流动性风险
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日度策略参考-20260109
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-09 05:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]
国债与企业债的风险差异体现在哪?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-01 09:16
国债的发行主体是国家(或其授权的财政部门),其信用基础依托于国家的综合经济实力、财政收支稳 定性与主权信用背书。企业债的发行主体为企业法人,信用基础则是发行企业的经营能力、财务健康状 况及市场竞争力。这一根本区别决定了两类债券在信用风险层面的核心差异,是其他风险差异的源头。 国债的本息偿付依赖于国家财政收入,包括税收收入、国有资产收益等稳定来源,偿付能力具有高度可 靠性。根据2025年修订的《中华人民共和国预算法》相关规定,国债发行需纳入财政预算管理,确保偿 债资金的合理安排与足额保障。企业债的本息偿付则依赖于发行企业的经营性现金流与利润,若企业出 现经营亏损、现金流断裂等情况,将无法按时足额偿付本息,这是企业债与国债在偿付风险上的关键区 别。 从市场实践来看,国债在全球主要经济体中均保持着极低的违约记录,我国国债自发行以来未发生过违 约事件。而企业债的违约风险与发行主体的信用状况直接相关,信用等级较低的企业债违约概率相对较 高,信用等级较高的企业债违约概率较低,但仍存在违约风险。这一客观事实反映了两类债券在违约风 险上的显著差异。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是专业的金融信息服务平台,专注于 ...
白银跳水,有大银行爆仓了?
华尔街见闻· 2025-12-29 07:48
在经历此前连续疯涨之后,现货白银周一早盘经历过山车行情,在大涨6%逼近84美元/盎司后直线走低,目前跌4%至76.15美元/盎司,日内最低曾跌至75美 元/盎司附近。 行情剧烈波动之际,社交平台X上流传的一则关于 "系统重要性银行"因白银期货空头头寸爆仓的传闻 引发市场广泛关注。 12月29日,社交平台X有用户转发一则报道称, 一家在白银期货市场持有重仓空头的大型银行未能在美国东部时间周日凌晨2点前支付追加保证金,并于凌晨2 点47分被期货交易所强制清算。 报道称,美联储被迫通过紧急隔夜回购机制向银行系统注入340亿美元,这是在周五注入170亿美元之外的额外资金。 传闻指出,涉事银行被描述为"贵金属衍生品市场最大的参与者之一",持有"数亿盎司的巨额白银空头头寸"。在该帖子的评论区里, 有人质疑报道的真实性, 认为"周六和周日市场都没有交易"。 还有人认为,如果报道属实,"影响可能通过一系列相互关联的衍生品迅速蔓延,但是目前尚未有银行倒闭的迹象"。 尽管传闻未披露具体银行名称,但市场猜测集中在少数几家欧洲大行身上。 分析人士对传闻真实性存在分歧,部分观点认为即便属实,相关银行的流动性储备 足以应对此类冲击,但也 ...
铅周报:流动性风险支撑,铅价震荡偏强-20251229
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 02:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the lead price of the main SHFE contract rebounded. The US economic data showed strong resilience, and the employment data was moderate, leading to a slight increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weak US dollar, which was beneficial to the lead price. The lead concentrate market had little trading, and the processing fee was weakly stable. The scrap battery recyclers' reluctance to sell increased, and the quotation was slightly raised. The primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, and the supply improved marginally. The secondary lead supply was still tight due to environmental protection and raw material shortages. The terminal consumption acceptance declined after the end of the new national standard transition period and stricter supervision, and the spot trading was weak. Overall, the warm macro - sentiment and tight domestic spot supported the lead price rebound, but the open lead ingot import window and the expected transfer of overseas high - inventory pressure restricted the rebound height. In the short term, the lead price was expected to remain oscillating strongly, but the risk of a pullback after the New Year's Day holiday should be vigilant [3][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Transaction Data - From December 19th to December 26th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,880 yuan/ton to 17,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 675 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,984.5 dollars/ton to 1,999.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 15 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio rose from 8.51 to 8.78, an increase of 0.27. The SHFE inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 9,725 tons to 248,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 1.79 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2602 rebounded strongly, closing at 17,555 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 4%. The LME lead continued to rebound, closing at 1,999.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of December 26th, the Jiangxi lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 17,300 - 17,330 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract. The spot market had few circulating supplies, and the transaction was sluggish. As of December 26th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,725 tons. The SHFE inventory was 27,095 tons, a decrease of 780 tons from last week. As of December 25th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from Monday and 0.26 million tons from last Thursday [5] Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat month - on - month. In November, the lead concentrate import volume was 109,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year increase of 15.78%. The silver concentrate import volume was 181,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.13% and a year - on - year increase of 26.51%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.04%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,675 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% [8] Related Charts - The content includes multiple charts showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, lead ingot premiums, price differences between primary and secondary lead, scrap battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][14]
央行年度重磅报告 披露三大领域压力测试结果
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 16:26
Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", which includes stress test results for banks, public funds, and open bank wealth management products [1][2]. Banking Sector Stress Testing - A total of 3,235 banks were tested for their resilience against various extreme but plausible adverse shocks, revealing strong overall resistance to macroeconomic impacts [2][3]. - The stress tests included macro solvency, liquidity risk, and contagion risk assessments, with credit risk identified as the primary factor affecting capital adequacy [3][4]. Capital Adequacy and Loan Quality - Under different stress scenarios, the overall capital adequacy ratio for participating banks dropped significantly, with a 400% increase in non-performing loans leading to a capital adequacy ratio of 10.54% [7]. - The overall non-performing loan ratio for the 23 participating banks was 1.22% at the end of 2024, projected to rise to 6.55% by the end of 2027 under a severe stress scenario [4][5]. Liquidity Risk Assessment - The liquidity risk stress test indicated that 98.49% of banks passed under light stress conditions, while 96.29% passed under heavy stress, showing an improvement from 2023 [8]. - The liquidity management capability of public funds was assessed, with only 0.01% of funds failing under light stress and 0.34% under heavy stress [9][10]. Non-Banking Sector Insights - The report also analyzed the liquidity risk of public funds and open bank wealth management products, with a total of 3,690 products tested, amounting to 11.79 trillion yuan [2][9]. - The liquidity risk for the tested wealth management products was deemed manageable, with only 171 products failing the test, representing 4.6% of the total [10].
银价狂飙!实探深圳水贝市场:银条、银锭成“爆款”
证券时报· 2025-12-26 15:26
" 真没想到银价都涨得这么猛! " 在深圳水贝从事银饰生意的钟老板指着报价大屏说, " 今 天银饰的克价已经冲到 22 元, 7 月的时候还不到 15 元。就这个月初,价格也只在 17 元 左右。 " | 更新日期: 2025-12-26 13:45 | | | 更多 > | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 今日价格 | 回收价格 | | | 黄金 | 1167 元/克 | 993 元/克 | | | 铝金 | 583元/克 | 522元/克 | | | 白银 | 22元/克 | 16.4元/克 | | 水贝市场的银饰销售柜台 吴家明/摄 对于许多中小投资者而言,银条和银锭不仅是避险资产,更是一种看得见、摸得着、门槛更 低的投资选择。在水贝一个银锭批发专柜,工作人员告诉记者,目前销量最好的是500克的银 锭,很多之前投资黄金的散户投资客,近期改为投资白银。除了银锭,投资银条也较为受 捧,近一个月水贝的白银供需量逐渐上涨,而且经常拿不到现货。 此外,记者从水贝的几家贵金属回收公司了解到,跟黄金投资相比,白银的买入价与回收价 价差幅度更大。不过,随着近期银价大涨,回收价格也出现较为明显 ...
纸白银处上涨轨道 2026年贵金属或迎来转折
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-24 05:59
齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深度解读。他认为,贵金属的商品属 性有望取代金融与货币属性,成为驱动价格的主导力量,白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成支撑,结合 海外宏观环境变化,投资者需重点关注流动性风险。 今日周三(12月24日)亚盘时段,纸白银目前交投于16.084一线上方,今日开盘于15.757元/克,截至发 稿,纸白银暂报16.269元/克,上涨3.22%,最高触及16.418元/克,最低下探15.755元/克,目前来看,纸 白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 关键转折点可能出现在2026年年中。刘旭峰分析,美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束,市场 预计"鸽派"色彩浓厚的凯文.哈塞特将接任,若其当选,那么美联储货币政策宽松节奏就可能加快。同 时,为应对经济下行压力与史上最长的政府"停摆"事件,美联储已重启扩表,但需警惕流动性边际收紧 的潜在风险。 日图来看,纸白银早盘价格延续上涨轨道,持续突破新高,目前已经来到16元关口,DMI显现有回落风 险,但整体上涨趋势强劲,纸白银走势下方关注15.0-15.50支撑,上方关注16.40-16. ...
现货白银延续创纪录涨势 首次站上72美元/盎司关口
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-24 04:58
新湖期货表示,我们预计白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上涨空间,但追高风险较大,建议投资者谨慎考 虑。 齐盛期货分析师认为,贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性,成为驱动价格的主导力量,白银供需缺口 的扩大或对价格形成支撑,结合海外宏观环境变化,投资者需重点关注流动性风险。 12月24日,现货白银延续创纪录涨势,首次站上72美元/盎司关口,日内涨幅至0.87%。 22日,全球最大的白银ETF——SLV(美国)单日流入533吨,仅次于2021年1月底散户逼仓时的情形,是历史 上第四大单日流入量。 打开APP,查看更多高清行情>> ...
贵金属的商品属性接棒驱动,转折点或出现在明年年中
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 00:23
来源:格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月24日|据期货日报,齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深度 解读。他认为,贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性,成为驱动价格的主导力量,白银供需缺口 的扩大或对价格形成支撑,结合海外宏观环境变化,投资者需重点关注流动性风险。关键转折点可能出 现在2026年年中。刘旭峰分析,美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束,市场预计"鸽派"色彩浓 厚的凯文·哈塞特将接任,若其当选,那么美联储货币政策宽松节奏就可能加快。同时,为应对经济下 行压力与史上最长的政府"停摆"事件,美联储已重启扩表,但需警惕流动性边际收紧的潜在风险。 (本 内容及观点仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) ...
2025期货业盘点|齐盛期货刘旭峰:商品属性接棒驱动,转折点或出现在明年年中
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-24 00:12
在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第七期中,齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵 金属市场走势进行了深度解读。他认为,贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性,成为驱动价格的 主导力量,白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成支撑,结合海外宏观环境变化,投资者需重点关注流动性 风险。 白银供应短缺或延续 刘旭峰表示,2021年—2025年,全球白银市场已连续5年处于供应短缺状态,缺口分别为2468吨、7762 吨、6240吨、4632吨和3659吨。短缺的主要矛盾源于需求端增长,尽管新冠疫情后全球经济增速放缓影 响了需求扩张,但供需矛盾并未完全解除。 展望2026年,刘旭峰认为,白银需求有望迎来结构性回暖。一方面,投资需求或随市场情绪改善而复 苏;另一方面,人工智能、AI及算力设备等新兴领域的快速发展,将带动连接器、触点等对白银及银 合金镀层的工业需求。此外,政策层面亦为白银基本面提供支撑。2025年11月7日,美国地质勘探局正 式将白银列入关键矿产清单,这一举措预计将进一步扩大2026年白银的供需缺口,强化其商品属性的定 价逻辑。 刘旭峰表示,美元信用体系的长期影响力呈现弱化趋势,全球央行持续的购金 ...