二、 风电龙头绿能转型加速，绿醇规划产能达205万吨/年，第二增长曲线实锤！机构预计2027年 净利润逼近45亿元、动态PE低至15.3倍。 前言 点击付费阅读，解锁市场最强音，把握投资机会！ 券商研报信息复杂？机构调研数据过时？屡屡错失投资机会？那是你不会挖！想知道哪份研报有用？什 么时候该看？《研报金选》满足你！每日拆解热门产业链或核心公司，快市场一步的投研思维+严苛的 研报选择标准+几近偏执的超预期挖掘，游资私募都在用！ 一、 稀土管制再加码，含磁材组件首次纳入出口管制，战略价值再次升华！机构坚定看涨稀土价 格、强call上游资源与磁材企业利润有望改善，龙头名单梳理来了； ...

截至2025年10月9日 10:10，中证稀土产业指数强势上涨3.76%，成分股安泰科技上涨10.03%，九菱科技 上涨8.69%，金风科技上涨7.15%，包钢股份，三川智慧等个股跟涨。稀土ETF嘉实(516150)上涨 3.59%。 流动性方面，稀土ETF嘉实盘中换手4.32%，成交3.43亿元。拉长时间看，截至9月30日，稀土ETF嘉实 近1周日均成交4.57亿元，居可比基金第一。 规模方面，稀土ETF嘉实近3月规模增长51.97亿元，新增规模位居可比基金第一。份额方面，稀土ETF 嘉实近3月份额增长22.65亿份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金第一。 长江证券表示，稀土作为最核心的战略金属，在国家强化管控稀土生产的配额管理以及涉及的生产企业 下，有望进一步提振稀土的关键战略价值。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 5.55% | 13.22% | | 000831 | 中国稀土 | 4.58% | 5.63% | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 3.16% | 4.93% | | 0023 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rare earth market is experiencing a positive outlook due to increased demand during the consumption peak season and a significant month-on-month increase of 51% in rare earth export value in August [1] - The China Rare Earth Price Index rose from 163.5 at the end of 2024 to 216.3 on September 11, 2025, reflecting a 32.29% increase, indicating a historical price rise in rare earths this year [1] - A leading company in the rare earth industry expressed confidence in the medium to long-term market trends, emphasizing that the strategic importance and application prospects of rare earths remain unchanged, supporting the industry's high-quality development [1] Group 2 - Changjiang Securities reported that the introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" on August 22 has officially included imported ores in the quota system, which is expected to stimulate commodity prices due to supply contraction [2] - The rare earth ETF (516780) and its connected funds track the China Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes listed companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with the top five constituent stocks being Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Lingyi Technology, Shenghe Resources, and Wolong Electric Drive [2] - The management of the rare earth ETF (516780) by Huatai-PB Fund, which has over 18 years of ETF operation experience, is noted for its industry-leading index investment management capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing mixed performance, with significant movements in key stocks and a notable increase in the rare metals ETF's scale and liquidity, indicating strong investor interest and potential opportunities in the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, 2025, the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index decreased by 0.02%, with stocks like Dongfang Zirconium and Yunnan Zinc hitting the daily limit up, while others like Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium fell [1]. - The rare metals ETF (562800) showed a turnover of 4.79% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 76.08 million yuan [3]. - The rare metals ETF reached a new high in scale at 1.576 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 2.266 billion, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Returns - The rare metals ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 45.66 million yuan, totaling 87.15 million yuan [3]. - Over the past year, the rare metals ETF's net value increased by 72.84%, ranking in the top 10.15% among index equity funds [3]. - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with an average monthly return of 8.13% during rising months [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo's government has implemented a temporary export ban on cobalt products, expected to reduce global cobalt supply by 22.3% in 2025, while demand is projected to grow by 9.1% due to stable penetration rates of ternary lithium batteries [4]. - The supply-demand balance for cobalt is shifting from surplus to shortage, with cobalt prices expected to maintain above 350,000 yuan per ton in 2026-2027 [4]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - The U.S. Department of Defense's acquisition of a 15% stake in MP Materials for $400 million highlights the strategic value of rare earths, with the U.S. committing to purchase neodymium oxide at prices 74% higher than domestic levels [5]. - China has implemented export controls on heavy rare earth elements, reinforcing the strategic position of rare earths as dual-use resources amid a backdrop of "de-globalization" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The limited marginal increase in supply, along with improved expectations for both export and domestic demand, is likely to drive a rebound in domestic rare earth prices. The global rare earth supply landscape is undergoing profound restructuring due to de-globalization, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies, as well as related overseas companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In 2024, the average prices of rare earth materials such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide are expected to decline by -26% and -37% respectively, with a gradual stabilization starting in Q2 2024 [2][6]. - The average price of neodymium-iron-boron (50H) is projected to decrease by -23% year-on-year in 2024, with a quarterly price trend showing a slight recovery in subsequent quarters [6][18]. - Domestic demand for rare earth materials is expected to remain strong, with significant growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and variable frequency air conditioners, which are projected to increase by 39%, 14%, and 18% respectively in 2024 [7][18]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of rare earths is becoming increasingly controlled domestically, with a total mining and separation quota of 270,000 tons set for 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [7][12]. - The global supply chain for rare earths is being reshaped, with countries like the US and EU accelerating local industry chain construction to ensure supply chain security and stability [2][82]. - The export of rare earth materials is expected to recover, particularly in the context of the "electrification of everything" trend, which is anticipated to drive demand for rare earth permanent magnets [3][18]. Group 3: Company Performance - Domestic rare earth companies are facing significant profit declines, with a projected 81% drop in net profit for four major upstream rare earth companies in 2024, while downstream permanent magnet companies are expected to see a 54% decline [2][18]. - The performance of US-based MP Materials and Australian Lynas is also declining, with MP Materials expected to report a net profit drop of 369% in 2024, while Lynas anticipates a 75% decrease in net profit [62][75]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of gradual improvement in the financial performance of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies starting in Q2 2024, as prices stabilize [18][37]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The domestic rare earth industry is characterized by six major trends, including improved supply control capabilities, price discrepancies between domestic and international markets, and ongoing overseas resource layout by companies like Shenghe Resources [89][90]. - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is being driven by emerging applications in humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors, with significant growth expected in these areas [95][97]. - Research and development of heavy rare earth-free permanent magnet materials are accelerating, with companies achieving stable production of high-performance magnets without heavy rare earth elements [99][105].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic positioning of rare earth materials is increasingly strengthened, and the potential for value reassessment is emerging due to the intensifying competition in global strategic industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and military [1][13]. - Rare earth prices have reached historical lows, with a cumulative decline of nearly 70% over the past three years, driven by slowing growth in new energy, weak traditional demand, and strong domestic supply releases [3][15]. - The Chinese government is enhancing its control over the rare earth industry, with new regulations and a significant reduction in the growth rate of rare earth smelting and separation quotas from 21% in 2023 to 4% in 2024 [3][18]. - The strategic value of rare earths is highlighted amid global trade tensions, with China implementing export controls on certain heavy rare earth items, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets [4][24]. - The gradual relaxation of export approvals for magnetic materials is expected to strengthen customer loyalty for leading companies and boost overseas replenishment demand [5][35]. Summary by Sections Current Price Situation - Rare earth prices are at historical bottom levels, with the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide dropping to 350,000 yuan/ton, touching the industry cost line [3][15]. - As of July 14, 2025, the five-year price percentiles for praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide are approximately 49%, 12%, and 43%, respectively, indicating they remain in the historical bottom range [3][15]. Government Control and Industry Dynamics - The domestic rare earth industry has undergone several rounds of consolidation, significantly increasing supply concentration and state control [3][18]. - New regulations emphasize the dominance of two major groups in the development of the domestic rare earth industry, with a focus on reducing supply in response to weak prices [3][18]. Strategic Value in Global Trade Context - Rare earths have become a critical resource for China, serving as a tool for trade retaliation amid ongoing trade conflicts, with export controls leading to a tightening of supply in overseas markets [4][24]. - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to invest significantly in local rare earth mining companies to increase production capacity, indicating a strong strategic interest in rare earth resources [4][24]. Magnetic Material Export and Market Outlook - The approval process for magnetic material exports is gradually being relaxed, which may enhance the profitability of magnetic material companies as rare earth prices rise [5][35]. - The development of humanoid robots, particularly by companies like Tesla, is expected to drive demand for magnetic materials, with potential increases in production and sales [5][38].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by strong performance in the rare metals ETF and key stocks, alongside favorable market conditions influenced by geopolitical factors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 10, 2025, the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) rose by 1.89%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Northern Rare Earth (600111) hitting the daily limit, and Zhongke Magnetic (301141) increasing by 7.01% [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (159608) saw a half-day increase of 1.92%, with intraday gains exceeding 2% [1] - Over the past week, the Rare Metals ETF recorded an average daily trading volume of 15.06 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Growth - The Rare Metals ETF experienced a net inflow of 4.51 million yuan over four days, with a peak single-day inflow of 2.01 million yuan [1][2] - In the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 1.57 million yuan, leading the comparable funds, and its shares grew by 7.2 million, also ranking first among peers [1][2] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Rare Metals ETF's net value increased by 30.85% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - Since its inception, the ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 24.11%, with an average monthly return of 7.53% [2] Group 4: Key Stocks and Earnings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 54.07% of the index, including Salt Lake Potash (000792) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2] - Northern Rare Earth projected a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 855 million to 915 million yuan, equating to a growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [2] Group 5: Strategic Insights - Western Securities noted that the rare earth sector's strategic importance has increased due to U.S. tariff policies, which may benefit Northern Rare Earth's performance [3] - GF Securities suggested that uncertainties in tariff policies could lead to stricter management of rare earth mining indicators, enhancing the strategic value of rare earth permanent magnets [3]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the geopolitical struggle for rare earth resources, with the US, Japan, India, and Australia forming an alliance to counter China's dominance through the "Critical Minerals Initiative" [1][2] - The alliance's strategy involves Japan providing rare earth patent technology, Australia supplying high-quality rare earth minerals, India managing hazardous waste, and the US benefiting from this division of labor to break China's monopoly [2][4] - China's response includes the implementation of a new Mineral Resources Law that categorizes rare earths as strategic minerals and introduces export controls on certain rare earth elements, leveraging its significant global market share [4][5] Group 2 - The alliance faces critical weaknesses, including reliance on outdated technology, an imbalance in raw material availability, and China's control over essential equipment for rare earth processing, which could cripple the alliance if export controls are enacted [5][7] - The strategic implications extend beyond economics, as the US defense industry heavily relies on Chinese rare earths for military applications, highlighting the risks associated with supply chain vulnerabilities [7][9] - Experts predict that the alliance will struggle to achieve significant progress in the short term due to technological barriers and China's ongoing advancements in the rare earth industry, indicating a prolonged and escalating resource conflict [9]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Rare Earth Industry Index down by 1.59% as of June 19, 2025, while specific stocks show mixed performance, indicating a volatile market environment [1][3]. Industry Summary - The rare earth sector is crucial for various industries, including electric vehicles and wind power, with China producing nearly 70% of the world's rare earth materials as of 2024, highlighting its significant role in the global supply chain [5][6]. - The overall attention on the rare earth sector is expected to increase due to its pricing power and extensive downstream applications, alongside policy catalysts that may lead to a revaluation of the sector [6]. Company Summary - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest (516150) has shown a trading volume of 2.75% and a transaction value of 67.89 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week [3]. - The Harvest rare earth ETF has seen a net inflow of 9.1964 million yuan recently, with a total of 26.9 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]. - As of June 18, 2025, the Harvest rare earth ETF's net asset value has increased by 30.55% over the past year, placing it in the top 13.16% among equity index funds [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain, which has shifted the balance of power in trade negotiations in favor of China [1][3] - Recent diplomatic communications from Japan, South Korea, and EU countries have focused on the keyword "rare earth" due to China's export control measures on seven types of rare earth elements [3][4] - China's rare earth separation technology has significantly improved, allowing the country to control over 60% of global rare earth production and 92% of refined rare earth compounds as of 2023 [7][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of China's rare earth industry, including the strategic value emphasized by Deng Xiaoping and the technological advancements made by Xu Guangxian [4][5][6] - The impact of China's export controls on global rare earth prices is illustrated by the dramatic price increases observed from 2009 to 2011, where prices for certain rare earth oxides surged by up to 26 times [12] - The current export control system requires foreign companies to provide detailed operational and product information to obtain export licenses, which is seen as a strategic move to ensure that rare earths do not enter military applications [13][15][18] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the critical role of rare earth elements in modern technology, particularly in military and automotive applications, highlighting the dependency of the U.S. on Chinese rare earth supplies [22][24] - The challenges faced by global companies, including those in India and Europe, due to China's export controls are discussed, with reports of potential production halts [26][27] - The article concludes that the restructuring of the rare earth supply chain is a long-term process, and current U.S. efforts to reduce dependency on Chinese supplies have not yet succeeded [30][31]