Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if trade tensions ease rapidly, global economic growth may accelerate, which could lead to a reduction in the extent of domestic interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that the current trade environment is a significant factor influencing economic conditions [1] - A potential easing of trade tensions could positively impact both domestic and global economic outlooks [1] - The statement indicates a cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy adjustments based on external economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The primary concern is the potential escalation of trade tensions into a trade war, which could significantly impact global economic growth, inflation, and asset prices [1] Group 1 - The current trade tensions are viewed as a major source of uncertainty in the global economy [1] - An escalation into a trade war could have profound implications for various economic indicators [1] - The potential effects on asset prices are highlighted as a significant risk stemming from trade conflicts [1]

美银调查显示，投资者对全球经济增长的悲观情绪有所缓解 金十数据5月13日讯，美国银行对全球基金经理的月度调查显示，投资者对5月份全球经济增长的悲观情 绪有所缓解。净59%的投资者预计全球经济增长将放缓，低于4月份的82%。净1%的人认为可能出现衰 退，较4月份的42%大幅下降。投资者目前的共识是软着陆，即通胀下降，而经济不会明显放缓或陷入 衰退。本月，61%的投资者预计会出现这种结果，高于4月份的37%。，对硬着陆的预期已从4月份的 49%降至26%。 ...

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025 is reported at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction for two consecutive months [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the prediction made in January [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Asia in April is at 50%, down 1.3 percentage points from March, while Africa's manufacturing has returned to a contraction phase [1][2] Group 2 - Asian developing countries are encouraged to leverage domestic market demand and continue advancing industrial upgrades and technological innovation to mitigate external uncertainties [2] - The stability of Africa's manufacturing sector remains weak, with significant fluctuations, prompting countries to enhance internal trade and investment through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement [2] - European manufacturing PMI stands at 48.4%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from March, while the Americas' PMI is also at 48.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing contraction in both regions [2] Group 3 - The European manufacturing sector is still in a contraction phase, with the European Central Bank acknowledging significant downside risks to the Eurozone economy [3] - Concerns regarding inflationary pressures due to external uncertainties are rising, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS noting an increased risk of recession in the United States for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of global economic growth and global trade on Malaysia's exports will surpass the effects of currency fluctuations [1] Group 1 - Malaysia's Trade Minister emphasizes that external economic factors are more significant for export performance than local currency movements [1]

穆迪：美国关税可能对全球贸易和全球经济增长产生重大影响，并将影响泰国的开放型经济。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic commodities entered a volatile pattern, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding. Multiple factors, including Trump's wavering tariff policies, cautious market sentiment, domestic policy restraint, and the impact of counter - measures on agricultural product supply - demand, contributed to this situation. - The coexistence of bullish and bearish factors will keep the commodity market in a volatile state. Negative factors such as Trump's tariff policies, global economic slowdown, and market sentiment fluctuations are countered by positive domestic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Sections PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Global Economic Outlook**: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, the lowest since 2020, and the 2026 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%. Trump's tariff policies, policy uncertainty, and weak demand disrupted global supply chains and dampened investment [3]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The US April manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (below expectations), and the service PMI was 51.4 (above expectations), indicating weakened economic momentum and rising stagflation risks. In March, new housing starts were 724,000 (slightly better than expected), but the high inventory - to - sales ratio (8.2 months) hindered new construction and real - estate investment [3]. - **Eurozone Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone April manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the highest since early 2023 but still below the boom - bust line for 13 months. The marginal improvement was due to short - term order digestion and export - rush effects, and the economic outlook faces significant downside risks [3]. - **Domestic Economic Policies**: The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed using high - quality development to address external uncertainties. Fiscal and monetary policies will be more actively implemented. The LPR remained unchanged in April, but a second - quarter "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut" is expected. Industrial enterprise profits improved in Q1 2025, turning from a 3.3% decline in 2024 to a 0.8% increase [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **IMF Forecasts**: Lowered 2025 and 2026 global economic growth forecasts due to Trump's tariff policies, policy uncertainty, and weak demand [3][7]. - **US PMI Data**: April manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (below expectations), service PMI was 51.4 (above expectations), suggesting weakened economic momentum and stagflation risks [3][10]. - **US Housing Market**: March new housing starts were 724,000 (slightly better than expected), but the high inventory - to - sales ratio (8.2 months) dampened new construction and investment [3][13]. - **Eurozone PMI**: April manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the highest since early 2023 but below the boom - bust line for 13 months, with short - term factors driving the marginal improvement [3][16]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Policy Meeting**: The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized high - quality development and more active implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [3][20]. - **LPR Trends**: LPR remained unchanged in April due to stable policy rates, low bank net interest margins, and strong Q1 economic performance. A Q2 cut is expected [3][23]. - **Industrial Profits**: Industrial enterprise profits improved in Q1 2025, turning from a 3.3% decline in 2024 to a 0.8% increase, with March profits growing 2.6% [3][26]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **PTA and Related Industries**: On April 25, PTA - related factory operating rates showed certain levels, e.g., POY and PTA had specific operating rate percentages [34]. - **Automobile Sales**: As of April 27, 30 - day automobile sales data showed growth rates, and data from April 1 - 20 also had corresponding sales volumes and growth rates [40]. - **Agricultural Products**: On April 25, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products and the Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index had specific values and changes [41][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the global economic growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, which is a downward revision from earlier estimates of 3.0% for both years [1] - Among 167 economists surveyed, 101 believe that the risk of a global recession is high, while 66 consider the risk to be low [1] - A significant majority of 292 out of 317 economists agree that tariffs have negatively impacted global business sentiment, with no respondents indicating a positive effect [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. imposition of tariffs is a form of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying, which severely impacts the international economic and trade order, dragging down global economic growth and harming the U.S. economy itself [1] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions, primarily due to the U.S. government's announcement of tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners [2][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, marking the largest downgrade among developed economies [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF predicts that global trade growth will decline from 3.8% last year to 1.7% this year, a drop of more than half, due to the negative impacts of tariffs on the complex global supply chain [3] - The IMF also warns that global public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to exceed 95% this year, rising by 2.8 percentage points, with potential to reach 117% by 2027, the highest level since World War II [3] Group 3 - A coalition of 12 U.S. states has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, claiming that the tariff policy is illegal and disrupts the constitutional order, leading to economic chaos [4] - The lawsuit argues that the tariffs impose significant tax burdens on families and businesses, with warnings from state attorneys general about potential inflation and economic losses if the tariffs continue [4] Group 4 - Recent data from the University of Michigan shows that the one-year inflation expectation in the U.S. has risen to 6.7%, the highest since 1981, indicating that new tariffs may push consumer prices higher while suppressing economic activity [5] - Polls indicate a decline in support for the U.S. government since the introduction of the tariff policy, with only 40% approval and 59% of the public disapproving of the tariff measures [6] Group 5 - Analysts warn that the U.S. tariff policy could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, with potential implications for global financial markets [7] - The report from Boston Consulting Group suggests that the tariffs not only increase costs for U.S. businesses and consumers but also signal a shift towards a new era of trade relations, potentially excluding the U.S. from traditional partnerships [7] Group 6 - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to significantly suppress trade flows, reduce exports, and weaken economic activity, as stated by the chief economist of the WTO [8] - The IMF calls for stable and mutually beneficial trade arrangements to restore order in trade policies, emphasizing the need for a well-functioning, rules-based trade system for the global economy [8]

中国国家统计局日前发布的数据显示，初步核算，一季度中国国内生产总值（GDP）318758亿元人民 币，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。接受本报记者采访的国际人士表 示，2025年中国经济起步平稳、开局良好，中国经济在全球面临较大不确定性背景下保持稳定增长，取 得了来之不易的成绩，不仅保障了国内民生发展，也为世界经济带来更多信心，中国继续成为世界经济 增长的主引擎和稳定锚。 "中国经济显示出强劲韧性和巨大活力" 当前单边主义、保护主义抬头，世界经济复苏乏力，面临着巨大的不确定性，外部冲击对中国经济平稳 运行造成一定压力。作为全球第二大经济体，中国经济走势受到国际社会高度关注。一季度公布的亮眼 成绩单显示，中国经济高质量发展向新向好，彰显了中国经济强大韧性和潜力。 数据显示，一季度中国农业生产形势较好，工业生产增长加快，服务业较快增长。其中，农业（种植 业）增加值同比增长4.0%；全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，比上年全年加快0.7个百分点；服 务业增加值同比增长5.3%，比上年全年加快0.3个百分点。 "一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%，这是非常了不起的成绩。"卢旺达资深 ...