智通财经APP获悉，11月11日，道富市场公布机构投资者指标。道富机构投资者风险偏好指标已从全年 最高水平回落，目前正处于中性区间。值得注意的是，机构投资者并未开始避险，反而将股票配置比例 提升至18年来的新高点。 更重要的是，机构投资者对关键的科技板块保持坚定支持。意料之中的是，机构投资者买入科技权重较 高的亚洲市场，如韩国及中国台湾省。相比之下，他们拋售日本股市，反映出对拟议改革能否成功的担 忧，尤其是在日本央行对通胀压力上升表示担忧的背景下。 外汇市场方面，10月份投资者从大幅减持美元转为试探性买入。美元历来被视为避险货币，但今年早些 时候并非如此。有趣的是，机构投资者，尤其是美国投资者，在美国政府停摆期间买入美元。买入美元 伴随拋售新兴市场货币，并导致外汇套利资金流减弱。道富在外汇领域关注的另一个重要指标是美元对 冲。到目前为止，外国投资者对美股的对冲仅小幅增加。未来，对冲成本下降或将推动这一趋势继续发 展。 机构投资者对价值股的配置比例目前处于自2000年以来的最低水平。这并不令人意外，因为价值策略在 过去20年间表现不佳。市场对稳健的企业盈利与宽松利率周期的关注，正抵消对估值的担忧，进而促使 机构 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that September saw the largest monthly inflow of physical gold ETFs in history, contributing to a record total inflow of $26 billion for Q3 [1] - As of the end of Q3, global gold ETF assets under management (AUM) reached $472 billion, marking a new historical high [1] Inflows by Region - North America and Europe were the dominant forces, with inflows of approximately $10.6 billion and $4.4 billion in September, respectively [1] - North America recorded a 6% increase in total holdings [3] - Europe experienced its third strongest monthly inflow ever, driven by strong demand in the UK, Switzerland, and Germany, despite unchanged interest rates from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England [10] Demand Drivers - Key drivers for the increased demand included ongoing trade, policy, and geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and concerns over a potential government shutdown [8] - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September and expectations for further cuts this year have also contributed to the rising interest in gold [8] - Investors are seeking safe-haven assets amid stock market highs and strong macroeconomic data, which has supported gold demand [8] Asian Market Dynamics - Asia saw inflows of approximately $9.02 million in September, primarily from China and Japan, with India leading the region due to the depreciation of the Indian rupee and weak domestic stock market performance [14] Trading Volume and Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for gold reached $191 billion, a 12% increase from the previous month, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 [15] - Gold ETF trading volume surged to an average of $8 billion per day, reflecting an 84% increase [15] - The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw significant increases in trading volumes, contributing to overall market activity [19]

Group 1 - The cost of hedging dollar exposure for Asian investors has dropped to its lowest level since April, averaging 0.7%, indicating a potential opportunity for risk-averse investors [1][2] - The decline in hedging costs is attributed to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the easing cycles of Asian central banks are nearing an end [1][4] - There is a growing demand for dollar hedging among Asian investors, particularly in capital-exporting economies in North Asia, due to concerns over a weakening dollar [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has recently cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled further policy easing, while other Asian central banks are expected to conclude their easing cycles [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen approximately 8% year-to-date, with institutions like Goldman Sachs predicting continued dollar depreciation [4] - A report from Deutsche Bank indicates that inflows into dollar-hedged ETFs have surpassed those into non-hedged ETFs for the first time in a decade, highlighting the increasing demand for hedging [4]

Group 1 - A new strategy called "hedging the dollar" is gaining traction in global capital markets, with international funds flowing into the US while a potential $1 trillion shorting wave against the dollar is brewing [1][5] - Major Wall Street banks, including State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas, predict that this hedging wave will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [2][8] - The shift towards "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs has seen inflows surpass "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating a historic change in investor behavior [2] Group 2 - The estimated scale of the hedging wave is around $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [5][6] - The traditional view of the dollar as a safe haven during crises has been challenged, particularly after the Trump administration's punitive tariffs led to a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's decline [9][10] - Current foreign holdings of US assets amount to approximately $20 trillion in stocks and $14 trillion in bonds, with a noted decrease in hedging ratios for both fixed income and equities in recent years [11] Group 3 - The trend of increasing hedging is evident, with a recent survey indicating that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to counter a weakening dollar, the highest level since June [12] - Some large investors, including pension funds from Canada, Europe, and Australia, have signaled intentions to increase their holdings, reflecting a broader shift in investment strategies [12] - Individual fund managers are also adapting, with some establishing hedging positions early in the year based on expectations of a weaker dollar, while others remain cautious about increasing hedging in the current environment [12]

Core Viewpoint - A significant strategy known as "hedging against the US" is emerging in global capital markets, characterized by a massive influx of international funds into the US while simultaneously a potential trillion-dollar wave of shorting the dollar is brewing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major Wall Street banks, including State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas, predict that the ongoing hedging activities will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [2][8]. - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-year, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed those into "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [2][8]. Group 2: Scale of Hedging - The potential scale of this hedging wave is estimated at approximately $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Foreign investors currently hold about $20 trillion in US stocks and approximately $14 trillion in US bonds, with a noted decrease in their hedging ratios for fixed income and equities by about five and two percentage points, respectively, in recent years [11]. - A survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to counter a weakening dollar, marking the highest level since June [13]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - One common hedging method employed by overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which typically translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [9]. - The current hedging ratio for foreign investors has stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% mid-year, indicating a strategic shift rather than a mass liquidation of US assets [11].

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in investment strategies is occurring, with a surge in funds flowing into "dollar-hedged" U.S. asset ETFs, surpassing "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating a potential $1 trillion wave of dollar hedging that could restore the hedging ratio of global investors' $30 trillion in U.S. equities and bonds to the average level of the past decade [1][3][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International capital is continuously flowing into the U.S., pushing the holdings of U.S. Treasuries to a historical high while also pursuing rebounds in U.S. equities [2]. - Major Wall Street banks, including State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas, predict that the ongoing hedging activities will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [3][9]. - The current hedging trend is characterized as a precise and subtle strategy termed "hedging America," which is becoming mainstream in global capital markets [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - As of April, foreign investors' hedging ratio for U.S. assets has stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% in mid-2023, indicating a shift in risk management strategies [11]. - A survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to mitigate the risks associated with a weakening dollar, marking the highest level since June [12]. - Some large investors, including pension funds from Canada, Europe, and Australia, have signaled intentions to increase their holdings, reflecting a broader trend towards enhanced hedging [12]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The analysis from Ninety One's Sahil Mahtani suggests that a slight adjustment in the current hedging practices could lead to approximately $1 trillion in dollar-selling foreign exchange transactions [6][11]. - Eleva Capital's Stephane Deo has already established hedging positions early in the year, anticipating a weaker dollar due to government policies, which aligns with the expectation of rising U.S. equities [13].

Group 1 - A significant strategy in global capital markets is emerging, termed "hedging the dollar," with international funds flowing into the US while a potential $1 trillion shorting wave against the dollar is developing [1][4] - Major banks like State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas predict that this hedging trend will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [1][4] - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-2023, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [1] Group 2 - The estimated scale of the hedging wave is around $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [4] - The dollar's strength has been challenged, particularly after the Trump administration's tariff policies in April, which led to a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's decline [6] - Analysts suggest that if the market speculates that the Federal Reserve is pressured by the White House to lower rates, the logical approach would be to favor US stocks and bonds while disfavoring the dollar [7] Group 3 - The most common hedging method among overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [5] - As of April, the hedging ratio for foreign investors holding US assets stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% in mid-2023, indicating a significant shift in hedging behavior [8] - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to address dollar weakness, marking the highest level since June [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global investor behavior towards purchasing U.S. assets while simultaneously hedging against the risk of a declining dollar, indicating a significant change in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Global investors are increasingly buying U.S. stocks and bonds while using derivatives to hedge against further depreciation of the dollar, with Deutsche Bank noting that the inflow into dollar-hedged ETFs has surpassed non-hedged ETFs for the first time in a decade [1][2]. - The anticipated new wave of dollar hedging could reach $1 trillion, restoring the hedging ratio of U.S. stock and bond investments to levels seen over the past decade [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise in U.S. stock markets and the dollar's decline can be attributed to hedging operations that involve shorting major reserve currencies, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reinforcing this trend [2][3]. - The dollar's role as a traditional safe-haven asset has been challenged, particularly following the market turmoil caused by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a shift in investor preference towards currencies like the Swiss franc, euro, and yen [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Major financial institutions, including State Street Bank and Deutsche Bank, believe that hedging operations will exert downward pressure on the dollar's performance, especially in light of the European Central Bank maintaining interest rates and potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4]. - Foreign investors currently hold approximately $20 trillion in U.S. stocks and $14 trillion in U.S. bonds, indicating a strong preference for U.S. assets despite the hedging activities [4][5]. Group 4: Hedging Strategies - The hedging ratio for U.S. assets held by foreign investors has decreased from 70% in mid-2023 to about 56%, suggesting a potential increase in hedging activities as market conditions evolve [5]. - Some fund managers, however, are not significantly increasing their hedging positions, anticipating that the probability of a substantial dollar decline remains low under a gradual rate-cutting scenario by the Federal Reserve [5][6].

Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq reaching an intraday high of 22,352.05 points and the S&P 500 hitting 6,619.62 points, both marking new intraday records [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 50.03 points (0.11%) to close at 45,884.25 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 207.65 points (0.94%) to 22,348.75 points, and the S&P 500 gained 31.02 points (0.47%) to finish at 6,615.31 points [1] - Notable stock movements included Tesla rising by 3.5% and Google (Alphabet) increasing by 4.4%, while Nvidia experienced a slight decline [1] European Market Performance - The German DAX30 index rose by 65.13 points (0.27%) to 23,753.74 points, while the French CAC40 index increased by 71.69 points (0.92%) to 7,896.93 points [2] - The UK FTSE 100 index fell by 6.61 points (0.07%) to 9,276.68 points, and the Spanish IBEX35 index gained 84.87 points (0.55%) to close at 15,388.77 points [2] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $0.61 to $63.30 per barrel (0.97% increase), while Brent crude oil for November delivery increased by $0.45 to $67.44 per barrel (0.67% increase) [2] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.26% to 97.300, with the Euro trading at 1.1769 USD and the British Pound at 1.3605 USD, both higher than the previous trading day [3] - The Dollar weakened against the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar, with respective rates of 147.32 JPY, 0.7942 CHF, and 1.3778 CAD [3] Cryptocurrency and Gold - Bitcoin increased by 0.14% to $115,542.3, while Ethereum decreased by 1.81% to $4,524.98 [4] - Spot gold reached a new historical high at $3,679.06 [4] Macro News - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiring part-time economic assistants to collect price data for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a reliance on statistical estimation due to staff shortages [4] - The hiring aims to reduce the proportion of estimated prices in the CPI, which could significantly lower the margin of error in current estimates [4] Corporate News - Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman supports reforming corporate reporting cycles, advocating for companies to have the option of quarterly or semi-annual reports [7] - This proposal aims to alleviate the reporting burden on companies and potentially stimulate economic growth [7] Individual Company News - Coinbase is exploring the launch of a new cryptocurrency called "network token" through its public blockchain Base, aimed at facilitating decentralized payments and encouraging developer participation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, becoming the worst-performing major currency globally over the past month, primarily due to a massive outflow of funds triggered by a sell-off in technology stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The NTD has fallen for six consecutive trading days, dropping nearly 0.6% to 30.48 NTD per USD, marking its weakest level since May of this year [1]. - The cumulative decline of the NTD over the past month stands at 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, global investors sold off Taiwanese stocks worth $2.38 billion in a single day, marking the largest net outflow in approximately 11 months [3][4]. - The sell-off in the Taiwanese market is closely linked to the downturn in US technology stocks, leading to heightened risk aversion among investors [4]. Group 3: Structural Factors - Analysts suggest that the recent weakness of the NTD is also a result of market adjustments from previous distortions caused by heavy dollar hedging activities [3][4]. - According to Wee Khoon Chong, a senior strategist at BNY Mellon, the market is correcting itself from these distortions, contributing to the NTD's depreciation [4].