（原标题：央行研究所丁志杰：?人民币国际化是资管行业发展的重要机遇） 21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 上海报道 近日，由南方财经全媒体集团指导，21世纪经济报道主办、浦发银行联合主办的"2025资产管理年会"在 上海浦东隆重举办。中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰受邀出席，并以"人民币国际化与资管行业发 展"为主题发表了主旨演讲。 中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰（图源：官方供图） 丁志杰指出，目前人民币已成为除美元、欧元以外第三种具有"货币锚"效应的货币。所谓"货币锚"效 应，是指一些国家在制定汇率政策和进行汇率管理时会将某种货币作为重要参考基准或"锚"的现象，这 就使得该国货币汇率与参考货币汇率形成一定的关联或联动性。 实证研究显示，人民币在"一带一路"共建国家，尤其是在东亚地区呈现出一定的"货币锚"效应，部分非 洲国家的本币汇率与人民币汇率也出现了联动关系。与欧元和美元的"货币锚"效应不同，人民币的"货 币锚"效应没有制度安排，更多体现的是事实上的联动性。 丁志杰解释，美元和欧元的"货币锚"效应更多体现在一种制度安排，例如美元区除了美国使用美元，还 有一些国家把美元作为法定货币，如厄瓜多尔、巴拿马。还有一些非欧 ...

Market Overview - The debt-driven sell-off trend in the commercial real estate market is expected to continue, but merely lowering prices will not resolve the core issues [2] - The vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings remains high and shows signs of increasing differentiation, with first-tier cities experiencing overall vacancy rates between 16.9% and 27.8% [2] - Beijing has the lowest vacancy rate among first-tier cities at 16.9%, down from 18.3% at the end of 2024, indicating a potential for further decline in vacancy rates due to no new supply entering the market [2] Demand Dynamics - In Q2 2025, the TMT sector accounted for 55.2% of the leasing transaction area in Beijing's Grade A office market, driven by significant new leases from AI and telecommunications companies [3] - The TMT sector also leads leasing demand in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, with respective shares of 22.7%, 37.4%, and 18.7% [3] - Other notable sectors include professional services and finance, which are also significant contributors to leasing demand in these cities [3] Asset Transactions - New World Development is reportedly selling part of the K11 office building in Shanghai, with a listing price of 2.85 billion yuan for approximately 81,000 square meters, although the company has denied these claims [4][5] - The company is focusing on asset disposals as a strategy to optimize its capital structure and alleviate liquidity pressures, planning to sell several landmark assets in mainland China [5][6] - Recent asset transactions indicate a decline in both the number of transactions and total transaction value, with only two commercial asset transactions totaling 816 million yuan during the reporting period [7] Transaction Case Studies - The largest transaction during the period was the acquisition of the Taihe Shanghai Headquarters building for approximately 660 million yuan, with a unit price of about 36,100 yuan per square meter [8] - The market is witnessing a trend of judicial auctions and debt-related transactions, with many assets being sold at significant discounts due to ongoing liquidity crises among real estate companies [8][9] - The current market mismatch is characterized by an oversupply of assets and a scarcity of quality assets, with investors favoring clear-title, well-operated properties in core urban areas [9]

海南自贸港多功能自由贸易账户(EF账户)是海南自贸港封关运作重要的金融基础设施之一，是海南 自贸港逐步推进金融开放，特别是在跨境资金的自由便利流动方面的一项制度安排。 中国人民银行海南省分行相关负责人介绍，该账户最大的优势体现在资金"跨一线"可依法自由划 转，同名账户"跨二线"有限渗透。 "跨一线"资金可依法自由划转，是指EF账户与境外账户、OSA账户、NRA账户之间，以及EF账户 之间"跨一线"资金可依法自由划转，凭收付款指令办理。 同名账户资金"跨二线"有限渗透，是指允许海南自由贸易港内同一个经营主体开立的EF账户与自 身境内普通账户在额度内自由划转，满足其资金摆布需求。但是，同名"渗透"的资金不得用于负面清单 内用途。 EF账户的服务对象包括符合条件的自贸港内企业、境外企业、境外个人和金融机构。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the EF account in Hainan Free Trade Port has significantly enhanced cross-border capital flow, facilitating over 170 billion yuan in transactions within a year, marking a milestone in financial openness and efficiency in the region [4][5]. Policy Empowerment - The People's Bank of China initiated the EF account to support the operational closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, with the account officially launched on May 6, 2024, and has since been well-received by businesses [5][6]. - The EF account serves as a crucial financial infrastructure for Hainan's gradual financial opening, allowing for more convenient cross-border capital flow management [5][10]. - The EF account operates under a principle of "one line open, two lines manage," which simplifies the cross-border capital flow process compared to traditional methods [5]. Business Practice - On the first day of the EF account's launch, 34 companies opened accounts, with one company completing five transactions in a single day, demonstrating the efficiency of cross-border capital movement [6]. - In the first half of 2025, 273 new EF accounts were opened, a significant increase from the previous year, with a total transaction volume of approximately 91.8 billion yuan, indicating growing business engagement with the EF account [8]. Financial Innovation - The EF account has shifted business needs from basic cross-border settlements to global treasury management, enhancing liquidity and competitiveness for enterprises [9]. - The successful implementation of the first EFN loan has provided a new financing model for other companies, promoting innovation in the cross-border financial sector [9]. Risk Control - The EF account's design balances the need for free capital flow with risk management, establishing a financial "electronic fence" to ensure safe and orderly operations [10]. - The account's framework allows for limited penetration between cross-border and domestic accounts, creating a safeguard while promoting financial market openness [10].

Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Performance - Shanghai's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure totaled $2.77 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [1][2] - Foreign capital inflow into RMB assets has increased, with net inflow into domestic stocks reversing from last year's outflow [2] - The foreign exchange hedging ratio has risen to 42.2%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating heightened awareness among enterprises regarding currency risk [2] Group 2: Financial Policy Developments - Two financial opening policies have made progress: the offshore trade financial service reform pilot and the optimization of free trade account functions [3][4] - The offshore trade pilot has completed 22 transactions with a total cross-border payment of 648 million yuan, enhancing settlement efficiency [3] - The free trade account upgrade aims to create a funding management structure that allows for more innovative reforms [3] Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - New loans for small and micro enterprises increased by 95.29 billion yuan, with significant support for technology innovation and equipment upgrades [5][6] - The average interest rate for new loans to small and micro enterprises has decreased to 3.22%, down 67 basis points year-on-year [6] - Financial institutions have been encouraged to support private enterprises in capital markets, with over 130 stock repurchase loan projects approved [6]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "RMB-denominated settlement" is a significant institutional design that directly supports the internationalization of the RMB and the financial opening goals of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1]. Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port Timeline - The specific date for the closure of Hainan Free Trade Port is set for December 18, 2025, as approved by the Central Committee [2]. - The "Implementation Rules for Cross-Border Asset Management Pilot Business" were published on July 21, 2023, and will take effect on August 21, 2025 [2][3]. Key Innovations in the Implementation Rules - The rules allow global investors to participate without geographical restrictions, facilitating easier access for foreign capital into the domestic financial market [5]. - Foreign individual investors can now directly invest in pilot asset management products using proof of residence in Hainan and RMB income, enhancing investment convenience [5]. - All transactions for pilot asset management products must be settled in RMB, creating a closed-loop management system [5][6]. - The funds raised by pilot asset management products must be directed towards the domestic market, ensuring that the underlying assets are RMB-denominated [6]. - Issuing institutions can offer products to both domestic and foreign investors, increasing participation incentives [7]. - The range of pilot products covers various risk levels (R1 to R4), providing a wide selection for investors [7]. Importance of RMB-Denominated Settlement - The emphasis on RMB-denominated settlement is crucial as it fosters a closed-loop for cross-border asset management, cultivates the offshore RMB market, and positions Hainan as a key hub for RMB asset allocation [7]. Initial Pilot Scale and Future Adjustments - The initial pilot scale is capped at 10 billion RMB, with provisions for dynamic adjustments based on economic and market conditions [8]. - In the initial phase, only licensed foreign financial institutions or legitimate Chinese enterprises abroad can participate, with gradual opening to other foreign investors thereafter [8].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the cross-border asset management pilot program in Hainan Free Trade Port, effective from August 21, 2025, is a significant step towards financial openness in China, with a focus on facilitating foreign investment through RMB-denominated transactions [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Implementation Timeline - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025, as approved by the central government [1]. Regulatory Framework - The "Implementation Rules for Cross-Border Asset Management Pilot Business" were jointly formulated by several regulatory bodies and will take effect on August 21, 2025 [1][2]. Global Investor Access - The rules allow global investors to use funds from both domestic and international sources to purchase pilot asset management products, removing the need for bilateral agreements [2][3]. Individual Investor Inclusion - Foreign individual investors can directly participate by providing proof of residence or employment in Hainan for at least one year, along with evidence of RMB income from within China [2][3]. RMB Settlement and Management - All transactions for pilot asset management products must be conducted in RMB, creating a closed-loop management system that supports the internationalization of the RMB [3][4]. Investment Focus - Funds raised through pilot asset management products must be directed towards the domestic market, ensuring that the underlying assets are RMB-denominated [3][5]. Product Diversity - The pilot program will cover a range of risk levels (R1 to R4), providing various investment options from low-risk money market funds to higher-risk private equity [3][5]. Initial Scale and Future Adjustments - The initial total scale limit for the pilot program is set at 10 billion RMB, with provisions for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions and financial developments [5].

Core Insights - The rapid growth of China's ETF market is attributed to policy support, product innovation, and market openness, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment [2][4][7] - Foreign institutions are increasingly using ETFs as a channel to invest in Chinese assets, with significant inflows and holdings in various ETF products [3][5][6] Group 1: Market Growth and Statistics - As of July 11, 2023, China's ETF market reached a total size of 4.29 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 3.67 trillion yuan at the end of last year [3] - In the past year, China's ETF market saw a net inflow of 108.9 billion USD, leading the Asia-Pacific region [4] - China's ETF market accounts for 30.7% of the total ETF assets in the Asia-Pacific region as of April 2023 [3][4] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Participation - Major foreign institutions like Barclays, UBS, and Singapore's GIC are frequently listed among the top holders of Chinese ETFs, indicating strong foreign interest [5][6] - The appeal of Chinese ETFs for foreign investors is driven by attractive valuations and supportive government policies [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Foreign institutions project that the scale of China's ETF market could exceed 12 trillion yuan within the next 5 to 10 years, driven by financial openness and product innovation [2][7] - The interest from global sovereign wealth funds in China has notably increased, with 59% of respondents prioritizing China as a key emerging market investment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market, reaching a new high of 3509 points, raises questions about whether it has entered a bull market and if genuine wealth opportunities are emerging [1] Group 1: Market Fundamentals for a Bull Market - A bull market requires sufficient external funds, which include both domestic and foreign investments [2] - Historical examples from the US show that external funds are crucial for bull markets, with significant inflows during past bull runs [2][3] - The current A-share market needs to attract retail and institutional investors, particularly focusing on the movement of household savings into the capital market [4] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the CSI 300 index is approximately 12.38, indicating it is in a low valuation range similar to previous bull market beginnings [5][6] - Historical data shows that the PE ratio tends to be at or below historical averages before the onset of bull markets, suggesting the current market may be in a similar phase [6] Group 3: Financial Environment and Policy - The openness of the financial environment and the relative freedom of capital flow are essential for a healthy market, with recent policies indicating a trend towards increased market openness [7] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the inclusion of RMB stock trading in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, signal a move towards greater financial integration [7] - The current financial strength of the domestic market is better positioned to handle external investments compared to previous years, which may support a more stable market environment [7][8] Group 4: Current Market Position - Despite the index reaching new highs, the A-share market is still considered to be in the early stages of a bull market, with significant potential for growth if external funds continue to flow in [8] - The presence of government support in the market provides a safety net, reducing the likelihood of a significant downturn in the near term [8]

Monetary Policy Overview - The monetary policy in China is showing resilience in the first half of 2025, providing strong support for stable economic growth and high-quality development amid global economic adjustments and domestic structural transformations [2][3] - The policy toolbox has been enriched with measures such as adjusting cross-border financing parameters and implementing a package of monetary policy measures in May [2][3] Policy Measures - In January, the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing was raised from 1.5 to 1.75, enhancing the financing capacity of domestic enterprises and financial institutions [3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 450 billion yuan in March, shifting to a multi-price bidding approach to improve liquidity management [4] - A comprehensive package of ten monetary policy measures was announced in May, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates [5][6] Impact on Lending and Housing Market - The adjustment of the loan market quotation rate (LPR) in May led to a reduction in monthly mortgage payments, thereby supporting housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [6][7] - Structural policy tools were introduced, including an increase of 300 billion yuan for technology innovation loans and 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans [6][8] Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on balancing growth and risk prevention while maintaining internal and external equilibrium [9][10] - Analysts predict potential further reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and stabilizing the exchange rate [10][11]