鸡蛋周报：需求不及预期 蛋价稳中有落 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 87/87/87 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价3元/斤，较上周五变化不大，主销区均价3.22元/斤，较上周五变化不大。周内全国鸡蛋市场上半 周市场情绪稍有好转，盼涨 ...

来源：饲料市场 对于12月行情，业内普遍判断是"震荡上行，但空间有限"。 供应方面出现好转迹象：11月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量环比下降0.31%，预计12月存栏量将继续回落。这意 味着市场供应压力有所缓解，但总体仍处高位。 需求端有望温和复苏：受"双12"和元旦前备货拉动，食品企业将启动节前生产，预计鸡蛋销量环比增长 5%-8%。 综合判断，12月鸡蛋价格将呈现前稳后升走势，主产区月均价预计在3.10-3.20元/斤区间，月内高点有 望触及3.30-3.40元/斤。 各位养殖户朋友们，12月刚开头，鸡蛋市场就传来新动静——多个产区蛋价悄悄站上了3元大关。这是 否意味着持续数月的低价阴霾即将散去？今天，就带大家看清12月鸡蛋价格的真正走势。 一、当前市场：低位回暖，涨势初现 最新行情显示，主产区鸡蛋均价已回升至3.09元/斤，北京新发地等主要销区价格也达到3.07-3.18元/ 斤。这一波反弹来之不易。 回想11月，蛋价一度跌至2.7-2.8元/斤，创下近三年同期新低，养殖户亏损面扩大，淘汰老鸡的积极性 明显提升。正是11月的深跌为12月的反弹创造了条件。随着价格触底，贸易商开始补库，加上天冷利于 储存，市场走货加快 ...

因此，"短线鸡蛋市场供需博弈，鸡蛋价格或延续底部震荡，虽然不排除部分阶段有低价补货现象推动 价格上涨，但整体或维持涨跌两难局面。"李阳认为，不过，12月随着节假日因素增加，供需环境或缓 慢改善，对鸡蛋价格或有利多影响。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据卓创资讯分析师李阳介绍，10月起产蛋鸡存栏出现下降拐点，但基于目前供应端产能基数仍较高，因 此供应减少对市场的利多支撑暂不明显。同时，月内鸡蛋需求进入消费淡季，叠加年内养殖、贸易环节 盈利承压，整体需求端对后市信心不足，淡季模式暂难扭转。 新华财经北京11月20日电 10月下旬以来，国内鸡蛋价格略显企稳回升，但期现货表现有所差异。盘面 上看，在10月前半月弱势下探至逾五年低点之后，鸡蛋期货价格在下旬主力换月后强势回升，进入11月 以来则进一步延续反弹走势。截至11月20日，鸡蛋主力合约期价较10月末上涨约100元/500千克。相比 之下，鸡蛋现货仍旧偏弱。截至11月19日，全国鸡蛋均价为2.82元／斤，较月初跌幅2.42%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient in October, leading to a slight decrease in prices compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In the first week of November, egg prices continued to decline, with a weekly decrease of approximately 4% [3] - The wholesale price of eggs in October was reported at 7.63 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.56% [6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current high supply of eggs is attributed to a significant increase in modern large-scale chicken farms in major production areas over the past two years, maintaining a situation where supply exceeds demand [3] - The consumption of eggs is currently in a seasonal decline following the National Day holiday, contributing to the downward price trend [4] - The number of laying hens in production is expected to remain stable, making it difficult to reverse the high supply situation in the short term [8]

Core Viewpoints - The egg futures market is experiencing a short-term upward trend, with institutions suggesting a cautious approach and potential short-selling opportunities in the future [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall egg price in the country is stabilizing, with seasonal patterns indicating potential price fluctuations due to inventory and supply pressures [1] - The supply side shows a strengthening price gap between large and small eggs, attributed to the accelerated culling of older hens and an increase in new laying hens, primarily of imported breeds [1] - Demand remains steady, with traders mostly purchasing eggs as needed, leading to minimal inventory changes and a lack of proactive stocking behavior [1][2] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Institutions expect the egg market to maintain a strong short-term trend, with a focus on potential short-selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [2] - The current high inventory levels and low chick replenishment rates are expected to improve long-term supply forecasts, despite the existing high price premiums in future contracts [2] - The sentiment in the market is shifting positively due to upcoming consumption events like Double Eleven and pre-holiday stocking, which may lead to increased inventory accumulation [3]

Core Viewpoint - In October 2025, the egg prices experienced a seasonal decline, with expectations for a transitional recovery in supply and demand in November and December [1][2]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.96 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.95% [2][4]. - Historically, October has seen price declines in 9 out of the last 10 years, with the seasonal index for October 2025 at 0.85, indicating a typical seasonal drop [2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - High supply levels have pressured egg prices below previous years, with the number of laying hens reaching a peak of 1.368 billion by September [4]. - Demand has decreased due to the end of holiday effects, leading to a seasonal decline in consumption, with sales in major consumption areas dropping by 3.88% month-on-month and 10.67% year-on-year by the fourth week of October [5][6]. Price Recovery Factors - The rebound in egg prices in late October was driven by three main factors: reaching a price level that encouraged replenishment, rising vegetable prices improving egg demand, and lower temperatures allowing for inventory management [4][6]. - Despite some recovery, overall demand remains limited, making it difficult to support a significant increase in total demand [5][6]. Future Price Expectations - The egg price is expected to face short-term pressure but may see long-term recovery, with a slight increase in laying hen numbers anticipated in November and December [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 2.80 and 3.10 yuan per jin, while the overall price level in late 2025 and early 2026 is likely to remain low compared to previous years [7].

Core Viewpoint - In September, the demand for eggs increased across the country, alleviating supply pressure and leading to a rise in egg prices, although still lower than the same period last year. Feed costs remained stable, allowing egg production to turn profitable. In October, egg prices are expected to stabilize initially before declining, with a potential reduction in profit margins for producers [1][8]. Group 1: Egg Market Dynamics - The national average price of eggs reached 3.49 yuan per jin by September 25, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.05% [1][3]. - The average cost of feed for eggs was 3.03 yuan per jin, showing a slight decrease of 0.33% month-on-month [1][3]. - The total number of laying hens increased to 1.365 billion by the end of August, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.06%, the highest level since 2021 [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for eggs improved significantly due to seasonal factors, including increased purchases by schools and food companies ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][8]. - Despite the increase in demand, there remains some supply pressure, particularly from cold storage eggs entering the market [3][8]. - The egg production rate is expected to stabilize as temperatures drop, contributing to higher egg output [3]. Group 3: Feed Cost Trends - The price of soybean meal decreased by 3.92% compared to the beginning of the month, which slightly reduced feed costs [5][7]. - The average feed cost for eggs was reported at 3.01 yuan per jin, a minor decrease of 0.66% from the start of the month [5][7]. - Corn prices remained stable, with no significant changes observed in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In October, egg prices are anticipated to stabilize initially before experiencing a decline, with potential prices dropping to between 3.00 and 3.20 yuan per jin [8][9]. - The profit margin for egg producers is expected to shrink as feed costs may decrease at a slower rate than egg prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly affected by the double - festival stocking. As the festival stocking ends, egg prices are expected to decline. The futures price may not necessarily follow the spot price down. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [5][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the spot price of eggs showed a strong trend. The average price in the main production areas reached a maximum of around 3.81 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas, it reached around 3.82 yuan per catty. The futures contract of eggs also performed strongly, but the increase was limited due to the high inventory of laying hens [4][11] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the market sales have slowed down. The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly due to the double - festival stocking. As the stocking ends, the spot price of eggs has begun to fall. Although the supply pressure is high and the spot price has dropped, the near - month futures price is relatively low and the trading volume is large. It is expected that the futures price may not follow the spot price down [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see and trade at an appropriate time. Arbitrage and options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6][9] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the market review in the first part, in September, the spot price of eggs was strong, and the futures price increased but with limited amplitude due to high inventory [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply side**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The inventory of laying hens from September to December 2025 is estimated to be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively. In September, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 38%, medium - sized eggs was 44%, and small - sized eggs was 18%. The egg - laying rate in September was about 91.11%, and it is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather. In August, the number of chicks hatched by sample enterprises decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year. The price of chicks in September was at a low level in the same period over the years. The market's enthusiasm for culling laying hens first increased and then decreased [12][14] - **Demand side**: In September, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak season was not as good as previous years. As of the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas increased by 5% week - on - week but was at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the catering revenue in August increased by 2.1% year - on - year [21] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [21] - **Cost and profit**: The current feed cost has little change. In September, the price of corn was 2358 yuan per ton, and the price of soybean meal dropped to 3038 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2562 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.81 yuan per catty of eggs. As of September 18, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.45 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.3 yuan per catty from the previous week. On September 18, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 2.97 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [24] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price index continued to rise, but it was at a relatively low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated with little overall change, and the substitution demand for eggs was relatively limited [30] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply side**: The supply pressure is still significant. The rebound of egg prices has improved the breeding profit, and the enthusiasm for culling has decreased. The number of culled hens is at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years, and the age of culled hens has increased. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high [34] - **Demand side**: As the seasonal stocking ends, the boost to egg prices is limited. The market sales have slowed down, but some areas still have good sales due to festival stocking [34] - **Feed cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs is about 2.8 yuan per catty. The prices of corn and soybean meal have little change, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: As the holiday expectations end, the spot price of eggs is expected to fall. The near - month futures contract is significantly lower than the spot price, and the futures and spot prices will converge in the short term. It is a capacity - reduction cycle in the second half of the year, but the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [34]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price of eggs has increased significantly in mid-September, with an average daily price rising from 3.10 yuan per jin at the beginning of the month to 3.75 yuan per jin by the 17th, marking a cumulative increase of 0.65 yuan per jin, or 20.97% [1][2]. Price Trends - The egg futures market also experienced a rebound, with prices rising nearly 300 yuan per 500 kilograms at the beginning of the month, peaking at 3197 yuan per 500 kilograms, and currently maintaining above 3000 yuan per 500 kilograms [1]. - As of September 24, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 3.62 yuan per jin, reflecting a 16.77% increase from the beginning of the month but a 3.47% decline from the monthly high [2]. Demand Factors - Improved demand is identified as the primary driver for the rise in egg prices this month, particularly due to the upcoming double festival, which is expected to boost domestic purchasing volumes [2]. - However, high inventory levels and sufficient egg supply are suppressing price levels compared to the same period last year [2]. Future Outlook - With the double festival approaching, food manufacturers have largely completed their procurement, and downstream traders are exhibiting increased risk aversion, likely reducing their purchasing volumes from production areas [2]. - Consequently, it is anticipated that the overall demand for eggs may decline in late September, indicating insufficient momentum for further price increases before the Mid-Autumn Festival [2].

Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: Demand Boosted, Egg Prices Stable with an Uptrend" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is influenced by multiple factors including supply, demand, cost, and seasonal events. Currently, the supply is relatively high, but demand has been boosted by school openings, festivals, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival备货. However, the market still faces challenges such as high production capacity and average external sales. Overall, the egg price is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term and remains under the influence of supply - demand dynamics [5][10][17] Summary by Directory First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main consuming areas, it was 3.37 yuan/jin, also up 0.19 yuan/jin. Egg prices rose due to the Mid - Autumn Festival备货 and other factors, but the overall备货 scale was less than in previous years, and the high price might appear this week. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From September 4th, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.89 million, a 3.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, a 1 - day decrease from the previous week. In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in August was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. The estimated in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 is 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of September 4th, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3084 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2577 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin for eggs. As of September 5th, the weekly average egg profit was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week. On August 29th, the expected egg - laying hen farming profit was 5.89 yuan/hen, a 2.05 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - Affected by school openings and the Mid - Autumn Festival, the sales volume in the consuming areas increased. As of August 21st, the national representative consuming area egg sales volume was 7439 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. As of September 4th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.93 days, a 0.13 - day decrease from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a 0.09 - day decrease from the previous week. The vegetable price index slightly rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [16] 5. Trading Strategies - The supply - side pressure has been slightly relieved, but the in - production inventory is still high, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. In September, demand is expected to increase due to pre - festival stocking, and the spot price may rise slightly. For trading, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - This part mainly presents data charts related to egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen farming situation, and price spreads and basis, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [20][24][28]