Group 1 - The majority of U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.905%, the 10-year yield at 4.399%, and the 30-year yield at 4.94% [1] - A joint report from the New York and San Francisco Federal Reserves indicates a possibility of the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates close to zero in the coming years, despite currently high short-term borrowing costs [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as this month, depending on evolving data [1] Group 2 - Canadian bond yields increased across the board, with the 1-year yield at 2.655%, the 10-year yield at 3.402%, and the 30-year yield at 3.699% [2] - European bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German yield at 2.641%, the 10-year Italian yield at 3.552%, and the 10-year French yield at 3.354% [2] - UK bond yields experienced minor fluctuations, with the 2-year yield at 3.866%, the 10-year yield at 5.577%, and the 30-year yield at 5.389% [2] Group 3 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed regret over the latest tariff statement and emphasized ongoing negotiations with the U.S. government [3] - Long-term Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield at 1.49% and the 30-year yield at 3.076% [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance issued 5-year bonds with a demand ratio of 3.54 times, indicating average market demand [3] Group 4 - Investor sentiment was cautious due to tariff tensions, leading to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and rising yields [4] - President Trump announced that starting August 1, imports from at least 14 countries will face high tariffs, contributing to the sell-off [4] Group 5 - The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its policy rate at 3.85%, indicating a need for more time to assess inflation data [6] - Australian bond yields initially rose significantly before partially retreating, with the 10-year yield at 4.269% after the policy announcement [6] - Australia's inflation rate for May was reported at 2.1%, the lowest since October 2024, down from 2.4% in the first quarter [6] Group 6 - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $158 billion in three bond offerings, including $50 billion in 6-week and 52-week bills, and $58 billion in 3-year bonds [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant volatility due to escalating geopolitical concerns and U.S. policy actions, with recent developments including the cancellation of retaliatory tariffs and a trade agreement framework with China [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index recently rebounded to a record closing high, while the ASX200 index is on track for its best performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Morgan Stanley's macro research head, Chris Nicol, highlighted that global economic growth is expected to slow from approximately 3.5% last year to 2.5% this year, slightly above the global recession threshold [1][2] Group 2: Key Risks - Nicol identified three major market risks to monitor: 1) Trade tensions potentially escalating during tariff negotiations, particularly from a U.S.-EU perspective; 2) Inflation risks as tariff costs may impact the U.S. and other countries; 3) Rising bond yields due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [2] - The mining and manufacturing sectors in Australia are expected to be significantly affected by the global growth slowdown, with more impact on prices rather than production in mining [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite downward revisions in earnings expectations for resource companies, Nicol anticipates a potential recovery in earnings and emphasizes the importance of domestic policy in stimulating market activity [2][4] - Morgan Stanley suggests constructing an investment portfolio focused on four key areas: selecting large-cap stocks to leverage Australian economic resilience, capturing opportunities in interest rate-sensitive sectors, maintaining quality growth stocks, and holding resource stocks as a hedge against global risks [4] Group 4: Currency Outlook - The Australian dollar has faced pressure during risk asset sell-offs but is expected to stabilize against the U.S. dollar, with a forecasted moderate appreciation to 70 cents by mid-next year [2][4] - The Australian dollar's upward potential against a trade-weighted currency basket is currently limited due to the expected strengthening of the euro and yen against the U.S. dollar [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current net financing by major banks has reached an unprecedented level of 5.3 trillion yuan, which is historically high and linked to the central bank's liquidity support [2][12][16] - It notes that the trend of easing liquidity can be linearly extrapolated, and any disruption to this trend would require additional variables [3][13] - The report suggests that if the liquidity remains loose in July, the long-term interest rates may decline further, with the current 10Y-1Y yield spread at 30 basis points, the highest since mid-February [3][12][13] Group 2 - The report indicates that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen to 107.85%, reflecting an increase in borrowing activity [23] - It mentions that the average daily transaction volume of pledged repos was approximately 7.6 trillion yuan, with overnight repos accounting for 89.71% of the total [27][31] - The report states that the median duration of medium- to long-term bond funds remains at 2.87 years, indicating stability in fund management strategies [49]

Group 1 - The UK 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 4.554%, with a total rise of 5.0 basis points for the week [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 5.343%, accumulating a weekly increase of 7.1 basis points [1] - The 50-year UK bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 4.689%, with a total rise of 7.2 basis points for the week [1] Group 2 - On July 1, the US stock market saw the 10-year yield drop to 4.417% before rebounding to 4.633% at the market open on July 2 [1] - The 30-year yield fell to 5.185% on July 1 and rebounded to 5.453% on July 2 [1] - The 50-year yield dropped to 4.542% on July 1 and then increased to 4.817% on July 2 [1]

Group 1 - European government bond yields have slightly increased following the release of U.S. data [1] - The latest yield for Germany's 10-year government bonds is 2.598% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 30-year Japanese government bond auction is seen as a test for policymakers to stabilize the bond market after significant volatility, with long-term bond yields reaching historical highs in May [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Japanese bond yields have decreased from their peak due to the Ministry of Finance's strategy to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds and the Bank of Japan slowing down its bond purchase reductions [1] - There is a cautious market sentiment, particularly regarding the 30-year bonds, as global scrutiny on long-term bonds increases amid rising government deficits [1][3] - The demand for Japanese long-term bonds is weakening, reflecting a decrease in purchases by traditional buyers like life insurance companies [1] Group 2: Auction Insights and Expectations - The upcoming auction results will be closely monitored, particularly the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates investor demand; the last auction had a ratio of 2.92, below the average of 3.33 over the past year [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to cut the issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by the end of March 2026 [6] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming national elections in Japan may suppress demand for the bond auction, as potential changes in fiscal policy could arise depending on election outcomes [7] - The Prime Minister has prioritized salary increases and achieving a 1 trillion yen economic target as key campaign promises, which may influence market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that UK bonds continue to remain sluggish, with the 30-year government bond yield surging by 20 basis points to 5.43% [1]

Group 1 - Bond traders have rapidly built long positions in U.S. Treasuries, hoping for a boost from the upcoming June non-farm payroll report [1] - The recent data showed a surprising increase in job vacancies for May, indicating a strong labor market, which led to a sell-off in the bond market [1] - Citigroup strategist David Bieber noted that long positions in U.S. Treasuries have been accumulating, with tactical positions becoming "highly one-sided" after significant long building over the past week [1] Group 2 - The bullish momentum in the U.S. Treasury futures market is also reflected in the options market, with traders spending up to $32 million on options betting on further increases in 10-year Treasury yields [3] - There is a concentration of long positions in the U.S. Treasury market, and if employment data does not support expectations for a Fed rate cut next month, traders may begin to unwind their positions [3] - The market is still seeking to hedge against potential rising yields, with traders establishing hedge positions betting that 10-year Treasury yields will rebound to around 4.3% before Thursday's close [3]

德国国债随其他债券上涨；10年期收益率下跌6个基点至2.55%。 ...

2/10年期德债收益率利差涨2.168个基点，报+74.135个基点。 周四（6月26日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.4个基点，报2.569%，"跳空低开"之后，全天持 续震荡上行，整体交投于2.533%-2.574%区间。 两年期德债收益率跌1.8个基点，报1.825%，日内交投于1.844%-1.812%区间，整体呈现出W形下跌；30 年期德债收益率涨1.8个基点，报3.070%。 ...