投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/11/25 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 | 指标 | | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 79 | | 1600 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ===== 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 日照 张家港 | 49 -11 | | 1200 800 400 | | | | | | | | | | -11 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | | | 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...

2025/11/21 | 指标 | | 11月20日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | | | 1600 1200 | ====== 18/19 == | | ===== 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | | | 83 | -15 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | 33 | -5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -17 | -15 | 400 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -17 | -45 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 | 12/28 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic soybean meal market is expected to be oscillatingly stronger, but the rebound height of the futures price is limited by the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy changes between China and the US, adjustments in the US Department of Agriculture reports, and changes in South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract), on November 3rd, the basis in Dalian was 74 with a rise of 15; in Tianjin, it was 54 with a rise of 25; in other regions like Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc., specific basis and changes are also provided. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 67 with a decline of 11. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 483 with a rise of 13, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 535 with a decline of 98 [6][7]. b. Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment, and the supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. As of October 25th, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The far - month soybean purchase and shipping progress is slow [7][8]. c. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction in production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current farming profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [9]. d. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The outcome of the China-US meeting today was below expectations, and the price of US soybeans declined. The profit margin of domestic soybean purchases has improved but remains poor. The domestic futures price is relatively low, and the futures market is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current abundant supply of near - term soybean meal in the spot market and the expected abundant global soybean supply in the long - term limit the upside potential of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy changes between China and the US and the impact of South American weather on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Price Difference Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 30th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was - 24, down 25; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 26, down 25; in Rizhao it was 6, down 25; in Dongguan it was - 44, down 25; in Zhanjiang it was - 4, down 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73, up 13 [6]. - **Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, down 3; the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448, down 16 [7]. - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, up 23; the M1 - M5 spread data was presented in the table; the M1 - RM1 spread was 900, and other spread data was also provided [6][7]. 3.2 Supply - related Information - **USDA Forecast**: The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be revised downward. Exports depend on China - US policies [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing**: As of October 25th, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5% [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Information - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports current demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Sales**: The downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels compared to the same period. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased to a low level [8]. 3.5 Other Information - **Exchange Rate and Profit**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and the import soybean crushing profit data were presented in the report [7]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Data**: The opening rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills, as well as the inventory data of domestic major oil mills' soybean meal and soybean, were provided [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean good-to-excellent rate has risen to 70% this week. Although there will be slightly less rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks, there is no significant high temperature, so the expected impact is limited. [7] - Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the outlook for soybean meal remains positive. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy. [7] - In the short term, the high存栏 of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the存栏 and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its提货 is at a high level. Some areas are using wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. [8] - This week, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased. The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly but remains in the accumulation cycle. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased. [8] - Overall, the US soybean market has rebounded. Under the current Sino - US trade policy, the Brazilian premium remains strong. The domestic situation is one of weak current reality but strong future expectations. The 101 contract of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. [8] 3. Directory - based Summaries 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of soybean meal's main contract in different regions on August 5th: Dalian was 67 with a change of 21; Tianjin was - 23 with a change of 21; etc. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions also varied, such as - 83 in Zhangjiagang with a change of 21. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 124 with a change of - 46. [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spreads include M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1, etc. For example, M9 - RM9 was - 11 in the 24/25 period. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 with a change of 30, and the main - contract spread was 299 with a change of - 47. [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory data shows the trends of Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 to 2025. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly but remains in the accumulation cycle. [7][8] 3.4开机 and Pressing Situation - The data presents the trends of national major oil mills' soybean pressing volume and开机 rate from 2020 to 2025. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic near - month soybean purchases are mostly covered, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The near - month basis is expected to remain under pressure. M09 is expected to be range - bound, and for M01, it is recommended to buy on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to China - US policies [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on July 25 was 19, - 81 in Tianjin, - 161 in both Rizhao and Zhangjiagang, - 141 in Dongguan, - 121 in both Zhanjiang and Fangcheng. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 155, with a decrease of - 103 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - M9 - 1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - RM9 being - 4 and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 346 [6][7] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The USD - CNY exchange rate was 104.00 with no change. There are data on Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil mills' soybean inventories, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventories, etc. [7] 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - Supply: This week, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%. In the next two weeks, Kansas is expected to be dry, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but other areas have normal weather, generally conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to last until September; the shipping in China from October to January is slow [7] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, and soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance. The pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal is normal [8] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily report on agricultural products, specifically focusing on the soybean and bean meal markets [4][5] - It was released by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on July 24, 2025 [5] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - The basis of the main bean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on July 23 was -25, with a change of 21. Other locations like Tianjin had a basis of -55 (change of 51), and Rizhao had -175 (change of 11) [6] - The basis of 43% bean meal spot in different locations such as Zhangjiagang (-175, change of -9), Dongguan (-195, change of 11), etc., was also reported [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was -128 [6] Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread was -21, M9 - RM9 was -3, and RM9 - 1 was 15. The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 337 (change of -13), and the spread of the main contract was 270 (change of -10) [7] Exchange Rate and Profit Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1137. The soybean CNF premium was 110.00 cents per bushel, and the import soybean gross profit was reported for different Brazilian months [7] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - The supply side shows that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska may face high - temperature and drought conditions, but overall, the weather is favorable for soybean growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of bean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September [7] - On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand. The high cost - performance of bean meal increases its proportion in feed, and提货 is at a high level. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein demand [8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises for bean meal have increased [8] Group 3: Core View - Overall, domestic bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. There are no conditions for a sharp rise in short - term spot prices. With a low basis, the upside space above 009 is limited. Under the support of import costs, it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on M01 [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations from June to August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 levels. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have increased [6] Price and Spread - On July 9th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) and the spot basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions (such as Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, etc.) showed different values and changes. The spot spread and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong also have corresponding data [4][5] Other Data - There are data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the futures crushing profit, the import soybean futures gross profit, the CNF premium of soybeans, the inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider low - level long positions for M01 [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 is at a high level. However, in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The document provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts in different regions on July 8, including the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian, Tianjin, etc., and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot and rapeseed meal spot. It also shows the spread data such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1, as well as the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [4][5]. Other Data - The document also includes data on the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, soybean CNF premium, soybean inventory in Chinese ports and major oil mills across the country, soybean meal inventory in major oil mills and feed enterprises, soybean crushing volume and operating rate of major oil mills [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - USDA planting area report and quarterly inventory report adjustments are limited, with an overall neutral impact [8] - The US soybean supply and demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation, and the CBOT US soybean futures and domestic soybean meal futures are more sensitive to the weather in US production areas [8] - Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, supporting the expected gradual increase of the soybean meal futures price center. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the far - month M01 contract [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on July 1st, the basis in Dalian is - 11, in Rizhao is - 81, in Tianjin is - 41, in Zhangjiagang is - 121, in Dongguan is - 111, in Zhanjiang is - 111, and in Fangcheng is - 111 [6] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is - 96, with a decline of - 54 [6] - The M9 - M1 spread and M9 - RM9 spread are presented, and the RM9 - 1 spread has values such as 280, 1200, etc. in different periods [6][7] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 375, with a decline of - 14, and the main - contract price difference is 360 [7] 3.2 Exchange Rate, Profit, and Premium Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.1122, and the E - type soybean import premium is 111.00 cents per bushel [7] - The import soybean futures gross profit is 232 yuan per ton, with no change [7] 3.3 Inventory Data - Information on China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2025 is presented [7] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In June, July, and August in China, the expected arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is over 10 million tons per month. The new - crop US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight, with the US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropping to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas will be favorable for growth in the next two weeks [7] - Demand: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, poultry inventory remains high, soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, feed addition ratio increases, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein [7][8] - Inventory: As of last Friday, domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a historical high for the same period, while soybean meal inventory is at a historical low, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days continue to rise [8]