机构观点 建信期货：整体来看，纯碱市场短期仍处于供强需弱的格局之中，高库存压力难以快速化解，成本支撑虽逐步显现，但驱动有限。在供需结构未 发生明显转变前，预计盘面价格将继续在低位区间震荡磨底，操作上建议以观望为主，谨慎对待反弹行情，关注后续供需边际变化与政策端动 向。 12月18日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格稳定，轻质纯碱报价出厂1380-1400元。江苏井神化工纯碱装置减量，价格稳定，轻质报价出厂 1300元/吨。 截止到2025年12月18日，本周国内纯碱厂家总库存149.93万吨，较上周四增加0.50万吨，涨幅0.33%。 12月18日国内纯碱企业库存总量在138.6万吨(含部分厂家外库库存)，较12月11日库存增加1.2万吨，增幅0.9%，同比下降12.4%，其中重碱库存 64.4万吨，较12月11日库存下降0.2万吨，降幅0.3%。 12月18日，纯碱期货延续偏强走势，截至发稿主力合约报1192.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.05%。 【消息面汇总】 五矿期货：随着检修企业陆续复产，加上阿拉善地区新增产能释放预期升温，市场供应压力逐步凸显。下游需求尚未出现明显好转，采购仍以刚 需补库为主，整体备货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current soda ash market sentiment is poor, and prices may run weakly. However, the absolute valuation of soda ash is not high. As the load and inventory gradually decline, the room for further price decline may be limited [6]. - The improvement in the light soda ash market and the decline in soda ash load have partially alleviated the downward trend of the near - term contract, but the continuous weakness on the demand side may suppress the driving force for prices to continue to strengthen. The impact of the main contract roll - over on the price spread should be monitored, and in the short term, it is more likely to continue the volatile adjustment [10]. - In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profits may become the norm due to the continuous rise in costs [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - This week, the main 01 contract of soda ash weakened and fell below the recent phased low, with the price center of gravity moving down again. As of Thursday's close, the 01 contract of soda ash finally closed at 1,158 yuan/ton [6]. Spot Market - Recently, the price of light soda ash has been relatively firm, while the price of heavy soda ash has continued to be weakly stable, with downstream demand mainly for rigid restocking. As of Thursday, the closing price of the 2601 contract of soda ash was 1,158 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,210 - 1,320 yuan/ton, about 1,260 - 1,320 yuan/ton in East China, and about 1,230 - 1,320 yuan/ton in Central China. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,180 yuan/ton, about 1,250 yuan/ton in North China, and about 1,150 yuan/ton in Central China [8]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the basis of the 01 contract in each region has strengthened month - on - month. As of Thursday, the basis of the 01 contract of heavy soda ash in North China was about 142 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton in Central China. In terms of spread, as of Thursday, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of soda ash was - 74 yuan/ton, with a narrow month - on - month adjustment [10]. Production Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to decline compared with last week. As of November 20, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the utilization rate of ammonia - soda production capacity was about 89.77%, a decrease of 1.08% compared with last week; the utilization rate of combined - soda production capacity was about 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12]. Production and Shipment - In terms of production, as of November 20, the soda ash output was about 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 324,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was about 396,200 tons, a decrease of about 14,700 tons. In terms of shipment, as of November 20, the shipment volume of domestic soda ash enterprises was about 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was about 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [15]. Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash continued to improve month - on - month, and the apparent demand for light soda ash continued to rise month - on - month [17]. Glass Industry - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly month - on - month. This week, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,110,200 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 79.03%, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous period. As of November 20, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 89,380 tons per day, unchanged from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 68.35%. This week, the kiln - blocking volume was relatively stable, with the actual kiln - blocking volume at about 820 tons per day [20]. - The inventory of float glass increased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million heavy boxes, an increase of 56,000 heavy boxes from the previous period, a rise of about 0.09%, equivalent to 27.7 days of inventory, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The factory inventory in Hubei was about 6.14 million heavy boxes, an increase of 250,000 heavy boxes from last week. The inventory of float glass traders in Shahe decreased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the inventory of traders in Shahe was about 4.24 million weight boxes, a decrease of 240,000 weight boxes from last week. The factory inventory in Shahe continued to increase month - on - month. As of November 20, the factory inventory in Shahe was about 4.636 million weight boxes, an increase of 225,600 weight boxes from last week [22][26]. - In terms of float glass maintenance, the cold - repair loss increased slightly from the previous period this week. As of November 20, the national float glass loss was about 288,930 tons. In terms of profit performance, the industry profit has continued to weaken month - on - month recently. As of November 20, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 206.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about 26.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.19 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period [31]. Inventory - The inventory of the soda ash industry decreased slightly compared with the data on Monday. As of November 20, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of about 7,300 tons from Monday, a decline of about 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was about 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was about 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons [33]. Industry Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to fluctuate narrowly. As of November 20, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - soda process soda ash was about - 153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.5 yuan/ton from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 38.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period [36].

Core Viewpoint - The overall production load of soda ash manufacturers is low due to maintenance activities, leading to a mixed performance between light and heavy soda ash prices [1] Group 1: Production and Maintenance - Several manufacturers, including Fengcheng Salt Chemical, Xiangyu Salt Chemical, and China Salt Kunshan, are undergoing maintenance, resulting in reduced production capacity [1] - Key soda ash production facilities in Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Huainan are also experiencing maintenance, contributing to the overall low operational load [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - The demand for light soda ash remains stable, with tight supply in the central and eastern regions, leading to a strong pricing sentiment among manufacturers [1] - Most manufacturers have filled their orders for the month, indicating a robust market for light soda ash [1] - In contrast, the demand for heavy soda ash is weak, with futures prices declining and a noticeable price advantage for futures sources, resulting in increased transaction volumes for heavy soda ash [1] - The transaction price focus for heavy soda ash has shifted downward due to these market dynamics [1]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical industry showed a mostly positive trend, with soda ash futures experiencing a slight increase in price, indicating a stable yet cautious market outlook for the sector [1] Supply - Last week, some production lines reduced output, with Jiangsu Debang and Ningxia Risheng undergoing maintenance, and a planned maintenance for Zhongyan Kunshan in December. Overall, soda ash production decreased by 10,800 tons week-on-week [1] Demand - Downstream demand for soda ash remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with moderate low-price stock replenishment. The production capacity for float glass and photovoltaic glass slightly declined, indicating limited fluctuations in overall essential consumption [1] Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in domestic manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 0.47%. Light soda ash inventory was 797,700 tons, down by 1,690 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory was 908,500 tons, up by 890 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see narrow upward movement in soda ash prices, with light soda ash prices slightly increasing. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory levels are likely to continue at elevated levels. The production capacity for photovoltaic glass is stable, while four production lines for float glass have recently been shut down, leading to reduced demand for heavy soda ash. Attention is drawn to the potential continuation of price increases for light soda ash and the willingness of downstream sectors to replenish stocks, with expectations that soda ash prices are unlikely to drop in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both light and heavy soda ash showing significant declines compared to previous periods [1] Price Trends - As of September 3, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in China is 1,223 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 25.1% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average terminal price of heavy soda ash is 1,308 yuan/ton, showing a 3.5% decrease month-on-month and a 24.2% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Operations - The summer maintenance of soda ash production facilities has largely concluded, leading to a gradual increase in industry operating rates [1] - Despite the increase in operating rates, many manufacturers are currently operating at a loss due to the weak market prices [1] Market Sentiment - The futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The short-term outlook for the domestic soda ash spot market remains under pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of the glass industry are currently weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season. For the soda ash industry, the fundamentals have not improved, and it will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. - For soda ash, the industry pattern has not significantly improved. Supply - side production has rebounded and remained at a high level, while demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short - term upstream inventory has increased again, and the absolute inventory level is high, which is difficult to provide sufficient support based on fundamentals. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and coal price fluctuations. For glass, the fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange recently. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [4][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - This week, the spot price slightly decreased, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas in North China and East China saw price drops in heavy soda ash. The national market prices of heavy and light soda ash both slightly decreased. The futures price was stable with a slight upward trend. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [5][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the production of soda ash increased, with both light and heavy soda ash production rising. The overall operating rate increased, with the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process slightly decreasing and that of the co - production process increasing significantly [4][13]. 3.1.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises increased, and the overall production - sales rate increased. However, the demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid needs. Next week, the demand for float glass is expected to increase slightly, while that for photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. The net export volume decreased in June [4][21]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises increased slightly. The inventory of light soda ash increased, while that of heavy soda ash decreased [4][29]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of the co - production method (double - ton) and the ammonia - soda method both decreased slightly [4][33]. 3.1.6 Strategy - The soda ash industry pattern has not improved significantly. Supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and coal price fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - The spot price was stable with a slight decrease. The futures price of the main 2601 contract increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [37][42]. 3.2.2 Supply - Last week, the daily output and weekly output of float glass remained unchanged. The operating rate increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged. There were 223 production lines in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut - down lines [36][47]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of mid - August, the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, but the downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate end - stage recovery was weak, and the new - construction willingness at the front - end was low. In July, the production and sales of automobiles decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year and were at a relatively high level in recent years [36][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 2.55% month - on - month, and inventories in all regions increased to varying degrees [36][63]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of float glass produced by coal - gas, natural gas, and petroleum coke all decreased slightly [36][77]. 3.2.6 Strategy - The fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [36].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is still recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation during the third - quarter maintenance season due to supply - side accidents or macro - policies, but there is limited room for rebound under overall supply pressure. By the end of the third quarter, with the end of annual maintenance, the soda ash industry will face significant inventory pressure, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies, but with light positions due to relatively low absolute prices [2][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash futures price rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down. Pre - holiday stocking in January improved enterprise orders, but price dropped after the holiday due to inventory accumulation. In late February, the price rose on maintenance expectations, then fell again in March due to poor downstream demand. In April, the market showed a negative feedback loop with an enlarged price decline. In May, increased maintenance led to a limited price rebound, and in June, new production capacity and reduced maintenance increased supply pressure and pushed the price down again [6]. - The basis of soda ash strengthened slightly in H1 2025 as the futures price dropped more than the spot price. The registered warehouse receipts of soda ash showed seasonal changes, with an absolute quantity higher than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread can be seasonally focused on before the 09 contract delivery [9]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - In 2025, new production capacity has been added, including Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Industry, and Hubei Shuanghuan. Future planned capacity includes Yuanxing Phase 2 and Xindu Chemical. The industry supply is still expanding, and there are long - term investment plans [12]. - The maintenance rhythm in 2025 is similar to last year. Maintenance in March and May led to a decline in production, but overall production remained high due to increased total capacity. In June, production was expected to continue increasing. The overall start - up rate in 2025 decreased slightly compared to last year, but the monthly average production exceeded 3 million tons. In July - August, the traditional maintenance season, the industry start - up rate will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the load reduction of existing capacity under low - profit conditions in the second half of the year [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Float Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased. As of June 30, it was 157,800 tons, and the glass production was 28.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. The glass market was in a pattern of inventory accumulation and price decline. With the current real - estate data, the construction side of the real - estate industry is unlikely to improve glass demand in the second half of the year. The new and cold - repaired production capacities of glass are expected to offset each other, but if demand remains weak, cold - repair willingness will increase. The rigid demand for soda ash from float glass may decrease slightly in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the possibility of glass factories restocking at low soda ash prices [26]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, but it was still lower than the same period last year. As of June 30, the daily melting volume was 94,000 tons, an increase of 10,250 tons from the beginning of the year. The downstream component factories' rush - to - install behavior in March increased the purchase of photovoltaic glass, but the new ignition speed slowed down later. In June, the daily melting volume began to decline marginally, and leading enterprises planned to cut production in July. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, and the daily melting volume at the end of the year may return to 83,000 - 85,000 tons or lower. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease year - on - year [34][36]. - **Light Soda Ash**: The downstream of light soda ash is scattered, mainly small factories, with obvious seasonal start - up characteristics. The demand is generally related to economic development, and the actual stocking sentiment is affected by price fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, the light soda ash market performed slightly better than the heavy soda ash market. In the long - term, with the expected macro - economic recovery, the demand for light soda ash may be boosted, but the overall increase may be limited [41]. - **Exports and Imports**: In the first half of 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import volume of 16,100 tons from January to May, a decrease of 97.7%. Exports increased significantly, with a cumulative export volume of 835,600 tons from January to May, an increase of 453,300 tons or 118.6%. Exports are mainly concentrated in Asian regions. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain low, and exports are expected to remain relatively high, with a significant year - on - year increase for the whole year [47][48]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories increased significantly. As of June 30, the inventory was 1.7688 million tons, a significant increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of middle and downstream is also not low. The inventory in delivery warehouses was about 230,000 tons at the beginning of July, and the inventory days of downstream glass factories were about 22 days, about 29 days including in - transit inventory. The soda ash industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year, with a limited accumulation rate in July - August due to maintenance and possible downstream restocking, but significant inventory pressure after the third quarter [50][51]. 3.5 Cost - profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, although the spot price of soda ash declined, the cost also decreased due to the fall in raw material prices, and soda ash factories still had a small profit, which supported a relatively high start - up rate. In the second half of the year, coal prices are expected to decline slightly, and the price of raw salt is expected to remain stable. The cost of soda ash may decline slightly. With the end of seasonal maintenance, the supply - demand pressure will reappear, and the spot price of soda ash is expected to decline, leading to a further decline in the profit of soda ash factories [62]. 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Supply**: In July - August, although there is still some maintenance, the industry start - up and production will remain at a high level. In September, with less maintenance, the start - up rate will increase significantly, and the supply pressure will be particularly obvious in the fourth quarter, and the high - inventory problem of upstream cannot be solved [66]. - **Demand**: The profit of float glass is low, and the daily melting volume is expected to decrease slightly in the second half of the year, reducing the demand for soda ash. Photovoltaic glass is also expected to reduce its daily melting volume due to inventory pressure, and the demand for soda ash will decrease year - on - year. The downstream of light soda ash is affected by the macro - economy, and some downstream enterprises face inventory and profit pressure [66]. - **Overall**: The downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation, but there is limited room for rebound. After the third - quarter maintenance, significant inventory pressure will emerge, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies with light positions [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current soda ash market has sufficient supply and weak demand. The two major downstream industries, float glass and photovoltaic glass, are in a difficult situation, with inventory on the rise. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and soda ash prices may still face downward pressure in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 25, 2025, for the soda ash 2508 contract, the latest price was 1171, up 3 with a 0.26% increase, the open interest was 11699, down 29, and the trading volume was 2655. Its opening price was 1166, the highest was 1173, the lowest was 1159, and the settlement price was 1166 [4]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the latest price was 1166, up 1 with a 0.09% increase, the open interest was 1561404, down 7874, and the trading volume was 953401. Its opening price was 1158, the highest was 1168, the lowest was 1152, and the settlement price was 1160 [4]. - For the soda ash 2601 contract, the latest price was 1159, up 2 with a 0.17% increase, the open interest was 557916, up 2848, and the trading volume was 125828. Its opening price was 1150, the highest was 1160, the lowest was 1146, and the settlement price was 1154 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On June 25, domestic soda ash enterprises' quotes remained at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of light soda ash was around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream delivered price of heavy soda ash to end - users was about 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply**: Since June, the weekly output of soda ash has remained above 700,000 tons, with significant supply pressure. Although some plants have maintenance plans in the medium - term approaching summer, there are few new maintenance plans in the short term, and the overall supply is at a high level [5]. - **Demand**: The involution in the photovoltaic glass industry has led to production cuts. The price rebound of float glass is based on the expectation of supply tightening. Whether the unplanned cold repairs are realized or not, it is unfavorable for the demand of soda ash. In addition, in the demand for light soda ash, the support from lithium carbonate and daily - use glass is limited, and the substitution ratio of caustic soda is less than 5%, with limited incremental demand. Overall, the demand recovery of downstream industries for soda ash is weak, and procurement is mostly for rigid needs, with a cautious market performance [5]. - **Macro - level**: There are signs of easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the overnight crude oil futures price has declined. Although the State Council executive meeting has made targeted arrangements for the real estate market recently, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is still declining without an obvious turning point, and its role in driving the demand for the glass industry downstream of soda ash is not clear [5][6].