1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some PDH units are expected to restart, and downstream demand is following up moderately. The main drivers for propylene in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance status of major PDH units, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure. [1][2] - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading due to high short - term geopolitical uncertainties and increased cost - side fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6205 yuan/ton (-148), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6440 yuan/ton (+10). The East China basis is 285 yuan/ton (+148), and the Shandong basis is 235 yuan/ton (+158) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 72% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 237 US dollars/ton (-15), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-12), and the import profit is - 437 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder's operating rate is 31% (-0.61%), and the production profit is - 240 yuan/ton (-10); epoxy propane's operating rate is 70% (-3%), and the production profit is - 783 yuan/ton (-328); n - butanol's operating rate is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-106); octanol's operating rate is 91% (+0%), and the production profit is 941 yuan/ton (-107); acrylic acid's operating rate is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile's operating rate is 69% (+0%), and the production profit is - 917 yuan/ton (-60); phenol - acetone's operating rate is 86% (-2%), and the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 40,470 tons (-2,320) [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年2月4日 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21569吨，环比减少2.91%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96819吨，环比增加0.24%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18691 吨，环比减少0.93%。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，空翻多。 偏多。 6、预期: 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CI ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is mixed with overseas and domestic factors. Domestically, the central bank's "combination punch" supports economic development, while overseas there are concerns about inflation and geopolitical situations. In the industry, it is the consumption off - season for rebar. Rebar maintains low production and low inventory, with apparent demand turning from decline to increase, but overall performance is average. The RB2605 contract is expected to be range - bound, and considering trading in the 3120 - 3200 range with attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of January 16, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3350 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 190.3 million tons (-0.74 million tons) year - on - year (-2.99 million tons) [7]. - Apparent demand turned from decline to increase, with this period's apparent demand at 190.34 million tons (+15.38 million tons) year - on - year (+5.19 million tons) [7]. - Factory inventory decreased while social inventory increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.07 million tons (-0.04 million tons) year - on - year (+12.08 million tons) [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 2.17 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 10.39 - percentage - point decrease from last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest - rate cuts due to inflation concerns, and the Trump administration's policies may increase inflation pressure. The situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support economic development, and there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke showed weakness again. Coke spot prices increased, but futures prices corrected from highs, reducing the expectation of further spot price increases [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract is range - bound, with technical support at the 3100 level. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are relatively stable [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price Movement - This week, the RB2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 82,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,047 tons. The net short position of the top 20 futures contract holders was 28,705 lots, an increase of 231 lots from last week [22]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On January 16, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton. This week, the rebar spot price was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Upstream Market 3.1 Iron Ore - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged [32]. - From January 5 - 11, 2026, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.437 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 0.0194 million tons [36]. 3.2 Coking Industry - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased to 71.47% (-0.14%), and the daily average coke production was 50.01 million tons (-0.1 million tons). Coke inventory was 40.61 million tons (-3.56 million tons), and the total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons (+42.87 million tons). The available days of coking coal were 14.4 days (+0.67 days) [40]. 4. Industry Situation 4.1 Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude - steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The cumulative crude - steel production from January to November was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [44]. - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal production was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0149 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0353 million tons. On January 15, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - material producers was 190.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons from last week and 2.99 million tons from the same period last year [47]. - On January 15, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - material producers was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16% from last week and 0.65% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 94 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 72.97%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 17.05 percentage points [50]. - On January 15, the in - factory inventory of rebar at 137 building - material producers was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 0.0527 million tons from last week and an increase of 0.1729 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 0.0523 million tons from last week and a decrease of 0.0521 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 4.3807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0004 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1208 million tons [53]. 4.2 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the new - construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. - From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 16.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 2.7% [56]. 5. Options Market - Due to positive macro - expectations and average industry performance, the market may be range - bound. A strategy of simultaneously selling out - of - the - money call and put options is recommended [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.02%，环比增加.080个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为30.22%，环比增加.439个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为35.4%，环比减少 0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为66.43%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为81.53%，环比增加0.780个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC 出口价格价格不占优势；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-633.67元/吨，亏损环比减少11.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润 为-192.09元/吨，亏损环比减少31 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [3] - Methanol: Bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure, with many varieties facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related challenges. Some varieties are facing supply surpluses, while others are affected by weakening cost support and uncertain demand prospects [1][3][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.49%, and SC down 0.70% [7][8] - **Key drivers**: The supply surplus persists, with global crude oil inventories accelerating accumulation. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and geopolitical factors may impact the market [9] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: US oil rig count increased, and global demand is expected to grow slightly in the future. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic reserve inventories changed [10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [11] LPG - **Market performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [13] - **Key drivers**: The downward trend of crude oil prices drags down LPG, and inventory accumulation adds downward pressure [14] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Refinery production increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but inventory is rising [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] L - **Market performance**: The price of L contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [17] - **Key drivers**: Cost support weakens, and the market is in a contango structure. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weakening [19] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic production starts to pick up seasonally, and port arrivals are sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing [19] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of L [6400 - 6550] [19] PP - **Market performance**: The price of PP contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [21] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and PDH device maintenance willingness is low. Inventory pressure is high, and demand is entering the off - season [23] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The parking ratio is declining, and there are few maintenance plans in the future. The OPEC+ production increase cycle may lead to further oil price declines [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Consider arbitrage strategies. Focus on the range of PP [6100 - 6250] and propylene [5600 - 5750] [23] PVC - **Market performance**: The price of PVC contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [24] - **Key drivers**: The market is at a discount to the spot, and the high - production - low - profit situation persists. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of northwest devices [26] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Up - middle stream inventory remains high, and demand is in the off - season. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is being compressed [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term; wait for inventory to decline for long - term long positions. Focus on the range of V [4200 - 4350] [26] PTA - **Market performance**: The price of PTA contracts increased, and spreads and processing fees changed [27] - **Key drivers**: Processing fees are low, and device maintenance intensity is high. Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is expected to weaken [28] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Multiple domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, and downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Focus on the range of TA [4580 - 4670] [29] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market performance**: The price of MEG contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [30] - **Key drivers**: Domestic and overseas device loads decreased, but demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [31] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or reduced load, downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. Social inventory is slightly accumulating [31] - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [3540 - 3630] [32] Methanol - **Market performance**: The price of methanol contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [33] - **Key drivers**: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the cost support weakens. Supply pressure is large, and demand changes little [34] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, overseas devices are reducing load, and port inventory is gradually decreasing. Demand from MTO and traditional downstream industries has different trends [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract, and look for low - buying opportunities on the 05 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 [2011 - 2075] [36] Urea - **Market performance**: The price of urea contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [37] - **Key drivers**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening, and supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is short - term good but lacks sustainability [38] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Urea daily production is high, but some gas - head enterprises will stop for maintenance. Demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is increasing, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [39] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Focus on the range of UR [1620 - 1650] [40] Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On December 10, the NG main contract closed at 4.595 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.46% [43] - **Key drivers**: Demand enters the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the current supply is relatively abundant, putting pressure on the price [44] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms decreased, US production is expected to be stable, and inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.021 - 4.406] [45] Asphalt - **Market performance**: On December 11, the BU main contract closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [47] - **Key drivers**: The price is mainly affected by the decline of crude oil prices and the weak supply - demand situation [48] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: December refinery production is expected to decline, demand is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing [48] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2850 - 2950] [49] Glass - **Market performance**: The price of glass contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [51] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the industrial outlook is weak. Supply is difficult to shrink significantly, and demand is weak [53] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: A production line in East China restarted, and the daily melting volume remained stable. Real - estate - related demand is weak, and inventory is high [53] - **Strategy recommendation**: Bearish in the short - term, wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [930 - 980] [53] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The price of soda ash contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [55] - **Key drivers**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly, the basis weakened, and warehouse receipts remained high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is insufficient [57] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Factory inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and a large - scale device is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The cold - repair expectation of float glass increases [57] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of SA [1080 - 1130] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of propylene remains loose, and the cost - side support is limited. The overall propylene start - up continues at a high level, but the downstream start - up weakens. The price rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term, waiting for marginal device maintenance [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 5819 yuan/ton (+1), the spot price in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+10), and in North China is 6090 yuan/ton (+40). The basis in East China is 181 yuan/ton (+9), and in North China is 125 yuan/ton (+19). The start - up rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 187 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 54 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 353 yuan/ton (-10), and the in - plant inventory is 47890 tons (-1080) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The start - up rate of PP powder is 40% (-1.98%), and the production profit is - 340 yuan/ton (-40); the start - up rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+1%), and the production profit is - 190 yuan/ton (-93); the start - up rate of n - butanol is 74% (-8%), and the production profit is 442 yuan/ton (-45); the start - up rate of octanol is 74% (-7%), and the production profit is 693 yuan/ton (-29); the start - up rate of acrylic acid is 78% (+1%), and the production profit is 415 yuan/ton (-7); the start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is - 606 yuan/ton (-78); the start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 82% (+1%), and the production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (-150) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: Dongguan Juzhengyuan and Shandong Binhuahua's PDH devices are expected to restart. The phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance is not obvious, and the overall propylene start - up continues at a high level. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device has not restarted yet. The external sales volume of propylene products may continue to increase [2] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream start - up weakens. Considering the rising propylene price and the pressure on downstream profits, the price difference between PP and propylene narrows. Downstream is resistant to high - priced raw materials. Some main powder devices reduce the load or stop. The start - up of the main downstream PP powder decreases month - on - month. The profit of propylene oxide is acceptable, and the downstream is mainly for phased replenishment. Affected by the maintenance of Luxi and Satellite's butanol and octanol devices, the start - up rate of butanol and octanol decreases significantly. In the later stage, the downstream cost pressure still restricts the recovery of demand [2] - **Cost side**: International oil prices tend to fluctuate, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The price of external propane has been strong recently. Pay attention to the cost - side disturbances recently [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Due to insufficient supply - demand drive, the rebound space may be limited. It will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term, waiting for marginal device maintenance [2] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided 3.4 Directory - related Charts - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes charts such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, etc. [3][5][7] - **Propylene production profit and start - up rate**: Includes charts such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, etc. [3][15][17] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Includes charts such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, etc. [3][27][28] - **Propylene downstream profit and start - up rate**: Includes charts such as PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, etc. [3][35][36] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes charts such as propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [3][61][62]

2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为93764元/吨，日环比减少0.52%,生产所得为-1810元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为92638元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-2982元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿 石端，盈利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned output of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - Overall, due to factors such as reduced supply pressure, low demand, and weakened cost support, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, production decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume increased, reducing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt and related products is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating that the overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit is negative and increasing, the delayed coking profit is increasing, the profit difference is increasing, and crude oil is weakening, so the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing, while the in - factory inventory and port inventory are increasing [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price is 3058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.43%; the social inventory is 82.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from January 1 to December 31, 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from January 3 to November 21, 2020 - 2025 are presented, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are presented, providing a reference for price comparison [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from January 2 to December 27, 2020 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from January 1 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 is presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the supply situation in the market [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from January 3 to December 30, 2021 - 2025 is shown, which is important for understanding the supply of raw materials [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from January 1, 2019 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from January 1 to December 26, 2018 - 2025 are shown, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [53][54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from January 3 to December 27, 2021 - 2025 is shown, indicating the production efficiency of the industry [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the supply adjustment of the industry [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from January 2 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [64][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from January 3 to December 23, 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall inventory situation [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the inventory turnover [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from January 1 to December 26, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the import cost [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from January 1 to December 25, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical开工率 of construction asphalt, modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 is shown, which is related to different application scenarios of asphalt [98][99]. - **Downstream开工率**: The historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand in the downstream market [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is provided, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [105][106].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways at the bottom [4] - Urea: Short on rallies [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Core Views - Crude oil: The oversupply in the off - season remains the core driver, and the upside of oil prices is under pressure. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, and OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and then pause in early next year. With the start of the consumption off - season and OPEC+ still in the expansion cycle, the pressure of oversupply is rising, and oil prices face significant downward pressure [2]. - LPG: Weak oil prices bring negative impacts to the cost side, and the trend of LPG is weak. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side pressure restricts its upward movement [2]. - L: The decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient, with weak cost support [2]. - PP: The sharp decline in coking coal and the weak cost side lead to a weak fundamental situation. There is high pressure to destock, and oil prices still face the risk of further decline in the medium term [2]. - PVC: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space. The market maintains a high premium, and industries are advised to hedge at high prices [2]. - PX: The supply - side devices have increased their loads, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [2]. - PTA: The processing fee is generally low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the rebound height may be limited due to the pressure on crude oil [4]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. It has low valuation but lacks upward drivers [4]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [4]. - Urea: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. It is necessary to be vigilant against the downward risk [4]. - Natural gas: As the temperature drops, the consumption peak season arrives, and the demand has a warming expectation, making gas prices likely to rise and difficult to fall [7]. - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price has回调ed, and the supply - demand fundamentals are loose. The demand has entered the off - season, and the valuation is high. The price center still has room to move down [7]. - Glass: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - Soda ash: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. WTI rose 1.43%, Brent rose 1.72%, and SC fell 0.17% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season, and the short - term driver is OPEC's prediction of oversupply in 2026. OPEC predicts an increase of 600,000 barrels per day in non - OPEC production in 2026, and the global demand increments in 2025 and 2026 are 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5.924 million barrels per day [10][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, although the short - term trend is strong, the upward pressure is increasing. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions. Pay attention to the range of [460 - 475] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 12, the PG main contract closed at 4,349 yuan/ton, up 0.39% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has shown some resilience. The inventory in ports and factories has declined, and the import profit has increased, with expected higher future imports [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the central price is expected to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a low basis and high valuation. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,788 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The basis and other indicators also had corresponding changes [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, with weak cost support [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, partially reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed accordingly [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in coking coal leads to a weak fundamental situation. The inventory in the upper and middle reaches is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices face the risk of further decline in the medium term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, short - term decline stops, and short positions can be reduced. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing from a high level. In the short - term, during the macro - policy window period, the market returns to weak fundamentals. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a high premium. Industries are advised to hedge at high prices. Be cautious when chasing short due to low - valuation support. Pay attention to the range of [4500 - 4650] for V [28]. PX - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have increased their loads. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose, and PX follows the cost in the short term [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up on a single - side trade. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the downstream processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6770] for PX [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of TA contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, showed corresponding changes [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Although the fundamentals have improved in the short term, the upward space is limited due to the pressure on crude oil [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: On a single - side trade, look for opportunities to go long on dips. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the TA processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [4600 - 4670] for TA [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of EG contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but it lacks upward drivers and follows the cost in the short term [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3835 - 3900] for EG [36]. Methanol - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a weak sideways trend. Hold short positions cautiously at low valuations. For arbitrage, pay attention to the MA1 - 3 reverse spread [4]. Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. There are short - term positive factors, but be vigilant against the downward risk [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the export boosts market sentiment, the fundamentals remain weak. Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling back after rising. Pay attention to the range of [1620 - 1650] for UR [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 12, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.47% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions also changed [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The decline in global temperature leads to an increase in demand for combustion and heating, and the gas price is likely to rise. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply - side has some changes, and the demand has shown certain characteristics. The US natural gas inventory has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the temperature cools down, the demand for combustion and heating increases, and the price is likely to rise. However, due to sufficient supply and recent sharp increases, the upward momentum has weakened, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to the range of [4.415 - 4.581] for NG [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 12, the BU main contract closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The cost - side support is decreasing. The supply in November is expected to decline, and the demand has also decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [51] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is support from cold repairs. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Go short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a premium structure. Industries are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. Technically, it is bullish in the short term, but go short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The cost is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4547 - 4597 [7][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The basis on November 11 showed that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which was neutral. The inventory situation was mixed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the social inventory increasing, also being neutral. The disk showed a bearish signal as the MA20 was downward and the 01 contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [7][9]. - The main logic was the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points included the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, the PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The calcium carbide method enterprise production was 345350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and the ethylene method enterprise production was 146770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, but higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had different start - up rate changes, with some decreasing and some remaining flat or increasing. The shipping cost was expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price was competitive, but the current demand might remain weak [5]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling might be under pressure [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The factory inventory was 334596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 84200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. The social inventory was 545700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The production enterprise inventory days were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65% [9]. 3.2.5 Position - The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provided detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [14][15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It included the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures [17][20][21]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It covered the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impact on PVC production [26][29][31][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply - It showed the capacity utilization rate, production profit, and production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40]. 3.5.3 PVC Demand - It analyzed the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment [43][45][47]. 3.5.4 PVC Inventory - It presented the inventory data of the exchange, calcium carbide method factory, ethylene method factory, and social inventory, as well as the production enterprise inventory days [54][55]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It included the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [56][57]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It showed the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC, presenting the supply - demand trends [60].