证券研究报告 焦煤供应下降，看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2026年1月11日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月9日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨6.26%，沪深300指数上涨2.79%，跑赢沪深300指数3.47个百分点。全板块整周36只股价上涨，0 只下跌，1只持平。江钨装备涨幅最高，整周涨幅为19.21%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月2日-2026年1月8日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为705万吨，周环比增加17.1%，年同比减少0.4%。其中，动力煤周日均 销量较上周增加20.9%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少5.1%，无烟煤销量较上周增加18.5%。截至2026年1月8日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为705万吨，周环比增加20.8%，年同比减少 3.4%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2348万吨，周环比持平，年同比减少11%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量5518万吨，同比 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 重要信息回顾： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 持续降温提振日耗，叠加年底安监 趋严，预计煤价上涨 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.28-2026.1.4） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、 Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 505、593、682 元/吨，环比+18、+14、+6 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the methanol industry is a narrow - range fluctuation [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central price of methanol is expected to be slightly higher than that in Q4 2025 but not reach the level of H1 2025, showing seasonal fluctuations. One can focus on the low - buying opportunities in the 03 and 05 contracts [2] - In 2025, the methanol industry had significant differentiation in various aspects. In 2026, the supply is affected by overseas factors, the cost is supported by coal price increase, the demand growth may slow down, and the inventory will show seasonal fluctuations [103][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (2024.12 - 2025.12) - In Dec 2024, methanol prices rose from 2,500 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton due to Iranian methanol plant shutdowns and reduced imports [6] - From Jan - Feb 2025, downstream MTO profit was eroded, ports started to accumulate inventory, and port prices declined while inland prices rose [6] - In Mar 2025, the arbitrage window closed, and the market oscillated due to the restart of plants [6] - In Apr 2025, methanol prices dropped significantly due to the Sino - US tariff war and expected overseas supply recovery [6] - From May - Dec 2025, prices were affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, geopolitical conflicts, plant maintenance, and inventory changes [7][8] 2. Supply Side 2.1 Capacity - China's methanol production capacity accounts for 58% of the global total, approaching 103 million tons/year in 2025. The new production capacity in 2025 is 8.2 million tons/year, and the national production capacity will reach 108 million tons/year with a 4.8% year - on - year increase [10][11] - In 2026, the new production capacity is expected to be 8.93 million tons/year, with a growth rate of about 5%. The future 5 - year capacity growth rate is expected to decline [11] 2.2 Domestic Production and Operating Rate - As of early December 2025, the domestic methanol production was 95.3 million tons, and the annual production is expected to reach 100 million tons, a nearly 10% year - on - year increase [19] - The operating rate is expected to be close to 90% in 2025, showing a significant upward trend for two consecutive years [22] 2.3 Overseas Production - Overseas methanol capacity growth rate is greater than demand growth rate, and it is in a state of relative over - supply. In 2025, the overseas capacity is about 77.75 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 4.5%, and it is expected to be 4.2% in 2026 [25] - In the next 3 years, there will be about 6.75 million tons/year of new overseas production capacity [25] 2.4 Imports - Iranian methanol (including Iran, Oman, and the UAE) accounts for about 50% of China's methanol imports, significantly affecting China's imports. In 2025, imports were affected by the Iran - Israel conflict, with a decline in June - July and a new high after August [30][31] - Non - Iranian imports increased in the second half of 2025, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the Americas. In the next 2 - 3 years, China's imports are expected to continue growing [31][32] 3. Cost Side 3.1 Coal in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, coal prices declined due to strong supply and weak demand, with inventory accumulation. In the second half, prices rebounded due to supply tightening and demand improvement [36][40] 3.2 Coal Outlook in 2026 - Supply growth is under pressure due to limited capacity increment, strict policy control, complex mining conditions, and limited import growth [48][50] - Demand has growth potential, with electricity demand remaining stable and non - electricity demand expected to improve [50] - Coal prices are expected to have a steadily rising central price and fluctuate within a range [50] 4. Demand Side 4.1 MTO - In 2025, three integrated MTO plants were put into operation. The MTO industry's profit first decreased and then increased, with the operating rate fluctuating between 80% - 90% and an 18% year - on - year increase in production [52][57] - In 2026, multiple MTO plants are planned to be put into operation, bringing new demand for methanol. However, due to over - capacity in the polyolefin industry, MTO's profit will be under pressure [62][65] 4.2 Traditional Downstream - In 2025, traditional downstream industries showed a "differentiated operation and profit - pressured" pattern. MTBE performed best, while acetic acid's growth slowed, formaldehyde's profit was thin, and dimethyl ether shrank [69][71] - In 2026, new capacity will continue to be put into operation, but profit and operating rate will be under pressure, and the demand for methanol will have limited elasticity [84][86] 5. Profit Side - In 2025, the profitability of coal - based methanol was high in the first half and declined in the second half. Gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol had weak profitability throughout the year [87] - In 2026, the cost side may strengthen, and the methanol industry's profit will be restricted by downstream demand, import pressure, and high inventory [93][95] 6. Inventory Side - In 2025, inland methanol inventory was at a relatively low level, while port inventory was at a historical high, first decreasing and then increasing [96] - In 2026, inventory is expected to first decrease and then increase, with the port inventory change mainly driven by overseas supply fluctuations. Inland inventory is expected to remain low [101][102]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal market is currently facing weak demand and high inventory levels, leading to downward pressure on port coal prices. However, there is potential for prices to stabilize and gradually rise in the future due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and growth potential, as well as those that can benefit from improving coal prices [8][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 186.15 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 182.56 billion yuan [2]. 2. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Recent weather conditions have suppressed coal demand, with average daily coal consumption in 25 provinces at 5.92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.48% [8]. - Coal imports have decreased significantly, with November 2025 imports at 44.05 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous year [8]. - Port coal inventories have risen, with the total at 29.08 million tons as of December 12, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.07% [8]. 3. Price Trends - The price of power coal at the Jing Tang Port has decreased by 40 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a current price of 750 yuan/ton [8]. - The report notes that the price of coking coal remains stable, with no significant changes observed [8]. 4. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their operational performance, with varying production and sales figures reported for recent quarters [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring dividend policies and growth prospects for these companies, as they are expected to play a crucial role in the investment landscape [12][14]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy, as well as those with significant growth potential like Yancoal and Huayang Co. [8][12]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in coal prices, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints, making it a favorable time to invest in the coal sector [8][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that coal prices in Shaanxi province have experienced slight fluctuations, with an overall decrease in prices during mid-November due to lower-than-expected heating demand [1] Group 2 - From November 15 to 21, the average coal price in Shaanxi was 1226.0 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% [1] - Coking coal was priced at 1426.7 yuan per ton, down 1.5% week-on-week, while thermal coal increased to 711.4 yuan per ton, up 1.1% week-on-week [1] - Anthracite coal was priced at 1540.0 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [1] - The higher-than-average temperatures in Shaanxi during mid-November contributed to lower heating demand, leading to the slight decline in coal prices [1] - It is anticipated that coal prices in Shaanxi may rise as the peak winter coal demand approaches [1]

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 回顾过去十年的煤炭行情，不难发现煤炭价格波动总是围绕持续增长的消费和阶段性供给错配之间的矛盾而展开的，其中政策变化 起到了关键作用。2025 年上半年煤炭价格大幅下跌，直至反内卷政策和超产核查出台，煤炭产量受到控制，同时伴随价格回落， 进口量大幅缩减，煤炭供需矛盾有所缓解，煤炭价格才得以重新反弹...... 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 本期分析研究员 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 从业资格号:F3054449 投资咨询号:Z0016137 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 邢亚文 期货研究报告 | 动力煤年报 2025-11-30 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 策略 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for coal in China, driven by economic stimulus and seasonal factors, leading to a surge in coal prices and competition among suppliers, particularly between Russian and Mongolian coal producers [1][3][5] - In September 2025, China's coal imports reached 46 million tons, with Russia exporting approximately 65 million tons of coal to China in the first nine months, indicating a strong and sustained demand [3][5] - The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal rose to $86.3 per ton, while premium PLV coking coal reached $193 per ton, reflecting a significant increase in coal prices within a short period [3][5] Group 2 - Weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and temperature drops in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, have led to increased heating demands, further pushing up coal prices due to a dual demand effect [5][9] - Mongolian metallurgical coal is priced about 30% lower than Russian coal, creating competitive pressure as Indonesia and Australia also increase their coal imports, leading to a multi-directional market competition [7][15] - Russian suppliers are adapting by implementing flexible pricing, adjusting supply plans, and negotiating long-term partnerships with Chinese companies to enhance their market position [7][11] Group 3 - Port inventories and shipping costs pose challenges, with Qinhuangdao port inventory down over 20% year-on-year, but overall port inventory still faces structural issues [9][13] - There is a trend of Russian coal previously destined for South Korea being redirected to China, optimizing logistics and increasing profit margins [13][19] - The competition is intensifying around quality differentiation, with high-quality coking coal being more sought after than thermal coal, making it crucial for suppliers to maintain stable quality and service [15][17] Group 4 - Experts predict that coal prices will experience moderate increases rather than extreme spikes before the end of 2025, due to limited total consumption in China and the balancing effect of port inventories [17] - Some buyers are beginning to establish long-term partnerships with Russian suppliers, transitioning from one-time transactions to supply chain collaborations, which benefits both parties if executed effectively [19]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jin Control Coal Industry Industry Overview - The company operates in the coal mining industry, specifically focusing on coal production and related activities. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Stability**: Despite the State Development and Reform Commission's supply guarantee and the Energy Bureau's overproduction policies, the company's production progress remains stable, with an average monthly output of approximately 3 million tons since October [2][3][3]. 2. **Panjiayao Tungsten Mine Progress**: The integration of the Panjiayao Tungsten Mine into the listed company is progressing smoothly, with expectations to complete the necessary procedures by the end of the year [2][4][4]. 3. **Tax Payments for Siliang Mine**: The Siliang Mine has already paid over 10 million yuan in taxes, with an outstanding tax payment of over 100 million yuan expected to be completed by year-end [2][5][5]. 4. **Copper-Zinc Mine Recovery**: The copper-zinc mine has partially resumed normal production since October, leading to improved profitability and a narrowing decline in annual investment returns [2][6][6]. 5. **Coal Price Trends**: The average coal price from January to September was 423 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%. Since October, coal prices have not shown significant improvement, with expectations of fluctuating between 750 to 800 yuan per ton due to weak demand and market sentiment [2][7][9]. 6. **Coal Prices in October**: In October, the price for Tashan coal was around 510-520 yuan per ton, while Siliang coal was slightly above 200 yuan per ton. Tashan's costs remained stable, while Siliang's costs increased slightly due to maintenance [2][8][8]. 7. **Inventory Levels**: The company is currently in a replenishment phase due to previously low inventory levels caused by rapid price increases [2][10][10]. 8. **Long-term Coal Contracts**: The proportion of long-term contracts for thermal coal remains around 40%, with no significant issues in contract fulfillment. The Tashan mine has direct transportation to nearby power plants, while Siliang has resumed normal contract fulfillment after renegotiation [2][11][11]. 9. **Sales Volume Decline**: The decline in Tashan's sales volume from January to September was primarily due to an increase in calorific value from 5,000 to 5,500 kcal, which reduced the yield during washing. This strategy, while ensuring sales, has increased costs and may impact future sales depending on market demand [2][11][11]. Additional Important Information - The company is closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly, particularly in response to seasonal demand fluctuations expected in winter [2][9][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The significant drop in coking coal futures, with a cumulative decline of 8.16%, is primarily attributed to increased supply expectations. However, ongoing safety regulations continue to create a tight supply situation, limiting the extent of price corrections. It is recommended to focus on high-risk, low-position opportunities [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 5.79%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.02 percentage points, ranking 21st out of 32 industries. The price of thermal coal remained stable at 834 RMB/ton, while the main coking coal price decreased by 80 RMB/ton to 1780 RMB/ton [6][21] Summary by Sections Coking Coal Market Analysis - The coking coal market is experiencing a weak and stable price trend. The main reasons for the price drop include increased supply expectations from Mongolia and reduced demand from steel mills due to declining profitability [7][23] - The supply situation remains tight due to low inventory levels at mines and ports, providing strong support for prices despite short-term downward pressure [6][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing the coal sector's bottom reversal trend. Stock selection should follow three strategies: balanced attack and defense, elastic offense, and stable leaders [8] - Specific companies recommended include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8][32] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with various indices showing declines. The coking coal index fell by 8.71%, and the coal refining index dropped by 13.50% [21][25] - The report highlights the need to monitor downstream demand and inventory levels closely, as these factors will influence future price movements [22][40]

俄须密切监测市场动态 "NEFT调查"公司合伙人科托夫认为，动力煤价格年底前将保持温和上涨态势："季节性需求将支撑价格 走势，但中国消费总量仍有限，因此价格涨幅不会很大。"炼焦煤尚未出现持续涨价的情况，但局部地 区缺煤可能引发短期价格波动，短暂影响俄罗斯公司收益。 俄罗斯"能源与金融研究所"基金会专家季托夫说，中国市场形势改善，让部分俄罗斯煤炭从进口量下降 的韩国转向中国。这有助于俄罗斯出口商优化物流并扩大利润，但需要精准协调供货，密切监测市场动 态。 根据大宗商品咨询机构BigMint的数据，中国9月煤炭进口量较8月增长7.64%，至4600万吨，创今年单月 新高，增长主要来自印尼、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和蒙古。 来源：环球时报 【环球时报综合报道】在中国经济回暖与冬季临近的背景下，俄罗斯煤炭市场呈现稳步增长态势。俄罗 斯企业动力煤和冶金煤价格一周内上涨数个百分点，但同时俄煤企也面临来自其他国家供应商的激烈竞 争。 中国煤炭市场至关重要 中国煤炭市场形势能反映全球能源和冶金行业趋势。中国对俄罗斯煤炭的需求变化与季节相关。对俄罗 斯企业而言，中国煤炭市场的机遇与挑战并存：俄企既有增加收入、巩固出口地位的机会，又必须 ...