8月22日，碳酸锂价格维持震荡格局，碳酸锂期货主力合约全天收跌4.41%，收于7.90万元/吨，盘中最 大跌幅超5%。目前，市场整体供应仍显宽松，基本面未发生太大变化。 消息面上，本周大中矿业（001203）、藏格矿业（000408）、江特电机（002176）等锂业企业纷纷向市 场传递产能正常释放的消息。大中矿业8月21日在业绩会上表示，湖南鸡脚山锂矿采矿证在自然资源部 正常申请办理，一期2万吨采选冶项目计划于2026年建成投产。 碳酸锂价格回调 碳酸锂期货主力合约8月22日收盘价为7.90万元/吨，全周下跌7940元，跌幅为9.14%。 成交持仓方面，碳酸锂期货本周日均成交量为118万手，上周日均成交量为132万手，环比下降11%；本 周日均持仓量为85万手，上周日均持仓量为85万手，基本持平。市场交易和投资持续活跃。 在供应端扰动的担忧下，7月以来碳酸锂的市场价格大幅波动。此前，电池级碳酸锂价格从6月下旬约6 万元/吨的低位快速上升至9万元/吨，涨幅约50%。不过截至8月22日收盘，碳酸锂价格已较最高位下跌 约13%。 此前，碳酸锂价格大涨，是因为市场对锂矿类项目采矿证办理情况存在担忧，引发投资者对供应收 ...

| | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-19 | 2025-08-13 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 81040.00 | 87580.00 | 82620.00 | -6,540.00 | W | | 收盘价 连一合约 | 81000.00 | 87600.00 | 85040.00 | -6.600.00 | ( | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 80880.00 | 87420.00 | 85280.00 | -6,540.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 80880.00 | 87420.00 | 85100.00 | -6,540.00 | | | 收盘价 | 80980.00 | 87540.00 | 85100.00 | -6,560.00 | ( | | 砖酸包期货 成交量(手) | 838879.00 | 734929.00 | 1245424.00 | 103,950.00 | | | 活跃合约 | | | | | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂( ...

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250821: Fluctuations Amplify Again, Protect Positions [2] - Report Date: August 21, 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures hit the daily limit down. The spot market had rigid - demand purchases, and the basis changed from discount to premium. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate and mica decreased. Last week, the production of carbonate lithium, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased. The profit margin expanded, production and downstream demand both rose, and social inventory decreased. Short - term supply and demand both strengthened, and the situation in the Jiangxi mining end remained active. The short - term fundamentals changed little. It is necessary to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the price of carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Prices**: On August 20, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to August 19, with a decrease of about 6,500 - 6,560 yuan/ton. The average closing price also decreased by 6,560 yuan/ton [3] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures on August 20 was 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots compared to August 19. The open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt inventory on August 20 was 24,045 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to August 19 [3] - **Spreads**: The basis changed from - 1,840 yuan/ton on August 19 to 4,720 yuan/ton on August 20, an increase of 6,560 yuan/ton. The near - month - consecutive - one spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to August 19 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) on August 20 was 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared to August 19. The average price of lithium mica decreased, and the average price of lithium phosphate aluminum stone also decreased [3] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained unchanged on August 20 compared to August 19. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide also remained unchanged [3] - **Other Product Prices**: The average prices of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide remained stable or had small changes [3] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 22.598 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [3] - Charger Metals announced the Measured Mineral Resources Estimate (MRE) of the Medcalf deposit in its Lake Johnston project in South Australia. The inferred mineral resources of the Medcalf deposit are 8.2 million tons, with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade of 1.0% and a cut - off grade of 0.5%. The Medcalf West exploration area is expected to have resources between 3 - 5 million tons, with a lithium oxide grade of 1.0% - 1.1%. The mineralization of both areas is not closed at depth [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased [3] - **Demand**: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons. The social inventory situation was that smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors increased inventory [3]

Group 1 - On August 20, the domestic lithium carbonate futures market experienced significant volatility, with the main contract closing at 80,980 yuan/ton, a decline of 8%, and all contracts hitting the limit down [1] - The A-share lithium mining sector also saw a decline, with companies such as Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) all reporting drops [1] - The futures market opened sharply lower on August 23, influenced by rumors regarding the transportation of Australian lithium concentrate to China and production disruptions at the Jiangxi mines [3] Group 2 - Jiangte Electric announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Yichun Yinli will resume production soon after a comprehensive equipment overhaul on July 25 [2] - A notable incident involved an investor who shorted lithium carbonate, resulting in a loss of over 16 million yuan within three trading days due to insufficient liquidity and subsequent forced liquidation by the futures company [5][6] - Market sentiment remains pessimistic despite the ongoing demand peak for lithium carbonate, with short-term price fluctuations driven by emotional responses rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand in the energy storage sector [2][3] - As of August 18, the lithium carbonate futures contract for September reached a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton, marking a 4.86% increase from the previous week [2] - The price increase is attributed to production halts in key mining areas, particularly by major player CATL, leading to heightened market speculation and bullish sentiment [2][4] Group 2 - The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials has surged due to the upcoming peak season for energy storage, with prices for both power-type and energy storage-type lithium iron phosphate rising significantly [4] - From August 11 to August 17, the average price of power-type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,250 yuan/ton to 35,350 yuan/ton, while energy storage-type rose from 30,900 yuan/ton to 32,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 2,100 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Despite the rising costs of raw materials, the overall price increase for ternary materials has been limited due to weak downstream demand [5] Group 3 - The article notes that while lithium carbonate prices have risen, the profitability of material companies remains under pressure due to simultaneous increases in raw and intermediate material costs [6] - Companies with inventory advantages or price-locking mechanisms are better positioned to withstand short-term impacts, while those closely collaborating with resource providers maintain relative stability [8] - For instance, companies like Deyang Nano and Fulim Precision have been actively securing upstream lithium sources to mitigate raw material cost fluctuations [8][9] Group 4 - In the short term, midstream companies are expected to face profit pressures, particularly those with low inventory or weak cost transfer capabilities [7] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices may peak and then decline after the current speculative surge [10] - As of mid-August, lithium ore inventories at trading ports increased to 27.8 million tons, indicating a potential supply cap on further price increases [12][13] Group 5 - The article also mentions that despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about a potential decline in lithium ore arrivals in August, which could further impact supply dynamics [15] - The domestic lithium salt factory operating rate increased by 1.55% week-on-week, with lithium carbonate production rising by 2.27% [17] - Overall, the market anticipates a supply-demand gap of -222 tons for lithium carbonate in August, indicating a tightening market [17]

碳酸锂价格曾在2022年初站上过40万元/吨的高点，今年却一度跌至6万元/吨的低点。就在即将跌 破成本价时，却因为"宁王"一个子矿停产，碳酸锂价格如惊弓之鸟般开始往上涨。 碳酸锂期货强势反弹 8月13日，碳酸锂主力期货价格再次大幅上涨，逼近9万元/吨，创2024年7月份以来新高。有市场参 与者预计，短期内现货价格将进一步走高，有望达到10万元/吨的出厂价。 消息面上，8月11日，宁德时代宣布，其位于江西省宜春市的枧下窝锂云母矿采矿许可证于8月9日 到期，该矿的采矿和选矿作业已暂停。受此消息影响，市场对碳酸锂未来供应缺口担忧不断，碳酸锂期 货合约"2509""2510"等涨停。二级市场上也迎来上涨"狂欢"，天齐锂业、盛新锂能、永杉锂业、江特电 机等多只锂矿股涨停，赣锋锂业涨幅超过8%。 有分析人士指出，锂矿企业一旦停产，将很难在短期内恢复，因此碳酸锂价格将维持一段时间的高 位，即使价格要回落，也要等到年底或明年初。 虽然市场上不乏乐观情绪，比如，瑞银认为锂价格下行周期最糟糕的阶段已经过去，在8月11日将 2025年—2028年锂辉石的价格预测上调了16%—27%，锂化工品（含碳酸锂和氢氧化锂）的价格预测上 调了 ...

国轩高科股价报29.21元，较前一交易日下跌0.64元。开盘价为29.96元，最高触及29.96元，最低下探 29.06元，成交量为447429手，成交金额13.12亿元。 风险提示：以上内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 来源:金融界 国轩高科主营业务为动力锂电池的研发、生产和销售，产品广泛应用于新能源汽车领域。公司属于电池 制造行业，注册地位于安徽省合肥市。 近期碳酸锂期货价格波动明显，8月7日至12日期间主力合约累计上涨18.5%。国轩高科在江西宜春的锂 矿项目目前正常开采，采矿许可证仍在有效期内。公司表示正在配合相关部门开展自查工作，确保生产 经营活动有序进行。 8月12日国轩高科主力资金净流出2.47亿元，占流通市值的0.49%。近五个交易日累计净流出2.65亿元， 占流通市值的0.53%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant price increase due to the suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mine, operated by CATL, which has impacted market sentiment and prices [1][2][3] - The Jiangxiawo mine's carbon lithium supply is approximately 10,000 tons per month, and its suspension could lead to a potential supply reduction of about 6.8 million tons in the second half of the year, representing a decrease of 13% in domestic monthly supply [2] - Analysts suggest that while the current market sentiment is bullish, the actual impact of the mine's suspension on supply and demand dynamics needs to be closely monitored, as price increases may stimulate additional lithium resource supply [2][3] Group 2 - The suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to create a temporary supply gap, but the overall supply-demand balance may not fundamentally change unless there are significant shifts in demand or additional supply disruptions [2][3] - The current high prices of lithium carbonate may encourage high-cost mines and smelters to resume production, which could lead to an influx of overseas supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices if domestic policies do not impose capacity constraints [3] - Market analysts emphasize the importance of rational investor sentiment, warning against potential price corrections following the recent price surge driven by market emotions [1][2][3]

宁德时代8月11日在互动平台表示,公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已 暂停了开采作业,正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请,待获得批复后将尽早恢 复生产、该事项对公司整体经营影响不大。 机下窝采矿规模4500万吨/年,平均品位(氧化锂含量)0.27%,满产状态下年 产碳酸锂 6 万吨,每月产量可达 5000-6000吨,占去年全国总产量的9.4%。2024年 生产碳酸锂生产现金成本8.77万,叠加锂资源税,完全成本超10万,成本明显偏高, 市场竞争力较低。 本次视下窝停产,市场已有预期,上周四、五两个交易日,碳酸锂主力合约价 对宜春其他锂矿而言,由于其余矿山采矿证到期时间均在2027年之后,短期并 综合来看,短期情绪掉下碳酸锂价格价格偏强运行,但需警惕高价不可持续 格已上涨10.54%,现消息落地后预期兑现,价格继续上涨至8.1万元/吨。一方面, 目前下游大量备库意愿较低,多以刚需为主,难以接受如此高价位原料;另一方面, 若长时间维持该价格,其余碳酸锂厂家盈利空间恢复,供给将迅速得到补充,综合 来看,目前基本面供过于求情况下,短期超涨概率较大,之后价格仍将面临回调。 无到期重新审批问题。而新《矿产资源法》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The confirmation of the shutdown of the Jiangxiawo mine by CATL has reignited market sentiment to buy lithium prices, leading to significant increases in lithium futures and related stocks [1][10] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the shutdown announcement, all lithium carbonate futures contracts, except for the soon-to-be-delivered LC2508, hit the daily limit, with domestic lithium carbonate spot prices and lithium mining stocks rising sharply [1][9] - Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares saw an intraday increase of over 20% [1] - The average market price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,560 yuan to 74,520 yuan per ton, with other benchmarks also reflecting significant increases [9] Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading activity in lithium carbonate futures has intensified, with the trading position ratio for the "new main" LC2511 contract rising to approximately 2.8 times [2][16] - The total open interest for lithium carbonate futures increased from 69,000 contracts to 78,200 contracts between August 6 and 8, indicating a net increase of about 9,000 contracts [7] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The shutdown of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to reduce supply by approximately 0.9 million tons per month, as the associated three lithium carbonate refining enterprises have a combined capacity of 100,000 tons [13] - The mine's mining rights, which began on August 9, 2022, are set to expire on August 9, 2025, and there is potential for resumption of operations if the renewal application is approved [6][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current bullish sentiment, there are differing opinions on the future price trajectory of lithium carbonate, with some analysts suggesting limited further price increases due to potential increases in imports and domestic processing output [13][14] - The market is also experiencing increased speculation, as evidenced by the significant fluctuations in trading positions and the potential for regulatory adjustments by exchanges in response to rapid price movements [17][18]