证券研究报告 | 金融工程报告 2025 年 08 月 17 日 当下价值/成长的赔率和胜率几何？ ——风格轮动策略周报 20250815 在《如何从赔率和胜率看成长/价值轮动》报告中，我们创新性地提出了基于 赔率和胜率的投资期望结合方式，为应对价值成长风格切换问题提供了定量模 型解决方案。后续，我们将持续在样本外进行跟踪并做定期汇报。 上周全市场成长风格组合收益 3.34%，而全市场价值风格组合收益为 1.02%。 1、赔率 在前述报告中，我们已经进行了验证，即市场风格相应的相对估值水平 是其预期赔率的关键影响因素，并且两者应该呈现出负相关。由于存在上述 线性关系，我们根据最新的估值差分位数，可推得当下成长风格的赔率估计 为 1.11，价值风格的赔率估计为 1.09。 2、胜率 在八个胜率指标中，当前有 6 个指向成长，2 个指向价值。根据映射方 案，当下成长风格的胜率为 68.88%，价值风格的胜率为 31.12%。 3、最新推荐风格：成长 根据公式，投资期望=胜率*赔率-（1-胜率）。我们计算得最新的成长风格 投资期望为 0.45，价值风格的投资期望为-0.35，因此最新一期的风格轮动模 型推荐为成长风 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance shows that the growth style portfolio achieved a return of 2.54%, while the value style portfolio returned 2.24% [1][8] Group 2: Odds - The relative valuation levels of market styles are key factors influencing expected odds, which are negatively correlated [2][14] - The current estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while for the value style it is 1.09 [2][14] Group 3: Win Rates - Among seven win rate indicators, four point to growth and three to value, resulting in a current win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16] Group 4: Investment Expectations and Strategy Returns - The investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.14, while for the value style it is -0.04, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.62%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 [4][19]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the overall financial market dynamics, particularly focusing on the bond and equity markets in the context of risk preferences and liquidity conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The current market is characterized by rising risk preferences, leading to an increase in stock prices and a decline in bond prices, contrary to expectations of decreased liquidity [1][4][12]. 2. **Profitability and Debt Trends**: Asset-side profitability remains stable at low levels, while the private sector's debt growth has been steady. There are no significant signs of economic downturn or substantial upturn [1][5]. 3. **Liquidity Conditions**: Financial liquidity peaked between July 4 and 8, followed by a contraction. A cautious approach is advised for future liquidity assessments [1][6]. 4. **Model Limitations**: Current models accurately track total funds but struggle with predicting changes in risk preferences, necessitating improvements for better forecasting [7][8]. 5. **Government Debt Trends**: A forecast indicates a unilateral decline in government debt growth in the coming months, which may hinder sustained upward trends in equity markets [2][13]. 6. **Market Behavior**: The stock and bond markets exhibit a "teeter-totter" effect, where rising stock prices coincide with falling bond prices, indicating a market driven by risk preferences rather than liquidity [12][15]. 7. **Impact of Policies**: The introduction of "anti-involution" policies has positively influenced market sentiment, correlating with rising commodity prices and equity markets [16][18]. 8. **Historical Context**: Comparisons are drawn between current economic conditions and past bubbles, highlighting a return to normal growth rates after periods of high growth [17]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations include focusing on bonds as a safer investment due to declining risk preferences, while also considering equity positions based on market sentiment [28][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt Growth Patterns**: The entity observed two rounds of debt growth in the real sector, primarily driven by government bond issuance, with private sector financing needs remaining low [10]. 2. **Market Overheating Indicators**: In overheated market conditions, rising stock prices typically lead to falling bond prices, signaling potential market corrections [14]. 3. **Investment Research Approaches**: Emphasis on the distinction between fundamental and non-fundamental research, with a recommendation for fundamental analysis in the current volatile environment [23][24]. 4. **Risk Management**: The importance of maintaining a cautious investment stance, including the potential for holding cash during unfavorable market conditions, is highlighted as a key strategy for long-term survival [30].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The latest growth style investment expectation is calculated at 0.14, while the value style investment expectation is at -0.04, recommending a shift towards growth style [4][18] Group 2: Odds - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while for the value style it is 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The report emphasizes that the relative valuation level of market styles is a key influencing factor for expected odds [2][14] Group 3: Win Rates - Among seven win rate indicators, four point towards growth and three towards value, resulting in a current win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16][17] Group 4: Investment Expectations and Strategy Returns - The annualized return of the style rotation model strategy from 2013 to present is 27.35%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 [4][19] - The total return for the growth style is 544.78%, while for the value style it is 605.02%, indicating a strong performance of both styles [19]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 2.32%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 2.76% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.12, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.14, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.04, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.19%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.00 [4][19]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue, combining investment expectations based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 5.49%, while the value style portfolio returned 3.33% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.10, and for the value style, it is 1.09, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 68.88%, while the value style has a win rate of 31.12%, based on seven indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.44, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.96%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.99 [4][19]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style rotation based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was -0.01%, while the value style portfolio returned -0.14% [8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.10, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 68.88% for growth and 31.12% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.44, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][19]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.82%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.15% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.09, and for the value style, it is 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 58.26% for growth and 41.74% for value [3][18] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.22, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.13, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][19] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.18%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][20]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.88%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.77% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.03, and for the value style, it is 1.07, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, while 4 favor value, resulting in a win rate of 46.13% for growth and 53.87% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The investment expectation formula yields a value style investment expectation of 0.11 and a growth style expectation of -0.06, leading to a recommendation for the value style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.20%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.96 [4][18]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The overall market growth style portfolio had a return of -0.55%, while the value style portfolio had a return of 0.18% in the last week [8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.01, while for the value style it is 1.03, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 31.12%, and for the value style, it is 68.88%, based on seven win rate indicators [3][17] Group 3 - The latest investment expectations calculated show a growth style expectation of -0.38 and a value style expectation of 0.40, leading to a recommendation for the value style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.73%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][19]