1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level, and short - term production is at a historical high. However, there are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, so the March start - up rate is expected to decline gradually [11]. - Domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but overall domestic demand is under pressure. Although the time for canceling export tax rebates is approaching, there are expectations of production cuts overseas due to raw material shortages, and domestic production may be needed to fill the gap [11]. - The cost of calcium carbide and caustic soda has rebounded. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price trend is mainly upward, but as the short - term increase is large, risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 3,165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 85 yuan. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali is oscillating at a high level, the profit of ethylene - based production is low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the ethylene method is 70.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Some enterprises may start spring maintenance in March, and with the continuation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, there is an expectation of a further decline in ethylene - based production load, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the shortage of raw materials in Asia, the reduction of the load in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 41.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%; the load of films is 59.3%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9%; the load of profiles is 37.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3%. The overall downstream load is 46%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 77.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 33.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 tons; the social inventory was 137.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 tons; the overall inventory was 171.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. Currently, the ethylene - based production load is stable. Although the calcium carbide method has increased production due to improved profits, it is currently in the maintenance season, and ethylene - based production is expected to further reduce production. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and inventory is expected to be reduced in March [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided, including PVC term structure, PVC East China SG - 5 price, PVC spot basis, PVC 5 - 9 spread, PVC active contract positions and trading volume, and PVC total positions and trading volume, showing the price and trading volume trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][18][21][25][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory continues to decline, the social inventory is stable, the overall inventory is slowly decreasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is decreasing [32][40]. - **Profit**: Multiple charts show the profit trends of Shandong's externally purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide method, PVC ethylene method, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide from 2022 to 2026 [43] 3.4. Cost Side - The price of calcium carbide continues to rebound. Charts show the price trends of Wuhai calcium carbide, Shandong calcium carbide, semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2022 to 2026, as well as the inventory and start - up rate of calcium carbide [49][53][56] 3.5. Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC capacity shows the growth rate situation. In 2025, a total of 250 tons of PVC production capacity was put into operation, including multiple enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods. Charts also show the start - up rates of PVC calcium carbide method, ethylene method, overall start - up rate, and weekly output from 2022 to 2026 [60][64][67] 3.6. Demand Side - The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC are continuously recovering. Charts show the start - up rates of PVC downstream industries, profiles, films, pipes, export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, Chinese housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year, and also include the PVC industry chain and mind map [71][73][76][77][78][80][84][87][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is a bullish and volatile trend [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, overseas refining and chemical enterprises have successively declared force majeure, with a widespread increase in production cuts. The domestic ethylene price has continuously soared, and there is a shortage of subsequent ethylene arrivals. As a result, domestic ethylene - based PVC has successively cut production. Although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and the price has risen, the spot trading volume of PVC has not increased significantly [2] - Overall, weak trading, high inventory, and the increase in the start - up of calcium carbide - based PVC to fill the gap of ethylene - based PVC have led to a short - term convergence of the market basis. However, the spillover of the Middle East situation, rising costs, and supply disturbances in domestic and overseas chlor - alkali plants will support the PVC market in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 05 contract futures price: 5735; East China spot price: 5680; Basis: - 55; 5 - 9 spread: - 11 [1] - There are no newly added maintenance enterprises, and the weekly average load of ethylene - based plants has decreased [1] Market Condition Analysis - The PVC trend strength is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for the trend strength, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC price is relatively strong. Next week, domestic production is expected to decline further, while some downstream enterprises are having pre - holiday promotions, leading to increased production. Export is expected to remain strong. Considering that some downstream enterprises are starting to take holidays and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, the PVC market is expected to maintain a strong trend [3]. - For trading strategies: go long at low prices but do not chase high prices for single - side trading; hold off on arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market outlook**: PVC price is strong. Supply may decline slightly as Fujian Wanhua and Shandong Hengtong are under maintenance. Domestic downstream production is expected to decline, but some large enterprises' pre - holiday promotions boost production. Export remains strong due to cold wave news stimulating foreign inquiries. The price of ethylene in US dollars has limited upward potential, and the calcium carbide market is expected to rise strongly next week [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Single - side trading: low - long, do not chase high; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Over - the - counter: wait - and - see [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Core data changes**: This week, PVC prices fluctuated after rising. The spot supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and inventory increased. Supported by positive economic expectations and bullish commodity outlooks, PVC prices rose during the week. The production of PVC enterprises was 48.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11% (0.54 tons). The industry inventory was 150.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82% (2.7 tons). The average weekly trading volume was 1.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65 tons. The downstream production enterprises' operating rate was 44.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. The export order volume of PVC production enterprises increased by 1.08% week - on - week to 6.57 tons [4]. - **Supply analysis** - **Enterprise production by process**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Enterprise pre - sales by process**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Enterprise capacity utilization by process**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Raw material source weekly production data difference**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Maintenance enterprises statistics**: In January, multiple enterprises such as Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, and others had maintenance plans, with some due to high - cost reasons and others due to other factors like park influence. In February, Taiwan Formosa Plastics plans to have a two - week maintenance [16]. - **Production enterprise production increase plans**: Multiple enterprises in different provinces have production increase plans with different schedules, such as Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials may start production in the first half of 2026, and Huayi's second - phase project is planned after 2028 [17]. - **Cost analysis** - **Raw material cost historical comparison**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Raw material gross profit historical comparison**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Inventory analysis** - **Production enterprise inventory by process/region**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **PVC social inventory/industry inventory**: The social inventory was 117.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92% [4]. - **Demand analysis - Product enterprise production and inventory**: The downstream product enterprises' production rate increased, and the raw material inventory available days increased by 0.1 days to 13.90 days. Some enterprises made small purchases at low prices and had some pre - holiday stockpiling [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PVC are bearish, with increasing supply pressure this week and expected further increases in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. Current demand may remain sluggish, and production scheduling could face pressure due to cost factors [8][9][10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is not smooth. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [15][16]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, while ethylene method enterprise production was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,052.47 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit reduction of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On January 15, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,730 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position decreased [11][12]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview, including various price indicators (such as different regions' PVC prices, futures closing prices, etc.), month - to - month price differences, inventory data, and downstream开工率 data, along with their changes compared to the previous period [17][18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: Relevant charts show the long - term trend of the base price of PVC futures [20][21]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the trends of PVC futures prices, trading volumes, and positions in recent months, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and the trends of moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120 [23][24]. - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures in different periods [26][27]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of Lancoke over the years [29]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, and maintenance loss trends of calcium carbide over the years [34]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the price, production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt over the years [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: It presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, inventory trends of caustic soda over the years, as well as the cost - profit trends of the Shandong chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [40][41][42]. - **Supply Trends**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profit trends, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production over the years [43][44][45]. - **Demand Trends**: It presents the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption volume, and downstream开工率 (including profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) trends over the years. It also shows the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion area data of the real estate industry, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment year - on - year data [48][49][50]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days over the years [60][61]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread over the years [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand differences [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are generally bearish. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to rise next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain weak. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4834 - 4942. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, while ethylene - based enterprise production was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2109.91 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On January 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Bearish [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. Bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, capacity utilization rates, and inventory levels of different regions and production methods [14][15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical basis trend of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the spot price and the futures price over time [17][18]. - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and 20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the price spreads of the main contracts of PVC futures, including the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit analysis of the chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [26][31][34][37][39]. - **Supply Trends**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, production, maintenance volume, and daily production [40][41][43]. - **Demand Trends**: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [45][46][54]. - **Inventory**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [57][58]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads such as the FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC and the import spread of vinyl chloride [59][60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and the supply - demand difference [62][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the PVC industry [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong. The domestic demand recovery is sluggish, and the current demand may remain weak. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4467 - 4517 [7][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 343,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 134,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.08%. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase slightly next week [3][5] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [3][5] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 491 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2137.95 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6] - **Basis**: On November 19th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 38 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. It is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 322,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The ethylene factory inventory was 79,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The social inventory was 532,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [7] - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening. The overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4467 - 4517 [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates of different types of PVC [14][15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend chart of the PVC futures basis, showing the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17][18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 spreads and 5 - 9 spreads [23][24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Products - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke [26][27] - **Calcium Carbide**: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [29][30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The report shows the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31][32] - **Caustic Soda**: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of caustic soda [33][34][36] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, maintenance volume, and production trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [38][39][41] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate and profit - cost - production - consumption trends of different downstream products of PVC [43][46][47] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [56][57] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [59][60]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the PVC industry trend is still weak, with a trend strength of -1 [2][3] 2) Report's Core View - The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. When the main contract faces delivery issues, PVC will be under pressure again due to factors such as high supply, weak downstream demand, high social inventory, high warehouse receipts, and potential policy disturbances in exports [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 01 - contract futures price is 4766, the East China spot price is 4660, the basis is - 106, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 284 [1] Spot News - This week, the sample - statistical PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month to 1.03 billion tons and increased by 25.09% year - on - year [1] Market Condition Analysis - On the profit side, "subsidizing chlorine with soda" results in insufficient driving force for PVC production cuts. After the maintenance devices resume production, the supply side will maintain high operation in winter. The demand for PVC downstream products related to the real estate sector is still weak year - on - year, with low enterprise stocking willingness, poor inventory transfer to downstream, and high social inventory year - on - year. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, increasing the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC will experience a short - term rebound, but will face pressure again when the main contract encounters delivery issues [1] - The high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down due to policy disturbances [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 01 - contract futures price is 4775, the East China spot price is 4620, the basis is - 155, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 286 [1] Spot Market Situation - The domestic PVC spot market is running in a stalemate. The morning inquiry atmosphere is light, and the spot quotation is mainly stable. The afternoon commodity market drive causes a small increase in the PVC market, but the spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. In the East China region, the cash - on - delivery warehouse pickup price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4580 - 4700 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC price is stuck at 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Coal is short - term strong, and the macro anti - involution sentiment leads to a short - term rebound of PVC. However, from the PVC fundamentals, the "chlorine compensation with alkali" in the profit end results in insufficient driving force for PVC production cuts. After the maintenance devices resume production, the supply side will maintain high - level operation in winter [1] - The demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness, inventory transfer to downstream is not smooth, and social inventory is higher year - on - year. In addition, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and there will be great pressure on long - position holders to take delivery in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The market may show wide - range fluctuations. The current upward pressure on caustic soda comes from exports and alumina. Although there is an optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future, the current situation of high inventory and low profit in the alumina industry restricts the rise of caustic soda prices. Before the start of alumina production and the improvement of exports, the upward driving force is insufficient [5]. 2.2 PVC - PVC is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the medium - term. The export market is under policy interference, and the growth rate may slow down. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the overall trend still faces pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview 3.1.1 Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. There are production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and North China [5]. - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory will continue to compress profits. Although the current production willingness is high, there is a problem of regional supply - demand mismatch. Non - aluminum demand has increased month - on - month, and there will be a phased peak - season restocking in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Exports have improved recently, but the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Viewpoint: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The futures market is in a game between reality and expectation, showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,188 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, pay attention to downstream restocking in mid - to late September and pre - production restocking of alumina after October. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future, especially in September, which will bring greater supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased in 2025. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises' willingness to restock is low [7]. - Viewpoint: The PVC market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports are subject to policy interference, so the medium - term trend still faces pressure [7]. - Valuation: The basis is weak, the month - to - month spread is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to rise. The valuation is moderately high [7]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 5,000 - 5,150 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 11 - 1 spread is also weakening [12][14]. - Spread: In 2025, caustic soda exports are expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year, with annual exports possibly exceeding 4 million tons. The export market still has support, and the export profit has expanded. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong has increased, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is at a high level. However, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [16][23][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production is declining, and inventory is rising. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 378,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.02% and a year - on - year increase of 18.22% [35][36][37]. - Planned Maintenance: Pay attention to the maintenance in Shandong and Hebei in October. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [41]. - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there are still many new capacities planned to be put into production, considering the continuous losses in chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production may be lower than expected [42][45]. - Profit: The weak price of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The decline in electricity prices has a significant impact on the cost of caustic soda [46][49]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: The alumina industry is operating at a high capacity, but inventory is rising, and profits are declining. At the end of the year, the production of new alumina plants will drive up the rigid demand and inventory of caustic soda, especially the tank - filling demand before production, which will lead to a significant increase in the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda [75][81]. - Pulp: The pulp industry is experiencing continuous capacity expansion, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season. The operating rate of the finished paper industry has increased month - on - month [83][89]. - Other Industries: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the printing and dyeing industry has recovered, and the short - term demand has increased month - on - month. The water treatment industry has stable operations, and the output of the ternary precursor industry has increased [94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 spread is weakly fluctuating [105]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has decreased month - on - month. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in September - October 2025. There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, with more concentrated production in the second half of the year [110][114][115]. - Profit: The integrated plants in the Northwest have acceptable profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain's long - term trend of using caustic soda to subsidize chlorine makes it difficult for PVC to significantly reduce production due to losses [117][119]. - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory is increasing [121]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly recovered, but the overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries has increased month - on - month [126][132]. - Export: The export expectation of PVC has weakened. Although the cumulative exports from January to July increased year - on - year, the future export may be affected by India's anti - dumping policy [138][141]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of PVC warehouse receipts continues to rise [142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of PVC is bearish, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, high overall inventory, and potentially continued weak demand [6][12]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with production likely to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4930 - 4990 [9]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has declined. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. - There are positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. However, there are also negative factors including a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - The fundamental aspect is bearish, the basis shows the spot price at a discount to the futures price, the inventory is high, the market trend is neutral, and the main - position holding is net short with a reduction in short positions [6][12]. - Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [14]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [7][11]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,600.05 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may face pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. The ethylene factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [12]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and profits for different regions and production methods, including price changes, month - to - month differences, and inventory changes [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend of the PVC basis, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [20]. 3.4.2 Price and Volume Trends - Presents the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages [23]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][36]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trends - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the overall PVC production and capacity utilization rate [39][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, downstream operating rate, and related economic indicators of PVC, including real estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [43][44][50][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory status of the exchange, calcium carbide factory, ethylene factory, and social inventory, as well as the in - stock days of production enterprises [55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the supply - demand balance data for PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production volume, and import volume [60].