尽管面临挑战，柬埔寨的人均国内生产总值（GDP）预计将持续稳步提升。翁赛维索表示，人均GDP将 从2023年的2520美元、2024年的2713美元，提升至2025年的近3000美元。他进一步强调，柬埔寨经济的 五大支柱依然稳固，主要依靠服装鞋类、旅行用品出口、旅游业、农业以及房地产与建筑业支撑。 根据财经部的报告预测，构成柬埔寨经济核心的各大部门在将呈现以下增长趋势：工业部门（以服装、 非服装制造和建筑业为主）预计将实现 7.1% 的增长；服务业（以旅游、交通、电信、贸易和房地产为 主）预计增长 3.8%；农业领域的增幅预计将达到 0.9%。 柬埔寨政府于近日正式发布《国家战略发展计划》。副首相兼内阁办公厅大臣翁赛维索在发布会上指 出，柬埔寨预计2025年经济增速为5%，与2024年预期的6%相比有所放缓。 他说，经济增长放缓的主要原因在于双重外部因素的冲击：柬泰边境冲突和美国加征关税。他特别提 到，自今年8月1日起，美国对来自柬埔寨的输美商品统一征收19%的关税，这对柬埔寨出口造成了明显 压力。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，英国官方数据显示，2025年英国经济在年初表现强劲后，二季度增速有所放缓。这 一情况凸显出财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)在筹备11月年度预算时面临的挑战。英国国家统计 局(ONS)初步估算数据未作修正：2025年二季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长0.3%，低于今年一季度 0.7%的增速，且与路透社调查中经济学家的预期一致。 2024年全年经济增速维持1.1%不变，未作修正;不过，由于季度增长路径数据调整，截至2025年6月底的 全年GDP增速从1.2%上修至1.4%。若剔除人口增长(主要由高移民水平推动)的影响，截至2025年6月底 的全年人均GDP增长0.9%，而2024年人均GDP曾陷入停滞。 英国为G7集团上半年增速最快经济体 2025年上半年，英国经济增速在七国集团(G7)这一大型发达经济体阵营中位列第一。 然而，这一增长部分源于一次性因素——例如在美国进口关税生效前，英国出口出现短期激增。英国央 行预测，2025年全年经济增速将温和维持在1.25%。 "展望未来，今年下半年的经济形势将比上半年更严峻。"会计师事务所RSM UK首席经济学家托马斯·皮 尤(T ...

Core Viewpoint - The influx of tariff revenues and immigration is contributing to a decrease in the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Tariff revenues are currently flowing into the economy, which is exerting downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - Immigration is also identified as a factor that is lowering the neutral interest rate [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the political and economic turmoil in Indonesia following the election of President Prabowo, highlighting public dissatisfaction with government policies [6][8] - Prabowo's economic policies aim for an 8% GDP growth while avoiding fiscal deficits, which has led to tension among the elite and dissatisfaction among vulnerable groups [6][7] - Specific policies, such as providing free lunches for students, have faced criticism due to budget constraints and perceived inequities, leading to further unrest [7][8] Group 2 - Historical context is provided, comparing current events to past political upheavals in Indonesia, particularly in 1965 and 1998, where elite power struggles were masked by public dissent [13][17] - The article suggests that the current unrest is driven by economic decline and internal elite conflicts, with the potential for manipulation of public sentiment by political factions [13][18] - The dynamics between political factions, including Prabowo, Jokowi, and opposition groups, are analyzed, indicating a complex interplay of power and public support [19][20] Group 3 - The potential outcomes of the current political situation are discussed, with Prabowo possibly consolidating power while navigating opposition from both Jokowi and other factions [25] - The article posits that despite the turmoil, there is a foundational logic in Indonesian society that seeks stability, suggesting that the ultimate outcome may not be as dire as it appears [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the national narrow fiscal revenue growth has turned positive, reflecting a stable improvement in the economy [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue Overview - In the first seven months of this year, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [3]. - The revenue growth rate has shown a decline this year, but the rate of decline is gradually narrowing, with July's revenue growth reaching a new high of 2.6% [3][4]. Tax Revenue Analysis - National tax revenue for the first seven months was 110,933 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing [4]. - In July, tax revenue was 18,018 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5%, marking a continuous recovery since April [4]. - The overall tax revenue growth rate remains lower than the economic growth rate, which was 5.3% in the first half of the year [4]. Specific Tax Types Performance - Major tax types showed improvement: domestic value-added tax increased by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% [5]. - Corporate income tax decreased by 0.4%, but the decline was significantly less than in the first half of the year [5]. - Land value-added tax and deed tax saw double-digit declines due to a sluggish real estate market [5]. Non-Tax Revenue Trends - Non-tax revenue for the first seven months was 24,906 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, significantly lower than the previous year's 12% [6]. - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, decreased by 0.7% to 23,124 billion yuan [7]. Fiscal Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, supporting economic stability [8]. - Social security, education, and health expenditures grew by 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, exceeding the average growth rate [8]. Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure expanded significantly to 54,287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, directed towards major project construction and new sectors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has made a historic decision to lower interest rates to 4.0% with a close vote of 5 to 4, indicating significant internal divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The interest rate cut was passed with a narrow margin, highlighting serious disagreements among committee members [1] - Four members voted to keep rates unchanged due to concerns over inflation risks [1] Group 2: Inflation Forecast - The Bank of England has raised its inflation peak forecast to 4%, which is double its target of 2% [1] - It is now expected that inflation will not return to the target until the second quarter of 2027, a delay of three months from previous predictions [1] Group 3: Economic Growth Outlook - Despite the Bank's prediction that economic growth will rebound from 0.1% to 0.3% in the third quarter, the increased inflation expectations and voting divisions have created uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [1] - The Bank's statement suggests that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end, posing challenges for the government focused on stimulating economic growth [1] Group 4: Market Reaction - The GBP/USD pair showed strong bullish momentum but has not yet entered the overbought territory, indicating potential for short-term upward movement [1] - The daily RSI has rebounded from below 40 to around 55, confirming an increase in rebound momentum [1]

Core Insights - Jinan's economy showed a steady improvement in the first half of 2025, with notable highlights from various districts and counties [1] - The district of Lixia led with a GDP of 129.21 billion, followed by Jinan High-tech Zone at 106.36 billion, and Shizhong District at 70.10 billion [1] - Four districts outperformed the city's overall growth rate of 5.4%, with the starting district leading at 23.3% [1] Economic Performance - Jinan High-tech Zone achieved a GDP of 106.36 billion, marking its first time exceeding 100 billion in a half-year since its establishment over 30 years ago [1] - The High-tech Zone's GDP grew by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing national and provincial growth rates by 2.8 and 2.5 percentage points respectively [1] - The contribution rate of Jinan High-tech Zone to the city's economic growth was 23.2%, maintaining the top position for two consecutive quarters [2] Sector Contributions - The primary industry in Jinan High-tech Zone saw an increase of 150 million, growing by 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The secondary industry contributed 48.3 billion with a growth of 14.2%, while the tertiary industry added 57.91 billion, growing by 2.8% [1] - Shizhong District's GDP was 70.10 billion, driven by the digital economy and headquarters economy [2] - Zhangqiao District, with a GDP of 62.57 billion, benefited from high-end equipment manufacturing and new material industry clusters, showing a significant increase in industrial investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates an economic rebound in growth by 2026, following a slowdown to approximately 1% this year [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth is expected to slow down to around 1% in the current year [1] - A rebound in economic growth is projected for 2026 [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains robust despite the anticipated slowdown in economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's Finance Minister indicates that the country's economic growth rate for this year may exceed expectations [1] Economic Outlook - The Finance Minister suggests that the economic growth rate could surpass previous forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for Thailand's economy [1] Implications for Investment - The potential for higher-than-expected economic growth may create favorable conditions for investment opportunities within Thailand [1]

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, exceeding the expected 2.6%[7] - However, the overall economic growth rate is projected to decline to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the second half of 2024[7] - The domestic private final purchases (PDFP) growth has weakened, with Q1 revised down to 1.9% and Q2 at only 1.2%, indicating a decline in internal economic momentum[13] Federal Reserve Policy - Jerome Powell is characterized as a hawkish figure, prioritizing inflation risks over full employment, advocating for tighter monetary policy to suppress inflation[3] - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes, marking a notable increase in opposition during Powell's tenure, reflecting the end of a "great moderation" era[5] - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further reduced" from the Fed's statements suggests ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, particularly related to Trump's administration[6] Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S. and complicating the Fed's rate-cutting decisions[4] - Trump's domestic policies may face greater resistance, potentially leading to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected easing from the Fed[4] - Heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets could accelerate capital outflows and a decline in the dollar, risking a deeper recession[4]