美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为53.3，至39个月高点，预估为49.5，前值为49.8。美国8月标普全球服务业PM1初值为55.4，预估为54.2，前值 为55.7。美国8月Markit制造业PMI初值53.3，为2022年5月以来最高水平，预期49.7，前值49.8。 2025年9月26日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK宣涨10月下旬运价,盘面显著上行,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 783.71点, 较上期下跌13.24% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 673.61点, 较上期下跌7.65% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 944.89点, 较上期下跌23.30% | | 9月19日 | 9月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运 ...

| | | | 9月15日 | 9月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1440.24点，较上期下跌8.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）783.71点，较上期下跌13.24% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1349.84 点，较上期上涨37.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）673.61点，较上期下跌7.65% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）944.89点，较上期下跌23.30% | | 9月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1198.21 点，较上期下跌199.90点 | 9月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1052USD/TEU，较上期下跌8.8%％ | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1125.30点，较上期下跌2.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1636USD/FEU, 较上期下跌31.0% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1537.28点，较上期下跌6.2% | | | 中国出口集 ...

季度报告——集装箱运价 需求增速放缓，警惕供应边际扰动 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 欧线（震荡） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 16 | 年 | 9 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★欧线需求增速放缓 欧洲出口疲弱或对经济形成抑制，进而部分抵消部分降息周期 对经济的正向拉动，经济复苏态势将有放缓迹象。叠加补库动 能趋于减弱，而去库的启动，可能会抑制欧洲进口需求的增长。 但中欧之间的商品价格差距难以迅速收窄、贸易逆差维持高位， 加上产能外迁的趋势在短期内不可逆转，亚欧集装箱贸易需求 预计将保持较高水平。随着 2024 年下半年以来贸易基数的显著 抬升，预计从 2025 年下半年开始，增速将呈现放缓趋势。 航 ★过剩压力持续，警惕边际扰动 运 新船交付节奏明显放缓，加上当前欧线运力已处于相对饱和状 态。四季度新船预计不会为欧线供应带来太多额外增量，运力 增长压力预计有所缓解。但过剩压力持续存在。需求基数增长， 仍难以突破上限运力对市场的绝对压制。其次，市场竞争加剧， 船司协同能力减弱。此外，其他航线利润 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict and tariff fluctuations make the game difficult, suggesting light - participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - The overall freight rate is still declining, and the market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI flash was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI flash was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI flash rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the services PMI flash was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Trade and Policy - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try long positions lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly with small positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On September 1, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, down 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Events - On August 31, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli army killed the spokesman of the Hamas Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip, but Hamas has not confirmed this news. The Israeli army has been expanding military operations against Hamas [5]. - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate continues to decline, and the futures market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties [2][5] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - takers can try light - position long positions at specific price levels for certain contracts, but should set stop - losses [5] Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Indexes - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [3] - On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1035.79 points, down 1.59% from the previous period; the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83%; the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% [3] - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the European route price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35%; the US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% [3] - On August 22, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1174.87 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8%; the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, higher than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8; the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, slightly lower than the forecast of 50.8 and the previous value of 51; the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1 [3] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4] Market and Strategy - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, down 0.89%, with a trading volume of 1.80 million lots and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5] - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try light - position long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions due to large fluctuations [5] - Long - term strategy: Take profit on rallies and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [5] Other Information - Sino - US tariff extension negotiations have no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5] - The spot freight rate maintains a downward trend, the futures market is weakly volatile with large recent fluctuations, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Set stop - losses [2] - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5] 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6 [3] - The eurozone's SENTIX investor confidence index in July reached 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, hitting the highest level since April 2022 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] - The initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous value 52.9); the initial value of the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] Market Situation - As of August 20, the Israeli side has not responded to the new cease - fire agreement proposed by Hamas, and the Israeli military has approved an offensive plan for Gaza City [7] - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On August 20, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1355.0, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 27,500 lots and an open interest of 51,700 lots, a decrease of 1072 lots from the previous day [5] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China - Europe Base Port: In August, the monthly average weekly capacity was 347,300 TEU, and in September, it was 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional vessels, and the OA Alliance added one. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [2][115]. - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared. The estimated SCFIS on August 4th and 11th is between 2300 - 2400 points. The delivery settlement price has been revised down to 2100 - 2200 points. Pay attention to Maersk's Week 34 opening price [3][122]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normally, October is one of the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The 10 - month contract price is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the 10 - contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $2000/FEU. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4][123]. - December Contract: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [6][124]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Container Freight Rate Review - Futures Market: As of August 1st, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 75,300 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 41,800 lots. In July, the EC2508 contract rose 20.73%, the EC2510 contract rose 6.35%, the EC2512 contract rose 12.83%, the EC2602 contract rose 13.93%, and the EC2604 contract rose 13.27% [11]. - Spot Price Performance: In July, most routes saw price increases. Among the 10 routes counted by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 4 routes had an increase of over 50%. The SCFIS European route (basic port) rose 9.1% to 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS US - West route (basic port) fell 20.7 to 1284.01 points [22]. - Forward Spot Quotation: The forward quotation has peaked and declined. Different shipping companies have different price trends for different weeks and ship - departure periods [35]. Supply Chain - Overall Contradiction: The overall contradiction is small. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal is still at a low level. The container ship diversion pattern continues. The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [39]. - Global Supply Chain: The supply - chain efficiency is continuously recovering. In June, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 47.58%, approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rates of Asian - European, Asian - US West, and Asian - US East routes have all reached new highs [49]. - Port Congestion: The overall port congestion pressure is small, but there is local pressure. As of July 31, 2025, the global container ship congestion capacity was 9.96 million TEU, accounting for 31% of the total container ship capacity [56]. Capacity Supply - Global Supply: The container ship delivery pressure remains large. New shipbuilding orders are at a high level. In 2024, shipping companies significantly increased container ship orders. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the ship - dismantling pressure is limited [67][72]. - Far East - Europe Route Capacity Supply: The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships on the Far East - Europe route is still large. From 2025 - 2028, there will still be significant supply - side pressure [87][92]. Overseas Demand - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone economy stabilized in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. The inflation is stable, and the market confidence has improved to some extent, but it is still affected by the shadow of tariffs [103]. - Import Demand: In 2025, the European import demand is acceptable. From January to May, the container trade volume between the Far East and Europe increased by 10.6% year - on - year, while China's exports to the US decreased by 10.71% from January to June [105][107]. European Line Strategy - Freight Rate Trend: The top of the freight rate has appeared. Pay attention to the downward slope of the freight rate in the later stage. The capacity in August and September is relatively high, and there are additional vessels in August for Maersk and the OA Alliance [115][122].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that export indicators for July show signs of improvement, particularly in exports to emerging countries, with a marginal increase of 8% in foreign trade port cargo volume [2][8][112] - The container throughput at foreign trade ports increased by 8.9% year-on-year in July, indicating a potential short-term improvement in actual export volume [2][8][112] - The structure of exports shows a significant recovery in container cargo volume from China to Vietnam, rising to over 60%, while exports to the US have declined [2][13][112] Group 2 - Container shipping rates have been declining since July, with the CCFI composite index dropping 4.8% over three weeks, indicating varying impacts on different shipping routes [3][21][113] - The relative price changes in shipping rates suggest better export performance to emerging markets compared to the US, with the East-South Asia and East-West Africa routes showing higher rates [3][32][113] Group 3 - Production indicators for July show a rebound in export-related production, particularly in the consumption and metallurgy chains, with a 1% year-on-year increase in foreign trade road freight [4][5][114] - The overall export production index increased by 0.5 percentage points in July, indicating a potential continuation of export improvement [5][115] Group 4 - Macro leading indicators, such as a 3.3 percentage point increase in processing trade imports in June, suggest that July exports may rise to around 8% [6][92][100] - The high level of the Yiwu small commodity export price index supports the expectation of higher cross-border export growth to Europe and the UK [6][95][100] Group 5 - There are concerns about potential declines in export figures after September due to the end of "export rush," with signs of weakening in strong-performing export chains [7][100][117] - The new export PMI for metallurgy and consumption chains has shown a decline, indicating possible future decreases in export figures [7][100][117]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to Maersk's slight reduction in the price increase, the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, and the lack of significant progress in Sino - US talks, the shipping market has high uncertainty. The market is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, when the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Market Data - **SCFIS and NCFI Indexes**: On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period, and for the US - West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1%. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period, and for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64%, and for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI Indexes**: On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49%, and for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0%, for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0%, and for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% [2]. - **Futures Market**: On June 20, the main contract 2508 closed at 1890, down 6.99%, with a trading volume of 68,900 lots and an open interest of 46,000 lots, an increase of 3393 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand and Price Trends**: Although liner companies announced price increases for early July, Maersk slightly reduced the increase due to the lack of significant changes in market supply and demand. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation has increased market uncertainties, leading to a weak and volatile market [3]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, slightly higher than expected; the service PMI was 48.9, lower than expected. The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high, and the service PMI was also at a two - month high [2]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. For the 2510 contract, if trying long positions, set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rates are stronger than the long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3.4 Other Information - **Contract Adjustments**: The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%. The company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Iran condemned the US's "barbaric military aggression" against its nuclear facilities and launched a new round of missile attacks on Israel, using the "Khyber" missile for the first time [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the SCFIS index has a small increase, the 06 contract has a large premium, spot freight rates fluctuate slightly, and the market is oscillating. Given that the European line has strong macro - attributes and the recent game is difficult, and there is no substantial progress in the Sino - US talks, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise without more positive news. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [1][2]. 3. Content Summary by Aspects Freight Rate Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [1]. Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), and composite PMI flash was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [1]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [1]. Market Situation and Strategy - Crude oil dropped significantly last night. The European line has strong macro - attributes, and the recent game is difficult. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [2]. - On June 16, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.0, down 4.04%, with a trading volume of 65,900 lots and an open interest of 43,700 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from the previous day [2]. - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is mainly based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2250, and try long positions for the 2510 contract below 1450, with stop - losses set [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to the near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and the market is volatile. For now, it is mainly in a positive spread structure [2]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the market to stabilize after a pullback [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical Situation - The Middle East situation continues to escalate. Israel and Iran have launched multiple rounds of attacks on each other. Iraq supports Iran and is committed to preventing the expansion of the conflict [3].