Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is mixed with overseas and domestic factors. Domestically, the central bank's "combination punch" supports economic development, while overseas there are concerns about inflation and geopolitical situations. In the industry, it is the consumption off - season for rebar. Rebar maintains low production and low inventory, with apparent demand turning from decline to increase, but overall performance is average. The RB2605 contract is expected to be range - bound, and considering trading in the 3120 - 3200 range with attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of January 16, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3350 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 190.3 million tons (-0.74 million tons) year - on - year (-2.99 million tons) [7]. - Apparent demand turned from decline to increase, with this period's apparent demand at 190.34 million tons (+15.38 million tons) year - on - year (+5.19 million tons) [7]. - Factory inventory decreased while social inventory increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.07 million tons (-0.04 million tons) year - on - year (+12.08 million tons) [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 2.17 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 10.39 - percentage - point decrease from last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest - rate cuts due to inflation concerns, and the Trump administration's policies may increase inflation pressure. The situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support economic development, and there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke showed weakness again. Coke spot prices increased, but futures prices corrected from highs, reducing the expectation of further spot price increases [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract is range - bound, with technical support at the 3100 level. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are relatively stable [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price Movement - This week, the RB2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 82,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,047 tons. The net short position of the top 20 futures contract holders was 28,705 lots, an increase of 231 lots from last week [22]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On January 16, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Iron Ore - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged [32]. - From January 5 - 11, 2026, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.437 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 0.0194 million tons [36]. 3.2 Coking Industry - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased to 71.47% (-0.14%), and the daily average coke production was 50.01 million tons (-0.1 million tons). Coke inventory was 40.61 million tons (-3.56 million tons), and the total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons (+42.87 million tons). The available days of coking coal were 14.4 days (+0.67 days) [40]. 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude - steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The cumulative crude - steel production from January to November was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [44]. - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal production was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0149 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0353 million tons. On January 15, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - material producers was 190.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons from last week and 2.99 million tons from the same period last year [47]. - On January 15, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - material producers was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16% from last week and 0.65% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 72.97%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 17.05 percentage points [50]. - On January 15, the in - factory inventory of rebar at 137 building - material producers was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 0.0527 million tons from last week and an increase of 0.1729 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 0.0523 million tons from last week and a decrease of 0.0521 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 4.3807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0004 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1208 million tons [53]. 4.2 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the new - construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. - From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 16.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 2.7% [56]. 5. Options Market - Due to positive macro - expectations and average industry performance, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility, with bulls gaining control after a strong rebound, forming a hammer candlestick pattern that suggests a bullish outlook for the following day [1][7]. Technical Analysis - The hammer candlestick formed with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support near the 4570-4580 range, which has been tested multiple times [2][8]. - The price rebounded from a low of 4579.5, showing strong buying interest and indicating that the previous profit-taking corrections have been largely absorbed [2][8]. - Short-term indicators, such as the MACD, are showing bullish signals, with upward momentum continuing to strengthen [2][8]. Fundamental Analysis - The underlying support for gold's upward movement remains intact, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][9]. - Despite fluctuations in recent economic data, the overall market sentiment anticipates a rate cut within the year, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices [3][9]. - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold reinforces its status as a safe-haven asset, further solidifying the price floor [3][9]. - The strong performance of silver, which has recently reached historical highs, is expected to positively influence gold prices as well [3][9]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy focuses on buying on dips, particularly around the key support level of 4580, which aligns with multiple technical supports [4][10]. - The first target for upward movement is set at 4602, with a further target of 4621, which is near the upper boundary of the recent trading range [4][10]. - It is crucial to monitor the market closely for confirmation of support levels and adjust strategies accordingly to avoid potential losses from high volatility [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures prices have stabilized after a significant drop in the previous trading session, indicating a potential formation of a bullish reversal pattern [1] Group 1 - The prices are seeking to establish a higher low, which may help in rebuilding bullish momentum [1] - Support from the EMA50 moving average has contributed to price stabilization and the emergence of noticeable volatility [1] - The market is expected to experience a rebound in the upcoming trading periods [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brent crude oil futures prices have been experiencing a continuous decline, approaching the EMA50 support level, which may strengthen the bullish momentum needed for a rebound [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The short-term upward trend remains dominant, indicating potential for price recovery [1] - The relative strength index has shown signs of positive divergence after reaching the oversold territory, suggesting a possible reversal [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The oversold condition is amplified compared to price movements, indicating a potential for price correction [1] - Multiple positive resonance signals have emerged, providing overall technical support for future price recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the spot silver price experienced a decline due to the strong resistance level at $92.00, which remains intact, while silver attempts to build bullish momentum to break through this resistance [1] Group 1 - Spot silver continues to trade above the EMA50 moving average, forming dynamic support that reinforces the stability and dominance of the primary bullish trend in the short term [1] - The price of silver is moving along a trend line, and the relative strength index (RSI) has shown positive signals after digesting overbought conditions, opening up space for further upward movement in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that spot gold is experiencing volatility in recent intraday trading, with the market attempting to build new upward momentum [1] - This upward momentum is expected to help gold achieve a rebound in the near future and continue its previous profitable trend [1] - Despite the potential for a rebound, the market has been characterized by significant volatility recently [1]

Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment remains relatively stable with a calm stock market and a mild rebound in precious metals, particularly silver, which briefly rose above $91 before narrowing its decline to 2% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver experienced a significant fluctuation, initially showing a nearly 8% drop, indicating the volatility of the precious metals market [1] - The recent rebound in silver appears to be driven more by profit-taking and subsequent buying at lower levels rather than any major news [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Despite increased volatility, bullish sentiment seems to be maintained in the short term, suggesting that market participants are closely monitoring price movements [1] - All fundamental factors are already known, leaving technical analysis as the primary tool for assessing any substantial changes in the momentum of precious metals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brent crude oil futures prices experienced a significant decline during intraday trading after reaching the previously set resistance level of $66.00, indicating a necessary correction to digest prior gains and address the overbought condition reflected in the relative strength index (RSI) [1] Group 1 - The price correction is aimed at accumulating new bullish momentum, which may support a subsequent rebound and further price increases [1] - Prices remain above the EMA50 moving average, continuing to be driven by positive momentum, indicating that the primary upward trend remains dominant in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The Swiss franc is experiencing a narrow trading range against the US dollar, currently around 0.8014, with a downward trend since the beginning of the year, having recently dropped to a short-term low of 0.7970, a daily decline of 0.55% [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate and reiterated its commitment to actively participate in the foreign exchange market, indicating that the current expansionary monetary policy conditions are appropriate [1][2] - The stability of the Swiss franc against the euro is attributed to the SNB's foreign exchange interventions and zero interest rate policy, with the euro to Swiss franc exchange rate currently at 0.9287, down from 0.9395 at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The current monetary policy's stimulus effects are fully transmitted, with credit growth and money supply data reflecting the policy's impact, which supports mid-term price stability [2] - The SNB's reluctance to reintroduce negative interest rates is due to significant side effects on pension systems, reinforcing expectations of policy stability [2] - The "loose US, stable Swiss" policy framework has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Switzerland, driving the decline of the USD/CHF exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is in a short-term consolidation phase, with key support at the previous low of 0.7970 and resistance around 0.8020-0.8030 [3] - Recent trading volumes for the USD/CHF pair remain low, indicating a lack of clear market direction and a need for a breakout at key levels to confirm future trends [3] - The EUR/CHF exchange rate is expected to maintain a range between 1.08 and 1.09, showing no clear breakout signals in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, currently trading around $4634.49 per ounce, supported by robust buying and liquidity returning to the market [1] - The recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which fell short of analyst expectations, has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates this year, thereby supporting gold prices due to reduced opportunity costs [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. government's threats regarding Iran's internal unrest, are contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is maintaining an emerging rising wedge pattern, signaling a potential weakening of upward momentum, with a warning of a bearish reversal if prices break below the trend line with strong volume [2] - The 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is above the 50-day EMA, confirming a clear bullish bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions at 71.39, suggesting stretched momentum [2] - Immediate resistance is identified at the historical high of $4634.64 set on December 13, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $4650, while initial support is at the 9-day EMA of $4520.01 and further support at approximately $4470.00 [2]