数据显示，在高市早苗胜选之前，日元兑美元汇率自年初以来已上涨约6%，至1美元兑147.44日元。而在 高市早苗胜选后，日元再度走软，使年内涨幅缩窄至2.77%。 智通财经APP获悉，在被称为"女版安倍"的高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁并几乎已确定将出任下一任日本 首相之后，市场出现了所谓的"高市交易"，即押注高市早苗领导下的日本政府将推出大规模财政刺激措 施，并实施宽松的货币政策。这一押注推动日经225指数创下历史新高，美元兑日元汇率则升至150上方。 当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞争对手，成 功当选自民党新一任总裁。由于自民党目前仍在日本国会保持第一大党地位，高市早苗预计将在10月15日 的首相指名选举中成为日本首位女性首相。 如今，作为安倍的政治门生，高市早苗即将领导日本，同样的问题似乎又要重新浮现。高市早苗被视 为"安倍经济学"的信奉者——这是安倍晋三主导的经济战略，主张宽松货币政策、积极财政支出和结构性 改革。在去年的自民党党魁选举中，她曾批评日本央行加息计划，认为这会导致日元升值。 1美元兑150日元这一汇率水平具有心理与政治敏感性。过去，当美元兑日 ...

日经平均股指在10月9日报收于4万8580.44点，刷新历史最高纪录（10月9日，东京都中央区） 带动股市上涨的主力是软银集团（SBG）。在前一日软银集团宣布收购瑞士大型重电企业的 机器人业务，正式加入人工智能（AI）机器人开发的竞争行列。"高市交易"与"AI热潮"这两 大股价上涨驱动力交替发挥作用…… 的策略师武居大晖指出："'高市交易'与'AI热潮'这两大股价上涨驱动力交替发挥作用，投资对 象多样化，即使市场存在过热感，股价上涨也更容易持续"。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： 10月9日的东京股市中，日经平均股指反弹收高，终值较前一交易日上涨845.45点（涨幅 1.77%），报收4万8580.44点，刷新历史最高纪录。带动股市上涨的主力是软银集团 （SBG）。该公司在前一日宣布收购瑞士大型重电企业的机器人业务，正式加入人工智能 （AI）机器人开发的竞争行列。 日经平均股指在10月8日时曾时隔5个交易日首次回落，市场上也有观点认为上涨势头有所停 顿，但股市仍展现出强劲的韧性。显示股价长期趋势 ...

日本新任首相高市早苗的经济政策立场引发市场对"新安倍经济学"的预期，推动日元汇率跌破153关口，重新激起美日之间关于汇率政策的争议。 周四，美元兑日元短线拉升，现涨至153，日内涨0.2%，为2月份以来首次。这一水平被视为政治和心理上的敏感线，此前曾多次引发日本官方的 警告或干预，因其会推高进口成本，加剧家庭的生活成本压力。 这一汇率走势令人联想起特朗普此前对日本"操纵汇率"的指控。今年3月，特朗普再次点名批评日本，指控东京通过削弱货币获得不公平贸易优 势。他表示已致电日本领导人，要求停止"持续削弱和破坏货币"的做法。 如今，随着高市早苗的上台，相似的担忧可能重演。尽管市场出现了剧烈波动，但分析师指出，高市早苗在推行经济政策时可能会非常谨慎，以 避免与主要盟友美国的关系紧张。然而，日元的未来走向以及由此引发的国内通胀压力，将成为其执政初期面临的核心挑战。 "高市交易"席卷市场 市场对高市早苗的胜选做出了明显反应。日经225指数创下历史新高，而日元兑美元汇率则跌破150关口，进一步走弱至152水平。截至目前，美元 兑日元汇率已达到153.05，较前一交易日上涨0.33点。 150日元这一水平在心理和政治层面都极 ...

对于日本官员而言，150的重要关口在心理和政治上都十分敏感。此前，日本官员曾警告或干预货币市 场，因为日元跌破该点位会增加进口成本，加剧家庭的生活成本危机。 日元疲软也再次唤起了特朗普最喜欢的老调重弹：日本以牺牲美国为代价，从低估的货币中获益。 如今，随着安倍的"门徒"——高市早苗即将执掌全球第四大经济体，同样的担忧可能再次浮出水面。 高市早苗被普遍认为是"安倍经济学"的拥护者，该经济策略主张宽松货币政策、财政支出和结构性改 革。在去年执政的自民党总裁选举中，她批评了日本央行加息并增强日元的计划。 市场对此做出了反应，出现了所谓的"高市交易"，将日经225指数推向历史新高，美元兑日元汇率升破 150大关。 多年来，美国总统特朗普一直指责日本从事"不公平贸易行为"，这一批评可以追溯到他还是房地产大亨 的时候。 上周五，特朗普再次点名日本，声称东京通过削弱日元以获取不公平的贸易优势。"我曾打电话给日本 领导人，告诉他们不能继续贬值货币，"他说。 然而，分析师表示，高市早苗可能会在经济政策上谨慎行事，以避免与华盛顿关系紧张。 据报道，时任日本首相石破茂在日本国会表示，日本并未推行所谓的"货币贬值政策"，包括已故的安 ...

中信证券研报指出，我国国庆假期期间降息交易仍是海外市场主线，市场对美联储降息预期无明显变 化，美股和美元指数小幅上涨、美债小幅波动、金价再创新高。美国政府如期停摆，9月非农就业数据 延期发布，9月ISM-PMI和"小非农"ADP共同显示美国经济继续温和降温的趋势。我们延续此前观点， 预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分别再次降息25bps。当地时间10月4日，高市早苗当选日本自 民党总裁，预计她将于10月15日左右接任日本首相。高市的政策主张为"负责任的扩张性财政政策+谨 慎加息"，市场对应出现日股上涨、日债曲线陡峭化和日元贬值的"高市交易"。我们延续此前观点，预 计日银今年四季度可能加息25bps。10月7日，日本30Y国债拍卖结果显示目前市场对高市早苗可能会执 行的"宽财政"担忧尚且有限。我们预计，在此情形下，短期内日股在"高市交易"中仍有不错表现。 ...

资料图 由于市场担忧日本自民党总裁高市早苗重视的积极财政与宽松货币政策，投资者持续卖出日 元，出现了所谓的"高市交易" …… 在10月7日的纽约外汇市场上，日元对美元汇率一度跌至1美元兑152日元区间，这是自2月中 旬以来约8个月来首次触及该水平。由于市场担忧日本自民党总裁高市早苗重视的积极财政与 宽松货币政策，投资者持续卖出日元，出现了所谓的"高市交易"。 在日元兑欧元的汇率方面，日元更创下历史新低。一度触及1欧元兑177.10日元区间，为 1999年欧元诞生以来的日元贬值、欧元升值水平。 高市的经济智囊之一、前内阁官房参与本田悦朗6日接受彭博社采访时表示："如果日元兑美 元超过150日元，或许就稍有些过头了"。受此言论影响，7日日元一度回升至150日元区间， 但进入纽约交易时段后，日元卖盘再次占据主导。 推动日元持续贬值的背景，是市场普遍认为日本的宽松金融环境仍将持续。本田在采访中也 显示出认识称，日本银行（央行）在10月29日至30日召开的货币政策会议上"要加息恐怕很 难"。 高市早在去年的自民党总裁选举中就曾表示："现在加息是愚蠢的"，以此牵制日银的尽快加 息。她在10月4日的发言中再次强调："（对金 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, with limited short-term economic impact expected, as most losses are projected to be recovered post-shutdown[1] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone rose to 6.3% in September, higher than the expected 6.2%[25] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, is expected to continue a loose fiscal and monetary policy, impacting market dynamics positively[28] Employment Data - In September, ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 52,000[6] - Revelio Labs reported an increase of 60,000 jobs in September, slightly above market expectations, indicating a mixed employment landscape[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.77% and the Nasdaq up 1.24% from September 30 to October 6[2] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index surged by 6.70% following the election of Kishi Sanae, reflecting investor optimism[2] Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with market probabilities for a 25 basis point cut in October and December rising significantly[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to maintaining current interest rates despite rising unemployment and inflation data[25] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold rising by 2.80% and silver by 3.95% during the same period[2] - Oil prices experienced a slight decline of 1.09%, while natural gas prices increased by 1.63%[2] Risks and Uncertainties - There is a risk of an unexpected degree of economic recession overseas, which could impact global markets[2]

10月6日周一，港股三大指数集体回调。截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.68%，报26957.77点，恒生科技指数跌1.09%，国企指数跌0.88%。盘面上，科网股普跌， 哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴、京东、小米、联想跌超2%，网易、快手跌超1%，百度涨近1%。 板块中，贵金属表现亮眼。其中，中国白银集团上涨18.57%，坛金矿业和珠峰黄金涨幅也分别高达15.38%和15.13%，山东黄金、招金矿业等个股涨幅居 前。 值得一提的是，港股市场在国庆假期迎来10月"开门红"。10月2日恒生指数大涨超500点，突破27000点整数关口，创下四年多来新高。恒生科技指数同样 表现强劲，突破6700点，涨幅超3%。在没有"北向"资金的情况下，港股依然走出独立行情，科技、半导体、黄金及锂电板块集体爆发，展现了港股市场 的强劲韧性和吸引力。 业内人士指出，次轮行情受到国产芯片技术突破和全球算力需求增长的双重推动，半导体板块成为市场领头羊。中芯国际此前单日暴涨12.7%，股价创历 史新高；华虹半导体涨幅超过7%，年内累计涨幅接近3倍。同时，当前市场受到政策面和资金面的共同推动。港交所推出的"科企专线"政策，为科技和生 物医药企业上市提供便利，进一 ...

Market Performance - Japanese stock market surged on October 6, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 4.8% at 47,944.76 points and the Topix index rising 3.1% to 3,226.06 points, both reaching historical closing highs [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 2% during the day, reaching 150.43, marking the highest level since August 1 [3] Political Developments - Sanae Takaichi was elected as the first female president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan, supporting expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may heighten concerns over increased bond supply and lower expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4][5] - Takaichi's election is expected to lead to discussions on economic issues, high prices, and international security within the party [6] Economic Implications - Following Takaichi's victory, the Japanese capital market experienced a phenomenon termed "Takaichi trading," with bets on her election leading to bullish sentiment in stocks and bearish sentiment in Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds [6] - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate to the 150-160 range against the dollar, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is likely to slow down [7] Bond Market Reactions - The Japanese bond market showed significant volatility, with concerns over future fiscal expansion pushing long-term interest rates higher; the yield on 40-year government bonds surged by 14 basis points to 3.52% [8] - Takaichi's policies are expected to complicate the Bank of Japan's rate hike strategy, potentially leading to a flattening of the yield curve [8] Economic Challenges - Japan faces multiple pressures, including rising prices, a declining population, and economic stagnation, which complicate the political landscape and the ability of the new LDP president to establish a stable governance foundation [8][10] - A report indicated that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to see price increases in October, following a previous surge in April, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is expected to lead to significant changes in fiscal and monetary policies, potentially impacting the Japanese economy and financial markets [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the election results, the Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.8%, closing at 47,944.76 points, while the Topix index rose by 3.1%, reaching 3,226.06 points, both marking historical closing highs [2]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 2% during the day, reaching 150.43, the highest level since August 1 [2]. - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds hit a record high of 3.29% [2]. Political Implications - Takaichi's election is seen as a move towards more aggressive fiscal policies and increased defense spending, which may raise concerns about increased bond supply and lower expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4]. - The upcoming extraordinary Diet session on October 15 will likely confirm Takaichi as the new Prime Minister, despite the LDP being a minority in both houses of the Diet [4]. Economic Challenges - Japan faces multiple economic pressures, including rising prices, a declining population, and economic stagnation, which complicate the political landscape for the new LDP president [6][7]. - A report indicated that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to see price increases in October, following a previous surge in April [6]. - The manufacturing sector is also under pressure, with the PMI for September recorded at 48.4, indicating continued contraction [6]. Investor Sentiment - The market has already begun to react to Takaichi's anticipated policies, with a trend of "Takaichi trading" emerging, where investors bet on her election by buying stocks and shorting Japanese government bonds [5]. - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate to the 150-160 range against the dollar, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike pace will likely slow down [5].