1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal market in a volatile pattern. It is currently in a neutral state, with short - term fluctuations influenced by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, changes in China - Canada trade relations, and the shift in the demand season [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to assume a volatile and slightly bullish trend. For the RM2601 contract, it is expected to fluctuate around 2400, and short - term trading or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, leading to a decrease in demand and putting downward pressure on the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of reduced Ukrainian rapeseed production by increased Russian production, and geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills remained low, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downward, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors were exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bearish volatile pattern. The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a low level, and the MACD is declining, but the green energy has not expanded. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the performance of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates between 2340 and 2400. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions increase with capital inflow, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of Sino - Canadian tariff reduction, it returns to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, with decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are that domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 9th to 17th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are presented. Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot is relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices rise slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [13][15][16] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 to close at 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 20 to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to 2450 yuan per ton, a 1.61% decrease [4]. - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, mainly due to the unexpectedly high crushing data released by NOPA, which boosted the price through demand. However, data on exports and harvest progress remained suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened, mainly because domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were at a high level compared to the same period, with sufficient supply. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations and bearish sentiment exerted pressure. Additionally, the sowing in Brazil was progressing smoothly, the early - stage crops were growing well, and Argentina was about to start sowing with good soil moisture [4]. - The initial sowing work in Brazil was going smoothly. Precipitation in the central - western producing areas (such as Mato Grosso) was low in late October, which required continuous attention. China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations were about to take place in Malaysia, and trade sentiment cooled. Attention was paid to the high - level meeting during the APEC at the end of the month. The Canadian Foreign Minister visited China, and the China - Canada trade relations eased. The import of Canadian rapeseed might resume, and the market sentiment was bearish. Domestic soybean inventories were high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. It was expected that the continuous soybean meal would fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 cents per bushel to 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 2 dollars per ton to 481 dollars per ton, a 0.42% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans fell 2 dollars per ton to 454 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market fell 50.85 yuan per ton to - 177.89 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 yuan per ton to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 yuan per ton to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference rose 31 yuan per ton to 562 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China fell 30 yuan per ton to 2890 yuan per ton, a 1.03% decrease; the spot price in South China fell 20 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the spot - futures price difference in South China rose 34 yuan per ton to 32 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the unexpectedly high NOPA crushing data, but export and harvest progress data were suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened because of sufficient supply, expected easing of China - Canada trade relations, and smooth sowing in Brazil [7]. - The U.S. government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were suspended. The current harvest progress was estimated to be 70% - 80%. China had not purchased U.S. soybeans, and export demand was weak. The market expected a slight decrease in the October report's yield per acre to 53.2 bushels per acre [8]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel; the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 284.83 dollars per short - ton; the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.84 cents per pound; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.90 dollars per bushel [8]. - NOPA's monthly report showed that member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. As of September 30, the member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 11.1%. Conab estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 177.6386 million tons, a 3.6% increase year - on - year, and the export volume would increase to 112.11 million tons. As of the week of October 10, 2025, domestic major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, and national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 147,300 tons, the average daily pick - up volume was 187,420 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.93 days [11]. Industry News - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, had reached 21.22% of the expected total planting area [12]. - As of the week of October 5, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased 8.7% to 80,500 tons. From August 1 to October 5, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 796,100 tons, a 59.2% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 5, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.274 million tons [12]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate had reached 14%, the third - fastest in the same period [12]. - Brazil exported 2,166,031.56 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 270,753.94 tons, a 26% increase from the average daily export volume in October last year [13]. - Canada exported 477,254 tons of rapeseed, 281,360 tons of rapeseed oil, and 446,993 tons of rapeseed meal in August 2025 [13]. - From January to July this year, the U.S. exported only 5.9 million tons of soybeans to China. Since May, China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans. A U.S. market research company predicted that if China did not return to the U.S. market by mid - November, the U.S. might lose 14 - 16 million tons of soybean orders to China [13]. - Last week, soybean planting in Brazil slowed down due to insufficient rainfall. Safras & Mercado estimated the national planting rate to be about 11.2%. In Paraná, the planting rate was about 38%, and in Mato Grosso, about 20% of the area had been planted [14]. - As of the week of October 14, about 39% of the U.S. soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, and the production was expected to be 51.1 million tons. The estimated 2025/26 planting area was 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and remain volatile in the short term [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures hit a high and then fell back due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada recently, it has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations, affecting domestic supply. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 23 to October 9, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 2991, and the trading volume varied from 3.81 - 25.9 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 468 [13]. - From September 23 to October 9, the price of rapeseed meal futures for the main 2601 contract was between 2395 - 2447, and for the far - month 2605 contract, it was between 2319 - 2343. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2500 - 2560 [15]. - From September 19 to October 9, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9248 to 9199 [16]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The report does not provide specific position data analysis other than the fact that the main short positions decreased and funds flowed in [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rapeseed meal industry is neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal has been fluctuating and declining, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile pattern [8] - Rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada, it has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The report provides an overall view of rapeseed meal, including its current market situation, influencing factors, and future trends [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [10] - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11] - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [18] - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills decreased significantly, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [20][22] - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [32] - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [30] 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [8] 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2500 in the short term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [12] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [12] 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors are exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bullish volatile pattern in the short term, but the future of China - Canada trade relations is uncertain [41] - The KDJ indicator is fluctuating at a low level, indicating a technical consolidation stage. It may maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [41] - The MACD is declining, showing a slightly bearish short - term trend, but the green energy has not expanded. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [41] 3.8 Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44] - Second most important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [45] - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]

Group 1 - China's decision to impose a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola seed exports has resulted in a loss of a $4.9 billion market for Canada, causing significant distress among 40,000 farmers in Western Canada, each facing losses of tens of thousands of dollars [3] - Canada is the world's largest exporter of canola seeds, with China being a long-term major buyer; the current export restrictions have led China to increase its purchases from Australia, indicating its ability to find alternative sources [3] - The Canadian government is seeking remedial measures, including the potential removal of tariffs on electric vehicles and a review by the Finance Ministry, as officials aim to negotiate with China to lift the canola seed restrictions [3][5] Group 2 - Canadian Foreign Minister Anand plans to visit China and India to repair strained relations, focusing on trade, climate change, defense, and security, while emphasizing the need for Canada to position its interests at the core of cooperation [5] - China has made it clear that Canada must stop its erroneous practices to maintain the multilateral trade system and the overall relationship; the countermeasures taken by China are based on investigations and specific reasons [5][8] - The current geopolitical landscape is challenging for Canada, as it faces pressure from the U.S. to adopt protectionist measures while needing to diversify its markets, particularly with emerging economies like China [6]

Core Insights - The Canadian government is facing unexpected challenges in trade, particularly with China, which has shifted its oilseed purchases to other countries, resulting in Canada losing out on 9 shipments of canola [1][3] - Canadian Foreign Minister Anand plans to visit China to ease bilateral tensions, emphasizing potential cooperation in clean energy, traditional energy, and agriculture [1][3] - The Canadian government is under pressure from business and political leaders to improve trade relations with China, as historical evidence suggests that deepening cooperation can mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [3] Trade Dynamics - In 2022, Canada exported nearly CAD 5 billion worth of canola to China, but the imposition of temporary anti-dumping measures by China in August has led to a sharp decline in exports [3] - China is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Canadian canola, with Australia likely to replace Canada as a key supplier in the Chinese market [3][5] Competitive Landscape - COFCO has ordered up to 9 shipments, totaling 540,000 tons of canola from Australia, with shipments scheduled between November and January [5] - A plant quarantine framework agreement between China and Australia is expected to facilitate Australian suppliers' access to the Chinese market, further impacting Canadian canola exports [5] Negotiation Challenges - The current situation is unfavorable for the Canadian government, as China can easily find alternative suppliers, diminishing Canada's leverage in negotiations [7] - China is open to discussions on reducing canola tariffs but requires Canada to provide a fair and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is the short - term negative sentiment from Argentina's export tax exemption policy. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a potential export volume of up to 10 million tons to China. However, the purchase gap in China in the fourth quarter is less than 10 million tons. The policy's duration until next year is still uncertain. In terms of valuation, the prices of Argentine soybean meal and soybeans have only slightly decreased, providing some cost support for the domestic soybean meal futures. In the long - term, the soybean supply affected by Sino - US trade relations should be monitored [1]. - Rapeseed meal futures generally follow the trend of soybean meal in the short - term. After the Sino - Canadian talks, China has extended the anti - dumping investigation, making rapeseed products stronger than soybeans before November. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may increase the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal by the end of the year [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing seasonally. Rapeseed meal is weaker but relatively stronger than soybean meal. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the subsequent purchasing sentiment is expected to be limited. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a supply - dominated market [3]. - In the long - term, the import profit of soybeans is weakening, indicating a relief of supply pressure. Without purchasing US soybeans, there will be a supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Due to Sino - Canadian tariffs, there will also be a supply gap for rapeseed meal in the long - term, but the demand may decline simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory will decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term focus is on Argentina's export tax exemption policy. The old - crop sales progress is 60% - 70%, with a potential export of up to 10 million tons to China. The policy's impact on the market depends on its duration and China's purchase demand. In the long - term, Sino - US trade relations will affect soybean supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal in the short - term. Before November, it is stronger than soybeans due to Sino - Canadian relations. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may change the inventory situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be range - bound. The M2601 contract is predicted to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through these ranges [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or liquidate previous long positions. Consider a covered call strategy by selling a 3300 - strike call option as a covered opening position, and hold previous covered opening positions [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.8% and a historical percentile of 3.8% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, feed mills, and oil mills based on their inventory and procurement situations [25]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [26]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have shown different changes, with the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthening and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowing [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have decreased, and the pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans are positive but declining. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are relatively high [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: According to the USDA crop report, as of September 21, the US soybean harvest progress was 9%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The dry weather in the US Midwest may accelerate the harvest. The USDA export inspection report showed that the cumulative soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season increased by 25.9% year - on - year, reaching 3.43% of the annual export target. China has purchased up to nine ships of Australian rapeseed, equivalent to about 8% of last year's total imports [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina has cancelled export taxes on soybeans, grains, and related products from now until October 31 to stimulate exports, which may increase supply and put pressure on international prices. As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.9%, and the upcoming rainfall may accelerate planting. The US EPA's new policy on small refinery exemptions has not clarified the market, leading to a significant decline in Chicago soybean oil futures [31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and near - term spot purchases are mainly on a need - to - use basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [41]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price first declined, then rebounded, and finally broke through the support level. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal but was relatively stronger. Some short - position holders in key profitable seats of soybean and rapeseed meal futures reduced their positions slightly, while foreign - funded seats increased short positions. The crowded long - position seats suggest limited downward space [37]. - **International Market**: The domestic and international markets showed different trends. Before the Sino - US trade negotiation, the international market strengthened, and the domestic market weakened. After the negotiation, the situation reversed. Subsequently, the international soybean market declined due to Argentina's export policy. The net long - position of CBOT soybean managed funds decreased and fluctuated around zero, indicating unclear short - term capital direction [60][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in US soybean production areas is strong due to biodiesel policies, and the monthly pressing volume remains at a high level. The pressing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) are average, and exports may reduce domestic pressing volume. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed is neutral [66]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans in China is positive but declining. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans as they are more profitable than US soybeans with a 23% tariff. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and the domestic soybean pressing volume may decline seasonally. Although importing rapeseed can yield pressing profits, the purchase of rapeseed will still be cautious due to import margin requirements [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - For this month's new - crop balance sheet, the planted area is expected to increase marginally after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to decrease marginally after reaching a record high. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The domestic pressing demand will continue to grow due to biodiesel policies, while the export demand will remain weak due to Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may exceed normal levels. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [81]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - China's soybean imports will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. The production of soybean meal will also decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be 2 - 3 ships of imported soybean meal if there is an import profit. Argentina will mainly export soybeans to China [83]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The inventory of soybeans carried over from the third quarter and the arrival of new imports in the fourth quarter will maintain a high level of domestic soybean pressing volume, but it will decline in the fourth quarter. After the previous high - level stocking, the consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly [86]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The inventory of soybeans in China is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease. The inventory of soybean meal will also decline rapidly due to the reduction of raw material inventory and pressing volume [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is influenced by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. Currently, the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season with low inventory, but after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season. The short - term trend will be affected by news and remain volatile [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range oscillation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the peak season with low inventory, but will enter the off - season after the National Day. The short - term trend is affected by news and remains volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is 92, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and the capital has flowed in, which is bearish [9]. 3.6 Other Related Data - **Trading Volume and Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [20]. - **Import and Inventory**: The import volume of rapeseed in September remains stable, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly. The oil extraction volume of rapeseed in oil mills fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. It is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of tariff reduction. It has fallen after a rise and will return to a short - term shock pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal fluctuates narrowly. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, causing the market to fall due to news [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 10th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3004 - 3059 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.08 million tons on September 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 459 yuan [13]. - From September 10th to 18th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2460 - 2567 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2357 - 2420 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2540 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 8th to 18th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10403 to 9504 [16]. - The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium increased slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remained low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [24]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].