2025 年 08 月 25 日 宏观深度研究 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 美债的历史演进与当下困局 美国系列深度研究之三 《7 月政治局会议解读：长期无虞 短期无忧*夏 磊》——2025-07-31 《2025 年中期宏观经济形势与政策展望：新格局 下的中国经济：韧性与潜力*夏磊》——2025-07-08 《 黄 金 价 格 波 动 的 底 层 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-07-04 《宏观深度研究：影响土地市场的五大因素*夏磊》 ——2025-06-18 研究所： 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 近年来，美国联邦政府债务规模持续攀升。奥巴马任期 8 年，债务从 10.6 万亿增至 19.9 万亿美元；特朗普第一任期，债务规模扩大至 27.8 万亿美 元，4 年增长 7.8 万亿美元；拜登任期结束时，债务总额已达 36.2 万亿 美元，4 年增长 8.5 万亿美元。债务增长速度不断加快，第一个 12 万亿 美元用时超 200 年，第二个 12 万亿美元约 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is seeking comments on modifications to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), with a deadline set for August 26 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for globally systemically important banks (GSIBs), aiming to reduce capital requirements and enhance liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The proposal is a 140-page discussion paper initiated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) [1] - The changes are seen as a reversal of the strong regulatory trend established after the 2008 financial crisis [1] - The proposal aims to adjust capital requirements for banks to ensure the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) functions effectively without unnecessarily limiting banks' lending capabilities [1] Group 2: Support and Opposition - Among the seven Federal Reserve governors, two opposed the proposal, while five, including Chairman Jerome Powell, supported it [2] - The current Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, stated that the proposal is a crucial step in balancing financial system stability with the resilience of the Treasury market [2] Group 3: Implementation Timeline - The proposal has a 60-day comment period, with no set timeline for implementation [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the new regulations could be finalized 4-6 months after the comment period, potentially taking effect within 6-8 months [2]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields declined as investors expressed concerns over President Trump's consideration to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping over 2 basis points [1] - On the same day, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 3.768%, the 10-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.285%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 0.3 basis points to 4.839% [1] - Powell reiterated the Fed's primary goal of controlling inflation amidst unclear impacts from Trump's tariffs, facing criticism from Trump who is reportedly considering Powell's successor [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve Board voted 5-2 to lower the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), allowing major banks to release some of their capital to support market stability, which could enable banks to purchase more US Treasuries [4] - Investors are awaiting the weekly initial jobless claims data and the May Personal Consumption Expenditures index to be released [4] - European bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year German yield down by 1.7 basis points to 2.544% and the 10-year Italian yield down by 4.5 basis points to 3.4464% [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.8 basis points to 1.436% [6] - Japanese investors increased their holdings of overseas medium- to long-term bonds by 615.5 billion yen, while foreign investors reduced their holdings of Japanese medium- to long-term bonds by 368.8 billion yen [6] - The US Treasury Department reissued 77-day cash management bills for the first time in 16 years, issuing a total of $214 billion in four bond types [6]

Group 1: NATO Defense Spending - NATO has agreed to increase its defense spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, marking the most decisive move in over a decade [4][6] - The commitment includes a minimum of 3.5% of GDP dedicated to "pure" defense, with the remainder allocated to security and related infrastructure [6] - European defense stocks have performed exceptionally well, with Rheinmetall's stock rising 248% and Exail Technologies SA increasing by 444% over the past year [6] Group 2: US Defense Stocks - US defense stocks have also shown strong performance, with Raytheon Technologies up 23% and Palantir soaring 90% year-to-date [7] - Despite the positive market sentiment, Goldman Sachs noted significant net selling in European defense stocks ahead of the NATO meeting [7] Group 3: Stablecoin Developments - The European Commission plans to introduce new regulations for the rapidly growing stablecoin market, despite warnings from the European Central Bank about potential risks to banking stability [9] - Mastercard is deepening its collaboration with fintech company Fiserv to integrate its new FIUSD token into its products, aiming to enhance the adoption and practicality of stablecoins [9] - Circle Internet, the first public stablecoin company, has seen its stock decline over 5% recently, following a significant increase of over 700% since its listing [9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify in the Senate, with investors keen on any hints regarding the Fed's monetary policy direction [11] - Powell indicated a cautious stance on interest rates, suggesting that lower-than-expected inflation or a weak job market could lead to earlier rate cuts [11] - The Fed is also considering a proposal to relax bank leverage rules, which could facilitate trading in the US Treasury market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expresses confidence in advancing Basel III and the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) measures [1] Group 1 - The implementation of Basel III is seen as a crucial step for enhancing the stability of the banking sector [1] - The Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) measures are designed to ensure that banks maintain adequate capital buffers [1] - Powell's remarks indicate a proactive approach by the Federal Reserve in addressing potential risks in the financial system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will disclose certain information regarding feedback on the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) today [1] Group 1 - The announcement indicates a focus on regulatory measures related to leverage in the banking sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to release opinions regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) today [1] Group 1 - The announcement indicates a potential shift in regulatory measures affecting financial institutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July but indicated that it is more likely to wait until at least September to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell emphasized that many paths are possible regarding interest rates, suggesting that inflation may not be as strong as anticipated, which could lead to an earlier rate cut [1][3]. - He stated that if inflation pressures are indeed controlled, the Fed would act quickly to cut rates, but he refrained from specifying a particular meeting for such a decision [7][22]. - Powell noted that the majority of FOMC members believe a rate cut later this year is appropriate, but the economic outlook remains uncertain [9][10]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell reiterated that tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on prices during June, July, and August, and if the expected impact does not materialize, it would serve as a lesson for the Fed [2][5]. - He mentioned that at least some of the tariff costs will be borne by consumers over time, indicating a shift in who absorbs these costs [25]. - Powell maintained an open attitude towards the possibility that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be less than expected, which would have substantial implications for monetary policy [1][11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that the labor market shows no signs of weakness, and as long as the economy remains strong, there is no urgency to cut rates [22][23]. - He expressed concerns about the sustainability of the federal budget and debt growth, warning that prolonged inaction could lead to more severe consequences [61][62]. - Powell projected that the U.S. economy would slow down this year, partly due to immigration issues, and he expressed skepticism about the immediate productivity benefits of AI [31][32]. Group 4: Financial Stability and Regulation - Powell highlighted that while the commercial real estate (CRE) situation is improving, it remains a risk that needs monitoring [47][49]. - He noted that the Fed is on track with its balance sheet reduction and has room to continue this process for some time [56][57]. - Powell stated that the Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining credibility in controlling inflation, emphasizing that political factors should not influence monetary policy decisions [50][53].

美联储理事、负责金融监管事务的副主席鲍曼：银行监管与美国国债市场流动性是有关联的。 美联储将于周三开会，讨论补充杠杆率（SLR）的事宜。 ...