新能源车龙头ETF（159637），场外联接A：010805；联接C：010806。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅供参考，仅代表撰文时市场表现，基于市场环境的不 确定性和多变性，不作为任何投资建议，所涉观点后续可能发生调整或变化。本文引用数据仅供参考， 不作为投资建议和收益承诺。基金投资人在做出投资决策之前，请仔细阅读基金合同、基金招募说明书 和基金产品资料概要及其更新等产品法律文件，充分认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性,并请提前进 行风险承受能力测评，选择与自身风险承受能力相匹配的基金产品进行投资。基金管理人承诺以诚实信 用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利或本金不受损失。基金管理人、基金 托管人、基金销售机构及相关机构不对基金投资收益做出任何承诺或保证。 其次，固态电池进程超预期。目前固态电池行情加速上行，且目前估值仍处于历史洼地。从业内消息来 看，这一轮行情上涨并非单纯的资金炒作，当前固态电池技术已跨越实验室概念验证阶段，关注9-10月 工信部60亿专项中期审查（短期催化——涉及宁德时代、比亚迪等，顺利通过评估的项目将获得进一步 资金支持，并有望开启第二轮补贴申报通 ...

二是11月底电池企业招标对应2026年的要货预期，尽管当前部分电池企业已经给出2026年指引将大幅超市场预 期，但置信度仍被质疑，后续以价为基础的谈量具备可信度； 三是2026年汽车以旧换新等政策延续情况以及锂电排产信息。 当前尽管有较大预期差，但经济性带动下的储能超预期或将在明年加速，关注度提升的情况下第二波行情随时 可能出现。 编辑/Rocky 港股锂电池板块涨幅居前，截至发稿，$中创新航 (03931.HK)$涨超9%，$宁德时代 (03750.HK)$涨近6%，$赣锋 锂业 (01772.HK)$涨超3%，$天齐锂业 (09696.HK)$涨近3%。 | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌額 | 漲跌幅 = | 成交量 | 成交額 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03931 | 中創新航 | 29.260 | +2.500 | +9.34% | 762.83萬 | 2.2億 | | 03750 | 寧德時代 | 458.000 | +25.200 | +5.82% | 177.97萬 | 8.05億 | | 01772 | 脂峰理業 | ...

中信建投则认为，锂电板块已兑现2025年市场需求超预期的逻辑，当前板块核心矛盾转向2026年需求预 期能否在20%增速基础上进一步上修。后续关注三大信号：一是四季度储能招标情况，其将映射2026年 装机数据；二是11月底电池企业招标对应2026年的要货预期，尽管当前部分电池企业已经给出2026年指 引将大幅超市场预期，但置信度仍被质疑，后续以价为基础的谈量具备可信度；三是2026年汽车以旧换 新等政策延续情况以及锂电排产信息。当前尽管有较大预期差，但经济性带动下的储能超预期或将在明 年加速，关注度提升的情况下第二波行情随时可能出现。 消息面上，9月11日，摩根士丹利发布报告指出，随着宁德时代在欧洲市场取得突破，而规模较小的竞 争对手在关键的储能领域陷入盈利困局，加之当前大热的固态电池技术被视为短期炒作，宁德时代的领 先优势将得以延续，其估值在同行中已具备显著吸引力，已经成为了"行业中最便宜的"。 智通财经APP获悉，锂电池板块涨幅居前，截至发稿，中创新航(03931)涨8.59%，报29.06港元；宁德时 代(03750)涨4.9%，报454港元；赣锋锂业(01772)涨3.79%，报35.06港元；天齐锂业 ...

Group 1 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing significant gains, with companies like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium seeing notable stock price increases of 4.9% and 3.79% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights CATL's breakthrough in the European market and the struggles of smaller competitors in the energy storage sector, suggesting that CATL's leading advantage will continue and its valuation is now considered attractive compared to peers [1] - The report describes CATL as "the cheapest in the industry," indicating a strong position for potential investment [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities believes that the lithium sector has already priced in the expected market demand for 2025, with the focus now shifting to whether the demand forecast for 2026 can be revised upwards from a 20% growth rate [2] - Three key signals to watch include the fourth-quarter energy storage bidding, which will reflect 2026 installation data, and the battery companies' bidding at the end of November that corresponds to 2026 demand expectations [2] - The continuation of policies for vehicle trade-ins and lithium production scheduling in 2026 will also be critical, with expectations of accelerated energy storage demand potentially leading to a second wave of market activity [2]

Summary of Conference Call for Xingyuan Material Industry Overview - **Dry Film Separator Price Increase**: Prices for dry film separators have risen over 30% due to the influence of the China Plastics Association's anti-involution meeting, with expectations for further price increases in the future, benefiting companies like Xingyuan Material [2][5] - **Industry Supply and Demand Tightening**: By the end of 2025, the separator industry is expected to reach a state of supply-demand balance, with a potential beta market emerging in mid to late 2026, although the pace of capacity expansion among companies remains slow [2][8] Company Performance and Outlook - **Production Capacity Expansion and Overseas Layout**: The company's Boshan project has commenced production, and the Malaysia project is expected to start shipments in Q4. Once fully operational next year, overseas profit contributions are anticipated to be comparable to domestic profits, significantly enhancing the company's profit elasticity [2][6][7] - **Sales Volume Guidance**: The company expects to exceed 5 billion square meters in sales volume this year and aims for approximately 6 billion square meters next year, with the overall industry growth rate projected to remain above 20% [2][10] - **Production Line Utilization**: The wet production line is operating at full capacity, while the dry production line is utilized at about 70%. The Boshan project is fully operational, and the Malaysia project is set to begin shipments by the end of this year, contributing an estimated 600 to 800 million square meters in sales volume next year [2][11] Technological Developments - **Solid-State Battery Production Line**: A solid-state battery production line in collaboration with Zhongke Shanglan is expected to commence production in October, focusing on high-rate and high-energy density batteries with energy densities of 300-310 Wh/kg and 350 Wh/kg, respectively [3][14][15] - **Solid-State Battery Field Layout**: The company has significant technological reserves in rigid frameworks and solid-state batteries, being the exclusive supplier of rigid frameworks to Zhongke Shenlan and providing sulfide samples to several leading companies, positioning itself competitively in the solid-state battery sector [2][9] Market Dynamics - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The lithium battery industry exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, driven by strong energy storage demand, with growth rates surpassing 30%. Major players have been operating at near full capacity, indicating robust supply-demand conditions [4] - **Wet Film Separator Price Trends**: The wet film separator market is expected to trend towards tight balance by the second half of next year, potentially leading to price increases [13] Financial Insights - **Profitability of Malaysia Base**: The Malaysia base serves both international and domestic clients, with pricing 30% to 40% higher than domestic rates while maintaining comparable or lower costs due to local energy prices [12] Additional Considerations - **Investment in Electronic Skin Company**: The company has acquired an electronic skin company, currently in the early stages, with plans for further investments in promising companies to ensure shareholder value [19] - **Negotiations with VeriTec**: Specific details regarding negotiations with VeriTec cannot be disclosed at this time, with stakeholders advised to await further announcements [20] - **Solid Electrolyte Shipment and Outlook**: The oxide solid electrolyte currently has a production capacity in the hundred-ton range, with shipments at the ten-ton level, while sulfide solid electrolytes are at the ton-level shipment stage, with plans to continue as scheduled for next year [21]

再读固态电池投资机会——行情复盘与展望 20250912 摘要 中国固态电池行业正经历从半固态向全固态路线的转变，2024 年后全 固态路线因新技术驱动和低空经济需求而备受关注，尤其是在 400 瓦时 /公斤航空级锂电池量产的推动下，吸引了大量投资。 政策支持是固态电池发展的关键因素，包括 2025 年出台的新国标对固 态电池安全性的强制要求（不起火、不爆炸），以及中国政府投入 60 亿元用于全固态电池技术研发，这些政策将为行业提供重要保障。 2024 年 11 月，华为公布硫化物技术专利，宁德时代被曝拥有千人全固 态电池研发团队，引发市场对全固态电池技术的热炒，相关公司如月桂 股份和永联新材股价在两个月内翻倍。 2025 年被视为全固态电池从 0 到 1 的新征程，国轩高科发布晶石全固 态电池并实现 0.2 吉瓦时产线贯通，亿纬锂能宣布成都基地量产落地， 这些进展受到国家政策支持，目标是到 2027 年实现小规模示范性装车。 全固态电池的发展带动了设备和材料企业的增长，设备股如先导智能、 纳坤诺尔等公司表现突出，表明产业趋势已开始体现，同时，全固态电 池的发展还带来了更大的材料空间，并最终提升整个行业估值。 ...

格隆汇9月15日｜宁德时代(300750.SZ)盘初大涨近9%报353.38元，股价创2021年12月以来新高；H股涨近6%报458港元。消息面上，摩根士丹利9月11日发 布报告指，电池巨头宁德时代的行业领导地位非但没有被削弱，反而在竞争中得到进一步强化。该行认为，随着宁德时代今年上半年在欧洲电动汽车电 池市场取得突破，而规模较小的竞争对手在关键的储能领域陷入盈利困局，加之当前大热的固态电池技术被视为短期炒作，宁德时代的领先优势将得以 延续，其估值在同行中已具备显著吸引力，已经成为了"行业中最便宜的"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market related to solid-state battery concepts reflects strong investor confidence in the development of the solid-state battery industry chain, driven by some experimental products reaching the market [2][3]. Industry Overview - The solid-state battery index has risen by 16.69% in the last 20 days and over 50% year-to-date [2]. - Companies involved in solid-state battery technology, materials, and equipment have seen significant stock price increases, with Shanghai Xiba's stock rising over 40% since September [2]. - Leading manufacturers like EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech have made notable advancements, including the establishment of production bases and the development of experimental lines [3]. Technological Developments - Solid-state batteries are categorized based on electrolyte content: semi-solid (5%-10%), quasi-solid (less than 5%), and all-solid [4]. - All-solid batteries are expected to offer significant improvements in energy density, safety, and lifespan compared to traditional liquid electrolyte batteries [4]. - Current industry consensus suggests that large-scale commercial use of solid-state batteries may not occur until around 2030 [8]. Competitive Landscape - Domestic battery manufacturers face intense competition from established players like CATL and BYD, which dominate the liquid battery market [5][6]. - Many second and third-tier manufacturers are actively disclosing advancements in solid-state battery technology, while leading companies remain relatively low-key [6]. - International competitors, such as Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, are also advancing in solid-state battery technology, with plans for mass production by 2030 [8][9]. Future Projections - Major companies have set timelines for solid-state battery production, with CATL and BYD aiming for small-scale production by 2027 and larger-scale production by 2030 [7]. - The cost of solid-state batteries remains a significant hurdle, with concerns that consumer prices may not be competitive until at least 2030 [8]. - Despite the challenges, China's overall advantage in battery technology is expected to lead the way in the commercialization of solid-state batteries [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company Chuanfa Longmang has disclosed its cautious stance on solid-state batteries while acknowledging that lithium iron phosphate (LFP) can be used in their production [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Position on Solid-State Batteries - Chuanfa Longmang has repeatedly denied involvement in solid-state battery business, stating that their main products include industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, fertilizer series products, feed-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and phosphoric acid [2][3] - The company has shown a cautious attitude towards solid-state batteries, not mentioning them in their annual reports for the previous year and the current half-year report [2][3] - In the 2024 semi-annual performance briefing, the company indicated that it is closely monitoring the development trends of solid-state battery cathode materials and actively conducting research on suitable cathode materials for solid-state batteries [2] Group 2: Research and Development Insights - Research indicates that LFP is currently the best commercial cathode material, while sulfide solid electrolytes exhibit excellent lithium-ion conductivity, making the combination of LFP and sulfide solid electrolytes a promising technological pathway [5] - A study from the Chinese Academy of Sciences highlighted the development of new systems by combining LFP with sulfide solid electrolytes, addressing interface stability issues [6] - A patent from Tsinghua University Shenzhen International Graduate School revealed a method for preparing LFP cathodes that significantly enhances room temperature cycling performance, indicating potential for large-scale production [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, highlighting the shifting focus of market funds between sectors, particularly between AI computing power and new energy sectors like solid-state batteries and energy storage [2][5]. Group 1: AI Computing Power - The leading sector in the current market rally is AI computing power, with companies like Cambricon, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication showing significant growth [9][12]. - The growth in AI computing power is driven by unexpected advancements in application and computing power industries, leading to increased capital expenditures from major players like Meta, Google, and AWS [11]. - Despite the high expectations, the AI computing power sector has seen a decline in stock prices as the market digests these expectations, with companies like Cambricon facing high valuation metrics [14]. Group 2: New Energy Sector - The new energy sector, particularly solid-state batteries and energy storage, is experiencing a resurgence, although it faces challenges such as overcapacity and low prices [17][18]. - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention due to their safety and performance advantages, with companies like Gotion High-Tech and EVE Energy planning to launch new products in the coming years [21][24]. - Energy storage systems have seen record-high order volumes, indicating strong domestic demand and a shift towards independent energy storage business models [27][30]. - The photovoltaic sector is awaiting policy changes to address overcapacity issues, particularly concerning silicon material production, which is crucial for the industry's supply-demand balance [36][38]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the need for new narratives and expectations in the market, as funds shift from high-performing sectors like AI to those with potential for recovery, such as new energy [8][15]. - The solid-state battery sector still has room for growth and narrative development, while energy storage requires further confirmation through orders and tenders [41]. - The interplay between AI computing power and new energy developments illustrates the dynamic nature of market investments, with capital continuously seeking value [41].