研究美国股市图表形态的分析师敲响了警钟，他们担忧近期下跌可能演变为全面回调。 标普500指数（SPX）周一遭遇大幅抛售，自10月28日创下历史高点以来的跌幅扩大至3.2%，这是自2月 至4月暴跌以来，该指数从历史高点回落的最大幅度。这一基准指数139个交易日以来首次收于50日均线 下方，打破了本世纪以来第二长的高于该趋势线的纪录。 该指数还较6725点关口跌超50点，高盛资深交易员李·科珀史密斯（Lee Coppersmith）当日早些时候指 出，这一水平可能导致趋势跟踪量化基金（CTA）从买方转为卖方。 "市场表面之下正发生诸多不利变化，"波托马克基金管理公司（Potomac Fund Management）联合首席 投资官兼投资组合经理丹·鲁索（Dan Russo）表示，"若跌破50日均线的同时，市场广度持续恶化、更 多股票创出新低，情况将更令人担忧，这将预示更多抛盘即将到来。" 与标普500指数一样，纳指（IXIC）同样低于其50日均线，结束了自1995年10月2日结束的187个交易日 以来最长的连续高于50日均线的纪录。 "股市回调已然发生，我认为标普500指数将从当前水平进一步下跌，"万特罗布斯基表 ...

格隆汇11月14日｜周五美盘，由科技股主导的美国股市抛售潮加深，主要基准指数跌破支撑位，市场对 美联储可能不会在下一次会议上降息的担忧日益加剧。标普500指数周五低开0.8%，延续了以科技股为 首的暴跌，并跌破了50日移动平均线。科技股的抛售也拖累了纳斯达克100指数，该指数开盘下跌1%。 蓝筹股道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.1%。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数攀升至22以上。 Annex Wealth首 席经济策略师Brian Jacobsen说："市场总有担心的事情，目前对美联储12月暂停行动的担忧取代了对政 府长期停摆的担忧，尽管政府已经重新开放，但经济数据仍处于'黑暗'状态，这需要更多时间才能解 决。这也是股市一直在回调并试图站稳脚跟的部分原因。" ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月14日｜路透社市场分析师Jeremy Boulton表示，外汇交易员可能会考虑，他们长期担忧的股 市回调是否终于开始了。但股市跌得越深，12月降息的可能性就越高。目前市场定价美联储12月降息25 个基点的概率约为52%。此轮获利了结，主要源于投资者担心12月将不会降息。但留意重点：这是一次 获利了结，而非亏损头寸的被迫平仓。交易员往往会在调整后重新建立盈利头寸，而本轮回调正提供了 更具吸引力的入场水平。若出现较预期更早的降息刺激因素，将给交易员提供行动的理由。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and the fifth since September 2024, indicating the start of a monetary easing cycle in the U.S. [1] - The labor market has shown signs of slowing down, with rising unemployment rates, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year to prevent further deterioration in the job market [3] - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue rate cuts in December, with some officials advocating for a wait-and-see approach to observe a complete economic cycle before making further decisions [3] Group 2 - The stock market has shown a clear upward structure without signs of a major top, as the market breadth has not exhibited significant divergence, and trading volumes have remained stable [4] - Historical patterns indicate that small-cap and micro-cap stocks typically show weakness before a market bubble peaks, but current observations do not suggest significant deterioration in these stocks [4] - The current stock market valuation may be approaching high levels, but the formation of a valuation bubble is expected to take time, and there are no clear signals of a major market top [4] Group 3 - A potential 5% pullback in the stock market could attract significant buying interest, leading to new historical highs shortly after [4] - In the event of extreme market conditions, such as a major internal collapse or a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, there could be a risk of an 8% or more deep correction, making it difficult for indices to quickly reach new highs [5] - Technically, the Nasdaq is in a clear upward trend, with recent breakthroughs above 25,000 and 26,000, and the focus remains on whether prices can pull back to the 25,250 to 25,400 range for buying opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline on November 4, 2025, with major tech companies seeing significant drops in their stock prices, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 4, 2025, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with large tech companies like Intel, Tesla, and Nvidia experiencing declines of over 6%, 5%, and 3% respectively [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization decreased by approximately $199 billion, equivalent to about 1.42 trillion RMB, reflecting the overall cautious sentiment in the market [2] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - Financial institution leaders predict a potential market correction of 10% to 20% within the next 12 to 24 months, advising investors to prepare for volatility [2] - Some executives believe that the market can withstand a 10% to 15% adjustment unless there is a severe macroeconomic shock [2] Group 3: Nvidia's Business Developments - Despite recent stock price pressures, Nvidia has successfully expanded its business partnerships, leading to a market capitalization milestone of $5 trillion, making it the first company to reach this level [2] - Nvidia's market value increased from $4 trillion to $5 trillion in just four months [2] Group 4: Executive Wealth and Company Impact - Nvidia's rising market value has created three new billionaires this year, including board member Brooke Seawell, whose net worth surged due to stock price increases [2] - CEO Jensen Huang ranks ninth on the global billionaire list with a personal net worth of $175.7 billion, having increased by $61.3 billion since the beginning of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in Asian stock markets appears to be a direct reaction to the decline in U.S. technology stocks, particularly affecting tech-heavy indices in Asia like the South Korean market [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Asian markets, especially those dominated by technology, have shown strong performance recently, leading to larger losses when market sentiment shifts [1] - The potential for continued declines in Asian markets is questioned, particularly if U.S. tech stock sell-offs intensify [1] Group 2: Valuation Comparison - Despite the recent pullback, Asian valuations remain relatively low compared to the U.S., which may limit the downside potential for a global market downturn [1]

Core Insights - Multiple CEOs from major Wall Street investment banks have indicated that investors should prepare for a potential market correction exceeding 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, suggesting that such adjustments are not necessarily negative [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Capital Group's President and CEO Mike Gitlin stated that corporate earnings remain strong, but the current challenge lies in valuations, with most believing that stocks are between fair and overvalued [1] - Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon share similar views, indicating that a significant market correction is a common occurrence in market cycles [1] - Solomon noted that while technology stock valuations are high, the overall market is not necessarily overvalued, and a 10% to 15% correction is typical during an upward cycle, which does not alter capital flows or long-term allocation strategies [1]

Core Insights - Major Wall Street investment bank CEOs indicate that investors should prepare for a potential market adjustment of over 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, suggesting that such pullbacks are not necessarily negative [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Capital Group's CEO Mike Gitlin states that corporate earnings remain strong, but valuation poses a current challenge [1] - Gitlin notes that most investors perceive stocks to be between fair and overvalued, with few considering them to be between cheap and fair [1] - Morgan Stanley's CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon echo similar sentiments, predicting significant pullbacks as a common occurrence in market cycles [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Solomon highlights that technology stock valuations are quite full, although the overall market is not in the same position [1] - He points out that a 10% to 15% market pullback is typical during upward cycles and does not alter capital flows or long-term allocation strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major banks on Wall Street are poised for a strong third-quarter earnings season, with analysts expecting a 6% profit increase compared to the same period last year [3][4]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict that the core loan, trading, and investment banking revenues of major banks will see comprehensive growth, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth for investment banking and trading revenues, excluding Wells Fargo [4]. - The stock prices of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley have risen between 23% and 40% this year, outperforming the S&P 500 index by at least 9 percentage points [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market environment is characterized by high activity levels due to geopolitical dynamics, interest rate, and exchange rate fluctuations, contributing to a favorable outlook for banks [4]. - Despite earlier uncertainties caused by regulatory policies, global corporate merger and acquisition activity has surpassed $1 trillion, with a rebound in IPOs, corporate bond issuances, and syndicated loans [5]. Group 3: Management Insights - Bank executives expressed optimism regarding investment banking progress and the resilience of the U.S. economy during a Barclays conference, indicating that they are actively engaging with clients about the impacts of regulatory policies [5]. - Increased compensation costs across banks are seen as a reflection of heightened investment banking and trading activities, termed as "benign spending" by JPMorgan's co-head of commercial and investment banking [5]. Group 4: Concerns and Risks - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned of potential stock market corrections in the next two years, citing concerns over trade, tax, and immigration issues [6]. - Recent bankruptcies in the U.S. automotive sector have raised concerns about the credit environment, particularly regarding high-yield bonds and opaque markets [6][7]. Group 5: Credit Exposure - Documents reveal that JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bank have credit exposure to Tricolor, while larger creditors in the First Brands bankruptcy include Jefferies, UBS, and First Citizens Bank [7]. - Jefferies has reported $715 million in receivables related to the bankrupt First Brands Group, leading to a 20% drop in its stock price since being identified as a creditor [8].

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced 33 trading days without a 1% pullback, indicating muted volatility and a bullish market trend leading to record highs [1] - This trend was abruptly interrupted as investors identified vulnerabilities in the market as the year-end approaches [1] Trade Relations - President Trump's threat of "massive" tariffs on China and the possibility of canceling a meeting with President Xi Jinping could escalate the ongoing trade war, impacting market stability [2] - The tariff threat is part of a series of retaliatory measures in the U.S.-China trade dispute that has persisted for several months [3]