周五，美国8月非农就业报告发布后，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，今年夏季就业增长急剧放缓，8月的就业报告清楚表明， 自年初以来，新增就业增长已明显降温。 这几乎已确定美联储将在两周后的会议上把利率下调四分之一个百分点，但也使此后有关降息步伐的争论更加复杂。 Timiraos指出，美联储主席鲍威尔此前已表态，如果数据显示劳动力市场正在放缓，美联储将按计划降息： 鲍威尔上个月表示，"风险的平衡似乎正在发生转变"。当前状况反映出"劳动力供给和需求都在显著放缓"。这意味着劳动力市场结果比预期更糟的风险正在上 升。 Timiraos表示，由于通胀此前停止下行，美联储直到最近才愿意降息。白宫限制移民、削减联邦政府工作人员、并大幅提高关税的政策，既引发了对需求走弱 的担忧，也加剧了物价压力。 Timiraos认为，鲍威尔上个月的讲话，标志着他首次有实质性地推动在同僚间达成共识——此前，美联储内部对于该更关注通胀上行风险，还是就业恶化风 险，一直存在分歧。 "新美联储通讯社"分析非农报告 对于最新的8月非农报告，Timiraos在X平台上发文总结说： 8月份，美国雇主新增了2.2万个 ...

转自：中国新闻网 中新网8月29日电 据路透社当地时间28日报道，美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇 美联储理事莉萨·库克，库克28日对特朗普提起诉讼，称特朗普无权将她解职。 据报道，诉讼还指控特朗普未经通知或听证就对其解雇，侵犯了美国宪法赋予库克的正当程序权利。 图片来源：路透社 报道介绍，库克于2022年成为美联储理事会的首位黑人女性成员。后被美国前总统拜登提名担任美联储 理事，任期至2038年。2025年以来，库克一直对美国通胀问题表示担忧，认为关税可能会推高通胀。特 朗普对美联储的不满持续已久。他曾多次要求美联储降息，甚至威胁"解雇"美联储主席鲍威尔。 美国有线电视新闻网此前报道称，这是美联储100多年来首次出现总统将理事解职的情况，标志着特朗 普与美联储的斗争"显著升级"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes reveal deepening internal divisions regarding the interest rate path, with a surprising two members supporting a rate cut, introducing new uncertainty into recent monetary policy discussions [1][5]. Economic Perspectives - Officials exhibit significant disagreement on key economic issues, particularly inflation, with some advocating for more time to observe trade policy impacts, while others argue that waiting for clear signals is neither feasible nor appropriate [3][5]. - There are varying opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing the transmission may be slower than expected, while others warn of rising pressures in service prices [3]. - The assessment of the U.S. labor market shows diverse viewpoints; despite a historically low unemployment rate, some officials note signs of slowing wage growth and a decrease in new job creation, indicating potential cooling in labor demand [3][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Several participants expect the U.S. economic growth to remain sluggish in the second half of the year, with slowing real income growth potentially suppressing household consumption [3][5]. Employment Data Impact - The discussions occurred prior to the release of the July employment report, which significantly revised down the previous two months' employment data, potentially heightening concerns among decision-makers about economic slowdown [5]. - Analysts suggest that the meeting minutes, while not revealing much new information, reinforce key signals: the July meeting's tone was more cautious than market expectations, and future decisions will increasingly rely on economic data performance [5]. Policy Flexibility - Decision-makers emphasize the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, agreeing that adjustments should be made based on changes in economic data [7]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainty will continue to draw market attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the divisions among decision-makers reflecting the complexity of the current U.S. economic environment [7].

2025 年 08 月 15 日 锌：短期震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22480 | -0.53% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2811.5 | -1.28% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 78030 | -315 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 6970 | -1594 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 80798 | -5188 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 193713 | -588 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -50 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -1.5 | 3.26 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

美国7月新增非农就业人数仅为7.3万，远低于市场预期的11万。这一数据表明，尽管就业增长有所放 缓，但并未出现"坠崖式下滑"。尽管如此，金融市场的第一反应是负面的。黄金价格应声上涨，而美元 则出现跳水。这主要是因为市场认为，就业数据不及预期可能会增加美联储降息的概率。 然而，从更客观的角度来看，这份数据并不足以促使美联储立即采取降息措施。美联储目前更加关注的 是通胀问题，而不是短期内的就业放缓。关税已经开始推高通胀，而最新生效的关税政策（将平均关税 税率提高到约18%）的影响尚未完全体现出来。因此，只要就业增长不是零或负增长，美联储仍会认为 经济处于"安全着陆"的状态。 失业率小幅上升 但仍处窄幅区间 尽管失业率从上个月的4.1%上升至4.2%，但依然处于2024年5月以来一直所处的4.0%-4.2%的窄幅区间 内。这一水平也低于美联储年底预测的4.5%。劳动力市场的"降温"过程仍在继续，但整体表现仍然稳 定，没有出现明显的恶化迹象。 北京时间20:30，美国劳工部公布了7月非农就业报告。数据显示，新增非农就业人数为7.3万，低于市 场预期的11万；失业率则维持在4.2%，与市场预期持平。这一数据引发了金融市 ...

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：我们将确保关税问题不会变成通胀问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has essentially reached its targets, allowing the Federal Reserve to shift its focus primarily to inflation issues [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation is reinforced by the current state of the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, emphasized the importance of not allowing tariff issues to escalate into inflation problems [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Implications - Macklem highlighted that tariffs should not be allowed to contribute to inflationary pressures, indicating a proactive stance on managing economic stability [1] Policy Recommendations - The Bank of Canada is focused on ensuring that trade policies do not adversely affect inflation, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of tariff impacts on the economy [1]