交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2026 年 2 月 27 日 医药行业周报 ASCO GU 大会召开在即，板块波动中持续看好低估创新标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY26E | | | FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E | | | | | | | | | ...

2025年，医药板块可谓"风头无两"。 BD交易额创下新高、政策暖风频吹、国产创新药在国际上频频出圈，医药板块一度站上市场【C 位】，成为投资者眼中的香饽饽。 但随着"预告式BD"越来越多，市场对创新药出海的期待也有些审美疲劳。 大家开始更关心：首付款值不值？管线实不实？临床推进顺不顺？医药板块也随之从"高光时刻"转 向"震荡调整"。 但这种转变，其实正是板块走向长期行情的必经之路。 需求端：医疗是"刚需"，增长不止 医药行业的底层驱动力，始终是需求。 人口老龄化、健康意识提升，让医疗消费从"可选"变"必选"。慢病管理、肿瘤治疗、罕见病用药……需 求正在"升级+扩容"。 与此同时，我国医疗卫生支出占GDP的比重还有很大提升空间。随着收入增长和医保体系完善，这个比 重"缺口"或是未来的增长空间。 供给端：中国创新药，正在走向世界 进入2026年，医药板块正在悄悄回暖——政策暖风、基本面修复、估值回归合理……种种迹象似乎都在 说：医药，或许正站在新一轮周期的起点上。 那么问题来了：想抓住这波医药复苏机会，怎么布局更高效？ 于2026年2月24日起发售的恒生生物科技ETF华泰柏瑞（认购代码：513933，交易代码： ...

"我买了点医药ETF，从2025年年中慢慢加仓到现在差不多1万元，期待马年创新药还有一波春季行情"，90后小宇（化名）告诉 21世纪经济报道记者。 另一位95后投资者天天（化名）则告诉21世纪经济报道记者，相比传统的制药概念股，"我更看重有消费属性的医疗服务概念， 跟爱尔眼科看眼睛、通策医疗看牙齿是一个道理，毕竟这些刚需还在"。 在投资社区上，不乏网友分享投资医药股的心路历程，"恒瑞医药持有了三年，之前一直处于亏损状态，持有成本58元，漫长的 亏损期真的让人无比难受，但是买入以后没有做任何动作，（2025年）终于等到了盈利的一天"。 随着不少创新药、CXO、高端医疗器械等药企的确定性业绩，助推细分赛道获得市场追捧。 Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月31日，共有283只医药股披露了2025年业绩预告。按预告归母净利润上限看，有160只个股归母净 利润同比增长，占比超五成，释放积极信号，尤其是创新药、CXO、高端医疗器械等细分赛道各有亮点。 在核心产品商业化放量驱动下，不少创新药企从"投入期"步入"收获期"，业绩确定性逐步获得财报验证。 例如，老牌ADC药企荣昌生物预计2025年归母净利润约7.16亿元，而上 ...

近年来，生物科技产业全面步入高速成长期，已成为引领全球科技革命与产业变革的关键赛道，持续吸 引海内外资金加速布局。马年伊始，恒生生物科技ETF华泰柏瑞（认购代码：513933，交易代码： 513930）于2026年2月24日起正式发售，为投资者提供一键布局港股生物科技核心资产的便捷投资工 具。 聚焦产业创新龙头，重点覆盖创新药+CXO方向 从成分股业务构成来看，指数高度聚焦创新药与CXO两大核心方向，合计权重接近90%，创新属性突 出。与此同时，指数还覆盖了AI+医疗等前沿领域优质标的，在精准捕捉医药赛道创新核心环节的同 时，映射中国生物科技产业的整体发展趋势。 凭借较高的创新药+CXO含量及鲜明的科技创新属性，恒生生物科技指数在2025年以来港股医药板块行 情中表现突出。截至2026年2月6日，该指数累计涨幅达76.52%，不仅跑赢同期恒生指数（32.40%）， 也显著超越恒生医疗保健（67.97%）、港股通医疗（34.21%）及恒生港股通创新药指数（70.43%）等 其他港股医药类指数，充分彰显其投资价值与成长弹性。 值得关注的是，截至2026年2月6日，恒生生物科技指数市盈率（PE-TTM）为29.60 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Neutral" rating, with specific company ratings of "Buy" for Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276) and "Increase" for WuXi Biologics (603259) [46] Core Insights - The recent national drug procurement has been stable, with active participation from companies and continued benefits for patients [8][9] - The issuance of the "National Basic Drug Directory Management Measures" aims to enhance the management of essential medicines [10][11] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported positive top-line results for its GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist, indicating significant weight loss in clinical trials [12] - The approval of Mu Feng Da® for the treatment of adult type 2 diabetes marks a significant development in the market [12] Industry News - The national drug procurement involved 316 commonly used drugs across 26 therapeutic areas, with a high participation rate from over 5,100 medical institutions and 1,091 companies [8][9] - The procurement process has been standardized, allowing companies to bid online once for nationwide sales, significantly reducing costs [9] - The management measures for the national basic drug directory have been revised to include legal policy bases and optimize the directory structure [10][11] Company Announcements - Innovent Biologics has entered a global strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance new drug development in oncology and immunology [26] - Kelun Pharmaceutical's TROP2 ADC has received approval for a fourth indication from the NMPA [27] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's drug has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy products, and its application for marketing approval has been accepted for priority review [28] - WuXi Biologics has forecasted a positive earnings outlook, expecting a revenue increase of approximately 16.7% [30] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.37%, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index up by 0.23% [36] - The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 51.17, with a valuation premium of 259% compared to the CSI 300 [40] Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, while also monitoring performance recovery indicators [46]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with limited disruptions, and institutions are increasing their positions in innovative companies, maintaining a positive outlook on undervalued innovative targets [1][4] - The overall market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development transactions, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2026, despite potential short-term volatility [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, ranking second among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - Since Q4 2025, the proportion of domestic capital holding pharmaceutical stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect has slightly decreased, while foreign capital holdings have increased [32] - As of February 10, 2026, domestic holdings were at 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points, while foreign holdings rose to 39.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [32] Sales Performance - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical market sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with public hospitals accounting for the largest market share at 10,977 billion RMB, down 2.1% [5] - Retail pharmacy sales reached 5,878 billion RMB, growing by 2.4%, with online pharmacies seeing a significant increase of 13.6% [5] National Procurement - The recent national procurement round had a high selection rate of 93%, with 1,020 products from 1,091 participating companies expected to be implemented by the end of March 2026 [5] - The procurement process has seen increased participation and a diverse range of selected products, ensuring stability in clinical demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like Sanofi and Hengrui Medicine, which have rich catalysts and clear long-term growth logic [4] - It also suggests looking into CXO companies benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [4]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with a high selection rate of 93%, indicating a positive outlook for innovative companies in the sector [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development (BD) transactions, suggesting a continuation of the positive trend in 2026 despite potential short-term volatility [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamentals and valuations when selecting stocks, particularly undervalued innovative companies that have been overlooked during market fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, outperforming the broader market [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - As of February 10, 2026, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect slightly decreased to 22.2%, while foreign holdings increased to 39.7%, indicating a shift towards more positive sentiment among foreign investors [32] - Key increases in holdings were noted in leading CXO companies benefiting from demand recovery, such as Tigermed and WuXi AppTec [37][38] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with notable buy ratings for AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and others, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the healthcare sector is reported at 28.4 times, with specific segments like biopharmaceuticals at 13.1 times [16] Sales Trends - The report notes a 1% year-on-year decline in China's pharmaceutical market sales for 2025, with significant variations across different sales channels [5] - Public hospitals accounted for the largest market share but experienced a 2.1% decline, while retail pharmacies saw a 2.4% increase, driven by online sales growth [5] Procurement Insights - The recent national procurement round involved 316 commonly used drugs, with a high participation rate and diverse product offerings, ensuring stable clinical supply [5] - The procurement process has been refined to enhance quality and reliability, with stricter requirements for participating companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][33]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase of 0.14% in the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.27% [3][2]. - The report highlights the implementation of the "Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2026-2030)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, aiming to enhance the supply chain and technological advancements in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [11][12]. - Key pharmaceutical products such as Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide are projected to generate significant sales, with estimates of $36.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 99% year-on-year growth for the diabetes version and a 175% growth for the weight loss version [15][17]. - The report notes active licensing and collaboration in the industry, with significant deals such as a $1.5 billion agreement between Saint's RNAi therapy and Genentech, and various other collaborations involving companies like Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Baiyunguan [18][20]. Market Performance Summary - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is reported at 29.6 times earnings, ranking 13th among 31 sectors [4][14]. - The performance of various sub-sectors includes: - Raw materials (+0.6%) - Traditional Chinese Medicine (+2.6%) - Chemical preparations (-0.8%) - Medical devices (+0.1%) [4][3]. Key Events and Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of the new plan for traditional Chinese medicine, which includes goals such as establishing 60 high-standard raw material production bases and developing 10 major traditional Chinese medicine products by 2030 [12][11]. - Notable company developments include: - Eli Lilly's projected revenue growth driven by Tirzepatide [15]. - And the announcement of significant profit forecasts from Heptares Pharmaceuticals, indicating a shift towards profitability [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies related to traditional Chinese medicine, such as Zoli Pharmaceutical and Yunnan Baiyao, as well as innovative drug companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Bai Jie Shen Zhou [2][18].

证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/09） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.09） 宏观及策略研究 关注资金变动，把握品种利差——利率债 2 月投资策略展望 经济预期分化，市场波动加剧——宏观经济周报 行业研究 业绩预告密集披露，关注改善标的——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2026/02/09） 宏观及策略研究 关注资金变动，把握品种利差——利率债 2 月投资策略展望 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、2026 年 1 月市场回顾 资金价格：2026 年 1 月，央行各项工具流动性净投放 1.2 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月增加近 4000 亿元，其中， 买断式逆回购、MLF 均超量续作，呵护资金 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector showed significant recovery on February 6, with innovative drugs experiencing a rebound, particularly the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880), which rose by nearly 2% after opening lower [1][8] - Notable stocks included Nocera Health, which surged over 12%, projecting revenues of 2.37 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 134%, and an expected net profit of around 630 million yuan, marking its first profit [1][8] Group 2: Company Performance - Companies such as Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and CanSino Biologics also reported profitability, with net profit forecasts exceeding 100% year-on-year growth [1][8] - Ark Health announced a profit forecast of 7 to 10 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses, and raised approximately 144.3 million HKD to accelerate the development of its AI-driven chronic disease management platform [3][10] Group 3: ETF Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (159137) are highlighted as effective investment vehicles, with the former focusing entirely on innovative drug development companies, where the top ten weighted stocks account for over 73% [6][12] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (159137) has shown strong performance, with 9 out of 10 disclosed component stocks expected to report profits, and several companies projected to double their net profits year-on-year [3][10]