Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Dow Jones up 0.04% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel leading the drop at approximately 7%, while Google, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.33%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese stocks [1] Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting revealed that only two officials supported an interest rate cut, with the majority favoring maintaining the rate at 4.25%-4.50% [2] - Concerns were raised about the labor market, as the July non-farm payroll data showed job additions far below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [2] - Historical revisions to previous employment data indicated a reduction of over 250,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a strong job market [2] Market Reaction to Fed's Stance - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant sell-off, losing approximately $1 trillion in market value over four days due to fears of the Fed's hawkish stance and high valuations in tech stocks [3] - The sell-off was led by tech stocks, with Nvidia and Palantir seeing notable declines, the latter experiencing a cumulative drop of 23.87% since August 12 [3] Diverging Investor Sentiments - Some investors view the market downturn as a buying opportunity, with analysts suggesting that upcoming economic data and Fed Chair Powell's speech could influence market direction [4] - Conversely, other analysts believe that current market valuations are too high, prioritizing profit-taking over risk-taking, indicating a fragile market balance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the performance of major indices and the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][5][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On Wednesday, major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Dow Jones up 0.04% [1]. - Large tech stocks experienced declines, with Intel leading the drop at approximately 7%, while Google, Tesla, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [2]. - The S&P 500 index saw a significant sell-off, losing about $1 trillion in market capitalization within four days due to concerns over the Fed's hawkish stance and high valuations in tech stocks [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting revealed that only two officials supported a rate cut, indicating a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% [3][4]. - The release of disappointing non-farm payroll data shortly after the meeting raised concerns about the labor market, with job additions far below expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor opinions are divided regarding the recent market downturn, with some viewing it as a buying opportunity, while others believe that high valuations necessitate profit-taking [6][7][9]. - Analysts suggest that the downward potential for tech stocks may be limited due to global central banks easing policies, which could support global equity markets [8]. - However, concerns remain that any disappointing news could disrupt the fragile balance in the market, as current valuations have largely priced in optimistic future scenarios [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a technical rebound during the Asian trading session, stabilizing above the 100-day moving average after a significant drop [1][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the policy range at 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Strong economic data, including a 104,000 increase in private sector employment and a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, has bolstered the dollar [3][4] Group 2 - The market is focused on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are supported at the 100-day moving average (around $3,270), with a key resistance level at $3,310 [3][4] - If the core PCE index exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar and put further pressure on gold prices [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock market momentum paused after a record week, primarily due to disappointing earnings reports from European companies like Volkswagen and Puma, alongside rising expectations for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][5] - European markets were the main drag on global sentiment, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index down 0.6% and major indices like Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 also declining [4][5] - The US market remained stable, with the S&P 500 futures showing little change, while the dollar strengthened and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by one basis point to 4.41% [1][4] Group 2: Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive and parts manufacturing sector's pessimistic earnings outlook was a direct catalyst for the market decline, with Valeo's stock plummeting 12.4% after lowering its annual sales forecast [2] - Volkswagen also downgraded its earnings outlook due to tariff challenges, resulting in a 2.4% drop in its stock price, while its truck subsidiary Traton saw an 8.1% decline [2] - The overall European automotive stock index fell by 1.4%, marking it as the largest contributor to the market's downturn [2] Group 3: Consumer Brands Impact - The weak performance of individual consumer brands, particularly Puma, which saw its stock drop 18.7% after lowering its annual earnings forecast, further exacerbated market pessimism [5] - The overall sentiment in European regional stock markets turned negative, with increased risk aversion among investors [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Expectations - Prior to the negative news from Europe, the US stock market had been performing well, with the S&P 500 index reaching 10 new highs in 19 trading days, driven by strong earnings and optimism regarding trade agreements [6] - As the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaches, market sentiment is shifting, with analysts suggesting a greater likelihood of the Fed maintaining a hawkish tone [6][9] - Institutional trading departments, including Goldman Sachs and Citadel Securities, are advising clients to consider hedging strategies to protect against potential market pullbacks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment in the market shifted as U.S. Treasury yields turned from rising to falling after deeper analysis of newly released economic data, indicating a complex economic outlook despite initial positive indicators [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Initial jobless claims decreased, and retail sales exceeded expectations, initially leading to an increase in Treasury yields, suggesting strong economic resilience [1] - However, the decrease in jobless claims was influenced by a smaller-than-usual summer shutdown in auto factories, indicating potential underlying weaknesses [1] - Retail sales growth may not be as robust as it appears, with future trends showing risks of weakness according to economic analysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the third week of June, international gold prices experienced the largest weekly decline of the year, dropping 2.8% to around $2,280 per ounce, indicating a significant restructuring of the pricing logic for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index regained support amid adjustments in interest rate expectations, becoming a key factor suppressing gold prices. Futures indicate that traders have pushed back the expected timing of the Fed's first rate cut from September to November, with the steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve pushing the dollar index above 106 [3]. - The substantial decrease in geopolitical risks accelerated profit-taking among gold bulls, particularly after a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to a noticeable contraction in market demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The World Gold Council reported a 12% year-on-year decline in global gold jewelry demand in Q2, with weaker-than-expected seasonal purchases in the Indian market. Although central bank gold purchases remained high, China's gold reserve increase slowed to 21 tons in April-May, down from an average of 35 tons per month in Q1 [7]. - The marginal changes in supply and demand dynamics have reinforced the momentum for price adjustments, with institutions beginning to revise gold valuation models. Credit Suisse lowered its year-end gold price forecast from $2,500 to $2,350, citing rising real interest rates that will compress gold premium space [7].

Geopolitical Analysis - Iran's retaliatory actions against the U.S. led to a ceasefire, reducing geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion, which in turn pressured gold prices [1] - Trump's unexpected "thank you" remarks regarding Iran's response further eased tensions, contributing to a decline in gold prices [1] - The combination of reduced geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy is expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the future [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a failure to break through the key resistance level of 3400, indicating weak upward momentum [3] - The price has fallen below the important support level of 3335, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend [3] - Current technical structure appears weak, with a focus on the critical support area around 3320; a break below this level could open further downside towards the psychological level of 3300 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting gold prices and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Analysis - As of June 23, gold prices fluctuated significantly, closing at $3387.89 per ounce, with a daily range between $3347.09 and $3397.95 [1]. - The market is currently influenced by two main factors: escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [3]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have provided temporary support to gold prices, with each statement boosting prices by approximately 30 points [4]. Technical Analysis - The current technical indicators suggest a stalemate in the gold market, with short-term moving averages intertwined and the MACD hovering near the zero line, indicating a lack of clear direction [6]. - The previous high of $3500 remains a significant resistance level, and the market may be shifting towards a bearish trend [6]. - A key strategy for investors is to consider short positions around the $3400 mark, with a critical support level at $3360; a break below this could trigger further selling [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a resurgence of the dollar's safe-haven appeal, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has dampened expectations for rapid rate cuts, putting pressure on gold prices [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to provide support for gold prices despite the stronger dollar [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has weakened the attractiveness of holding gold, as indicated by Chairman Powell's comments that downplayed expectations for rate cuts [2][4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing short-term downward pressure, with key resistance levels at $3370 and $3390, while support levels are identified at $3340 and $3315 [4] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating around $3356, with a notable drop to $3340 before a slight rebound, reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve's stance on market sentiment [1][4] - The short-term outlook for gold remains weak, with indicators suggesting further potential declines, as the hawkish Fed position overshadows geopolitical factors [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 from two to one, with seven officials supporting no cuts for the year [2] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes that inflation pressures may be exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies, leading to increased market uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy path [2][3] - Economic data shows a mixed picture: initial jobless claims reach 245,500, an eight-month high, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [3] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing a "pendulum effect," with short-term support from geopolitical conflicts, but diminishing safe-haven demand as market reactions remain muted despite rising tensions in the Middle East [4] - Current dollar index stands at 98.67, with real interest rates around 1.15%, suggesting a reasonable gold price range of $3,200-$3,300 per ounce, yet spot gold remains above this range, reflecting market pricing for stagflation risks [5] Group 3 - The Fed's policy is highly data-dependent, with potential implications for gold prices based on upcoming economic data releases, particularly the July CPI and the assessment of tariff impacts in the July FOMC meeting [7] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased safe-haven buying of gold, but there is a caution against the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, as historical data shows that geopolitical tensions typically boost gold prices for only 1-2 weeks [9]