每经AI快讯，8月26日，美国30年期国债收益率上升3.3个基点至4.922%；美国两年期国债收益率下降 3.6个基点至3.694%。 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose approximately 1 basis point, nearing 4.29%, with the overall intraday decline narrowing to less than 2.0 basis points after the Federal Reserve meeting minutes were released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rebounded from below 3.73% to above 3.74%, with the overall intraday decline narrowing to less than 0.9 basis points [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread fell back below +54 basis points [1] Group 2 - Following the release of the meeting minutes, the S&P 500 index dropped over 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned negative, and the Nasdaq fell over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in U.S. Treasury yields has sparked speculation in the market regarding its causes, with some attributing it to a potential technical error and others suggesting it may be related to interest rate hedging for corporate bond issuance [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities experienced a sharp increase, particularly from two-year to thirty-year bonds [1] - Analysts indicated that the spike in yields could be a result of large-scale selling in the futures market [1] - A significant trading error was suggested, where a trader intended to sell 8,000 contracts of 10-year Treasury futures but mistakenly sold 80,000 contracts, a volume 20 times the normal size [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly 15 basis points, reaching a daily low of 4.2237%, after briefly rising to a daily high of 4.4060% just ten minutes before the U.S. non-farm payroll report was released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped approximately 24 basis points, hitting a daily low of 3.7124%, and remained around the 3.95% level prior to the non-farm payroll report [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.2%, settling at 98.67 points [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 1.74%, while the Dow Jones dropped 684 points, reflecting a 1.54% decrease [1] - The Nasdaq fell by 495 points, marking a 2.34% drop, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index decreased by 3.13% [1] - The Russell 2000 index also saw a decline of 2.39% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. 2 to 7-year Treasury yields fell by at least 10 basis points following the release of the July non-farm payroll report [1] - Spot gold prices increased by approximately $30, currently reported at $3,334.34 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by about 100 points, now at 99.23 [1] Currency Movements - Non-U.S. currencies experienced a broad rally, with the euro rising nearly 1% against the dollar [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.45% against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.6% against the dollar [1]

美国2至7年期国债收益率日内下跌至少10个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures dropping by $24.4 to $3370.9 per ounce, marking a 0.72% decrease and reaching a two-week low of $3357 during the trading session [1] - The increase in the US dollar index by 1.02% to 98.634, alongside a slight rise in US Treasury yields, has put pressure on gold prices [1] - Enhanced overall market risk appetite is also seen as a negative factor for gold [1] Group 2 - A new trade agreement between the US and the EU was announced, which includes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US and a commitment from the EU to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to begin, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate despite pressure from President Trump for a rate cut [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has warned about the global economic situation and suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to gold or cryptocurrencies as alternative currencies [2]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on emerging market currencies such as Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea, which are expected to stabilize their currencies and attract capital inflows [4]. Core Insights - Despite strong recent employment data in the U.S., the GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is only 30 basis points, with a 40% chance of a mild recession, leading to a continued weakening of the dollar [1][2]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to 4% by year-end, which will benefit fixed income products, including local bonds in emerging markets [1][5]. - A 1% change in the broad dollar index typically results in an additional inflow of $35-40 billion into emerging market local currency indices [5]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report predicts a weak global economy and trade tensions impacting emerging market currencies, but highlights potential strength in specific countries with significant domestic reforms [1][4]. - The dollar's recent rebound is attributed to short positions and strong employment data, but this is expected to fade over time [2]. Emerging Market Currencies - The euro is projected to approach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025, with potential for further appreciation [3]. - Countries like Turkey, Egypt, Chile, and South Korea are identified as having strong currencies due to domestic reforms [4]. Fixed Income Market - The anticipated decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar are expected to support local bond markets in emerging economies [5]. - Historical data suggests that significant capital inflows could return to emerging markets if the U.S. economy slows while the Eurozone maintains growth [5].

智通财经7月24日电，美国国债收益率在新申领失业救济人数下降后小幅走高。 ...