机构：中金公司 研究员：孙元祺/宋志达/李晓豪/张宇 盈利预测与估值 考虑减值压力，我们下调公司25 年/26 年盈利预测33%/30%至31.6 亿元/35.6 亿元，引入27 年预测41.2 亿元。当前股价交易于1.0/0.9 倍26/27 年市净率，维持跑赢行业评级，考虑业绩调整和经营端韧性，下 调目标价11%至19.1 港元/股，对应1.3/1.2倍26/27 年市净率，较当前股价有32%的上行空间。 风险 行业景气度修复不及预期，地产政策施力不及预期。 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025 年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历 史减值计提充分，有望于2025 年实现筑底企稳。最后，因2H25 地产景气度再度转为承压，我们判断公 司核心净利润或因增量存货减值计提有所下行，预计同比下降26%至31.6 亿元。 关注要点 销售有韧性，补库足、质量优，料2026 年延续稳健表现。我们估测公司2025 年全口径销售额同比-9% 至1228 亿元（Top30 同比-14%），百强排名稳定为第7 名，其中"灯塔战略"稳步落实，北京、厦门、上 海等项目已开盘且销售额居单城榜单前列；此外，北京、上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of creating high-quality products that can withstand market cycles, as articulated by Chen Feilong during the launch of the Jianfa·Haiyao project in Chengdu, which is part of its "Lighthouse Strategy" aimed at redefining high-end real estate offerings [1][3]. Group 1: Lighthouse Strategy - The "Lighthouse Strategy" aims to establish Jianfa as a century-old enterprise capable of enduring market fluctuations, focusing on high-end product strength and customer engagement [3]. - The strategy is built on four pillars: physical space, operations and services, community, and spiritual pursuit, which are essential for creating high-end products [1][3]. - Jianfa has implemented the "Lighthouse Strategy" in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Xiamen, ensuring that each project meets the highest standards and responds to valuable land [3]. Group 2: Customer Maintenance System - Jianfa has introduced a comprehensive customer maintenance system called "Eternal Companionship, Customer First," which integrates customer feedback throughout the entire product lifecycle, from land acquisition to service delivery [6][7]. - The company has conducted extensive customer research, collecting 21,200 customer feedback surveys and engaging in over 2,200 face-to-face interviews, demonstrating a commitment to understanding customer needs [6][7]. - The customer maintenance system aims to create a continuous value generation system that evolves based on customer feedback and integrates various operational capabilities from Jianfa Group [7]. Group 3: High-End Property Service System - Jianfa has launched the "Zhenxiang+" high-end property service system, which focuses on seven key aspects: safety, longevity, prestige, intelligence, livability, all-age inclusivity, and social interaction [10]. - The service system includes a long-term support mechanism and a specialized team configuration to ensure comprehensive service coverage [10]. - This system aims to meet customer expectations for a high-quality lifestyle and serves as a reference model for the advancement of high-end property services in the industry [10]. Group 4: Jianfa·Haiyao Project - Jianfa·Haiyao represents the first "Lighthouse" project in Chengdu, designed to harmonize human and natural relationships while adhering to new national standards for public community spaces [5][13]. - The project features a unique architectural design that emphasizes aesthetic experiences and community engagement, with a focus on creating a desirable living environment [13][15]. - Jianfa·Haiyao incorporates a "three-separation movement system" to enhance privacy and efficiency, addressing the diverse needs of high-net-worth residents [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2][61]. Core Insights - The company has entered the top ten in the industry, emphasizing its long-term value through the "Lighthouse Strategy," which focuses on excellent product quality and advanced living concepts [11]. - The company has shown resilience in sales, with a total sales amount of 70.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [7][28]. - The company maintains a healthy financial structure, with a net debt ratio of 33.4% and an average financing cost of 3.17% as of the first half of 2025 [7][51][54]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.98 billion yuan, 5.22 billion yuan, and 5.67 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 6.9, 6.6, and 6.1 respectively [7][58][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself among the top ten in the industry, supported by the strong backing of Xiamen State-owned Assets [11][14]. - The company’s main revenue source is real estate development, covering over 70 cities nationwide [16][19]. 2. Sales Performance - The company’s sales have shown resilience, with a total sales amount of 707 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 7.1% increase year-on-year [7][28]. - The average sales price increased to 26,500 yuan per square meter in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [7][29][31]. - The sales regions are concentrated in key eastern cities, contributing approximately 70% of total sales [36][37]. 3. Investment and Land Acquisition - The company’s land acquisition amount reached 49.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 17.9% increase year-on-year [7][38][40]. - The land reserve area increased to 12.71 million square meters, with a total value of 249.6 billion yuan [7][46][49]. 4. Financial Health - The company meets the "three red lines" requirements, with a pre-revenue asset-liability ratio of 58.9% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.9 times [7][51][52]. - The average financing cost has decreased from 4.69% in 2021 to 3.17% in the first half of 2025 [54][56]. 5. Profitability Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 141.85 billion yuan, 130.36 billion yuan, and 126.37 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -0.8%, -8.1%, and -3.1% [57][58]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 14.0%, 14.5%, and 15.0% for the same period [57][58].

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a deep adjustment phase, prompting developers to accelerate the recruitment of experienced marketing management talent [1][10] - Yan Yong, former Chief Marketing Officer of Vanke, has joined Jianfa Real Estate Group as a reserve general manager for the Shanghai company, indicating a strategic move to enhance marketing capabilities during challenging market conditions [1][10] Company Developments - Yan Yong's departure from Vanke occurred after a brief tenure as CMO, during which Vanke faced declining sales performance [1] - Jianfa's "Lighthouse Strategy" is entering a critical phase, with projects in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu requiring urgent marketing talent to navigate market challenges [2][10] - Jianfa's key projects, including Jianfa Haicheng in Shanghai, are under pressure to perform amid a cooling market, with sales strategies being adjusted accordingly [4][5] Market Conditions - The real estate market has seen a decline in activity, with fewer projects achieving rapid sales compared to previous months [8][9] - Developers are facing increased pressure as high-priced "land king" projects struggle with slower sales and market adjustments [7][10] - The expectation for market recovery is being set for 2026, with developers hoping for a resurgence in demand during the spring months [9][10] Strategic Implications - The recruitment of Yan Yong is seen as a strategic move to leverage his extensive marketing experience to address the challenges of high-priced project sales [10] - Jianfa's focus on product presentation and marketing efficiency is critical for the success of its "Lighthouse Strategy" amid current market conditions [5][10] - The company aims to create a differentiated competitive edge through deep collaboration between product development and marketing efforts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "Lighthouse Strategy" by Jianfa Real Estate, aimed at innovating and enhancing product offerings to meet the evolving demands of the real estate market, emphasizing quality, cultural heritage, and advanced living concepts [3][5]. Group 1: Lighthouse Strategy Implementation - Jianfa Real Estate is entering a critical phase of "value deepening" in the real estate industry, introducing the "Lighthouse Strategy" which focuses on sincerity, aesthetics, and value [3]. - The strategy involves a comprehensive product innovation that breaks away from past experiences, establishing high product standards and continuously upgrading the overall product system [3][5]. - The "Lighthouse projects" are characterized by four core features: leading spirit, customer-centricity, cultural heritage, and exquisite craftsmanship, with five pathways for implementation [5]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sales - The Jianfa·Haicheng project in Shanghai launched on September 30, 2025, with a remarkable subscription rate of 128%, becoming a market highlight and achieving top sales figures in Shanghai [5][7]. - Other Lighthouse projects, such as Jianfa Port·Chengqi Ruihu in Xiamen and Jianfa·Haiyan in Beijing, also demonstrated strong sales performance, with significant sales figures and high market recognition [7][13]. - The company plans to continue launching subsequent batches of projects in the fourth quarter following the successful initial sales [5]. Group 3: Land Bank and Financial Health - As of June 30, 2025, Jianfa International reported a total land bank of 12.71 million square meters, with a total land bank value of approximately 249.6 billion yuan, focusing on core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xiamen [15]. - Over 81% of the land bank was acquired in 2022 or later, indicating a clear trend towards future growth [15]. - Financial indicators remain robust, with an average financing cost of 3.17% and a net debt ratio of 33.4%, positioning the company favorably for future land acquisitions [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the concentrated market entry of Lighthouse projects in the second half of the year will drive sales growth, supported by a solid financial foundation for a billion-yuan land acquisition plan [19]. - The focus will remain on core cities with stable market capacities, ensuring a strategic approach to land acquisition and project development [18][19].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is transitioning from a phase of scale expansion to a focus on value cultivation, with the "Lighthouse Strategy" being central to this shift [1][3] - The "Lighthouse Project" in Beijing, known as Jianfa Haiyan, has received the "Platinum Certification" for residential health performance, marking a significant achievement for the company [1][2] Group 1: Value Reconstruction in Real Estate - The essence of value reconstruction in the real estate sector is a return to the fundamental nature of living environments, emphasizing sincerity and aesthetic value as core principles [1] - The "Lighthouse Strategy" aims to elevate buildings from mere living containers to spaces that embody life dreams, aligning with market demands for aesthetic experience and cultural identity [1][2] Group 2: Technological and Philosophical Innovations - Jianfa Haiyan integrates technological innovation with Eastern living philosophy, creating a multi-dimensional sound environment control system that enhances living quality [2] - The project employs advanced soundproofing technologies, such as specialized windows and thickened walls, to significantly improve noise isolation, reflecting a systematic approach to the "Silence Philosophy" [2] Group 3: Localized Innovation and Industry Impact - Jianfa's localized innovations are expressed through various projects across China, each reflecting unique cultural and technological elements tailored to their respective cities [3] - The company's refusal to replicate models and its focus on local cultural and residential needs not only enrich individual projects but also signal a broader industry shift towards value-driven development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the dual focus of real estate companies on effective marketing and emotional connection with homeowners during the September market, characterized by promotional activities and community engagement [2][3]. Group 2 - In September, real estate companies launched various initiatives, including promotional offers such as home decoration and appliance subsidies from Poly Developments, exclusive home purchase discounts for teachers from China Overseas Property, and live-streamed promotions from Yuexiu Property [2]. - The article highlights the strategic release of new luxury products by companies like Yuexiu and Poly, as well as the innovative "Lighthouse Strategy" by Jianfa Real Estate, aiming to capture attention through product and cultural innovation [3]. - The brand communication power ranking for September shows that Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments topped the list, with leading companies leveraging both marketing discounts and homeowner engagement to strengthen brand loyalty [3]. Group 3 - The article notes that the 2026 campus recruitment season has started early, with state-owned enterprises like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou leading the way in attracting talent through innovative formats such as open days and micro-films [3].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is entering a "value cultivation" era, with Jianfa Real Estate leading the way by launching the "Lighthouse Strategy," which emphasizes innovation in products and models, focusing on "sincerity" and "beauty" to reignite people's aspirations for a better life and elevate industry value [1][2]. Group 1: Lighthouse Strategy Overview - Jianfa Real Estate's "Lighthouse Strategy" is centered around the belief that "love equals sincerity, and aesthetics equals value," aiming to create "Lighthouse Works" that resonate with people's hearts through sincerity and define value through aesthetics [2][3]. - The strategy aims to elevate buildings from mere living spaces to spiritual domains that embody life dreams and timeless values, with four core characteristics: leading spirit, customer-centricity, cultural heritage, and exquisite craftsmanship [3][4]. Group 2: Implementation Paths - The implementation of the "Lighthouse Strategy" involves five core paths, including strategic height anchoring, high-level resource aggregation, cutting-edge design concepts, selected materials and craftsmanship, and a new product series [4][6][10]. - The strategic height anchoring ensures that top decision-makers are involved in all processes from land assessment to product development, ensuring resource allocation and high standards [4]. - High-level resource aggregation focuses on prime urban locations, long-term residential value, and collaboration with elite teams and global design experts to infuse cultural, aesthetic, and technical value [4][6]. Group 3: Product Innovations - The "Lighthouse Works" feature cutting-edge design concepts that respect urban context and incorporate forward-thinking elements such as intelligence and sustainability, exemplified by projects like Beijing Jianfa·Haiyan [6][8]. - Selected materials and craftsmanship emphasize the use of rare materials and innovative techniques, as seen in Xiamen Jianfa Port·Chenqi Ruihu, which integrates local cultural characteristics [8][10]. - The new product series represents a self-transformation for Jianfa Real Estate, breaking away from past experiences to reshape the entire product system, as demonstrated by Shanghai Jianfa·Haicheng [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Jianfa Real Estate's "Lighthouse" projects are not isolated but part of an innovative and evolving strategic system, with notable projects like Xiamen Jianfa Port·Chenqi Ruihu, Beijing Jianfa·Haiyan, and Shanghai Jianfa·Haicheng gaining market attention [12]. - Future plans include the launch of more benchmark projects across the country, guided by the "Lighthouse Spirit," to consistently deliver exceptional living values and respond to societal expectations [12].

Core Concept - The article emphasizes the "Lighthouse Spirit" as a guiding principle for the real estate industry, particularly through the introduction of the "Lighthouse Strategy" by Jianfa Real Estate, which aims to enhance product quality and redefine development models while inspiring a love for a better life [1][2]. Group 1: Lighthouse Core - Jianfa Real Estate's core belief is centered around "sincerity and beauty," which reflects the company's commitment to creating a better life for people [2]. - The "Lighthouse Works" are designed to set industry standards by combining emotional appeal with aesthetic value, aiming to create warm and timeless architecture [2]. Group 2: Lighthouse Characteristics - Jianfa Real Estate has defined four core characteristics of "Lighthouse Works" to elevate living spaces into realms that embody life dreams and timeless values: 1. Leading Spirit: Establishing a high-end product series that drives innovation in the housing sector [3]. 2. Customer-Centric: Customizing non-standard works that enhance the living experience through health, intelligence, and convenience [3]. 3. Cultural Heritage: Integrating new Chinese cultural concepts and local cultural elements into modern design [3]. 4. Exquisite Craftsmanship: Utilizing green, safe, and energy-efficient materials while introducing new technologies and techniques [4]. Group 3: Lighthouse Pathways - Jianfa Real Estate employs five core pathways to implement the "Lighthouse Strategy": 1. Strategic Height: Involvement of top decision-makers in all phases of project development to ensure resource allocation and high standards [5]. 2. High-Level Resource Gathering: Focusing on scarce urban locations and long-term residential value while collaborating with elite teams and experts [5]. 3. Cutting-Edge Design Concepts: Creating products that respect urban context and incorporate forward-thinking elements like intelligence and sustainability [8]. 4. Selected Materials and Craftsmanship: Using rare materials and advanced techniques to enhance the uniqueness of each project [10]. 5. New Product Series: A comprehensive transformation of the product system, exemplified by innovative projects like Shanghai Jianfa·Haicheng [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Jianfa Real Estate's "Lighthouse" projects are not isolated but part of an evolving strategic system, with notable projects like Beijing Jianfa·Haiyan and Xiamen Jianfa Port·Chenqi Ruihu already launched, and more projects in cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu on the way [14]. - The company aims to continuously create benchmark projects across the nation, guided by the "Lighthouse Spirit" and its core values of "sincerity" and "beauty" [14].

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic expansion of Jianfa International in the real estate market, focusing on high-end projects known as "lighthouse" projects, which cater to the needs of high-net-worth individuals [1][5][8] Group 1: Project Development and Sales Performance - Jianfa International's "Jianfa Haichen" project in Shanghai is set to launch its first batch of products by the end of September 2025, as part of its five lighthouse projects across major cities [1] - The "Jianfa Haiyan" project in Beijing has achieved over 90% sales in its initial launch, ranking as a top performer in the Beijing luxury housing market [1] - In the first half of 2025, Jianfa International reported a total contract sales amount of 707 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a target of 1,500 billion yuan for the full year, representing a 12% growth [3][6] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Despite a general decline in the real estate market, Jianfa International aims to increase its market share by focusing on high-quality land acquisitions in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, where it has secured 67% of its land value in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The company has added 26 new land parcels with a total value of 987 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 33% increase year-on-year [4] Group 3: Financial Health and Risk Management - Jianfa International's financial metrics show improvement, with a net profit of 15.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 4.7% from the previous year, and a gross profit margin of 12.89% [6] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 58.9%, with a net liability ratio of 33.4%, indicating a strong financial position that supports its expansion strategy [6] Group 4: Product Innovation and Market Adaptation - The "lighthouse" strategy is a response to market demands for high-quality housing, emphasizing unique locations and superior product offerings to attract high-net-worth buyers [5][7] - Jianfa International is adapting its product offerings to local market conditions, with projects designed to reflect regional cultural elements while maintaining high standards of quality [7]