1.2、本月纯碱市场价格对比 | | | | | 9月纯碱市场价格汇总(单位:元/吨) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 规格 | 2025年8月 | 2025年9月 | 月度涨跌 | 环比 | 2024年9月 | 年度涨跌 | 备注 | | 东北地区 | 轻质纯碱 | 1373 | 1350 | -23 | -1.68% | 1675 | -325 | - | | | 重质纯碱 | 1440 | 1394 | -46 | -3. 19% | 1750 | -356 | - | | 华北市区 | 轻质纯碱 | 1274 | 1220 | -54 | -4. 24% | 1625 | -405 | 一单一议 | | | 重辰纯碱 | 1316 | 1274 | -42 | -3. 19% | 1725 | -451 | 一单一议 | | 华东地区 | 轻质纯碱 | 1318 | 1335 | 17 | 1. 29% | 1525 | -190 | 一审一议 | | | 車质纯碱 | 1328 | 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - In the glass market, spot prices in various regions showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable, and the production - sales situation also varied by region. In the soda ash market, factory inventory decreased significantly while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and downstream demand was driven by pre - holiday restocking [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe Security increased from 1155.0 to 1224.0, a weekly increase of 69.0 and a daily increase of 17.0; Wuhan Changli's 5mm large - plate glass price rose from 1100.0 to 1180.0, a weekly increase of 80.0 and a daily increase of 40.0. However, the prices of Shandong and South China's 5mm large - plate glass remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1383.0 on September 25th to 1372.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 11.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1270.0 to 1252.0, a daily decrease of 18.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The FG 1 - 5 spread was - 120.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 7.0 and a daily decrease of 7.0; the 01 Hebei basis was - 49.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 24.0 and a daily increase of 23.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired profit increased from 291.6 on September 25th to 302.2 on September 26th, a daily increase of 10.6; North China's natural gas profit increased from - 159.3 to - 150.1, a daily increase of 9.2 [2]. - **Production - Sales Situation**: The production - sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 104, 108, 116, and 157 respectively [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1230.0 to 1200.0, a weekly decrease of 30.0 and a daily decrease of 20.0; North China's light soda price dropped from 1170.0 to 1120.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and a daily decrease of 10.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1404.0 on September 25th to 1384.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 20.0; the SA01 contract price dropped from 1315.0 to 1293.0, a daily decrease of 22.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The SA01 - SA05 spread was - 91.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 2.0 and a daily decrease of 2.0; the SA01 Shahe basis was - 93.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 5.0 and a daily increase of 2.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 152.0 on September 25th to - 168.8 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 16.8; North China's combined - soda process profit dropped from - 175.0 to - 192.4, a daily decrease of 17.4 [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventory decreased significantly, while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and overall inventory decreased [2].

Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market is showing a stable yet slightly weak trend, with some regional price declines [2] - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The supply from Hai Jing Yue He production line has returned to normal, leading to a slight increase in industry supply [2] Group 2 - The light soda ash price index on September 23 is 1184.29, a decrease of 4.29 from the previous working day, representing a -0.36% change [3] - The heavy soda ash price index is 1232.86, down 7.14 from the previous working day, indicating a -0.58% change [3] Group 3 - On September 23, the main futures contract SA2601 opened at 1287 CNY/ton and closed at 1273 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.60% [5] - The futures market is experiencing a weak oscillation pattern, influenced by the low sentiment in the chemical sector and the decline in glass futures prices [5] - Despite some pre-holiday inventory replenishment, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply levels and increasing losses for companies [5] Group 4 - Future supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with limited maintenance plans, while demand is stable with modest support from pre-holiday stocking [6] - Current manufacturer inventory pressure is not significant, and there is a strong intention to maintain prices, suggesting that future prices will likely oscillate and stabilize [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is still at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is -93 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to Rise**: The peak maintenance period within the year is coming, and the output is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely to Fall**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro policies has subsided [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous value; the main basis is -93 yuan, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia-alkali method is -96.75 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China co-production method is -108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%, and the weekly output is 745,700 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 417,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Change**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stabilizes; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduces production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [35]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply and demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The supply is at a high level, the end - demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash is high as there are few alkali plant overhauls, while the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable and that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The terminal demand is average, and the factory inventory of soda ash is at a high level in the same period [2]. - The basis is - 93 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][35]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry production is at a high level in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, the terminal demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, with a increase of 0.92% compared with the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, with a increase of 1.24%. The main basis is - 93 yuan, a decrease of 3.13% [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.75 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.53%, and the weekly production is 745,700 tons, including 417,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with the production at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacities of 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons, and a planned 7.5 million tons (1 million tons actually put into production) respectively [20]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% is stable [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [36].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a neutral fundamental situation. During the peak season, demand provides weak support at the lower end, while there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies at the upper end. Technically, the bulls are continuous and stable, and the bears are discontinuous, so the glass futures price often has a lower shadow line. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for the 01 contract, paying attention to the support level of 1150 - 1160 [3][4]. - The callback - buying strategy is recommended for glass investment. The main logic is that the glass fundamentals have no obvious changes, the price is affected by coal environmental protection news, the inventory is generally decreasing, the cost of coal - gas production has increased, and the demand from the middle and lower reaches has a short - term replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Callback buying [3][5]. - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first rose and then fell. The fundamentals remained unchanged, and the price followed the coking coal futures due to coal environmental protection news. There were no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline, but the inventory in North China increased slightly due to rumors of production suspension in Shahe. The inventory in Hubei continued to decline, and the orders of processing plants in East and South China were good. The cost of coal - gas production increased, and the profit decreased, while the profit of petroleum - coke production increased. The middle and lower reaches had short - term replenishment, and the market sentiment improved. The supply and inventory of soda ash decreased slightly, and it was expected to fluctuate recently considering future capacity expansion [3]. - Outlook: The glass fundamentals are neither good nor bad. In the peak season, demand provides weak support, and there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies. Technically, the bulls are strong, so a long - position strategy for the 01 contract is maintained, with attention to the 1150 - 1160 support level [4]. 02 Market Review: Spot Price Increase - Spot Price: As of September 19, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,140 yuan/ton (+30) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (+10) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,216 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan for the week [12]. 03 Market Review: Widening of Monthly Spreads - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of September 19, the soda ash futures price was 1,318 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,216 yuan/ton, with a spread of 102 yuan/ton (-8). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 106 yuan/ton (+4). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (-23) [13][17]. 04 Profit: Increase in Gas Cost - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,579 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was - 349 yuan/ton (+9). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,181 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 31 yuan/ton (-22). - Petroleum - Coke Process: The cost was 1,093 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was 47 yuan/ton (+29). - Fuel Prices: On September 19, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 598 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Unchanged - Daily Melting Volume: Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 159,455 tons/day (unchanged), with 225 production lines in operation [22]. - Production Line Changes: There were cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions in some production lines [23][24]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - National Inventory: As of September 19, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,090.8 million weight boxes (-67.5). - Regional Inventory: The inventory in North China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+30.9), in Central China was 589 million weight boxes (-33.7), in East China was 1,320.7 million weight boxes (-18.1), in South China was 941.7 million weight boxes (-13.8), in Southwest China was 1,248 million weight boxes (+5.6), the Shahe factory inventory was 278 million weight boxes (+31), and the Hubei factory inventory was 417 million weight boxes (-32) [26]. - Production and Sales Rate: On September 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 100% (+4). - LOW - E Glass: On September 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (+1). - Order Days: In mid - September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [32]. 07 Deep - Processing: Recovery and Maintenance of Production and Sales Rate - The production and sales rate of glass deep - processing recovered and was maintained. The order days and the operating rate of LOW - E glass showed certain trends [32][34]. 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Growth in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million units, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 units. The sales volume was 2.857 million units, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 units. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in China was 1.101 million units, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [42]. 09 Demand: Decline in Real Estate Development Investment - Real Estate: In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). - Transaction Area: From September 13 to September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. - Development Investment: In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [48]. 10 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Market Price Increase - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - Factory Price: The ex - factory prices of some heavy soda ash enterprises had certain changes. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,318 yuan/ton (+28). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 09 contract was - 18 yuan/ton (-28) [51][55][56]. 11 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Cost Increase - Profit: As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 71 yuan/ton (-16). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,100 yuan/ton (+111), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,320 yuan/ton (+44), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production process was 1,739 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 71 yuan/ton (-16) [57][58][59]. 12 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Inventory Reduction - Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.57 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons), including 41.77 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons) and 32.8 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons). The loss was 12.62 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.53 million tons). - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 6916). - Inventory: As of September 19, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,900 tons), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 28,400 tons) and 749,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons) [72]. 13 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Improvement in Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 446,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 341,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.39%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [75][80].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing slight price adjustments, with overall trading activity remaining low and a cautious sentiment prevailing among downstream buyers [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of August 25, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1350 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1340-1500 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash on August 25 is 1210, reflecting a decrease of 2.86, or -0.24%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1255.71 [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 25, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1328 CNY/ton and closed at 1337 CNY/ton, showing a daily increase of 1.75%. The highest price during the day was 1354 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 1321 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,386,264 contracts, an increase of 13,664 contracts [5]. - The futures market is showing a warm oscillating pattern, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and rising costs, particularly due to disruptions in coking coal supply [5]. Market Outlook - There are plans for maintenance by some companies this week, which may lead to slight fluctuations in supply. However, demand remains limited, and order releases are cautious. The overall inventory in the industry is still high, prompting manufacturers to adopt flexible order strategies to boost sales [6]. - The market is expected to continue a weak oscillating trend, with close attention needed on inventory changes, maintenance progress, and new order transactions [6].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1328.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1354.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.90% [1] - The supply of soda ash is decreasing due to some production facilities operating at reduced capacity, leading to increased inventory pressure [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that soda ash prices will remain volatile, while medium to long-term projections suggest a gradual increase in price levels due to supply-side constraints and market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The float glass industry is maintaining stable operations, with a slight increase in inventory, while downstream demand remains steady, primarily driven by essential needs [2] - Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in soda ash production by 10,100 tons, mainly from the light soda segment, which is significantly higher than historical levels [2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a continued trend of inventory accumulation, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons, although the pace of accumulation is slowing down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand is weakening, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,326 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 106 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][36]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,306 yuan/ton | 1,205 yuan/ton | - 101 yuan | | Current Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.53% | 1.24% | 4.95% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is delayed [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [20]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E [37].

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with slight price adjustments in some regions for heavy soda ash [2] - As of August 20, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1370 CNY/ton [2] Price Index Analysis - On August 20, the light soda ash price index stood at 1217.14, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 8.57 to 1257.14, reflecting a decline of 0.68% [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1358 CNY/ton and closed at 1309 CNY/ton on August 20, marking a daily decline of 5.01% [5] - The market is under pressure due to high supply and accumulating inventory, with concerns over demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry [5] Future Market Predictions - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with increasing industry inventory [6] - Key factors to monitor include the resumption of production facilities, downstream replenishment activities, and fluctuations in futures market sentiment [6]