Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both light and heavy soda ash showing significant declines compared to previous periods [1] Price Trends - As of September 3, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in China is 1,223 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 25.1% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average terminal price of heavy soda ash is 1,308 yuan/ton, showing a 3.5% decrease month-on-month and a 24.2% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Operations - The summer maintenance of soda ash production facilities has largely concluded, leading to a gradual increase in industry operating rates [1] - Despite the increase in operating rates, many manufacturers are currently operating at a loss due to the weak market prices [1] Market Sentiment - The futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The short-term outlook for the domestic soda ash spot market remains under pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of the glass industry are currently weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season. For the soda ash industry, the fundamentals have not improved, and it will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. - For soda ash, the industry pattern has not significantly improved. Supply - side production has rebounded and remained at a high level, while demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short - term upstream inventory has increased again, and the absolute inventory level is high, which is difficult to provide sufficient support based on fundamentals. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and coal price fluctuations. For glass, the fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange recently. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [4][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - This week, the spot price slightly decreased, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas in North China and East China saw price drops in heavy soda ash. The national market prices of heavy and light soda ash both slightly decreased. The futures price was stable with a slight upward trend. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [5][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the production of soda ash increased, with both light and heavy soda ash production rising. The overall operating rate increased, with the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process slightly decreasing and that of the co - production process increasing significantly [4][13]. 3.1.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises increased, and the overall production - sales rate increased. However, the demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid needs. Next week, the demand for float glass is expected to increase slightly, while that for photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. The net export volume decreased in June [4][21]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises increased slightly. The inventory of light soda ash increased, while that of heavy soda ash decreased [4][29]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of the co - production method (double - ton) and the ammonia - soda method both decreased slightly [4][33]. 3.1.6 Strategy - The soda ash industry pattern has not improved significantly. Supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and coal price fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - The spot price was stable with a slight decrease. The futures price of the main 2601 contract increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [37][42]. 3.2.2 Supply - Last week, the daily output and weekly output of float glass remained unchanged. The operating rate increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged. There were 223 production lines in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut - down lines [36][47]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of mid - August, the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, but the downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate end - stage recovery was weak, and the new - construction willingness at the front - end was low. In July, the production and sales of automobiles decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year and were at a relatively high level in recent years [36][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 2.55% month - on - month, and inventories in all regions increased to varying degrees [36][63]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of float glass produced by coal - gas, natural gas, and petroleum coke all decreased slightly [36][77]. 3.2.6 Strategy - The fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [36].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is still recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation during the third - quarter maintenance season due to supply - side accidents or macro - policies, but there is limited room for rebound under overall supply pressure. By the end of the third quarter, with the end of annual maintenance, the soda ash industry will face significant inventory pressure, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies, but with light positions due to relatively low absolute prices [2][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash futures price rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down. Pre - holiday stocking in January improved enterprise orders, but price dropped after the holiday due to inventory accumulation. In late February, the price rose on maintenance expectations, then fell again in March due to poor downstream demand. In April, the market showed a negative feedback loop with an enlarged price decline. In May, increased maintenance led to a limited price rebound, and in June, new production capacity and reduced maintenance increased supply pressure and pushed the price down again [6]. - The basis of soda ash strengthened slightly in H1 2025 as the futures price dropped more than the spot price. The registered warehouse receipts of soda ash showed seasonal changes, with an absolute quantity higher than the same period last year. The 9 - 1 spread can be seasonally focused on before the 09 contract delivery [9]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - In 2025, new production capacity has been added, including Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali Industry, and Hubei Shuanghuan. Future planned capacity includes Yuanxing Phase 2 and Xindu Chemical. The industry supply is still expanding, and there are long - term investment plans [12]. - The maintenance rhythm in 2025 is similar to last year. Maintenance in March and May led to a decline in production, but overall production remained high due to increased total capacity. In June, production was expected to continue increasing. The overall start - up rate in 2025 decreased slightly compared to last year, but the monthly average production exceeded 3 million tons. In July - August, the traditional maintenance season, the industry start - up rate will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the load reduction of existing capacity under low - profit conditions in the second half of the year [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Float Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased. As of June 30, it was 157,800 tons, and the glass production was 28.409 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. The glass market was in a pattern of inventory accumulation and price decline. With the current real - estate data, the construction side of the real - estate industry is unlikely to improve glass demand in the second half of the year. The new and cold - repaired production capacities of glass are expected to offset each other, but if demand remains weak, cold - repair willingness will increase. The rigid demand for soda ash from float glass may decrease slightly in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the possibility of glass factories restocking at low soda ash prices [26]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In the first half of 2025, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, but it was still lower than the same period last year. As of June 30, the daily melting volume was 94,000 tons, an increase of 10,250 tons from the beginning of the year. The downstream component factories' rush - to - install behavior in March increased the purchase of photovoltaic glass, but the new ignition speed slowed down later. In June, the daily melting volume began to decline marginally, and leading enterprises planned to cut production in July. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, and the daily melting volume at the end of the year may return to 83,000 - 85,000 tons or lower. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease year - on - year [34][36]. - **Light Soda Ash**: The downstream of light soda ash is scattered, mainly small factories, with obvious seasonal start - up characteristics. The demand is generally related to economic development, and the actual stocking sentiment is affected by price fluctuations. In the first half of 2025, the light soda ash market performed slightly better than the heavy soda ash market. In the long - term, with the expected macro - economic recovery, the demand for light soda ash may be boosted, but the overall increase may be limited [41]. - **Exports and Imports**: In the first half of 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, with a cumulative import volume of 16,100 tons from January to May, a decrease of 97.7%. Exports increased significantly, with a cumulative export volume of 835,600 tons from January to May, an increase of 453,300 tons or 118.6%. Exports are mainly concentrated in Asian regions. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain low, and exports are expected to remain relatively high, with a significant year - on - year increase for the whole year [47][48]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories increased significantly. As of June 30, the inventory was 1.7688 million tons, a significant increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of middle and downstream is also not low. The inventory in delivery warehouses was about 230,000 tons at the beginning of July, and the inventory days of downstream glass factories were about 22 days, about 29 days including in - transit inventory. The soda ash industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year, with a limited accumulation rate in July - August due to maintenance and possible downstream restocking, but significant inventory pressure after the third quarter [50][51]. 3.5 Cost - profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, although the spot price of soda ash declined, the cost also decreased due to the fall in raw material prices, and soda ash factories still had a small profit, which supported a relatively high start - up rate. In the second half of the year, coal prices are expected to decline slightly, and the price of raw salt is expected to remain stable. The cost of soda ash may decline slightly. With the end of seasonal maintenance, the supply - demand pressure will reappear, and the spot price of soda ash is expected to decline, leading to a further decline in the profit of soda ash factories [62]. 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Supply**: In July - August, although there is still some maintenance, the industry start - up and production will remain at a high level. In September, with less maintenance, the start - up rate will increase significantly, and the supply pressure will be particularly obvious in the fourth quarter, and the high - inventory problem of upstream cannot be solved [66]. - **Demand**: The profit of float glass is low, and the daily melting volume is expected to decrease slightly in the second half of the year, reducing the demand for soda ash. Photovoltaic glass is also expected to reduce its daily melting volume due to inventory pressure, and the demand for soda ash will decrease year - on - year. The downstream of light soda ash is affected by the macro - economy, and some downstream enterprises face inventory and profit pressure [66]. - **Overall**: The downward trend of soda ash remains unchanged, and a bearish approach is recommended. High upstream inventory and concentrated inventory distribution may lead to short - term price stimulation, but there is limited room for rebound. After the third - quarter maintenance, significant inventory pressure will emerge, and it may be advisable to short the 01 contract on price rallies with light positions [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current soda ash market has sufficient supply and weak demand. The two major downstream industries, float glass and photovoltaic glass, are in a difficult situation, with inventory on the rise. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and soda ash prices may still face downward pressure in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 25, 2025, for the soda ash 2508 contract, the latest price was 1171, up 3 with a 0.26% increase, the open interest was 11699, down 29, and the trading volume was 2655. Its opening price was 1166, the highest was 1173, the lowest was 1159, and the settlement price was 1166 [4]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the latest price was 1166, up 1 with a 0.09% increase, the open interest was 1561404, down 7874, and the trading volume was 953401. Its opening price was 1158, the highest was 1168, the lowest was 1152, and the settlement price was 1160 [4]. - For the soda ash 2601 contract, the latest price was 1159, up 2 with a 0.17% increase, the open interest was 557916, up 2848, and the trading volume was 125828. Its opening price was 1150, the highest was 1160, the lowest was 1146, and the settlement price was 1154 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On June 25, domestic soda ash enterprises' quotes remained at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of light soda ash was around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream delivered price of heavy soda ash to end - users was about 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply**: Since June, the weekly output of soda ash has remained above 700,000 tons, with significant supply pressure. Although some plants have maintenance plans in the medium - term approaching summer, there are few new maintenance plans in the short term, and the overall supply is at a high level [5]. - **Demand**: The involution in the photovoltaic glass industry has led to production cuts. The price rebound of float glass is based on the expectation of supply tightening. Whether the unplanned cold repairs are realized or not, it is unfavorable for the demand of soda ash. In addition, in the demand for light soda ash, the support from lithium carbonate and daily - use glass is limited, and the substitution ratio of caustic soda is less than 5%, with limited incremental demand. Overall, the demand recovery of downstream industries for soda ash is weak, and procurement is mostly for rigid needs, with a cautious market performance [5]. - **Macro - level**: There are signs of easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the overnight crude oil futures price has declined. Although the State Council executive meeting has made targeted arrangements for the real estate market recently, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is still declining without an obvious turning point, and its role in driving the demand for the glass industry downstream of soda ash is not clear [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, fuel prices, production costs/profits, related products, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report explores soda ash valuation from these aspects [4][39]. - The basis of soda ash mostly depends on the premium of futures prices, but at the beginning of a large - scale rising market, the spot has better initiative. In the middle and late stages of the market and during the decline, the futures' initiative is more obvious. When the basis is relatively stable, market contradictions are clear and not intense, which is the current situation [4][39]. - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand relationships (or inventory). Currently, it is flattening from a steep contango structure, which is due to bearish sentiment in the far - month contracts, indicating weakness [4][39]. - The transmission of fuel prices to soda ash prices requires significant price fluctuations, such as in 2021. Currently, fuel price fluctuations are small, so the impact on soda ash prices is limited [4][39]. - From the cost/profit perspective, soda ash is currently in a low - profit state, and there have been losses in the past six months, but it has not significantly affected cash - flow costs, and enterprise开工 has not changed much. In this state of low profit and high production, it is difficult to see a reversal in soda ash [4][39]. - From the prices of light and heavy soda ash, ammonium chloride, and glass, the price of soda ash is at a relatively low level in history. Whether it will turn around in the future depends on supply - demand [4][39]. - Valuation ultimately affects supply - demand. Only when there is a transmission from valuation to production and then to inventory can the significance of valuation be reflected. If soda ash maintains high production under low prices and low profits, the valuation has not reached the point of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change" [5][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Valuation 1.1 Definition - The valuation of commodities is the process of assessing their intrinsic value in a specific market environment and economic conditions. It is a complex evaluation system based on current information and future expectations. For stocks, different types of price - earnings ratios are used for valuation, and for commodities, valuation is more "practical" as high or low valuations will be corrected by the market through trade, etc. [10] 1.2 Soda Ash Valuation - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, production costs, production profits, substitutes, complements, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report focuses on basis, price structure, raw material prices of different processes, production costs and profits, price differences between heavy and light soda ash, ammonium chloride prices, and glass prices [11] 2 Soda Ash Valuation Analysis 2.1 Basis - The basis of soda ash has high elasticity, which is related to the increasing concentration of the soda ash industry. During large price fluctuations, the spot price is rigid, and the basis expands. In the rising process, the spot follows the price increase actively, and at the beginning of the rise, the spot is stronger than the futures. In the decline, the spot is more resistant to price drops, and the futures decline more than the spot. With more spot - futures traders in the industry, the basis fluctuation is expected to converge. When the basis fluctuates within a narrow range, the fundamentals of soda ash are more transparent [12][13] 2.2 Price Structure - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand and inventory changes. In the past year and a half, it has changed from a backwardation structure to a contango structure. Recently, the monthly spread has been in a positive - carry situation, with the near - month contracts showing some resistance to price drops, and the market's bearish sentiment mainly reflected in the far - month contracts [17][20] 2.3 Raw Material Prices - Soda ash has three production processes: the combined soda process, the ammonia - soda process, and the natural - soda process. In the ammonia - soda and combined soda processes, raw material and fuel costs account for a relatively high proportion. The price of soda ash is highly correlated with raw salt and fuel prices, but it is more sensitive to fuel price fluctuations. Only in extreme market conditions will soda ash prices react synchronously to raw material or fuel price changes [23] 2.4 Cost and Profit - The total cost of soda ash provides a "floor" for the price. Enterprises may adjust production according to cost/profit, but it is not always the case. Using profit to estimate the price of soda ash is more effective, and the combination of "profit + production" is more meaningful for price judgment [24] 2.5 Related Products - Light and heavy soda ash, as two physical forms of soda ash, have a high degree of price linkage and a reasonable price difference. The price difference is mainly due to processing and logistics costs. Price transmission is a two - way dynamic balance, and in special cases, the price difference may break through the reasonable range [27] 2.6 By - products - The combined soda process produces ammonium chloride as a by - product. There is a certain correlation between the prices of soda ash and ammonium chloride. When the price of soda ash is high, the price of ammonium chloride has more room for fluctuation, and when the price of soda ash is low, the cost of soda ash is more dependent on the price of ammonium chloride. If the demand for ammonium chloride is suppressed, it may increase the cost pressure of soda ash [30][31][34] 2.7 Upstream and Downstream Products - The downstream of soda ash is relatively concentrated, with glass demand accounting for about 73%. There is a price correlation between soda ash and glass. The price fluctuation of soda ash will be transmitted to glass through cost - push, but there are constraints. The reverse transmission is also significant, and in special situations, the price relationship between the two may decouple [35][37] 3 Main Conclusions - The conclusions are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the relationship between soda ash valuation and various factors, the current situation of basis, price structure, the impact of fuel prices, cost/profit status, and the role of supply - demand in future price trends [39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices have deviated from the moving - average system. This week, focus on its effectiveness as the basis for whether the defense is lifted [5] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel has started to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach can be taken on dips [8] - Due to news disturbances, coking coal and coke will rebound from oversold levels at low positions [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly oscillate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Dongguan Zhongliang's imported third - grade rapeseed oil is priced at 9,260 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Soybean meal spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,206 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,413 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton; at Bayuquan Port, it is 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 78,990 yuan, up 460 yuan, with a premium of flat - 150 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - The iron ore Platts index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole - latex 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 14,950 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: RSS3 63.87 Thai baht/kg, latex 56.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 49.5 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 60.5 Thai baht/kg [12] - The mainstream spot price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 320 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged [13] - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [14] Market Analysis - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed one after another. In the near term, the supply of imported rapeseed is abundant, while in the long term, it is relatively tight. The downstream demand for rapeseed oil is neutral, and the inventory may remain high in the short and medium term [2] - Soybean meal: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions still exist. Tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for international soybean prices. The sowing of US soybeans is going smoothly, and it is the peak export period for Brazilian soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the supply pressure of soybean meal is becoming prominent, the trading volume is shrinking, and the downstream purchasing intention is weak [3] - Corn: The weather in US corn - producing areas is favorable for sowing and growth. The Sino - US trade relationship has eased, and there are concerns about long - term import pressure. In China, the corn market is in the off - season between old and new grains, the supply may be tight, wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather speculation will affect prices. The downstream demand is weak [4] - Copper: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts this year. Global tariff confrontations continue, and China's support policies are boosting market sentiment. On the industrial side, raw material disturbances are intensifying, and domestic copper inventories are declining [5] - Lithium carbonate: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is still high, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is changing. The prices of spot and futures are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [6] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, the valuation is relatively low, the cost is dynamically changing, the inventory is at a low level, and the short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Coking coal and coke: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] - Iron ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. The supply has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, the overseas demand is differentiated, and news factors are suppressing the upward space [10] - Crude oil: The US - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, the Russia - Ukraine war has intensified, and the OPEC+ meeting has agreed to increase production in July, but there are objections. The supply may shrink, and the global demand is worrying [11] - Rubber: The supply is abundant, the US trade war and tariffs may suppress demand, and after the bearish factors are realized, the price may rebound due to improved sentiment [12] - PVC: The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [13] - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the inventory is slightly increasing, the demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]

Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [1] Key Data Summary Inventory Data (in 10,000 tons) - **National Enterprise Inventory on June 6, 2025**: 162.7, including 79 for light soda ash and 83.7 for heavy soda ash [3] - **Inventory Comparison**: Compared with May 30, 2025, national enterprise inventory increased slightly, light soda ash inventory decreased from 81.83 to 79, and heavy soda ash inventory increased from 80.6 to 83.7 [3] Production and Apparent Consumption Data (in 10,000 tons) - **Total Production on June 6, 2025**: 70.41, with 32.19 for light soda ash and 38.22 for heavy soda ash [3] - **Apparent Consumption on June 6, 2025**: Total apparent consumption was 70.14, light soda ash apparent consumption was 35.02, and heavy soda ash apparent consumption was 35.12 [3] Daily Melting Data (in 10,000 tons) - **Total Daily Melting on June 6, 2025**: 25.56, including 15.68 for float glass and 9.88 for photovoltaic glass [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]