News Summary Core Viewpoint - The glass processing industry is experiencing a decline in orders and production, leading to increased inventory pressure and a weak demand outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of November 17, the average order days for glass processing sample enterprises is 9.9 days, a decrease of 8.9% month-on-month and 24.2% year-on-year [1]. - On November 18, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 456 glass futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 7 from the previous trading day [1]. - In November, four coal-fired production lines were shut down, while one previously operating line resumed production, resulting in a decline in weekly operating rates and supply [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the glass market continues to decline, with high inventory pressure in the midstream sector leading to a negative feedback loop and ongoing price drops [2]. - New Century Futures reports that recent spot prices are weak, with some manufacturers starting to lower prices. The ongoing decline in real estate completions is dragging down demand, and inventory levels are continuously increasing [3]. - According to New Century Futures, the daily melting capacity of glass needs to be reduced to approximately 154,000 tons by the end of the year to address the oversupply issue in the industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures prices have significantly declined, with the main contract dropping nearly 4%, reaching a four-month low, primarily due to weak demand from the real estate sector [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since October, glass production companies have been accumulating inventory, with sales improving slightly in the last week of October, but overall inventory levels remain historically high [1][2]. - The real estate sector's completion area has decreased, leading to a decline in glass demand during what is typically a peak season, with a reported 15.3% year-on-year drop in completed housing area from January to September 2025 [1][2]. - The average order duration for glass deep processing enterprises has fallen to 9-10 days, significantly lower than the 12-13 days seen in the same period last year [1]. Price Trends - Post-National Day holiday, average spot prices for glass have dropped by nearly 100 yuan per ton, with specific regional declines: 120 yuan in North China, 80 yuan in Central China, and 90 yuan in East China [1]. - Current average profit for float glass enterprises is reported at -32 yuan per ton, marking a continuous decline over four weeks, indicating a low valuation level [2]. Market Outlook - Future glass price trends will largely depend on the balance between supply and demand, with potential for inventory accumulation if supply remains stable or decreases only slightly [3]. - The industry faces a supply surplus, and short-term improvements are unlikely, suggesting that upstream companies should consider selling hedging opportunities [3]. - The ongoing transition to gas from coal in some production lines has slightly alleviated supply pressure, with a reported decrease in production by 2,400 tons to 159,135 tons [2].

11月5日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，玻璃期货盘中低位震荡运行，主力合约报收于1097.00元/ 吨，小幅走低0.54%。 库存方面，据新湖期货介绍，上周厂库库存环比去化（-82.3万重量箱），分区域看：华北去库最多， 华东次之，其中华南地区有小幅累库。 对于后市走势，中财期货表示，市场政策面形成支撑，但供需基本面尚未改变，市场仍是中游低价货源 成交为主，工厂出货偏弱，预计短期内价格趋势震荡运行。 供应方面，兴业期货指出，沙河玻璃产线技改政策落地，合计影响4条产线共计2750吨日熔量。且政策 要求产线先停后点，年内点火概率较低。叠加行业持续亏损，11月后华东、湖北、华南等地产线冷修计 划也明显增多。 需求方面，混沌天成期货分析称，根据房地产建设周期计算，当前房地产竣工仍处于下行周期，新房玻 璃需求仍在持续下滑，而二手房成交较好，汽车、家电、电子产品产量仍在增加，对玻璃需求有一定支 撑，预期今年玻璃整体供给和需求都下降7%左右，供需基本平衡。但新房销售持续下降，房企资金紧 张，部分项目持续推迟，新房玻璃需求超预期下降，玻璃供给和库存压力较大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract FG2509 increased by 0.69% compared to the previous week, reaching 1026 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1080 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from the previous week [2][8][14]. - The glass industry is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is at a historical low, while demand is in the off - season. The inventory of glass enterprises remains at a high level compared to the same period, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract rose from 1019 yuan/ton to 1026 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%. The spot benchmark price increased from 1056 yuan/ton to 1080 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The main basis rose from 37 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 45.95% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1080 yuan/ton, a 2.27% increase from the previous week [14]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - No specific content about cost and profit is provided in the report. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 224, with an operating rate of 75.00%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity was 156,800 tons, also at the lowest level in the same period of history [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468080 tons. Other aspects of demand - related information such as housing sales, new construction, and downstream factory orders are mentioned in the report, but no specific data analysis is provided [30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 69.085 million weight boxes, a 0.19% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, and the difference between supply and demand. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 billion tons, the consumption was 53.1 billion tons, and the difference was 1.51 billion tons [46].

国内玻璃现货价格平稳，近日来部分区域成交量有所回升，沙河地区部分企业产销率阶段性突破至 200%以上，华东、华中、华南等地区也接近供需平衡，生产企业库存或存缓慢下降。 综合来看，虽玻璃现货价格已跌破市场绝大多数企业生产线成本，但玻璃需求也在同步下行，故总体供 需格局仍偏宽松，若盘面进行贴水修复，则部分低成本企业在现货经营压力增加的背景下或再度考虑套 保。因此，在价格大幅低于生产成本时，期货盘面虽然存在一定的反弹需求，但从当下时点来看，若无 外力干预刺激，则反弹的持续驱动力偏弱。(作者单位：齐盛期货） 从需求端来看，因订单无有效回暖，近期下游加工企业心态仍偏悲观，且在行业利润微薄的情况下暂无 大量囤货的想法，采购策略上保持按需低价采购，多数下游深加工企业的开工率与往年同期相比偏低。 库存结构方面，近期因玻璃现货价格连续下跌，部分现货价格已跌破企业生产成本，当前中游库存已多 数去化，因此中游存在低价备货意向，但备货行情的持续性不宜过度乐观。 从供应端来看，数据显示，当前全国浮法玻璃生产线共计285条，在产220条；日熔量共计157255吨，较 上期减少1800吨；当前行业产能利用率为80.63%，位于近五年同期偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The main logic is that the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the seasonal peak season expectation, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased restocking, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate strongly at a low level [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract FG2509 last week was 976 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week. The main basis was 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.94% from the previous week [2][9] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass大板 in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week [16] Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - The profit of coal production lines has recovered, the loss of natural gas production lines has intensified, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [23] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - There were 224 float glass production lines in operation nationwide last week, with an operating rate of 75.57% and a daily melting volume of 155,700 tons. The supply is at a historical low [3] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original inventory [3][7][34] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - As of June 12, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 69.685 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [49] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the production, consumption, net import, and other data of float glass each year, as well as the growth rate of production and consumption and the proportion of net imports [50] Influence Factor Summary - **Lido**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continued to decline to a historical low [6] - **Negative**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original inventory [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract FG2509 increased by 1.53% to 997 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass decreased by 0.75% to 1060 yuan/ton. The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - The main logic is that the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the seasonal peak season expectation, the spot price has risen, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in the reduction of the glass factory's inventory. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate strongly at a low level [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 997 yuan/ton, up 1.53% from the previous week; the spot benchmark price was 1060 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous week; the main basis was 63 yuan/ton, down 26.74% from the previous week [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1060 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous week [14]. Fundamental - Cost and Profit - The profit of coal production lines has rebounded, the loss of natural gas production lines has intensified, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 224, with an operating rate of 75.53%, at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume was 156,800 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history [25][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 69.754 million weight boxes, up 3.09% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [46]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, and differences, as well as growth rates and net import ratios [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the glass futures continued to weaken. The main contract FG2509 closed at 982 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous week, breaking the 1000-yuan mark. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass also decreased. The glass market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly View - Futures: The main contract FG2509 of glass futures closed at 982 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The spot price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe was 1068 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous week [2][13]. - Supply: The production profit of the glass industry has deteriorated, the cold repair volume is high, and the supply is at a historical low. There were 225 float glass production lines in operation last week, with an operating rate of 75.73% and a daily melting volume of 157,300 tons [2]. - Demand: The seasonal off - season has arrived, the real - estate terminal demand recovers slowly, and the downstream orders are insufficient, mostly for rigid demand. As of May 29, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, down 0.16% from the previous week [2]. - Outlook: The glass market has weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. Impact Factor Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period, and the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, so traders and processors are cautious [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has replenished stocks periodically, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate strongly at a low level [7]. - **Risk Points**: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [7]. Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1000 | 982 | -1.80% | | Spot Benchmark Price (yuan/ton) | 1084 | 1068 | -1.48% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | 84 | 86 | 2.38% | [8] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1068 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous week [13]. Fundamental - Cost and Profit The profit of coal production lines has recovered, the loss of natural gas production lines has intensified, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [18]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 225, with an operating rate of 75.73%, and the daily melting volume is 157,300 tons. The number of operating production lines and the production capacity are at historical lows in the same period [23][25]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [29]. - The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [6]. Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, down 0.16% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, net imports, and their growth rates [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend. Although there are some positive factors such as a significant negative feedback on production profit leading to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low and progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, the negative factors are more prominent, including weak real - estate terminal demand and cautious attitudes of traders and processors. Overall, the glass is expected to be in a low - level, volatile, and slightly strong operation, but there are risks such as accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1036 yuan/ton to 1005 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.99%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass decreased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1076 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%. The main basis increased from 56 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.79% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Cost - side of Fundamentals - Coal production lines have seen a recovery in profitability, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [17]. 3.4 Production - side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. 3.5 Demand - side of Fundamentals - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 431,430 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [27][4]. 3.6 Inventory - side of Fundamentals The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 68.082 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [45]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [46]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Significant negative feedback on production profit has led to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low, and there has been progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. 3.9 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the seasonal peak - season expectation, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased restocking, resulting in a reduction in glass factory inventory. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a low - level, volatile, and slightly strong operation [5]. - **Risk Points**: Accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [5].