文字早评 2026/01/13 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中国机电商会：中欧成功推动电动汽车反补贴案实现"软着陆"；欧委会承诺，符合条件的企业可 用价格承诺替代反补贴征税； 2、力鸿一号完成首次亚轨道飞行试验，其运送的返回式载荷舱顺利着陆完成回收，这是国内商业航天 首次百公里亚轨道伞降回收试验； 3、脑机海河实验室：在航空航天领域开发五代空间站在轨脑机交互系统，完成人类首次"太空脑机接 口实验"； 4、多个有色及贵金属期货品种价格创新高。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.19%/-0.33%/-1.14%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.11%/-0.15%/-2.01%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/-0.03%/-0.55%/-3.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.06%/-0.14%/-0.11%/-0.33%。 【策略观点】 年初增量资金入场，融资规模大幅走高，市场成交量快速放大。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL ...

转自：贵州日报 社交平台上关于抢票兼职的帖子。 贵州日报天眼新闻记者 操作简单、日结高薪、超低门槛……近期，在各类社交平台和兼职群里，类似高薪"兼职"信息频繁出现。 看似"轻松躺赚"的机会背后，具体需要哪些操作？隐藏着什么秘密？又是否存在个人信息与法律的双重风 险？记者就此展开调查。 证卡信息全上交 "工作内容：演唱会场抢门票，做过的不行""晚班20:00-04:00，日结300元，超过时间按20元/小时计算""不需 要自己手机操作，有工作人员操作，自己在旁边玩手机到下班，睡觉都可以"……根据一则兼职信息，记者在 求职中介指引下，前往应聘。 按约定时间走进一家挂牌为"某网络科技"的公司，记者看到已有约20名求职者在现场等候。 "昨天人排到走廊，改约今天。"一位求职者说。 随后，有工作人员来到等候区，介绍招聘内容。 随后，该工作人员收走愿意参加兼职的求职者身份证，然后进入办公室。 等待期间，该工作人员偶尔从紧闭的办公室门中探出头，按身份证信息通知求职者进入办公室提供验证码或 配合人脸识别。 记者观察到，在此过程中，有部分求职者因"注册不了"，或"曾被封禁过""参加过类似兼职"被通知离开。 含糊操作引担忧 结束调 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luxembourg Prime Minister Frieden expressed concerns about the EU's potential use of frozen Russian assets to provide compensation loans to Ukraine, highlighting the complex financial and legal risks involved, which could impact the overall stability of the EU [2] Group 1: Financial Risks - Frieden emphasized that using Russian assets to support Ukraine could lead to "serious financial risks" [2] - He suggested that utilizing the EU budget for aid is more feasible as it would not jeopardize the stability of the Eurozone, although it requires unanimous agreement from EU member states [2] Group 2: Legal Complexity - The issuance of compensation loans backed by frozen Russian assets is described as "unprecedented" in history, with media and the public often underestimating the potential legal complexities involved [2] - Frieden pointed out that this issue is not only a concern for Belgium but is relevant to the financial stability of the entire EU, necessitating comprehensive discussions among national leaders [2] Group 3: Current Situation - Since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, Western countries have frozen approximately $300 billion of Russian overseas assets, with the EU freezing around €210 billion of assets from the Russian central bank [2] - About 90% of the frozen Russian assets within the EU are controlled by the European Clearing Bank based in Brussels, and the EU has announced an "indefinite freeze" on these assets, with plans to finalize specific proposals during the EU summit on the 18th and 19th [2]

Tax and Legal Risk Management - High net worth individuals face significant costs related to taxation and legal risks [1] - Industry suggests implementing family trusts to isolate assets from risks associated with marital changes or unforeseen liabilities, potentially preventing a 50% asset loss [1] - The sector proposes utilizing offshore structures to optimize tax strategies [1]

Core Insights - The investment attractiveness of Central Asia is increasing as the Belt and Road Initiative enters a new phase of high-quality development, with significant strategic implications for China's foreign openness [1] - However, legal risks coexist with investment opportunities, as Central Asian countries are undergoing a transformation of their legal systems, which presents challenges for foreign enterprises [1] Group 1: Market Entry and Establishment Risks - Central Asian countries primarily use a "negative list" management model to attract foreign investment, with strict regulations on foreign access to sectors related to national interests, such as mining and oil [4] - Kazakhstan retains the right to unilaterally modify or terminate contracts in certain situations, indicating significant uncertainty in market entry [4] - Uzbekistan's 2020 Investment Law allows for some legal stability for foreign investments, but exceptions related to national security and public health introduce considerable uncertainty [5] Group 2: Operational Risks - Local labor market policies in Central Asia require companies to hire local employees and provide training, with strict penalties for non-compliance [8] - Tax incentives aimed at attracting foreign investment often lack consistency and transparency, leading to potential unilateral changes by host countries [9] - Environmental regulations are becoming increasingly stringent, with significant implications for projects in sectors like mining and energy [10] Group 3: Dispute Resolution and Exit Risks - High costs and inefficiencies in local judicial systems deter foreign investors from seeking local remedies for disputes [12] - International arbitration clauses in investment agreements do not eliminate risks, as host countries may limit their applicability through domestic legislation [13][14] - Currency exchange and capital repatriation risks are present, as foreign investment laws may allow for temporary controls during economic crises [15] Group 4: Systematic Response Strategies - Companies should enhance their capacity to utilize international law, particularly bilateral investment treaties, to navigate the legal complexities in Central Asia [18] - Establishing a robust policy risk protection system through political risk insurance can mitigate systemic risks [20] - Conducting thorough due diligence before investment is crucial for identifying legal risks and ensuring compliance with local laws [21] - Developing a localized operational framework can enhance social acceptance and political legitimacy in the region [22] Group 5: Future Legal Environment Changes - The legal landscape in Central Asia is expected to evolve with improved legal coordination under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the implementation of economic cooperation plans [27] - Emerging sectors like digital trade and renewable energy present new opportunities but also introduce new compliance requirements [27]

Core Insights - The article highlights the risks associated with a new trend in gold purchasing, where consumers use runners for "human flesh purchasing" of gold bars, claiming to save significant amounts of money, but this practice carries hidden criminal risks [1][4]. Group 1: Risks of Gold Purchasing - The low-priced gold in the Shui Bei market attracts consumers, but the reliance on runners for the entire purchasing process raises ethical concerns and risks of fraud [4][5]. - The "human goods separation" model of purchasing is identified as a typical characteristic of money laundering, which could lead to consumers facing legal consequences even if they are unaware of any wrongdoing [5][8]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Environment - Law enforcement agencies are monitoring gold transactions that involve separation of goods and funds, and financial institutions are conducting thorough reviews of unusual money flows [8]. - Consumers are urged to revert to legitimate channels for gold transactions, such as banks or physical stores, to protect their rights and avoid potential legal issues [8]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation Risks - The high value and small size of gold make it a prime target for theft or substitution during transportation, with cases of undelivered or swapped items being reported [7]. - Consumers may face significant financial losses if gold is not insured during shipping, as compensation is often limited to three times the shipping cost [7].

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas is facing significant stock declines due to a court ruling linking the bank to human rights abuses in Sudan, raising concerns about potential settlement payouts that could reach billions [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock dropped approximately 8% following a court loss in the US, where three Sudanese plaintiffs were awarded damages for BNP's alleged support of the Sudanese regime [3]. - The total verdict was $21 million, but there are over 20,000 additional plaintiffs in the US, indicating a potential for much larger financial liabilities [3][4]. Group 2: Legal Implications - The ongoing legal case presents a new risk for BNP Paribas that may not have been fully recognized previously, suggesting that the bank could face substantial costs [4]. - Lawyers for the plaintiffs have indicated that BNP Paribas should consider settling, with figures being discussed in the low billions [5]. Group 3: Market Reaction - The market appears to be reacting to worst-case scenarios due to the uncertainty surrounding the potential financial impact of the legal issues [5]. - Despite the stock's significant drop, some analysts suggest that the declines may be overdone until more clarity is provided regarding the actual risks involved [5].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Zong Fuli has triggered significant turmoil within the Wahaha market, leading to a "ban order" that has left distributors in a precarious position [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The announcement of the "ban order" has created a sense of panic among distributors, who are now facing the risk of losing their long-established partnerships with Wahaha [3]. - Distributors are caught in a dilemma between maintaining their existing channels, which provide stable revenue, and the potential opportunities presented by Zong Fuli's new brand "Wah Xiaozong" [3][4]. Group 2: Distributor Perspectives - Some distributors express a willingness to pursue "Wah Xiaozong" if it promises higher profits, while others are wary due to past grievances with Zong Fuli's management style [4]. - The relationship between distributors and Wahaha has been strained, with some feeling that Zong Fuli's actions are pushing them towards a difficult choice [4]. Group 3: Internal Family Conflict - The situation has highlighted internal conflicts within the Wahaha family, particularly regarding the trademark disputes and brand competition between Zong Fuli and her uncle Zong Ze [6]. - Legal issues have emerged, including reports of Zong Fuli's associated accounts being frozen by a Hong Kong court, complicating the brand's operational landscape [6][7]. Group 4: Historical Context - The ongoing brand conflict is reminiscent of past cases of brand internal strife, which often lead to damage to the brand's reputation and customer loyalty [7]. - Industry experts warn that continued zero-sum competition could harm the overall market ecosystem, as both parties may overlook consumer needs and market changes [7]. Group 5: Market and Consumer Role - The resolution of this conflict should be left to market dynamics and legal adjudication, as consumer preferences will ultimately determine the success of the brands involved [8]. - The importance of consumer support is emphasized, as a brand's strength lies in its ability to meet consumer demands rather than merely relying on legal agreements [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Jining Rencheng People's Court is actively engaging with local businesses in the Jining Jizhou Grain Industry Park to address legal needs arising from port operations and smart logistics development [2] Group 1: Legal Needs and Risks - The court conducted on-site research to understand the judicial demands related to port operations and logistics [2] - Focus was placed on common legal risk points in cargo transportation and contract fulfillment [2] Group 2: Employee Rights and Legal Education - The court provided targeted legal education addressing labor contract signing and legal protections for employees [2] - The initiative aims to guide employees in protecting their rights and ensuring companies adhere to proper employment practices [2]

Core Insights - First Capital Financial experienced a significant stock price decline, with a drop of 4.93% on September 30 and a cumulative decline of 5.12% over two days, reaching the lowest intraday price since August 2025 [1] - The California Department of Justice opposed the bank's settlement proposal on September 23, citing insufficient compensation for affected customers, raising legal risk concerns among investors [1] - The company reached a settlement regarding a 401k lawsuit on September 25, but the specific potential financial liabilities remain undisclosed, leading to uncertainty about future financial burdens [1] - Recent reports of deposit issues and system failures have resulted in numerous customer service complaints, negatively impacting user experience and the company's reputation, which in turn affects investor confidence [1] Summary by Category Legal Risks - The California Department of Justice's opposition to the settlement proposal raises significant legal risk concerns for the company [1] - The ongoing legal disputes have led to investor apprehension regarding the company's ability to manage these risks effectively [2] Financial Concerns - The undisclosed potential financial liabilities from the 401k lawsuit settlement contribute to investor uncertainty about the company's future financial health [1] - Investors are advised to monitor the company's financial reports closely to gauge the impact of these liabilities [2] Customer Service Issues - Frequent reports of deposit delays and system failures have resulted in a surge of customer complaints, damaging the company's reputation [1] - The decline in customer satisfaction may lead to long-term impacts on investor confidence and market position [2]