Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices in the first half of 2025 due to changes in supply-demand dynamics, policy adjustments, and international market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, coal prices reached a five-year low, with thermal coal prices hitting new lows and coking coal and coke prices at an eight-year low due to an oversupply situation [2] - The price fluctuations in the first half of the year showed a pattern of initial increase followed by a decline, with prices touching a low in March and April before rebounding in May due to rising demand from thermal power generation [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand imbalance in the coal market has not changed significantly, with domestic production capacity being limited and high levels of imported coal maintaining a relatively loose supply [4] - The demand from the electricity sector is expected to increase seasonally during the summer, but the growth will be constrained by the rise of renewable energy sources, leading to overall weak demand in non-electric sectors [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be a rebound in coal prices during the summer peak demand period, the overall price center is likely to shift downward due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [5] - The coal market will continue to face pressures from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with potential challenges from domestic capacity releases and ongoing imports [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Insights - Port inventory is being reduced, and coal prices may be nearing the bottom. Some production areas have seen an increase in coal prices, but without a significant reduction in inventory, a price turning point is unlikely [10][11] - Coking coal prices continue to decline, and total inventory in the coking steel sector is decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a weak trend for coking coal prices [24][25] - The equity market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the index. Recent geopolitical events have heightened risk aversion, impacting market sentiment [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market experienced mixed results, with the coal sector slightly underperforming the indices. The average market turnover was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing fluctuating around 100 billion yuan [6][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, closing at 3377 points, while the CSI 300 Index also fell by 0.25%, closing at 3864.18 points. The coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.50%, closing at 2565.75 points [6][10] Thermal Coal - Port inventory is being reduced, with northern ports seeing a decrease in coal inventory to below 29 million tons. Daily average coal consumption at southern power plants increased to 1.804 million tons, up 4.6% week-on-week [10][16] - The price of thermal coal has shown mixed fluctuations, with some production areas experiencing price increases. However, the overall market is expected to face pressure due to weak demand [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continue to decline, with the average price for various types of coking coal dropping significantly. The market is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is at 85.8%, with a slight decrease week-on-week. The overall supply remains relatively sufficient [24][27] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has increased, with an average of 75 vessels per day. Shipping prices have also decreased, reflecting a broader trend in the coal transportation market [32][33] Industry News - The U.S. government has approved plans for coal mining companies to expand operations to boost exports to Asia. This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with overseas allies [35] - Shanxi Province aims to increase coalbed methane reserves by 20% year-on-year by the end of 2025, highlighting efforts to optimize resource utilization [35][36]