长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-11-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：继续偏弱震荡，关注前期支撑位表 现 豆粕：买船推进加快，价格高位回落 目 录 01 豆粕：买船推进加快，价格高位回落 01 豆粕：买船推进加快，价格高位回落 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止11月21日，华东现货报价2970元/吨，周度下跌50元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3012元/吨，周度下跌80元/吨；基差报价 01-40元/吨，基差上涨30元/吨。周度美豆高位回落，短期美豆无利多支撑叠加南美播种生长顺利，美豆上方承压；巴西升贴水报价 走弱，国内进口压榨利润改善，油厂买船加快，打压连盘价格表现。 ◆ 供应端：USDA11月供需报告下调美豆至53美分/蒲，单产高于市场预期；结转库存下调至2.9亿蒲，低于9月预估的3亿蒲，美豆整体 供需收紧，但程度有限；截至11月15日，巴西大豆播种率为69.0%，上周为58.4%，去年同期为73.8 ...

（原标题：美农报告即将公布 豆粕价格或偏强震荡运行） 11月17日，国内期货市场上，豆粕主力合约2601小幅下挫，下午收盘报3043元/吨。不过此前豆粕价格 呈现显著拉升，自10月下旬以来，该主力合约从2852元/吨低点持续上行，累计最大涨幅近9%。 "11月上半月国内豆粕现货价格涨后趋稳，整体波动空间有限。成本端美豆期价受中国采购消息及报告 利多预期支撑走强，但国内供需保持宽松，库存高企，叠加下游刚需补库为主，现货交易平淡。"卓创 资讯豆粕市场高级分析师马梓涵表示，当前，市场焦点集中于15日即将公布的美农供需报告，预计12月 底前，在成本支撑、库存压力缓解等因素影响下，豆粕现货价格或偏强震荡运行。 卓创资讯数据显示，截至11月13日，全国豆粕现货均价为3072元/吨，较上月末上涨39元/吨，本月高低 价差为15元/吨，波动空间较为有限。 消息面上，美国农业部将于北京时间11月15日凌晨发布11月供需报告，在美政府"停摆"导致9月后再无 官方数据发布的情况下，时隔两月美农报告的公布将为市场提供关键指引，市场提前交易报告数据偏多 预期，美豆期价涨至近16个月来高点。而国内现货市场基本面持稳，供需保持宽松格局，业 ...

需求端来看，下游企业现货接货意愿较为谨慎，刚需滚动补库为主，部分头寸出现下滑，整体表现疲 软。中旬开始，部分大豆压榨集团积极推进销售12-3月为主的远月基差组合，华东、华南地区平水价格 成交，山东地区基差为20元／吨。市场中下游出于建立底仓、认可价格等原因成交情绪升温，11月10 日-13日全国豆粕远月成交总量为44.80万吨。 国际市场方面，国际大豆丰产主基调将令美豆期价上方空间有限，同比收紧的供需格局则为大豆价格提 供较为坚实的底部支撑。 11月上半月国内豆粕现货价格涨后趋稳，整体波动空间有限。展望后市，卓创资讯预计12月底前，在成 本支撑、库存压力缓解等因素影响下，豆粕现货价格或偏强震荡运行。 具体来看，进入11月，中国采购美豆的消息支撑美豆期价走强，成本端对国内豆粕现货价格形成利多影 响。随着后续中国对美豆采购跟进不足，美豆期价因中国需求落实不佳继续上涨乏力，走势震荡呈现， 对国内豆粕价格影响中性。卓创资讯数据统计显示，截至11月13日全国豆粕现货均价为3072元／吨，较 上月末上涨39元／吨，本月高低价差为15元／吨，波动空间较为有限。 从国内供需来看，原料大豆整体充裕，支撑上游企业开工保持较高水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in China's soybean imports, highlighting a recent decision by Chinese importers to purchase approximately 20 shipments of Brazilian soybeans due to lower prices, despite expectations of increased U.S. soybean exports to China amid easing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese buyers previously slowed down Brazilian soybean purchases due to high prices, but have resumed buying as prices have decreased, making Brazilian soybeans more attractive compared to U.S. soybeans [3][5]. - The price of U.S. soybeans has risen to a near 15-month high due to positive signals regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, which has led to a decrease in the premium of Brazilian soybeans [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's annual soybean import demand is around 100 million tons, with over 80 million tons of South American soybeans exported to China this year, significantly reducing the domestic supply gap to approximately 10 million tons [7]. - The renewed purchases of Brazilian soybeans by Chinese buyers indicate a further reduction in market space for U.S. soybeans, as the market share of U.S. soybeans in China has been declining in recent years [7]. Group 3: Price Trends - The expectation of sufficient imported soybean supply limits the likelihood of significant increases in soybean meal prices, especially with the recent announcement of tariff adjustments on U.S. imports [9][10]. - The stable demand for soybean meal, supported by high inventory levels and strong livestock populations, suggests that while there is potential for price increases, significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term, with prices expected to range between 2,900 and 3,300 yuan per ton [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal spot prices in October experienced a slight decline due to ample supply, but the market pressure is expected to ease in November, leading to a potential increase in price levels [2][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - In October, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (0.96%) from September and down 42 yuan/ton (1.39%) year-on-year [2]. - The average operating rate of soybean crushing enterprises showed a trend of initially low and then high, with high inventory levels contributing to the price drop [2]. - The total soybean crushing volume in October was 8.7632 million tons, a decrease of 935,100 tons from September [2]. Market Dynamics - The market began to see a recovery in soybean meal prices towards the end of October, driven by expectations of U.S.-China negotiations and the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by China [2]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis narrowed to 12 yuan/ton by October 31, down from 39 yuan/ton on October 9, indicating weakening spot basis [2]. Future Outlook - For November, the supply of raw soybeans is expected to tighten gradually, with forecasts of soybean arrivals at 9.49 million tons in November, 7.5 million tons in December, and 5 million tons in January [4]. - Despite some recovery in U.S. soybean purchases, the commercial import margins remain negative, limiting procurement by foreign and private enterprises [4]. - The recent irregular rainfall in Brazil has caused delays in planting, which may have a neutral impact on international soybean meal prices in the short term [4]. Price Expectations - The combination of easing supply pressures and supportive cost factors is expected to lead to an upward shift in soybean meal spot prices in November [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The opening of US soybean imports drives up costs, leading to an upward trend in domestic soybean meal prices. However, the upside is limited due to factors such as the high cost of US soybeans and the weakening of domestic demand growth [5][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the market is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors from the producing areas. The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil are under pressure, while soybean oil shows relatively stronger performance [78][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal - **Market Review**: As of October 31, the spot price in East China was 2950 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton monthly. The basis price decreased by 30 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Supply**: The USDA October report was delayed. US soybean exports accelerated, but China's actual purchases were limited. Brazilian old - crop sales pressure increased, and the new - crop planting progress was 50% as of October 31, lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel. The estimated bottom price of US soybeans is around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: US soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around 1100 cents/bushel. Domestic soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of import costs, but the performance is not as strong as that of US soybeans [7]. - **Strategy**: Slightly reduce M2601 long positions and re - enter at low prices. Lightly build long positions in M2605 and M2609 at low prices. Spot enterprises should sell the basis at high prices and roll long positions [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Review**: As of October 31, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices declined, while soybean oil prices were relatively stable [80][82]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports increased less than production, with an expected inventory build - up. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy may face obstacles. In the short - term, palm oil prices are under pressure, but there is support below [80]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the APEC meeting, China agreed to purchase US soybeans, which boosted the market sentiment. The high - level soybean crushing volume in September and the possible downward adjustment of the new - crop yield of US soybeans supported the short - term rebound of US soybean prices. In the long - term, the supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, which limits the de - stocking speed [80]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has improved, and the possibility of Canadian rapeseed entering China has increased. The supply of rapeseed in Canada is expected to be abundant, but there is still a supply gap in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [80]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the upside of oils and fats is limited, but the adjustment range is restricted. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and the start of weather speculation in South America [80]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts. Consider the strategy of narrowing the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil 01 contracts and widening the spread between soybean oil and palm oil 01 contracts [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The current soybean meal price is close to the industry cost, with significant long - short divergence. The market focuses on the Sino - US negotiation results. The negotiation progresses smoothly, and there is a possibility of a US soybean purchase agreement. The soybean meal may weaken again due to the bearish sentiment [2][98] - Medium - term: The market agrees that China's soybean supply is sufficient this year. The 01 contract may be anchored to the lowest cost valuation. The only bullish factors for the 01 contract are the uncertain weather in the South American sowing season and the unpromoted 12 - month ship purchases. If US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year, the 03 contract will decline following the 01 contract [2][98] - Operation suggestion: Be cautious about bottom - fishing before the South American weather situation is clear. It is recommended to participate in the 1 - 5 reverse spread based on the logic of sufficient soybean supply in China before the end of the year [2][98] Summary Based on the Table of Contents I. Market Review - The fluctuation of the domestic soybean meal contract 01 has increased this week. After breaking through the support level and then strongly rebounding, the long - short game is intense. The market expects the Sino - US negotiation results to provide directional guidance. The CBOT US soybean main contract has strongly rebounded by more than 50 cents per bushel to around 1060 cents due to the optimistic expectation of the Sino - US negotiation and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US [5] II. Sino - US Expected to Reach an Agreement 2.1 Latest Trade Negotiation Progress - Since October, Sino - US game has intensified. After multiple rounds of communications and consultations, from October 25th to 26th, Sino - US economic and trade teams held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues and will go through the respective domestic approval procedures [25][26] 2.2 Impact of Negotiation Results on the Domestic Soybean Meal Market - If the negotiation makes no progress or only cancels part of the tariffs, the 03 contract may rise to repair the crushing profit. If all mutual - imposed tariffs are cancelled, the 01 and 03 contracts may weaken further. If China promises to increase the purchase of US soybeans, it will be a major bearish factor for domestic soybean meal [29][30][31] 2.3 Follow - up Concerns - Whether Sino - US will issue a joint statement this week and their interaction. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 31st to November 1st [33] III. Fundamental Overview 3.1 United States - **Reasons for the rebound and future trend of US soybeans**: The recent rebound of CBOT US soybeans is due to the strong domestic crushing demand in the US and the optimistic expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans. If US soybeans return to the Chinese market, CBOT US soybeans may rise, but the increase should not be over - optimistic. If not, the price may fall below 1000 cents [35][36] - **Harvest approaching the end**: The new - season US soybean harvest started in mid - September and is expected to be over 80% completed [37] - **No new - crop US soybeans sold to China**: Due to the current tariff level, China has not pre - purchased the 2025/26 new - crop US soybeans, and the sales progress of new - crop US soybeans is the slowest in the past decade [38] 3.2 Brazil - **Smooth sowing of new crops and increasing production forecast**: As of October 18th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 21.7%. The predicted export volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 crop year is expected to reach 1.1211 billion tons, and the production is expected to be 1.7764 billion tons [47] - **Significant year - on - year increase in soybean exports**: In September, Brazil's soybean export volume was 734.1 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. ANEC expects the export volume in October to be 734 million tons [49] - **A large amount of unsold old - crop soybeans**: The unsold old - crop soybeans in Brazil are estimated to be about 1500 - 2000 million tons [50] 3.3 Argentina - **New - crop sowing to start in mid - to late October with a reduced planting area**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Argentina is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares [57] - **The suspension of export tax causing an earthquake in the global soybean market**: After Argentina suspended the export tax on soybeans and related products from September 23rd, the global soybean price fell, and the spot market in Argentina was booming. During the tax - suspension period, the cumulative export sales of soybeans exceeded 5 million tons, further confirming the sufficient soybean supply in China this year [58] 4.1 China - **Abundant soybean supply**: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in domestic oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons, and the annual cumulative import volume is expected to reach 112.18 million tons, a record high. As of October 18th, the purchase progress for November was 87%, 16.1% for December, and no purchase for January. The soybean inventory of domestic oil mills is still high [63][64] - **Support from rigid demand but hard to offset the short - term high supply**: Since August, the downstream replenishment ability has been limited. From September to October, the monthly feed production increased month - on - month, and the proportion of soybean meal in feed increased [82] IV. Future Outlook - **Futures market**: In the short - term, soybean meal may weaken due to the expected Sino - US soybean purchase agreement. In the medium - term, the 01 contract may be affected by weather and purchase progress, and the 03 contract may decline if US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year [98] - **Spot market**: In the short - term, the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of the year, and the weak basis may last until November. In the medium - term, the basis may rise slightly but will be restricted by the sufficient soybean supply [100]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in soybean meal prices is primarily driven by expectations from the US-China trade talks and strong domestic crushing demand, but the sustainability of this rebound is uncertain due to market sentiment and existing pressures in the domestic market [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Soybean meal futures prices rebounded significantly, closing at 2933 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 80 CNY/ton from the low point on Wednesday [1]. - As of October 24, the spot price of soybean meal in East China was reported at 2910 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports surged to 86.19 million tons in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, with a notable 15% increase in imports from May to September [3]. - The total soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills reached 49.54 million tons from May to September, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [3]. - Despite a projected decline in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, the total supply is expected to remain sufficient, with an estimated 32.2 million tons available to meet the average monthly crushing demand of 8.8 million tons [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains robust, driven by high inventory levels in the livestock sector, with average weekly consumption reaching 1.71 million tons, significantly higher than last year's 1.55 million tons [4]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is relatively low compared to previous years, making it an attractive option for feed, which supports continued strong demand [4]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The profitability of crushing Brazilian soybeans has significantly decreased, leading to a slowdown in the pace of domestic purchases, with a notable gap in soybean procurement for future months [5]. - There is a procurement gap of 8 to 9 million tons for imported soybeans from November to January 2026, while the remaining export volume from Brazil is only 5 million tons [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the US soybean stocks-to-use ratio is tightening, and prices are expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. China's soybeans from September to October have sufficient arrivals, and the spot price is weak. From November to January, the outlook for Sino-US trade improvement is dim, and the price is expected to rise. The M2601 contract price is expected to increase slightly [6]. - For oils, in the short term, the intensification of Sino-US disputes has increased macro risks, and oil prices are expected to follow the external market to correct. However, after the macro factors subside, there is still a possibility of a rebound [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Section 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of October 11, the spot price in East China was 2930 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the M2601 contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the basis price increased by 60 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, and the yield is expected to be lowered. Brazil's sowing progress is faster than the same period. China's supply is abundant in October, but there is a risk of supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if US soybean imports cannot continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, China's aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents per bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from the US Gulf is 2990 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3160 yuan/ton [6][49]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. The price of the M2601 contract is expected to increase slightly, and the strategy is to operate in the range of [2900, 3030] [6]. 3.2 Oil Section 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of October 10, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts all increased compared to before the National Day holiday, and the basis also increased [79][80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report was bearish, but the export data in October was strong. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test provided support. China's palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply in October is sufficient [79]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Sino-US trade disputes have dampened the prospects of US soybean exports to China. China's soybean supply is sufficient until October, which suppresses soybean oil prices. The supply gap after November has narrowed [79]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Anti-dumping measures have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November. However, policy uncertainties, high domestic inventories, and alternative imports limit price increases [79]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are expected to correct, but there is a possibility of a rebound later. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, and pay attention to the evolution of Sino-US trade relations [79].

Core Viewpoint - The removal of soybean export tariffs in Argentina has led to a significant increase in soybean imports by China, alleviating concerns about supply shortages in the fourth quarter, which in turn has caused a decline in domestic soybean meal prices in September [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In September, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 3008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (0.67%) from August, and down 88 yuan/ton (2.84%) year-on-year [1]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories remained high, prompting a focus on inventory clearance, while downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious due to lower import costs from Argentina [1][3]. - The total soybean crushing volume in September was 9.6291 million tons, a decrease of 210,300 tons from August [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - For October, soybean arrivals are projected to be 9.23 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8.5 million tons for the months of October to December, indicating a tightening supply outlook, although factory inventory levels remain high [3]. - The international market is influenced by ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S., with China significantly reducing imports of U.S. soybeans [3]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans remains stable, while Argentine soybean import costs have decreased, although the limited share of imports from Argentina means its impact on domestic soybean meal prices is relatively weak [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The overall demand for soybean meal is expected to be negatively impacted by declining prices of downstream livestock products and worsening losses in the livestock sector [4]. - The supply side remains elevated, contributing to a loose supply-demand situation that is likely to exert downward pressure on spot prices [4].