卓创资讯禽蛋产业链高级分析师刘旭 【导语】9月份全国鸡蛋需求量普遍增多，仍有一定供应压力，鸡蛋价格呈上涨趋势，但低于去年同 期，饲料成本基本维持稳定，蛋鸡养殖扭亏为盈。10月份鸡蛋价格或呈现先稳后跌趋势，饲料成本下降 空间不大，预计10月份养殖盈利空间或缩小。 9月份全国鸡蛋价格上涨，使养殖行业扭亏为盈 进入需求旺季，9月份全国鸡蛋市场供需矛盾得到缓解，各消费途径需求量均有不同时间、不同程度的 增多，鸡蛋价格普遍上涨至成本线之上，养殖收入增多。另一方面，由于饲料原料价格波动不大，饲料 成本仍维持低位震荡，月底微低于月初，9月多数时间鸡蛋收入高于养殖支出，蛋鸡养殖扭亏为盈。截 至9月25日，全国鸡蛋月均价3.49元/斤，环比涨幅14.05%；单斤鸡蛋饲料月均成本3.03元，环比微跌 0.33%。 需求旺季缓解蛋市供需矛盾，饲料原料价格微幅下跌 鸡蛋市场供应仍有压力，但需求改善较明显，供需矛盾缓解，蛋价普遍上涨。根据卓创资讯监测的数据 显示，8月底全国产蛋鸡存栏量继续增加至13.65亿只，同比涨幅6.06%，为2021年以来的存栏最高值。9 月份产区鸡群日龄普遍偏小，同时业者预期尚可，去产能速度偏慢，因此9月份全 ...

农产品板块研发报告 鸡蛋 10 月报 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、基本面情况 | | 3 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 8 | | | 免责声明 | | 8 | 最近市场走货开始有所放缓，个别地区仍有一定节日备货影响走货尚 可。根据当前基本面来看，短期蛋价反弹主要受双节备货影响，但近期随着 节日备货的结束，鸡蛋现货价格开始有所回落。 期货方面来看，虽然供应端压力较大且现货价格已经开始下跌，但是当 前整个期货近月价格相对偏低且持仓量仍然较大，预计临近限仓盘面波动较 大，期货价格不一定跟随现货价格下跌。 【策略推荐】 2025 年 9 月 26 节前备货进入尾声 蛋价或将承压走弱 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 9 月鸡蛋现货价格走势偏强，主产区均价最高涨至 3.81 元/斤附近后随 着旺季备货逐渐进入尾声开始有企稳迹象，主销区涨至 3.82 元/斤附近后有 所稳定 ...

走势上看，9月中旬鸡蛋价格再度走低。截至9月24日全国主产区鸡蛋均价3.62元／斤，较月初涨幅 16.77%，较月内高点回落3.47%。 展望后市，李阳表示，国庆、中秋双节临近，食品厂双节采购基本结束。下游贸易商避险情绪也增强， 或减少在产地拿货量，刚需采购为主。因此，预计9月下旬鸡蛋需求量或整体下滑。在此背景下，预示 着中秋节前鸡蛋价格再涨动力或不足。 据卓创资讯分析师李阳介绍，临近双节，部分产区内销需求或逐渐启动，内销采购量将增加，对鸡蛋市 场有一定提振作用。 不过，受存栏高、鸡蛋供应充足压制，蛋价水平仍不及去年同期。 新华财经北京9月25日电 9月中上旬鸡蛋价格整体上涨，日均价由月初的3.10元／斤涨至17日的3.75元／ 斤，累计上涨0.65元／斤，累计涨幅20.97%。期货盘面上，鸡蛋期价也在月初走出了一轮近300元／500 千克的反弹，最高触及3197元／500千克，现仍维持在3000元／500千克的关口上方。 分析认为，需求好转是拉动本月鸡蛋价格走高的主要原因。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: Demand Boosted, Egg Prices Stable with an Uptrend" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is influenced by multiple factors including supply, demand, cost, and seasonal events. Currently, the supply is relatively high, but demand has been boosted by school openings, festivals, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival备货. However, the market still faces challenges such as high production capacity and average external sales. Overall, the egg price is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term and remains under the influence of supply - demand dynamics [5][10][17] Summary by Directory First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main consuming areas, it was 3.37 yuan/jin, also up 0.19 yuan/jin. Egg prices rose due to the Mid - Autumn Festival备货 and other factors, but the overall备货 scale was less than in previous years, and the high price might appear this week. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From September 4th, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.89 million, a 3.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, a 1 - day decrease from the previous week. In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in August was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. The estimated in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 is 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of September 4th, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3084 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2577 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin for eggs. As of September 5th, the weekly average egg profit was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week. On August 29th, the expected egg - laying hen farming profit was 5.89 yuan/hen, a 2.05 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - Affected by school openings and the Mid - Autumn Festival, the sales volume in the consuming areas increased. As of August 21st, the national representative consuming area egg sales volume was 7439 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. As of September 4th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.93 days, a 0.13 - day decrease from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a 0.09 - day decrease from the previous week. The vegetable price index slightly rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [16] 5. Trading Strategies - The supply - side pressure has been slightly relieved, but the in - production inventory is still high, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. In September, demand is expected to increase due to pre - festival stocking, and the spot price may rise slightly. For trading, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - This part mainly presents data charts related to egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen farming situation, and price spreads and basis, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [20][24][28]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) phenomenon due to dual pressures from supply and demand, leading to a significant decline in egg prices despite the traditional peak season approaching [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 29, the main contract for egg futures closed at 2939 yuan/ton, a nearly 11% drop from July 31, indicating a bearish outlook for egg prices driven by supply factors [2][3]. - The average egg price in major production areas was reported at 3.22 yuan/kg, while in major sales areas it was 3.15 yuan/kg, marking a six-year low [3]. - Increased production capacity due to a long-term profitable environment for egg-laying hens has led to a sustained growth in egg supply, with the number of laying hens exceeding 1.3 billion [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The current bearish sentiment in the market is exacerbated by a slow pace of downstream procurement, as consumer demand is affected by a late Mid-Autumn Festival and a decline in restaurant consumption [3][4]. - The egg futures market has seen a record high in positions held, indicating a significant concentration of capital that amplifies price declines [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be a temporary increase in demand due to school and festival preparations, it is unlikely to offset the high supply pressure [5][6]. Future Outlook - The egg market is expected to face continued pressure, with any potential rebound in prices being limited due to high inventory levels and the need for time to digest cold storage eggs [5][6]. - The reduction in the age of hens being culled is a positive sign, but historical data indicates that a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics will take longer to materialize [6].

Core Insights - The current egg prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with prices in major production areas remaining stable or showing minor declines [1][2] - The average daily inventory levels for eggs in production and circulation are stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [3] Price Overview - Shandong egg price is 6.35 CNY/kg, Hebei is 6.24 CNY/kg (down 0.08 CNY), Guangdong is 6.40 CNY/kg, and Beijing is 7.00 CNY/kg (down 0.10 CNY) [1] - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 2930.00 CNY/500kg, with a decline of 2.24% [2] Supply and Inventory - The number of eliminated chickens has increased in recent weeks, with figures of 16.76 million, 14.42 million, and 13.71 million respectively [3] - Average inventory levels are 1.06 days in production and 1.10 days in circulation, indicating a slight decrease in circulation inventory [3] Market Analysis - The upcoming school season and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to boost demand, leading to a slight improvement in egg sales [4] - Despite a potential short-term price rebound due to reduced inventory, the overall supply remains high, limiting significant price increases [4]

近几年蛋鸡存栏量逐步攀升，鸡蛋供应基数持续增加，当对外销售路径承压、需求提升不易情况下，压 力则会反向作用于供应内部，引起饲养品种转变、大小码价差缩减等养殖端的破局。 目前来看，养殖单位补栏谨慎，出栏积极性提升，去产能拐点或即将出现，后期供应端对鸡蛋价格的压 力或存缓解可能。但基于供应基数较大，因此预计今年三四季度鸡蛋价格水平仍将低于往年同期。 供应仍处上升周期，鸡蛋市场"量增价减" 根据数据分析，鸡蛋月均价与产蛋鸡存栏量具有中度负相关关系。从2019-2025年产蛋鸡存栏量趋势变 化来看，目前存栏量处在新周期的上升阶段，因此随着鸡蛋供应压力逐步加码，鸡蛋价格震荡走低。截 至8月22日，7月、8月鸡蛋月均价分别为2.89元／斤、3.04元／斤，同比跌幅分别为33.41%、36%。 进入2025年，单斤鸡蛋的饲料成本呈现低位反弹趋势，较去年成本降低1.63%，养殖单位成本压力不 大，但年内鸡蛋价格走低，导致单斤鸡蛋利润多呈亏损状态，即使三季度需求迎来旺季，也仍未扭转养 殖亏损局面，养殖单位亏损周期拉长。 卓创资讯监测显示，截至8月22日单斤鸡蛋月均饲料成本3.04元，环比增幅0.33%，同比增幅1.33%；单 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (weak peak season) with continuously declining egg prices [1] - The egg-laying industry is currently facing a situation of abundant supply, weak demand, and intensified cost competition, necessitating close attention to the transmission of profits to production capacity [1] - It is anticipated that egg prices will not see significant improvement in the fourth quarter, and the ongoing low spot prices may lead to a lack of enthusiasm for restocking, which could benefit the recovery of egg prices in the first half of next year [1]

Industry Overview - The domestic futures market for eggs has seen a continuous decline, with the main contract price dropping to 3070 yuan per 500 kg, marking the lowest point since October 2016 [1] - Since 2025, egg prices have shown a downward trend, decreasing by 30% compared to the peak price in October 2024 [2] - As of August 18, 2025, the average egg price in major production areas was 3.26 yuan per jin, while in major sales areas it was 3.13 yuan per jin, both reaching new lows not seen in the past decade [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of laying hens is significantly exceeding demand, with the number of laying hens at approximately 1.3 billion, remaining at a high level compared to the past five years [2] - Despite being the traditional peak season for eggs, prices have fallen to near historical lows, with the average market price dropping to 2.98 yuan per jin [3] - The current market conditions have led to cautious purchasing behavior among slaughterhouses, with small producers halting purchases at 5 yuan per jin, resulting in a reduced operating rate [2][3] Company Performance - Despite the overall weak performance of egg prices, Xiaoming Co., which specializes in egg production and hatching, reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 751 million yuan, a 93.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 185 million yuan, up 733.34% [3] - The average selling price of Xiaoming's chicken products increased by approximately 1.23 yuan per bird, representing a 40.33% rise compared to the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in gross profit margin [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slowdown in the growth of laying hen stocks in the second half of 2025, but supply will remain ample [4] - There is an expectation for egg prices to rise before the Mid-Autumn Festival, although the potential for significant price increases is limited due to ongoing supply dominance [4] - The market is also influenced by the prices of alternative products, such as vegetables and pork, which are currently at relatively low levels, further constraining the potential for unexpected price increases in eggs [4]