转自：新华财经 新华财经北京8月20日电 今年以来，押注新兴市场货币兑美元的交易已带来本十年最具吸引力的回报之 一，而据花旗新兴市场策略主管Luis Costa表示，这一交易在短期内仍有继续运行的空间。 Costa表示，美联储更为积极的鸽派立场，叠加新兴市场央行的谨慎态度，将继续支撑发展中市场货币 兑美元走强。一项追踪由做空美元资金驱动的八个新兴市场套利交易回报的指数今年上涨逾10%，有望 录得2017年以来最大年度涨幅。 "新兴市场央行的平均立场也非常谨慎，这仍表明实际政策利率具有可持续性。"Costa说。"还需要考虑 市场隐含的2026年美联储可能更加鸽派的预期。综合来看，这一组合仍支撑美元维持相对稳定，尽管国 际投资者对美股的兴趣有所回升。" 编辑：王姝睿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting gold prices and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Analysis - As of June 23, gold prices fluctuated significantly, closing at $3387.89 per ounce, with a daily range between $3347.09 and $3397.95 [1]. - The market is currently influenced by two main factors: escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [3]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have provided temporary support to gold prices, with each statement boosting prices by approximately 30 points [4]. Technical Analysis - The current technical indicators suggest a stalemate in the gold market, with short-term moving averages intertwined and the MACD hovering near the zero line, indicating a lack of clear direction [6]. - The previous high of $3500 remains a significant resistance level, and the market may be shifting towards a bearish trend [6]. - A key strategy for investors is to consider short positions around the $3400 mark, with a critical support level at $3360; a break below this could trigger further selling [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices experienced a significant drop due to easing concerns over international trade tensions following a scheduled meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates, with a probability of 98.1% for no change, which is a key factor influencing gold prices [3] - Recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, have alleviated market worries about inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [3] Group 2 - Gold prices showed a significant upward trend earlier in the week but are now facing a necessary correction after a 200-point increase, with the upcoming interest rate decision expected to influence future movements [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3436, while support levels are noted at 3377 and 3350, indicating potential trading strategies based on these price points [5] - The analysis suggests a cautious approach to trading, recommending short positions at current prices with a focus on testing support levels [5]