons or 2.2%. The European rapeseed oil FOB price has increased, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 450. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and the basis is stable with an increase. The coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue. Considering the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect the oil and fat futures market to fluctuate, and consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Consider selling put - type strategies on dips [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the historical trends of spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, including data from 2016 - 2025 [14][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market lacks a strong upward driver and will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the later period, the combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and the stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4][53]. - Currently, domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking, and it may continue to do so slightly in the future, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight [4][53]. - The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. With insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking, which will support its price [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats. The rapeseed oil 01 contract rose nearly 4%, soybean oil fell more than 2%, and palm oil fell nearly 1% [3][10]. - Affected by policies such as the US renewable fuel policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and Argentina's export tariff policy, the oil and fat market fluctuated. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen, with OI - Y01 reaching a high of around 2000 [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In the short term, the oil and fat futures market will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips. The combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4]. - Domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking and may continue to do so slightly, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and it will continue to destock marginally, which will support its price [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the oil and fat market is volatile. Consider buying on dips in batches [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a positive spread arbitrage strategy for OI 1 - 5, but do not chase high prices [5]. - Options: Buy call options or sell put options [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, in September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats, and the market fluctuated due to policy factors. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen [3][10]. 3.2.2 Malaysia's Palm Oil Inventory Accumulated in August, Indonesia's Production Surged in July, and the Overall Inventory Remains Tight - Malaysia: In August, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil reached 220 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production increased by 2% to 186 tons, exports decreased to 132 tons, and apparent consumption reached a record high. It is expected that the production increase in September may decline, with an estimated output of about 177 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. Exports in September are expected to be slightly higher than the 5 - year average [15]. - Indonesia: In July, Indonesia's palm oil production reached 560 tons, a 6% increase, and exports were 354 tons. The inventory slightly increased to 257 tons, remaining at a historically low level. As of July, the cumulative production from January to July was 3349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. It is expected that the annual production increase will exceed 200 tons [23]. 3.2.3 The International Soybean Oil Price Declined, and India Made Large - Scale Soybean Oil Purchases - Import: As of August, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 1238 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by 19%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 389 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 25% [31]. - Inventory: In August, India's port inventory increased to 97 tons. Palm oil inventory increased from 45 to 54 tons, while sunflower oil and soybean oil inventories decreased to around 21 tons [31]. - Price: Recently, the increase in India's domestic edible oil prices has slowed down. Currently, India mainly has import and refining profits for sunflower oil. Due to Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs, the international soybean oil price declined, and the soybean - palm oil spread narrowed to below 0 dollars. It is rumored that India purchased 30 tons of Argentine soybean oil [31]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oils and Fats May Gradually Destock, and the Basis of Oils and Fats Will Increase Steadily - Palm oil: As of September 19, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 58.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 tons. The import profit was negative, but the purchase enthusiasm increased, and the far - month purchases were relatively large. It is expected that the combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [35][37]. - Soybean oil: In August, soybean crushing was about 899 tons, and soybean oil production was about 171 tons. In September and October, soybean arrivals and crushing are expected to decrease. As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 123.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The soybean oil market will maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider buying on dips [38]. - Rapeseed oil: In August, rapeseed crushing was about 22 tons, and rapeseed oil production was about 10 tons. As of September 19, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.61 tons, a decrease. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [39][40]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that Malaysian palm oil production may decline in September, and exports may increase slightly. The combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [53]. - Domestic soybean oil will continue to slightly destock, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. One can consider buying on dips when the price is low [53]. - Domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of palm oil has improved overall, with production decreasing and exports increasing in August in Malaysia. Indonesia's palm oil production and inventory data also show certain trends. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the overall situation of the three major oils is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies [27][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined. Palm oil futures fell by 2.88%, rapeseed oil by 1.02%, and soybean oil by 1.18%. The spot prices also decreased, with palm oil down 0.40%, rapeseed oil down 0.58%, and soybean oil down 0.94% [2] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of August 28, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 76 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and 118 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 29, the YP spread was - 958 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.5 tons (up 0.05 tons from the previous week), the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 58.21 tons (down 3.52 tons), the national soybean oil mill inventory was 118.60 tons (up 4.33 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.31 tons (up 0.86 tons) [8] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [11] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.80 tons (down 2.8 tons from the previous week), the major oil mill soybean inventory was 682.53 tons (up 2.13 tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (unchanged from the previous week). As of August 29, the soybean crushing profit was - 586.00 yuan/ton (down 19.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [17] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 15 tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2575.00 yuan/ton (up 291.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20] Demand Side - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 2966 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 10000 tons. The POGO spread was 450.99 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [26] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. Foreign: USDA reported that the US soybean yield increased, the sown area decreased, and the production decreased; MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports all changed in July. Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was unchanged, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories were stable. Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean oil inventory increased. Spot: The spot prices of the three major oils all decreased this week [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Palm oil fluctuated weakly at a high level this week, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 9200 - 9650. Medium - and long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and the expected fluctuation range is 9200 - 10000. The focus and risk warnings next week are the US biodiesel policy, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [28][29][30]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 8492, opening price 8450, high price 8490, low price 8412, closing price 8466, down 26 (-0.31%), volume 445676, open interest change -3164 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8498, opening price 8452, high price 8488, low price 8420, closing price 8468, down 30 (-0.35%), volume 46546, open interest change 3486 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7968, opening price 7936, high price 7940, low price 7862, closing price 7894, down 74 (-0.93%), volume 308543, open interest change -22325 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7958, opening price 7930, high price 7930, low price 7872, closing price 7902, down 56 (-0.70%), volume 81936, open interest change 19354 [7] - OI2509: Previous settlement price 9614, opening price 9590, high price 9608, low price 9512, closing price 9548, down 66 (-0.69%), volume 265206, open interest change -16717 [7] - OI2601: Previous settlement price 9547, opening price 9522, high price 9549, low price 9451, closing price 9492, down 55 (-0.58%), volume 36194, open interest change 3884 [7] - Quotes from Dongguan rapeseed oil traders: Dongguan triple - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 60, single - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 240. Basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single - refined soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509 + 220, October - January Y2601 + 300. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 150 yuan/ton, real orders subject to negotiation [7] Oil and Fat Review - Oil and fat prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpectedly reduced production and strong exports. China's domestic oil and fat supply - demand is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, during the off - season of domestic oil and fat consumption, oil and fat inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil and fat price spread shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. If crude oil and US soybean oil weaken, the short - term trend of domestic oil and fat will be under pressure. Attention should still be paid to the progress of US tariff policies [8] 2. Industry News - Reuters survey: Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, production is 1.7 million tons (down 4.04% month - on - month), and exports are 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's estimated data shows that June production is 1.74 million tons, exports are 1.44 million tons, and inventory is 2 million tons [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 is estimated to be 1.69 million tons (down 4.69% month - on - month). Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased 0.68% month - on - month, production in Sabah decreased 11.95% month - on - month, production in Sarawak decreased 8.98% month - on - month, and production in East Malaysia decreased 11.24% month - on - month [9] - Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 decreased 0.65% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased 0.23%, and oil extraction rate decreased 0.08% [9] - Shipping survey agency SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.195265 million tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to 1.069643 million tons in May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to 132,000 tons in the same period last month. ITS exports were 1.382 million tons (up 4.7% month - on - month), and AmSpec data was 1.286 million tons (up 4.5% month - on - month) [9][10] 3. Data Overview - StoneX raised Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season by over 500,000 tons to a record 168.75 million tons due to higher production in Bahia state [15] - As of July 4, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6.4 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month were 1.5 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in July 2025 is 11.3 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons (7.32% month - on - month) compared with the forecasted arrival volume of 10.5 million tons last month, and an increase of 1.9 million tons (20.86% year - on - year) compared with the arrival schedule of 9.3 million tons in the same period last year [15]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]