1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling soda ash. In the medium - to - long term, the price of soda ash may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. For glass, due to the weak fundamentals, it is advisable to short on rallies or sell call options monthly. However, if the macro - sentiment is good, the price may remain stable. It is also recommended to go long on soda ash and short on glass for spread trading [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Preface - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors experienced a rapid decline and slow recovery, releasing market risks and repairing the mis - priced valuations. The soda ash, glass, and black sectors were mainly in a downward trend before the Spring Festival and had a strong bullish sentiment after the festival. The market anticipates a general rise in commodity prices in spring, mainly due to the macro - sentiment repair brought by the Two Sessions and inflation logic. The uncertainty of US tariffs still exists, but the tariff peak may have passed. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions, as environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution this year. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector [2]. Part Two: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the futures price of the main soda ash contract declined. The SA05 contract fluctuated between 1146 - 1235 yuan/ton, with increased volatility and a lower trading range. The SA2605 - 09 spread was stable, ending at - 62 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of - 2 yuan/ton. The basis of SA05 was - 19 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 24 yuan/ton. The FG05 - SA05 spread first rose and then fell, ending at - 132 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 19 yuan/ton. Spot prices of soda ash manufacturers were stable to slightly weak [7]. 2. Risk Release in Non - ferrous Metals and Approaching Two Sessions - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined to release risks, with silver leading the decline with a monthly drop of 22%. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors rebounded after hitting the bottom. By the end of the month, the non - ferrous sector had a decline of 7.8%, and the precious metal sector had a decline of 18.4%. The market risk was quickly released, and the mis - priced valuations were repaired. The Two Sessions in March will focus on new - quality productivity, stable growth, expanding domestic demand, industrial upgrading, security development, and people's livelihood security. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions, and environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for 249 photovoltaic and chemical products will be cancelled. In the United States, the mid - term elections will be held in November 2026, and Trump's overall support rate has dropped to about 38% [10][11]. 3. Soda Ash Production at a Historical High and Gradually Accumulating Inventory Pressure - In February, the new production capacity of soda ash was gradually increased, with a monthly output of about 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Some soda ash enterprises had maintenance or shutdowns, while some increased production. Overall, there were few maintenance activities, and the release of new production capacity led to an increase in comprehensive supply. In March, Zhongyan Kunshan has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans yet. The concentrated increase in new production capacity will gradually put pressure on the soda ash supply. Before discussing the elimination of high - cost production capacity, more attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the operating rate of soda ash enterprises, which is the core observation indicator for the marginal change in the supply - demand relationship [15]. 4. Resilient Demand for Light and Heavy Soda Ash and Lower - than - Expected Inventory Accumulation - During the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased by 306,400 tons, a rise of 19.29%. By the end of the month, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8944 million tons. The inventory accumulation rate during the Spring Festival was lower than market expectations, indicating resilient demand. In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling. However, in the medium - to - long term, the price may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. In February, the average weekly apparent demand for soda ash was about 669,000 tons, equivalent to an average daily apparent demand of about 96,000 tons, a 7.7% decrease compared to the previous month. Among them, the average weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 362,000 tons, a decrease of about 41,000 tons compared to the previous month. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,000 tons, a decrease of about 19,000 tons compared to the previous month [20]. 5. Pressure on Cost Transmission in Photovoltaic Glass and Increasing Downward Pressure on Post - Festival Demand - As of the end of February, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,560 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the beginning of the month. It is expected that the global production of downstream components in March will be about 36GW, and the domestic production will be about 28GW. The cancellation of the 9% VAT export tax rebate for core photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers and components from April 1, 2026, led to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass by downstream component enterprises in advance. However, after the industry dividend fades in late March, it is still uncertain whether domestic demand in April can support the high - production of upstream enterprises. On the supply side, most kilns are operating normally, but enterprises are in a state of continuous loss. On the demand side, although supported by export orders, the production of components in February was weak, and the supply - demand gap in the industry remained high. After the Spring Festival, the inventory pressure increased rapidly [25][26][27]. 6. Resilient and Unexpected Demand for Light Soda Ash - As the price of soda ash decreases, its advantage as a basic chemical product becomes prominent. The decentralized downstream demand brings resilience. In 2025, the apparent demand for light soda ash increased unexpectedly, with the annual apparent demand reaching 16.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, far exceeding the previous growth rate range of - 2.6% to 4.5%. The quantifiable part is mainly due to the rapid growth of lithium carbonate production. In 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 944,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate required about 1.89 million tons of light soda ash. In February, the monthly apparent demand for light soda ash was about 1.284 million tons [30]. 7. Exit of US Soda Ash Plants and Expected Increase in China's Export Share - As the price of soda ash falls, the export window opens. In 2025, the average monthly export of soda ash was over 180,000 tons, and it is expected that the high - level export of soda ash will continue in 2026. The top five trading partners are Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Malaysia, accounting for 37% of the total export volume. China's main export regions are Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hebei, and the export volume from Qinghai and Inner Mongolia has increased significantly. The exit of a US soda ash manufacturer will increase China's export share in the overseas market, especially in Southeast Asia [35]. 8. Weak Raw Material Prices and Slight Decline in Cost Range - In February, the price of sea salt was stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upwards, and the cost increased. The price of by - product ammonium chloride increased significantly. As of February 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 90.15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 1.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 95.38%. The price of thermal coal strengthened, the supply and demand of domestic thermal coal were both weak, and the market trading was light. The price of ammonium chloride increased, and the supply enterprises advanced production conservatively. The coke market price remained stable [40]. Part Three: Glass Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the main glass contract FG2605 weakened. The FG05 contract fluctuated between 1037 - 1120 yuan/ton, with a lower price range. The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of glass narrowed, ending at - 97 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 11 yuan/ton. The basis between the main glass contract and the spot price in Shahe was - 40 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 10 yuan/ton. The spot prices of glass manufacturers in Hubei and Shahe remained basically unchanged [45]. 2. Slight Decrease in Float Glass Supply and Attention to Carbon Emission Statements in the Two Sessions - As of the end of the month, the daily melting capacity of float glass was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons compared to the beginning of the month. There were 296 glass production lines in China (with a daily melting capacity of 199,500 tons) after excluding zombie production lines, of which 209 were in production and 87 were shut down for cold repair. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions. Environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. It is expected that the glass supply in 2026 will decrease by 8.2% year - on - year to 52.93 million tons, equivalent to a daily melting capacity of 145,000 tons [47]. 3. Glass Demand May Be Weaker than Expected - In February, the average weekly apparent demand for glass was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. After the Spring Festival, the domestic float glass market was quiet. Most downstream processing plants were shut down and planned to resume work after the Lantern Festival, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory structure, the glass inventory increased by 45% to 76 million heavy boxes in February, with significant inventory accumulation in North China and Central China. It is expected that the glass demand in 2026 will be 51.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. The continued decline of the real estate market has a significant negative impact on glass demand, while the demand for home - decoration glass remains stable, and the demand for automotive glass shows resilience [52]. 4. Further Relaxation of Purchase Restrictions in Shanghai and Urban Renewal as the Future Focus - The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market. The further relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shanghai will have a siphon effect on second - and third - tier cities, increasing the differentiation and having little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. The recovery of the real estate market will be slow and complex, and the completion data in 2026 is expected to hover at a low level. The future recovery will depend more on the long - term improvement of the real estate market, such as the continuous recovery of the sales market and the improvement of the self - financing ability of real estate enterprises [56]. 5. Decrease in Soda Ash Price and Increase in Glass Cost - As of February 26, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 142.26 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24.29 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 30.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 43.93 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is oscillating weakly [1] Core View of the Report - Currently, soda ash production is increasing, demand is average, and the purchasing willingness is weak. With the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there may be a rebound due to interest - rate cut news, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed lower, showing a weakening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened wide, indicating a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 210,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 30,978 lots. The highest price was 1228, the lowest was 1185, and the closing price was 1193, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market was stable with oscillations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably with few overhauls, and production remained at a high level. Downstream purchasing sentiment was average, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and mainly low - price replenishment [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from 84.39% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 0.66% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 2,300 tons or 0.15%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 837,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,431,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,390 tons or 10.06% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the water - cooling and cold - repair of glass production lines [3][4] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to increased costs [4] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Recently, a glass production line started production, and the cold - repair rhythm slowed down, resulting in a slight recovery of the rigid demand for soda ash. Additionally, there is some short - term support under continuous losses. Overall, with increasing soda ash production, average demand, weak purchasing willingness, and the cooling of the previous market sentiment, the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Although it may rebound due to interest - rate cut news, considering the intensified industrial contradiction of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accumulating inventory, it is still advisable to adopt a high - selling strategy on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash shows a significant increase, with the main contract rising to 1243.00 yuan/ton, up 5.16% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the spot market, manufacturers maintain stable pricing while traders see a slight increase, with the price in the Shahe region rising to 1150 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 13 yuan/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a weakening in spot prices, with increased maintenance intentions from soda ash producers leading to a month-on-month decline in production; however, long-term supply pressure remains due to new capacity coming online [2] - Demand continues to decline overall, with expectations of a gradual recovery in market supply as industry maintenance concludes; inventory is likely to face phase accumulation pressure [2] - The float glass sector's supply-demand fundamentals remain weak, with no substantial recovery observed in the real estate sector [2] Market Outlook - The float glass production has slightly decreased, and inventory levels are declining; however, the market in East China remains stable with companies primarily focused on maintaining prices [2] - The domestic soda ash market is expected to show weak and stable adjustments, with high supply levels persisting and downstream demand remaining lukewarm, leading to a focus on demand-based inventory replenishment [2] - Soda ash manufacturers are experiencing high inventory levels, and the spot market performance is generally average, with expectations of slight strong fluctuations in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market continues to show a strong trend, with the main contract reaching 1192.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 2.05% [1] Industry Summary - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 0.005 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.33% [2] - The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.386 million tons (including some external warehouse inventories), which is an increase of 0.012 million tons from December 11, with a growth rate of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Among this, the heavy soda ash inventory is 644,000 tons, which has decreased by 0.002 million tons, a decline of 0.3% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, the soda ash market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure that is difficult to resolve quickly. Although cost support is gradually emerging, the driving force remains limited. Without significant changes in the supply-demand structure, prices are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a cautious approach recommended towards rebound trends [4] - According to Wukuang Futures, as enterprises resume production and new capacity in the Alashan region is expected to be released, market supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with procurement mainly focused on just-in-time inventory replenishment, leading to low stocking willingness. Additionally, increased cold repairs in glass production lines further suppress demand for soda ash. In the short term, without significant positive stimuli, soda ash prices are expected to remain under pressure [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current soda ash market sentiment is poor, and prices may run weakly. However, the absolute valuation of soda ash is not high. As the load and inventory gradually decline, the room for further price decline may be limited [6]. - The improvement in the light soda ash market and the decline in soda ash load have partially alleviated the downward trend of the near - term contract, but the continuous weakness on the demand side may suppress the driving force for prices to continue to strengthen. The impact of the main contract roll - over on the price spread should be monitored, and in the short term, it is more likely to continue the volatile adjustment [10]. - In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profits may become the norm due to the continuous rise in costs [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - This week, the main 01 contract of soda ash weakened and fell below the recent phased low, with the price center of gravity moving down again. As of Thursday's close, the 01 contract of soda ash finally closed at 1,158 yuan/ton [6]. Spot Market - Recently, the price of light soda ash has been relatively firm, while the price of heavy soda ash has continued to be weakly stable, with downstream demand mainly for rigid restocking. As of Thursday, the closing price of the 2601 contract of soda ash was 1,158 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,210 - 1,320 yuan/ton, about 1,260 - 1,320 yuan/ton in East China, and about 1,230 - 1,320 yuan/ton in Central China. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,180 yuan/ton, about 1,250 yuan/ton in North China, and about 1,150 yuan/ton in Central China [8]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the basis of the 01 contract in each region has strengthened month - on - month. As of Thursday, the basis of the 01 contract of heavy soda ash in North China was about 142 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton in Central China. In terms of spread, as of Thursday, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of soda ash was - 74 yuan/ton, with a narrow month - on - month adjustment [10]. Production Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to decline compared with last week. As of November 20, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the utilization rate of ammonia - soda production capacity was about 89.77%, a decrease of 1.08% compared with last week; the utilization rate of combined - soda production capacity was about 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12]. Production and Shipment - In terms of production, as of November 20, the soda ash output was about 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 324,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was about 396,200 tons, a decrease of about 14,700 tons. In terms of shipment, as of November 20, the shipment volume of domestic soda ash enterprises was about 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was about 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [15]. Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash continued to improve month - on - month, and the apparent demand for light soda ash continued to rise month - on - month [17]. Glass Industry - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly month - on - month. This week, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,110,200 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 79.03%, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous period. As of November 20, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 89,380 tons per day, unchanged from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 68.35%. This week, the kiln - blocking volume was relatively stable, with the actual kiln - blocking volume at about 820 tons per day [20]. - The inventory of float glass increased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million heavy boxes, an increase of 56,000 heavy boxes from the previous period, a rise of about 0.09%, equivalent to 27.7 days of inventory, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The factory inventory in Hubei was about 6.14 million heavy boxes, an increase of 250,000 heavy boxes from last week. The inventory of float glass traders in Shahe decreased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the inventory of traders in Shahe was about 4.24 million weight boxes, a decrease of 240,000 weight boxes from last week. The factory inventory in Shahe continued to increase month - on - month. As of November 20, the factory inventory in Shahe was about 4.636 million weight boxes, an increase of 225,600 weight boxes from last week [22][26]. - In terms of float glass maintenance, the cold - repair loss increased slightly from the previous period this week. As of November 20, the national float glass loss was about 288,930 tons. In terms of profit performance, the industry profit has continued to weaken month - on - month recently. As of November 20, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 206.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about 26.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.19 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period [31]. Inventory - The inventory of the soda ash industry decreased slightly compared with the data on Monday. As of November 20, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of about 7,300 tons from Monday, a decline of about 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was about 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was about 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons [33]. Industry Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to fluctuate narrowly. As of November 20, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - soda process soda ash was about - 153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.5 yuan/ton from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 38.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period [36].

Core Viewpoint - The overall production load of soda ash manufacturers is low due to maintenance activities, leading to a mixed performance between light and heavy soda ash prices [1] Group 1: Production and Maintenance - Several manufacturers, including Fengcheng Salt Chemical, Xiangyu Salt Chemical, and China Salt Kunshan, are undergoing maintenance, resulting in reduced production capacity [1] - Key soda ash production facilities in Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Huainan are also experiencing maintenance, contributing to the overall low operational load [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - The demand for light soda ash remains stable, with tight supply in the central and eastern regions, leading to a strong pricing sentiment among manufacturers [1] - Most manufacturers have filled their orders for the month, indicating a robust market for light soda ash [1] - In contrast, the demand for heavy soda ash is weak, with futures prices declining and a noticeable price advantage for futures sources, resulting in increased transaction volumes for heavy soda ash [1] - The transaction price focus for heavy soda ash has shifted downward due to these market dynamics [1]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical industry showed a mostly positive trend, with soda ash futures experiencing a slight increase in price, indicating a stable yet cautious market outlook for the sector [1] Supply - Last week, some production lines reduced output, with Jiangsu Debang and Ningxia Risheng undergoing maintenance, and a planned maintenance for Zhongyan Kunshan in December. Overall, soda ash production decreased by 10,800 tons week-on-week [1] Demand - Downstream demand for soda ash remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with moderate low-price stock replenishment. The production capacity for float glass and photovoltaic glass slightly declined, indicating limited fluctuations in overall essential consumption [1] Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in domestic manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 0.47%. Light soda ash inventory was 797,700 tons, down by 1,690 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory was 908,500 tons, up by 890 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see narrow upward movement in soda ash prices, with light soda ash prices slightly increasing. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory levels are likely to continue at elevated levels. The production capacity for photovoltaic glass is stable, while four production lines for float glass have recently been shut down, leading to reduced demand for heavy soda ash. Attention is drawn to the potential continuation of price increases for light soda ash and the willingness of downstream sectors to replenish stocks, with expectations that soda ash prices are unlikely to drop in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both light and heavy soda ash showing significant declines compared to previous periods [1] Price Trends - As of September 3, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in China is 1,223 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 25.1% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average terminal price of heavy soda ash is 1,308 yuan/ton, showing a 3.5% decrease month-on-month and a 24.2% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Operations - The summer maintenance of soda ash production facilities has largely concluded, leading to a gradual increase in industry operating rates [1] - Despite the increase in operating rates, many manufacturers are currently operating at a loss due to the weak market prices [1] Market Sentiment - The futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The short-term outlook for the domestic soda ash spot market remains under pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of the glass industry are currently weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season. For the soda ash industry, the fundamentals have not improved, and it will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. - For soda ash, the industry pattern has not significantly improved. Supply - side production has rebounded and remained at a high level, while demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short - term upstream inventory has increased again, and the absolute inventory level is high, which is difficult to provide sufficient support based on fundamentals. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and coal price fluctuations. For glass, the fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange recently. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [4][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - This week, the spot price slightly decreased, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas in North China and East China saw price drops in heavy soda ash. The national market prices of heavy and light soda ash both slightly decreased. The futures price was stable with a slight upward trend. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [5][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the production of soda ash increased, with both light and heavy soda ash production rising. The overall operating rate increased, with the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process slightly decreasing and that of the co - production process increasing significantly [4][13]. 3.1.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises increased, and the overall production - sales rate increased. However, the demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid needs. Next week, the demand for float glass is expected to increase slightly, while that for photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. The net export volume decreased in June [4][21]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises increased slightly. The inventory of light soda ash increased, while that of heavy soda ash decreased [4][29]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of the co - production method (double - ton) and the ammonia - soda method both decreased slightly [4][33]. 3.1.6 Strategy - The soda ash industry pattern has not improved significantly. Supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and coal price fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - The spot price was stable with a slight decrease. The futures price of the main 2601 contract increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [37][42]. 3.2.2 Supply - Last week, the daily output and weekly output of float glass remained unchanged. The operating rate increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged. There were 223 production lines in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut - down lines [36][47]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of mid - August, the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, but the downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate end - stage recovery was weak, and the new - construction willingness at the front - end was low. In July, the production and sales of automobiles decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year and were at a relatively high level in recent years [36][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 2.55% month - on - month, and inventories in all regions increased to varying degrees [36][63]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of float glass produced by coal - gas, natural gas, and petroleum coke all decreased slightly [36][77]. 3.2.6 Strategy - The fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [36].