Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both light and heavy soda ash showing significant declines compared to previous periods [1] Price Trends - As of September 3, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in China is 1,223 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 25.1% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average terminal price of heavy soda ash is 1,308 yuan/ton, showing a 3.5% decrease month-on-month and a 24.2% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Operations - The summer maintenance of soda ash production facilities has largely concluded, leading to a gradual increase in industry operating rates [1] - Despite the increase in operating rates, many manufacturers are currently operating at a loss due to the weak market prices [1] Market Sentiment - The futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The short-term outlook for the domestic soda ash spot market remains under pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of the glass industry are currently weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season. For the soda ash industry, the fundamentals have not improved, and it will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. - For soda ash, the industry pattern has not significantly improved. Supply - side production has rebounded and remained at a high level, while demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short - term upstream inventory has increased again, and the absolute inventory level is high, which is difficult to provide sufficient support based on fundamentals. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and coal price fluctuations. For glass, the fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange recently. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [4][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - This week, the spot price slightly decreased, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas in North China and East China saw price drops in heavy soda ash. The national market prices of heavy and light soda ash both slightly decreased. The futures price was stable with a slight upward trend. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [5][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the production of soda ash increased, with both light and heavy soda ash production rising. The overall operating rate increased, with the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process slightly decreasing and that of the co - production process increasing significantly [4][13]. 3.1.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises increased, and the overall production - sales rate increased. However, the demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid needs. Next week, the demand for float glass is expected to increase slightly, while that for photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. The net export volume decreased in June [4][21]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises increased slightly. The inventory of light soda ash increased, while that of heavy soda ash decreased [4][29]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of the co - production method (double - ton) and the ammonia - soda method both decreased slightly [4][33]. 3.1.6 Strategy - The soda ash industry pattern has not improved significantly. Supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and coal price fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - The spot price was stable with a slight decrease. The futures price of the main 2601 contract increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [37][42]. 3.2.2 Supply - Last week, the daily output and weekly output of float glass remained unchanged. The operating rate increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged. There were 223 production lines in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut - down lines [36][47]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of mid - August, the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, but the downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate end - stage recovery was weak, and the new - construction willingness at the front - end was low. In July, the production and sales of automobiles decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year and were at a relatively high level in recent years [36][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 2.55% month - on - month, and inventories in all regions increased to varying degrees [36][63]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of float glass produced by coal - gas, natural gas, and petroleum coke all decreased slightly [36][77]. 3.2.6 Strategy - The fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [36].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

品种投资策略报告 2025 年 7 月 7 日 正信化工团队 策略提供 黄益 Tel：027-68851659 Email: huangyi@zxqh.net 投资咨询编号：Z0020858 赵婷 Tel：027-68851659 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 服务公众号 正信期货研究院 纯碱：供需宽松，弱势难改 摘要 中期看，纯碱大方向的趋势走弱并没有改变，依旧是以偏空思路对 待。目前上游库存偏高，由于库存分布较为集中，三季度检修季内 若供应端大装置出现意外情况或者宏观政策出台，可能阶段性刺激 盘面，但整体供应压力下预计难有反弹空间。到三季度末随着年度 检修基本结束，纯碱行业将面临较明显的库存压力，届时也可以选 择逢高做空 01 合约，不过由于绝对价格相对低位，轻仓操作为佳。 请仔细阅读最后一条免责条款 1 专业成就未来 半年度报告 品种投资策略报告 目录 请仔细阅读最后一条免责条款 2 专业成就未来 一、行情回顾 二、供给端分析 三、需求端分析 四、库存端分析 五、成本利润端分析 六、总结与展望 品种投资策略报告 一、 行情回顾：供需过剩格局难改，阶段性检修支 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current soda ash market has sufficient supply and weak demand. The two major downstream industries, float glass and photovoltaic glass, are in a difficult situation, with inventory on the rise. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and soda ash prices may still face downward pressure in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 25, 2025, for the soda ash 2508 contract, the latest price was 1171, up 3 with a 0.26% increase, the open interest was 11699, down 29, and the trading volume was 2655. Its opening price was 1166, the highest was 1173, the lowest was 1159, and the settlement price was 1166 [4]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the latest price was 1166, up 1 with a 0.09% increase, the open interest was 1561404, down 7874, and the trading volume was 953401. Its opening price was 1158, the highest was 1168, the lowest was 1152, and the settlement price was 1160 [4]. - For the soda ash 2601 contract, the latest price was 1159, up 2 with a 0.17% increase, the open interest was 557916, up 2848, and the trading volume was 125828. Its opening price was 1150, the highest was 1160, the lowest was 1146, and the settlement price was 1154 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On June 25, domestic soda ash enterprises' quotes remained at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of light soda ash was around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream delivered price of heavy soda ash to end - users was about 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply**: Since June, the weekly output of soda ash has remained above 700,000 tons, with significant supply pressure. Although some plants have maintenance plans in the medium - term approaching summer, there are few new maintenance plans in the short term, and the overall supply is at a high level [5]. - **Demand**: The involution in the photovoltaic glass industry has led to production cuts. The price rebound of float glass is based on the expectation of supply tightening. Whether the unplanned cold repairs are realized or not, it is unfavorable for the demand of soda ash. In addition, in the demand for light soda ash, the support from lithium carbonate and daily - use glass is limited, and the substitution ratio of caustic soda is less than 5%, with limited incremental demand. Overall, the demand recovery of downstream industries for soda ash is weak, and procurement is mostly for rigid needs, with a cautious market performance [5]. - **Macro - level**: There are signs of easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the overnight crude oil futures price has declined. Although the State Council executive meeting has made targeted arrangements for the real estate market recently, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is still declining without an obvious turning point, and its role in driving the demand for the glass industry downstream of soda ash is not clear [5][6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 纯碱 |专题报告 专业研究·创造价值 纯碱专题报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授予 的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询 资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态 度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报 告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐 意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任 何形式的报酬。 纯碱估值探究 姓名：闾振兴 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03104274 投资咨询证号：Z0018163 电话：0571-87633890 邮箱：lvzhenxing@bcqhgs.com 报告日期:2025 年 6 月 18 日 作者声明 核心观点 商品的估值往往与基差、价格结构变化、燃料价格、生产成本/利润、 相关品、生产工艺中的副产品以及上下游商品的价格有关系，本文尝试从 这几个角度探究纯碱的估值。 纯碱的基差大多时间依赖期货价格的溢价，但在大上涨行情的初期， 现货主动性更好，在行情的中后期和下跌时，期货的主动性更明显，而当 基差相对平稳时，往往市场矛盾是明牌，不剧烈，当前就是这个状态。 纯碱价格结构对供需关系（或库存）的反应非常敏感，目前处于从陡 峭的 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [1] Key Data Summary Inventory Data (in 10,000 tons) - **National Enterprise Inventory on June 6, 2025**: 162.7, including 79 for light soda ash and 83.7 for heavy soda ash [3] - **Inventory Comparison**: Compared with May 30, 2025, national enterprise inventory increased slightly, light soda ash inventory decreased from 81.83 to 79, and heavy soda ash inventory increased from 80.6 to 83.7 [3] Production and Apparent Consumption Data (in 10,000 tons) - **Total Production on June 6, 2025**: 70.41, with 32.19 for light soda ash and 38.22 for heavy soda ash [3] - **Apparent Consumption on June 6, 2025**: Total apparent consumption was 70.14, light soda ash apparent consumption was 35.02, and heavy soda ash apparent consumption was 35.12 [3] Daily Melting Data (in 10,000 tons) - **Total Daily Melting on June 6, 2025**: 25.56, including 15.68 for float glass and 9.88 for photovoltaic glass [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]